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Lottery Standings

Stoked said:
Detroit and GS are tied record wise. Detroit has Cleveland coming to town tonight. Crap...
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We want Detroit to win against Cleveland and Toronto. NJ also plays Toronto so at least one of those teams also pulls ahead of GS.

It comes down to hoping NO or SA outsucks GS the last 2 games of the season. Those are going to be very ugly games. Perhaps GS will win by accident and Lacob will execute one of his D-Leaguers for playing too hard.

Alternately, we have to hope GS finishes in a tie for 6th/7th and loses the coin flip, then one team jumps ahead in the lottery drawing. Two teams passing them up if they're in the #6 spot is statistically remote.
 
GlassEater said:
We want Detroit to win against Cleveland and Toronto. NJ also plays Toronto so at least one of those teams also pulls ahead of GS.

It comes down to hoping NO or SA outsucks GS the last 2 games of the season. Those are going to be very ugly games. Perhaps GS will win by accident and Lacob will execute one of his D-Leaguers for playing too hard.

Alternately, we have to hope GS finishes in a tie for 6th/7th and loses the coin flip, then one team jumps ahead in the lottery drawing. Two teams passing them up if they're in the #6 spot is statistically remote.
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Either way it is going to be close.
 
So, statistically, what are the chances a team below 7 jumps to the top 3, thereby bumping the 7th to 8 in this example?
 
the combined chances of teams 8 through 14 at getting any of the three lottery spots is 29.5%. (any ties could change tht a little bit.)
 
Verlin said:
The Detroit win was good. They were going to pass gs anyways and this put cleveland out of reach.
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I hope you're right, because I wanted New Jersey to pass and Detroit to tank. NJ has no reason to lose, but Detroit still has its pick.
 
Weezur said:
I hope you're right, because I wanted New Jersey to pass and Detroit to tank. NJ has no reason to lose, but Detroit still has its pick.
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That's not true. The still have a significant chance to keep their pick (top 3 protected). And winning just one game could bump them up several spots, dramatically reducing their chance to keep the pick.
 
default said:
I just tried that lottery and the Jazz's own pick went up to #3 where we took Michael Kidd Gilchrist. The Golden state pick dropped to #9 where we picked Kendall Marshall. Although extremely unlikely, it would be among the best drafts for the Jazz ever.
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Only way we're winning a championship in 3 years.
 
tonight's gsw-related rooting guide (home team asterisked):

sixers over cavs* (not too worried about the cavs catching up, but just in case)
hawks* over pistons (currently 68-34 before halftime)
heat* over raptors
knicks over nets*
grizz* over hornets (again, just to be sure)
spurs over king* ( " " )
warriors* over lakers (hey, i can dream...)
 
Good night so far with the Nets, Raptors and Pistons all down by double-digits. Lakers are without Bryant and by god, that's a good thing.
 
Avery said:
Good night so far with the Nets, Raptors and Pistons all down by double-digits. Lakers are without Bryant and by god, that's a good thing.
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Even without Kobe, it's hard to see GS beating the Lakers. BUT, even in the tankfest, I have to believe that every team wants to beat the Lakers. If the Warriors hang in there a while, I'd like to think they have some chance.

Am I just being a draft-pick homer? Maybe, but Accuscore gives the Warriors a 34% chance. I've seen worse.
 
theNBAnerd said:
tonight's gsw-related rooting guide (home team asterisked):

sixers over cavs* - check
hawks* over pistons check
heat* over raptors - check
knicks over nets* - check
grizz* over hornets - almost check (21 pt lead in 4th)
spurs over kings*
warriors* over lakers (hey, i can dream...)
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so far so good.

also, one can hope that being on national TV will remind the warriors that they can't blatantly tank tonight. maybe they'll at least try and lose by 15 instead of mailing it in and losing by 37.
 
theNBAnerd said:
so far so good.

also, one can hope that being on national TV will remind the warriors that they can't blatantly tank tonight. maybe they'll at least try and lose by 15 instead of mailing it in and losing by 37.
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I'm just hoping they accidentally win against New Orleans or vs. SA when the Spurs rest all their starters. Naw, check that...the 10th-14th players on the Spurs' roster are good enough to win over the Warriors...even if the W's were actually trying!
 
davidbenoit said:
That's not true. The still have a significant chance to keep their pick (top 3 protected). And winning just one game could bump them up several spots, dramatically reducing their chance to keep the pick.
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Washington, Hornets, Charlotte will be the 3 worst records. You're right in the sense that the probability they GET the 3rd pick is improved.
The other reason NJ doesn't want to lose is so that they can convince Deron that they're a winnin.............nevermind, you're right.
 
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