Milsap's fouls
- Thread starter zman1527
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D
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This. As bad as Al+Favors is, Al+Sap I would totally bet is far, far worse defensively.
GVC
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Fesenko played limited minutes against subs; Millsap plays big minutes against starters. When Millsap and Al are on the court at the same time, their numbers are equivalent (On-Court). Consequently, Millsap's On-Court/Off-Court superiority (v. Jefferson) can only be explained through Al/Sap playing with other frontcourt players. That is, the Jazz have been better defensively with Millsap/Favors+Millsap/Kanter (and other frontcourt combos featuring Millsap but not Al) than with Al/Favors+Al/Kanter. Given the low number of minutes Kanter played last season, and his virtually even On-Court/Off-Court team defense numbers, it's a near certainty that Favors/Millsap was a hell of a lot better defensively than Favors/Al last season (obviously, without controlling for the other 3 dudes on the court).
Basketball is a team game. Unfortunately, the average fan seems completely unable to grasp team dynamics, and the piss-poor boxscore doesn't help. It's not a coincidence Millsap was 2nd in the NBA in adjusted +/- last season, and 5th over the last 2 (I don't know the methodology used to compute these stats, and suspect confidence intervals are HUGE).
Of course, as you've shown repeatedly in the past, you're not particularly analytical.
What are you trying to argue? Do you really think the Jazz were worse defensively with Fesenko than with Boozer/Memo?
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D
Deleted member 848
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A few things here:
First off: the Fesenko comment was a joke. A rather obvious one, I thought. It was largely a nod to IGS, who robotically repeated his Sloan-bashing and Fesenko-hailing ad nauseam. I remember he used to post stats like these all the time to justify the fact that he should be playing 30mpg, while refusing to acknowledge his fouling rate, as well as his (lack-of) offense. No **** he's a better defender than Memo and Boozer. Your comment asking me what I'm trying to argue is ironic, seeing as my post really initiated no sort of argument to begin with. You legitimately put an entire essay of words into my mouth.
Specifically, I have no idea who you're talking to with all of your Millsap vs Al's defense arguments. In my post responding to Ben10, I said Favors + Al > Millsap + Al defensively. I said absolutely nothing about comparing Al vs Millsap defensively. Obviously Millsap is the better overall defender, and I have bashed Al's defense consistently over the past 6 months or so. Not sure where you've been.
This is probably the most ridiculous case of argumentative reaching I have seen in a while. I typed an 8 word post that was (fairly-clearly) said in jest, and you whipped out an entire essay trying to tell me that Fesenko is a better defender than Memo and Boozer, and that Millsap is a much better defender than Al (even resorting to use a relatively worthless statistic in +/-)
Yet you have the nerve to call me repeatedly non-analytical? What? Can you please point out some instances of my repeated lack of analytical skills?
GVC
Well-Known Member
I misread your post. I thought you were comparing Favors+Al to Favors+Sap. My bad (I've since eaten, and can now see a little more clearly).
FWIW, I found the stats for the comparison I thought you were making (but weren't):
Last season Favors/Sap allowed 87.97 points per 48 minutes, Al/Favors allowed 91.99 points per 48 minutes (NBA.com +/- 2 player combinations). There was little different in possessions per minute between the 3 players for the season, according to some number crunching using 82games.com's stats.
Beyond that, given your history of snark, I took your comment as dismissive of the stats I posted. Was that really not your intention?
GVC
Well-Known Member
Unfortunately, the Kanter-Favors combo was so big a net negative last season that I can't see how they performed defensively last season (nba.com only has the top 50 2 man combinations). With that said, Favors-Millsap allowed only 87.97 points per 48 minutes, and Kanter-Millsap allowed only 84.49 points per 48 minutes. For the season (all combos), Favors allowed 94.94 points per 48 minutes and Kanter allowed 95.95 points per 48 minutes. Both Favors AND Kanter were likely better defensively with Millsap than with each other (without adjusting for other teammates...if anyone has more comprehensive stats, I'd love a link).
D
Deleted member 848
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OK, thats cool. Not really a large surprise in any sense, Millsap is obviously the better overall defender than Al. If anything, it's crazy how well Favors seems to mask Al's team-defensive deficiencies according to these statistics (which I tend to take with a grain of salt).
My intention was honestly just to joke. Im completely serious. Yes, part of the joke was to dismissive towards your stats, but I was just being facetious.
Still, I'm surprised you said all of this, before finally capping off the post by saying that I routinely don't know what I am talking about. But anywho.
GVC
Well-Known Member
The Jazz were outscored by 7.14 points per 48 minutes with Kanter on the floor last season. Kanter-Favors and Kanter-Jefferson were also outscored by opponents. Kanter-Millsap, however, outscored opponents by 5.6 points per 48 minutes (albeit in only 145 minutes).
GVC
Well-Known Member
This surprises you? I was out of line, but certainly not out of character. I'll try to be nicer.
This is my observation/opinion about the whole Sap drama.
What the on floor vs off floor stats can help tell us is a mix of a player's overall defense, help defense, and offensive effectiveness.
My opinion of why Millsap has good on vs off floor numbers is he is a good help defender, and he puts effort into things most of the time. Many times I have seen him leave his guy to help when someone gets beat and nobody helps on his guy which gives his guy a chance for an easy bucket. This may tweak stats when we are looking at how effective the guy he was supposed to defend was in the game. It's a beautiful thing to see the whole team playing better defense "helping the helper" as we saw more of last year. My point... Millsap is a better defender than he gets credit for.
I'm looking forward to seeing some of these lineups this year. Kanter/Favors/Millsap... and Kanter/Favors/Marv... and a few other variations including Foye, Mo, Hayward, and Burks.
I'm almost as excited to see what they do defensively as I am to see any offensive firepower thy have, or 3pt shots and percentages.
GVC, I'm with you and I hear you on this.
What the on floor vs off floor stats can help tell us is a mix of a player's overall defense, help defense, and offensive effectiveness.
My opinion of why Millsap has good on vs off floor numbers is he is a good help defender, and he puts effort into things most of the time. Many times I have seen him leave his guy to help when someone gets beat and nobody helps on his guy which gives his guy a chance for an easy bucket. This may tweak stats when we are looking at how effective the guy he was supposed to defend was in the game. It's a beautiful thing to see the whole team playing better defense "helping the helper" as we saw more of last year. My point... Millsap is a better defender than he gets credit for.
I'm looking forward to seeing some of these lineups this year. Kanter/Favors/Millsap... and Kanter/Favors/Marv... and a few other variations including Foye, Mo, Hayward, and Burks.
I'm almost as excited to see what they do defensively as I am to see any offensive firepower thy have, or 3pt shots and percentages.
GVC, I'm with you and I hear you on this.
GVC
Well-Known Member
I'd go even further. The oft forgotten part of the game is transition O and D (frank and dal's past statements about the Jazz O being so efficient BECAUSE of Al's ISO game ignored entirely how good the Jazz scored in transition last season for example). Millsap is an absolute stud in both areas at his position. Al is among the worst transition players in the league (yes, this is entirely subjective, as I've yet to find any on-court/off-court transition stats).
Good point. I overlooked the transition, which will be huge with the Jazz this season. We need bigs that can get up and down the floor, like Sap, Favors... and inexplicably... Kanter. He's been moving pretty well, and I know it's only the preseason. I'm hoping it holds up in the real games.
I want to see this at some point this year
Burks
Hayward
Marvin
Kanter
Favors
I know, I know, no PG, lots of turnovers, etc.
Obviously would be a lineup pretty poor at executing in the half-court, but should be quite formidable defensively, especially if Burks is locked in on that end.
Of course this lineup will not happen this season, but I think it would be fun to watch personally. Would probably be more athleticism on the floor at one time than the Jazz have ever had. Big and fast, and would generate more fastbreak points than any other combination.
Burks
Hayward
Marvin
Kanter
Favors
I know, I know, no PG, lots of turnovers, etc.
Obviously would be a lineup pretty poor at executing in the half-court, but should be quite formidable defensively, especially if Burks is locked in on that end.
Of course this lineup will not happen this season, but I think it would be fun to watch personally. Would probably be more athleticism on the floor at one time than the Jazz have ever had. Big and fast, and would generate more fastbreak points than any other combination.
GVC
Well-Known Member
Mo, Earl, Carroll, Evans and Millsap also run the floor well above average at their respective positions. I'll be more surprised if the Jazz finish outside the top 5 in fastbreak points than if they finish in the top 2 (with Denver).
fishonjazz
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GVC
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They were 5th last season, and have made getting out in transition a point of emphasis this season. Having Marvin and Randy instead of Josh and Raja should help too.
billyshelby
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Sap's fouling doesn't concern me at all.