My faith in Exum has been broken

[Saint Cy of JFC]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yc3h_YZh6wk

@ 0:55 is what I think is one of his only pull up mid range makes of his career. It looked OK to me. It could be a little faster, but I dont think it's broken or anything that should hold him back.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PpvbU5cl_C4
@ :56 another mid-range pull-up.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

The thing is, that with our team, a Dante Exum pull-up shot will almost always be a waste of a possession, so he doesn't do them. It's why he needs to go to the D-League so he can have more freedom to try these kind of things.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

It is loaded up slow and too far in front of him.. the follow through is fine. I think he becomes a reliable spot up shooter, but I'm not sure if he ever gets decent off the dribble.

Ingles shot is slow but it is high and over his head.

Maybe, but Dante being able to get his shot off hasnt been a problem in the NBA at all.

 

[NAOS]

It's not the ACL. I expected him to struggle overall and all I wanted to see was some progression in aggressiveness(which he has done) and skill development(which I would contend he has done ZERO of). I didn't expect him to be useless with ball in his hands. And he is useless. Against any sort of pressure he coughs it up like a Pez dispenser. He cannot break a single defender, let alone split a double team. His handle is bad. Have you seen a good PG with straight up bad handle? His ball security is horrible. And he has no off-the-dribble pull up game. Like AT ALL!! ZERO! List me the successful PGs in the modern game without ANY sort of pull up game. Hell even horrible shooters like Elfrid Payton and Rondo pull up every now and then from the elbow.

Those are the two things that scare me most about his future right now - bad handle for a point guard and zero mid-range game and pull up game in general. And the worst thing is - with his type of shot, I really don't know how he will develop a pull up game. His is a set shot. I don't think you can be even remotely successful in the pull up game with this type of mechanics.

So yeah, to the person above who said "he's still young". Yes he is... the problem is that I don't even see a path for him to be a good PG offensively. To me he seems like an off guard, who cannot shoot. He is in essence slightly better offensively Andre Roberson(hopefully he gets as good defensively as Roberson is).

I've received a pretty tepid response around here when I flame Exum for the non-development of his handle and his shot, fyi. Just a few good/critical posters agree.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Sorry, but the premise of this thread is retarded. Because you saw Frank do well in some U18 games you stop believing in Exum? Exum also dominated U19 games and looked quite impressive.

 

[stitches]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yc3h_YZh6wk

@ 0:55 is what I think is one of his only pull up mid range makes of his career. It looked OK to me. It could be a little faster, but I dont think it's broken or anything that should hold him back.

Yeah, those are the two I thought of this year... but come on... this is not serious. You can find anybody shooting a midranger. The question is can he pull it off with any regularity? My contention is that with the way his shot is set up(+the fact that it's a horrible shot to begin with), will lead to him not being able to find a consistent pullup game. His career stats so far from mid-range are:

10-16 feet: 3% of his shots, hits them at 19% clip
16-3p line: 9% of his shots, hits them at 25% clip

I'm willing to bet any starting PG in the league shoots BOTH more and at higher%. Just checked Elfrid Payton who's one of the worst shooters in the league from the Pg spot(10%->35% and 11%->31%)...

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Maybe, but Dante being able to get his shot off hasnt been a problem in the NBA at all.

He does not really try to shoot... and I think defenses give him space to get a shot off sometimes on purpose... The AK defense.

It may not hurt him too much, but it is something I've noticed as well. The loose handle is more worrisome and the completely passive mentality is maybe even more worrisome. I know Quin didn't help matters but some of those things are not really taught... they can be improved but there has to be a little of that.

The Frank video is not much to base an opinion off of, but he seems to be a floor leader and his defensive length seems to have a bigger impact. Jumper form is strong.

 

[Jazz4ever]

The coaches and have media have been telling him be more aggressive but I think it's actually hurting him. He is a high IQ player but this year is playing like he's just wants to please everyone else. In his rookie year he was a wallflower, but we did all marvel at his high basketball IQ and passing ability. This year that's gone he's only at 1.6 assists a game. For instance I don't think he takes this shot in his rookie year, it's a low IQ decision with one of the best shot blockers in the league looming.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dT9orsFohUM

Maybe it's a necessary step in his growth....idk. His RPM is - 3.81, nearly last for point guards (down there with Trey Burke). It was much higher his rookie year.
Maybe we should just accept he's a Ricky Rubio type and let him develop on his own?

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Yeah, those are the two I thought of this year... but come on... this is not serious. You can find anybody shooting a midranger. The question is can he pull it off with any regularity? My contention is that with the way his shot is set up(+the fact that it's a horrible shot to begin with), will lead to him not being able to find a consistent pullup game. His career stats so far from mid-range are:

10-16 feet: 3% of his shots, hits them at 19% clip
16-3p line: 9% of his shots, hits them at 25% clip

I'm willing to bet any starting PG in the league shoots BOTH more and at higher%. Just checked Elfrid Payton who's one of the worst shooters in the league from the Pg spot(10%->35% and 11%->31%)...

His shot sucks, but it's probably more of a comfort/confidence level than mechanical issues. We are pointing to him shooting slow, but his shots are always wide open so he has no incentive to really speed up his shot.

https://3ball.io/dante-exum/0021600427_493
https://3ball.io/dante-exum/0021600427_479

Both of these shots look good on his release. He takes his time, but the motions are solid and he gets good arc on each shot.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

The coaches and have media have been telling him be more aggressive but I think it's actually hurting him. He is a high IQ player but this year is playing like he's just wants to please everyone else. In his rookie year he was a wallflower, but we did all marvel at his high basketball IQ and passing ability. This year that's gone he's only at 1.6 assists a game. For instance I don't think he takes this shot in his rookie year, it's a low IQ decision with one of the best shot blockers in the league looming.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dT9orsFohUM

Maybe it's a necessary step in his growth....idk. His RPM is - 3.81, nearly last for point guards (down there with Trey Burke). It was much higher his rookie year.
Maybe we should just accept he's a Ricky Rubio type and let him develop on his own?

How is shooting a floater over a shot blocker a low iQ move? He just didnt get it high enough. I dont see that as low IQ, I just see it as he has a limited offensive repertoire and he is learning.

 

[stitches]

How is shooting a floater over a shot blocker a low iQ move? He just didnt get it high enough. I dont see that as low IQ, I just see it as he has a limited offensive repertoire and he is learning.

Yeah, I don't mind a floater here. I mind THIS floater. This is an embarrassment of a floater if I've ever seen one. This is another thing I'm not sure with Dante - his touch... it doesn't look good on layups and floaters... looks awkward... a lot of things with him look awkward. I don't know.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Dante playing more means us losing more... Dante needs to play more to develop... I'm not sure D League reps are enough. If he is only able to get in the D League this year we think he's a starter next year?

Clearly he is not a starter next year if we aren't taking a big step back. Where will we get validation that he is going to be good/great if he doesn't play. I don't see this basketball savant others are seeing... Even AB makes some cool passes here and there... AB is not a savant.

What exactly does Exum hang his hat on? What is his great skill or attribute? Length... cool if he is a good enough floor leader to play pg... otherwise he's average. He's fast... I guess there is that. Ish Smith is fast too.

I think he's an NBA player but the gap between what he is now and an all-star is much wider than the gap between him and being a bust(or just a rotation player). Someone will talk themselves into at least $10M per on him... he won't be cheap. Please tell me the plausible scenario where he becomes good for us where we don't take a significant $$$ gamble that may cost us other better players.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Yeah, I don't mind a floater here. I mind THIS floater. This is an embarrassment of a floater if I've ever seen one. This is another thing I'm not sure with Dante - his touch... it doesn't look good on layups and floaters... looks awkward... a lot of things with him look awkward. I don't know.

He looks like some of the 3rd and 4th graders I've coached. Like it's the first time he's done it. His layups have been much better this year... I will give him that.

 

[Cappy_Smurf]

He won't be cheap... will get paid on potential... we don't have the money to carry him as a developing player... he will need to be good by his next deal.

I thought I was over-reacting, but Stitches is pretty even and him being in the boat is making me feel even worse about Exum.

Unless he makes some big jump next year, nobody is throwing a ton of money at him. With the position Utah is in, Dante could struggle to get minutes the next year and a half. If that happens, Utah should be able to retain him on a reasonable contract. I wouldn't be surprised to see him go to the D-league once Hill and Burks is back.

 

[Cappy_Smurf]

Dante playing more means us losing more... Dante needs to play more to develop... I'm not sure D League reps are enough. If he is only able to get in the D League this year we think he's a starter next year?

Clearly he is not a starter next year if we aren't taking a big step back. Where will we get validation that he is going to be good/great if he doesn't play. I don't see this basketball savant others are seeing... Even AB makes some cool passes here and there... AB is not a savant.

What exactly does Exum hang his hat on? What is his great skill or attribute? Length... cool if he is a good enough floor leader to play pg... otherwise he's average. He's fast... I guess there is that. Ish Smith is fast too.

I think he's an NBA player but the gap between what he is now and an all-star is much wider than the gap between him and being a bust(or just a rotation player). Someone will talk themselves into at least $10M per on him... he won't be cheap. Please tell me the plausible scenario where he becomes good for us where we don't take a significant $$$ gamble that may cost us other better players.

10 million IS cheap. Anyway, I've never seen Dante as a potential super star, but I do believe he's going to be a solid player. Hell, he's already been a starter on a winning team during his rookie season, despite having no offensive game, simply because he could play defense and understood his role on offense.

 

[str8line]

The Enigma.

I agree with everyone here.

 

[str8line]

I think watching Frank Ntilikina last couple of days broke my confidence in Exum. He's everything I wanted Exum to be + more. And the more I watched him the more I realized he has things that Exum never had and never will and those things are much more important in the league than marginal advantage in speed.

Exum was a great youth player and I was super high on him and I've been one of his biggest defenders on this board, but his handle and his shot were never good(and I expected he will improve but he has not progressed at all in those areas). He relied on quickness to beat people off the dribble and draw fouls and we've seen this just doesn't cut it in the league - you cannot live in the league on quickness when even when you beat your man, you don't have the touch to finish in the paint or the shot to pull up from midrange. I'd trade a bit of Exum's quickness for a lot more skill and shooting. With his shooting mechanic(his shot is a set shot), I don't EVER see him being able to shoot off the dribble consistently. Frank Ntilikina pulls up without a problem or hesitation, step backs... crossover into pullups... His handle is still shaky in traffic like Exum's, but I think I trust his skill and handle and shooting RIGHT NOW much more than I trust Exum's ... ever.

I think my faith in Exum has been broken... believe me, I'd love nothing more than for him to prove me wrong. A couple of years ago I got my first ever NBA jersey and was an Exum one, I really believed in him, but for various of reasons(the injury being the main one) it seems like he's not anywhere close to where we expected he'd be at this point. Of course, I'm open to be proven wrong, but at this point I'd say - I will believe it when I see it... Does that make me a bad fan?

Great post, BTW.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

10 million IS cheap. Anyway, I've never seen Dante as a potential super star, but I do believe he's going to be a solid player. Hell, he's already been a starter on a winning team during his rookie season, despite having no offensive game, simply because he could play defense and understood his role on offense.

We can get guys who are solid... who are actually solid... not just potentially solid... for less than Dante will sign for. BKN is devoid of young talent... opened up the treasure chest for Tyler Johnson and Allen Crabbe. There will be teams that talk themselves into him.

That is kind of my point... we are investing a lot of our future in this guy in hopes he becomes solid. He will likely get paid as though he has a higher ceiling.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

10 million IS cheap. Anyway, I've never seen Dante as a potential super star, but I do believe he's going to be a solid player. Hell, he's already been a starter on a winning team during his rookie season, despite having no offensive game, simply because he could play defense and understood his role on offense.

If his defense was as good or better than his rookie year I would not be down on him. When Dante is on the court we are much worse... we can sink more PT into his development but it costs us. I don't know that sending him to the D League will help him.