Obama Might Lose This

[franklin]

We said months ago that women would decide this one and that seems correct still. The Obama camp is clearly clinging to the various woman's rights straw arguments & doing a pretty good job at it.


Give Romney all the states he has a very good shot at winning--Florida (29), N. Carolina (15), Colorado (9), & Virginia (13)--and you're only up to 257. Romney has to either swing Ohio's 18, or a combination of multiple states. New Hampshire + Nevada + Iowa seems quite the long shot.

Romney needs to do something bold to show he has real ideas.

 

[Scat]

We said months ago that women would decide this one and that seems correct still. The Obama camp is clearly clinging to the various woman's rights straw arguments & doing a pretty good job at it.


Give Romney all the states he has a very good shot at winning--Florida (29), N. Carolina (15), Colorado (9), & Virginia (13)--and you're only up to 257. Romney has to either swing Ohio's 18, or a combination of multiple states. New Hampshire + Nevada + Iowa seems quite the long shot.

Romney needs to do something bold to show he has real ideas.

FL, NC, VA are safely in the Romney column. OH, NV, CO & WI are a tossup. Looks like Obama's firewall states are now Iowa, State 52 and State 57.

 

[sirkickyass]

FL, NC, VA are safely in the Romney column. OH, NV, CO & WI are a tossup. Looks like Obama's firewall states are now Iowa, State 52 and State 57.

Where are you getting your info?

Florida is about as "safe" for Romney as Iowa is for Obama. The candidates have an edge in those state's but it isn't insurmountable. Virginia and Colorado are the two closest races in the country. Both states are effectively tied, but you have VA as safe for Romney and CO as a toss-up?

Romney has almost zero chance of winning Wisconsin, and you have it listed as a tossup? New Hampshire isn't even listed.

I understand that Romney's campaign is trying very hard to project that it's momentum from the first debate is still rolling but that's simply not the case. Although I have very much enjoyed the war on quants over the last few days since they don't conform to Fox's favored narrative.

 

[Scat]

Where are you getting your info?

Florida is about as "safe" for Romney as Iowa is for Obama. The candidates have an edge in those state's but it isn't insurmountable. Virginia and Colorado are the two closest races in the country. Both states are effectively tied, but you have VA as safe for Romney and CO as a toss-up?

Romney has almost zero chance of winning Wisconsin, and you have it listed as a tossup? New Hampshire isn't even listed.

I understand that Romney's campaign is trying very hard to project that it's momentum from the first debate is still rolling but that's simply not the case. Although I have very much enjoyed the war on quants over the last few days since they don't conform to Fox's favored narrative.

I thought the reference to state 52 and state 57 would have made it obvious I was joking.

That said, here's some serious info about WI. And since I used the quote function, it's a real quote.

President Obama and Mitt Romney are now tied in the critical battleground state of Wisconsin. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Wisconsin Voters shows the president and his Republican challenger each earning 49% support. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.

Ninety-six percent (96%) of Badger State voters say they are sure to vote in this election. Romney leads 51% to 47% among these voters.

Among the 90% who say they’ve already made up their minds whom they will vote for, it’s Romney 51%, Obama 48%.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pu...n/wisconsin/election_2012_wisconsin_president

 

[The Thriller]

Well if the left leaning Rasmussen reports it then it must be true....

 

[Scat]

Well if the left leaning Rasmussen reports it then it must be true....

No need to get snarky. Just adding another layer to the onion that is the 2012 election polls.

 

[trigg3r]

Obama has a lead in electoral votes, 201 to 191.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

On their toss-ups, I hear Obama has basically conceded North Carolina, while Romney has basically conceded Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. That would make it 247-206.

If you truly believe that Romney has given up on Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania then you are being silly. He is very competitive in all 3 states and will need to pick one or two off if he is to have a chance at the Presidency if he doesn't win Ohio. I think Florida is Romney's at this point along with North Carolina and Virginia. I think he wins those. Colodrado will be close but I think he ends up taking it as well.

Anyway, it should be interesting with the storm hitting the east coast. The likely GOP voters have the lead as far as enthusiasm goes. Should be interesting to see what happens. As for Wisconsin, I can see Romney actually winning that state. Walker won his recall and numerous recalls have turned out similar. Add in Wisconsin native Paul Ryan on the bottom of the ticket and you can see why a state Obama carried by I believe 14 points in 2008 is now a dead heat.

 

[candrew]

If you truly believe that Romney has given up on Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania then you are being silly.

There is almost no way Romney wins PA. Every 4 years the R's think they have a chance there because there are huge pockets of right leaning counties in the middle of the state. The problem is no one lives there. Every election PA gets swallowed up by their two major left leaning cities - Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. This year will be no different.

 

[sirkickyass]

If you truly believe that Romney has given up on Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania then you are being silly. He is very competitive in all 3 states and will need to pick one or two off if he is to have a chance at the Presidency if he doesn't win Ohio. I think Florida is Romney's at this point along with North Carolina and Virginia. I think he wins those. Colodrado will be close but I think he ends up taking it as well.

Anyway, it should be interesting with the storm hitting the east coast. The likely GOP voters have the lead as far as enthusiasm goes. Should be interesting to see what happens. As for Wisconsin, I can see Romney actually winning that state. Walker won his recall and numerous recalls have turned out similar. Add in Wisconsin native Paul Ryan on the bottom of the ticket and you can see why a state Obama carried by I believe 14 points in 2008 is now a dead heat.

Actually you're being silly in this case. None of those three states are really in play. Of the three only Wisconsin is arguably competitive. To give you an idea as to how far out of the race Romney is in those three states, sums of polls indicate that Romney is as far out of Michigan as Obama is out of Arizona.

We'll do this old-SAT analogy style.

Michigan is to Romney as Arizona is to Obama.
Pennsylvania is to Romney as Missouri is to Obama.
Wisconsin is to Romney as North Carolina is to Obama.

Virginia is a virtual tie. Considering you're saying you think Romney will win virtually every swing state that is competitive and some that are not competitive I'm pretty sure you're in pie-in-the sky fantasy land.

 

[The Thriller]

Actually you're being silly in this case. None of those three states are really in play. Of the three only Wisconsin is arguably competitive. To give you an idea as to how far out of the race Romney is in those three states, sums of polls indicate that Romney is as far out of Michigan as Obama is out of Arizona.

We'll do this old-SAT analogy style.

Michigan is to Romney as Arizona is to Obama.
Pennsylvania is to Romney as Missouri is to Obama.
Wisconsin is to Romney as North Carolina is to Obama.

Virginia is a virtual tie. Considering you're saying you think Romney will win virtually every swing state that is competitive and some that are not competitive I'm pretty sure you're in pie-in-the sky fantasy land.

But but, websites realclearpolitics and the Rasmussen reports that it's still possible for Romney to win those states (and we all know how accurate those websites are) so obviously possible becomes probable.

Romney has this in the bag, it's so clear that even I can't believe that you are unable to see it!

 

[The Thriller]

My questions are...

When Romney loses this will Scat and his ilk do as they've done before? Blame people for voting for Obama because he offers them free stuff? Because he's black? Because they hate Mormons?

What will be the excuse(s) this time? And how will the repubs react to defeat? Will they be bitching and moaning and filibustering everything as they've done the past 4 years? Will they continue try to jam down our throats weirdo religious stuff like talking about how if someone gets pregnant because of rape it wasn't really a rape and that it was God's will or something stupid like that?

You folks are certainly welcome to rejoin the rest of America in what is called REALITY. If you drop the whole +2 Trillion dollar defense spending, SS is a Ponzi Scheme, Global Warming and science is evil, rape isn't rape unless it's real rape, Obamacare is unConstitutional, privatize privatize privatize, and filibustering every job creations bill, we may even let you ride in the back seat!

Until then, enjoy bitching about Obama and thinking about who'll run in 2016.... Who'll be your Savior after Obama continues to kick ***?

I'mmmmmmm baaaccckkkkk!

Did ya miss me???

 

[trigg3r]

There is almost no way Romney wins PA. Every 4 years the R's think they have a chance there because there are huge pockets of right leaning counties in the middle of the state. The problem is no one lives there. Every election PA gets swallowed up by their two major left leaning cities - Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. This year will be no different.

I have heard Pennsylvania described as fool's gold as far as Republicans go. I tend to agree. They will however not give up on it at this point when the polling is as close as it is.

 

[trigg3r]

Actually you're being silly in this case. None of those three states are really in play. Of the three only Wisconsin is arguably competitive. To give you an idea as to how far out of the race Romney is in those three states, sums of polls indicate that Romney is as far out of Michigan as Obama is out of Arizona.

We'll do this old-SAT analogy style.

Michigan is to Romney as Arizona is to Obama.
Pennsylvania is to Romney as Missouri is to Obama.
Wisconsin is to Romney as North Carolina is to Obama.

Virginia is a virtual tie. Considering you're saying you think Romney will win virtually every swing state that is competitive and some that are not competitive I'm pretty sure you're in pie-in-the sky fantasy land.

Did I hurt your feelings? Again, you are showing your bias. You already have this race over with Obama winning. Let's look at the latest polling and stop the emotional response you seem so fond of. One of the latest polls done in Michigan has it a tie. I don't recall saying that Romney takes Michigan. This throws your, " Considering you're saying you think Romney will win virtually every swing state that is competitive and some that are not competitive I'm pretty sure you're in pie-in-the sky fantasy land" out the window.

RCP has Romney up 48.0 to 46.8 in Virginia. I feel comfortable in saying Romney takes Virginia. Not sure why you have to get so up in arms about this.

RCP has Florida with a Romney advantage of 48% to 47.1%.

RCP has Colorado tied. In the end I gave my opinion that Romney would pull this one out. Just a feeling. You know, kind of like when you said this thing was over.

RCP has Obama with a lead in Wisconsin 49.3 to 47. I don't remember initially saying Romney was taking Wisconsin. I remember saying that it was in play due to the fact that they have shown a preference for Republicans in the state government in recent years. Keep in mind that Obama carried this state by 14 points in 2008.

Again, I don't recall saying Romney would win Pennsylvania. I said he wouldn't abandon it as one of his last chance options if Ohio didn't work out. I think you are being too silly and biased in this discussion. I never said Romney would take every close toss up state. I never even talked about Iowa, Nevada, or even mentioned Ohio in the Romney column. I will say that now more than ever I hope Romney is elected just for the fact that you and the Thriller would go insane.

 

[The Thriller]

Did I hurt your feelings? Again, you are showing your bias. You already have this race over with Obama winning. Let's look at the latest polling and stop the emotional response you seem so fond of. One of the latest polls done in Michigan has it a tie. I don't recall saying that Romney takes Michigan. This throws your, " Considering you're saying you think Romney will win virtually every swing state that is competitive and some that are not competitive I'm pretty sure you're in pie-in-the sky fantasy land" out the window.

RCP has Romney up 48.0 to 46.8 in Virginia. I feel comfortable in saying Romney takes Virginia. Not sure why you have to get so up in arms about this.

RCP has Florida with a Romney advantage of 48% to 47.1%.

RCP has Colorado tied. In the end I gave my opinion that Romney would pull this one out. Just as feeling. You know, kind of like when you said this thing was over.

RCP has Obama with a lead in Wisconsin 49.3 to 47. I don't remember initially saying Romney was taking Wisconsin. I remember saying that it was in play due to the fact that they have shown a preference for Republicans in they state government in recent years. Keep in mind that Obama carried this state by 14 points in 2008.

Again, I don't recall saying Romney would win Pennsylvania. I said he wouldn't abandon it as one of his last chance options if Ohio didn't work out. I think you are being too silly and biased in this discussion. I never said Romney would take every close toss up state. I never even talked about Iowa, Nevada, or even mentioned Ohio in the Romney column. I will say that now more than ever I hope Romney is elected just for the fact that you and the Thriller would go insane.

LOL!

Again... If realclearpolitics says it's true then it must be! LOL

Repubs are putting a lot of stock into some incredibly biased sources here; Rasmussen and realclearpolitics.

 

[franklin]

Ad spending figures FTW.

 

[sirkickyass]

Did I hurt your feelings? Again, you are showing your bias. You already have this race over with Obama winning. Let's look at the latest polling and stop the emotional response you seem so fond of. One of the latest polls done in Michigan has it a tie. I don't recall saying that Romney takes Michigan. This throws your, " Considering you're saying you think Romney will win virtually every swing state that is competitive and some that are not competitive I'm pretty sure you're in pie-in-the sky fantasy land" out the window.

Your statement was that Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania were competitive. They aren't. Michigan and Pennsylvania in particular are very very small probability states for a Romney win. If you believe they're competitive you're either in an echo chamber or you're cherry picking poll numbers.

The numbers over the last week + have been quite poor for Romney in battleground states. Thursday's polls of battleground states had 9 polling for Obama vs. three for Romney. Friday's round of polling featured 11 polls favoring Obama vs. four for Romney. Michigan and Pennsylvania aren't even being tracked in swing state polls by most sources.

RCP has Romney up 48.0 to 46.8 in Virginia. I feel comfortable in saying Romney takes Virginia. Not sure why you have to get so up in arms about this.

The Virginia polling average from Nate Silver and Emory's own Drew Linzer (which use significantly more and better data than RCP) indicate an unadjusted average of 47.6% for Obama and 46.8% for Romney. After adjustments for house effects, sample sizes, field dates and the like the numbers favor Obama by just .1%. If that's not a "virtual tie" I don't know what is.

RCP has Florida with a Romney advantage of 48% to 47.1%.

Romney is probably going to get Florida. No argument.

RCP has Colorado tied. In the end I gave my opinion that Romney would pull this one out. Just as feeling. You know, kind of like when you said this thing was over.

I said it was over based upon the available polling data and virtually all solid statistical analysis of the race. That's not just a feeling. There hasn't been any point in this race where that information indicated Romney was actually ahead in electoral count. The direction was a littly scary following the first debate, but we're past those days as the electoral numbers have been slowly going back to where they were before the debate. Obama's probably regained about half the ground he lost. At this point it looks more like Obama's getting to 300 electoral votes than falling below 270.

RCP has Obama with a lead in Wisconsin 49.3 to 47. I don't remember initially saying Romney was taking Wisconsin. I remember saying that it was in play due to the fact that they have shown a preference for Republicans in they state government in recent years. Keep in mind that Obama carried this state by 14 points in 2008.

You said you can see Romney taking Wisconsin. I think that's pretty close to a 1 in 10 chance at best. I'm saying that looking at poll numbers and looking at sophisticated simulations of the race that give not just average results but voting bands of probable results. The Wisconsin bands are very narrow.

Again, I don't recall saying Romney would win Pennsylvania. I said he wouldn't abandon it as one of his last chance options if Ohio didn't work out.

Romney's campaign keeps saying things about Penn, but not committing any resources there. I don't believe they have any intention of contesting the state.

 

[trigg3r]

Your statement was that Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania were competitive. They aren't. Michigan and Pennsylvania in particular are very very small probability states for a Romney win. If you believe they're competitive you're either in an echo chamber or you're cherry picking poll numbers.

The numbers over the last week + have been quite poor for Romney in battleground states. Thursday's polls of battleground states had 9 polling for Obama vs. three for Romney. Friday's round of polling featured 11 polls favoring Obama vs. four for Romney. Michigan and Pennsylvania aren't even being tracked in swing state polls by most sources.



The Virginia polling average from Nate Silver and Emory's own Drew Linzer (which use significantly more and better data than RCP) indicate an unadjusted average of 47.6% for Obama and 46.8% for Romney. After adjustments for house effects, sample sizes, field dates and the like the numbers favor Obama by just .1%. If that's not a "virtual tie" I don't know what is.



Romney is probably going to get Florida. No argument.



I said it was over based upon the available polling data and virtually all solid statistical analysis of the race. That's not just a feeling. There hasn't been any point in this race where that information indicated Romney was actually ahead in electoral count. The direction was a littly scary following the first debate, but we're past those days as the electoral numbers have been slowly going back to where they were before the debate. Obama's probably regained about half the ground he lost. At this point it looks more like Obama's getting to 300 electoral votes than falling below 270.



You said you can see Romney taking Wisconsin. I think that's pretty close to a 1 in 10 chance at best. I'm saying that looking at poll numbers and looking at sophisticated simulations of the race that give not just average results but voting bands of probable results. The Wisconsin bands are very narrow.

Romney's campaign keeps saying things about Penn, but not committing any resources there. I don't believe they have any intention of contesting the state.

Sorry, I am not up to date regarding the multi-quote feature so I will go over it point by point.

1. Your statement on Romney not being competitive in Michigan and Pennsylvania is ridiculous to begin with. The polls back me up on this. Don't believe them? Go look again if you need to. RCP has both of these swing states as close. Ultimately, I think Obama wins Pennsylvania and probably Michigan. That doesn't however mean that isn't competitive.

2. Virginia IMO is a state Romney will win. All he has to continue to do is put forth commercials on sequestration and Virginia will be his. He is doing this currently. Feel free to tell me I am wrong if he loses it on election night.

3. Every polling outfit is using 2008 election turn out models. In other words, they are now over counting the minority vote that will turn out. Call me Dick Morris all you want or even Dick if that is what you prefer, but you can't argue this. Do you really believe turnout for the President will be as high as it was in 2008? If so, I am going to be selling some swamp land soon and it's got a fantastic view of gators and snakes.

4. Rasmussen has been the most accurate polling provider in recent history. Call it Rightmussen all you want, they have been more accurate than Gallup for instance. Don't get me started on any poll involving NBC. They gave Romney a +2 in Virginia for what it is worth.

5. I believe Romney can take Wisconsin. The Governor survived his recall as well as many GOP party members. I think the state is actually trending GOP. That doesn't mean he will win it this time around. Obviously it also doesn't hurt he has a Wisconsin native on the ticket with him. This state really could go either way and it certainly isn't just a 1 out of 10 chance of Romney winning it. Like I said, in 2008 Obama carried this state by 14 points. Now it is down to a statistical dead heat.

6. "Romney's campaign keeps saying things about Penn, but not committing any resources there. I don't believe they have any intention of contesting the state."

Then why would they put a single cent in it going forward? He is running ads in hopes of making up the difference in the polls currently. Will it work? Not likely. As I said, I think Obama takes Pennsylvania.

7. Right now I have the Governor at 261(obviously my opinion) on the electoral map. I have the President at 233 with 3 states undecided that will ultimately decide the election. Those states are Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, and Iowa. It is obviously my opinion that Romney takes Virginia, New Hampshire, Florida(I think this is all but done), North Carolina, and Colorado. If he wins one of those states it is over IMO. If he loses all 3 then Obama wins 277 to 261. I guess we will see what happens. We can argue about this for the next week plus or we can wait and see.

 

[TheDude]

LOL!

Again... If realclearpolitics says it's true then it must be! LOL

Repubs are putting a lot of stock into some incredibly biased sources here; Rasmussen and realclearpolitics.

 

[The Thriller]

The mere fact that the repubs on this board are relying on websites like RCP and Rasmussen to make their points speak volumes on how well this election is going for Romney...

A few weeks ago you folks had no problem quoting the "main stream" media. Not anymore.

Just sayin.

 

[trigg3r]

The mere fact that the repubs on this board are relying on websites like RCP and Rasmussen to make their points speak volumes on how well this election is going for Romney...

A few weeks ago you folks had no problem quoting the "main stream" media. Not anymore.

Just sayin.