Game Thread Oct 04, 2022 08:00PM MT: Jazz at Trail Blazers (Preseason)

[HeatCheck]

The thing in Bogey's favor is that he fits on every team. Every team needs a wing, not everyone needs a 4/5 combo like Olynyk. I expect Olynyk to have better numbers this year though. He's a good player who has always been underrated. If the Jazz don't cut Stan, I think they have 8 real NBA rotation players. The combo of Kessley/Dok could make it 9. As exciting as Scoot and Vic were last night, I just don't think that's in the cards. There's a ton of solid rotation players left on these teams and they actually fit really well together.

No! Don't jinx us!

 

[KqWIN]

That is what has made me laugh when folks are like... "oh man this Jazz team is just so bad". If we played it straight this is a 30-35 win team depending on health.

Its why the Bogey/Vando overpay to the Suns would have been good... offload two good players and open up the void at 5 even more. With KO we kinda closed it up.

The odds of getting Wemby or Scoot going from 28% to like 15.3% sucks... but it doesn't seem like a big deal because either way odds aren't "good". The downside of finishing 6/7 is what really sucks. Ending with the 7-9th pick still gives a shot at a good player but you are picking leftovers. What is the value if we had the 4th pick and traded back to 8-9... like at least one good first right? Maybe more.

A Lakers deal could clear enough functional players to get us to #4. Indiana/Charlotte are the darkhorses to me. Would also clear the cap next year to do some stuff. Offloading Mike/JC might drop us 5 or so wins if they aren't replaced with good players. If you dump Gay in that deal then great... if you get some 2nd rounders too then even better. We literally should trade someone just to trade someone.

I had kinda just assumed we'd make more trades to offload vets, but the Beverley trade was the only one that did that. With Bogey, we might have gotten a better player. The amount of functional NBA players is about double what I expected....and it makes it hard to be very bad without a single prospect who is going to demand a lot of minutes. Also, I'm just not into Jazz basketball this year so I hadn't really thought to much about it. I will no matter what, but I didn't care to put thought into a team that was purposely trying to lose. If that's the goal, it should be easy. After putting in more thought, it's a team that's not terrible but also not good and probably between 28 and 32 wins. Not very interesting either. I don't think the Jazz can bottom out until they offload everyone, but I'm not sure we'll do that. Not anytime soon anyways.

It's going to be a long, hard next few seasons in UTA. We'll just be waiting for luck to strike, but we haven't exactly stacked the odds in our favor. A lot of the picks we got don't kick in until the distant future. I'm starting to think Danny wasn't lying about no trying to bottom out. Maybe the plan is to build up a mediocre team, but a mediocre team with a bunch of extra picks. Only time will tell, but right now it doesn't look like we're centering the rebuild around getting top 3-4 draft picks.

Are we going to be worse next year? I don't think we are. We would have to move on from Lauri, Vando, Sexton, Clarkson, Conley, Olynyk etc. There's so many players to move, and half of them are youngish (ironically the type of players I thought we should surround Mitchell and/or Gobert with). Right now the path to getting a superstar player is hitting a grand slam on a pick from 6-10 or getting a lottery miracle+hitting on the pick (high draft pick is no guarantee to get a star player). This doesn't seem like a situation where we're going to be drafting in the top 3-5 picks for multiple season. We might get some lotto luck down the line, but when is this team ever going to win 20 games? I see this franchise as more likely to win 30 games than 20 games.

There's a universe where the Grizzlies end up with Coby White instead of Ja Morant, and despite nailing 49 draft picks in a row are still mediocre without a ton of star power. I kinda think that's where we're headed.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I had kinda just assumed we'd make more trades to offload vets, but the Beverley trade was the only one that did that. With Bogey, we might have gotten a better player. The amount of functional NBA players is about double what I expected....and it makes it hard to be very bad without a single prospect who is going to demand a lot of minutes. Also, I'm just not into Jazz basketball this year so I hadn't really thought to much about it. I will no matter what, but I didn't care to put thought into a team that was purposely trying to lose. If that's the goal, it should be easy. After putting in more thought, it's a team that's not terrible but also not good and probably between 28 and 32 wins. Not very interesting either. I don't think the Jazz can bottom out until they offload everyone, but I'm not sure we'll do that. Not anytime soon anyways.

It's going to be a long, hard next few seasons in UTA. We'll just be waiting for luck to strike, but we haven't exactly stacked the odds in our favor. A lot of the picks we got don't kick in until the distant future. I'm starting to think Danny wasn't lying about no trying to bottom out. Maybe the plan is to build up a mediocre team, but a mediocre team with a bunch of extra picks. Only time will tell, but right now it doesn't look like we're centering the rebuild around getting top 3-4 draft picks.

Are we going to be worse next year? I don't think we are. We would have to move on from Lauri, Vando, Sexton, Clarkson, Conley, Olynyk etc. There's so many players to move, and half of them are youngish (ironically the type of players I thought we should surround Mitchell and/or Gobert with). Right now the path to getting a superstar player is hitting a grand slam on a pick from 6-10 or getting a lottery miracle+hitting on the pick (high draft pick is no guarantee to get a star player). This doesn't seem like a situation where we're going to be drafting in the top 3-5 picks for multiple season. We might get some lotto luck down the line, but when is this team ever going to win 20 games? I see this franchise as more likely to win 30 games than 20 games.

There's a universe where the Grizzlies end up with Coby White instead of Ja Morant, and despite nailing 49 draft picks in a row are still mediocre without a ton of star power. I kinda think that's where we're headed.

Not sure what the plan is... I think you are a little more pessimistic than I am with regard to the draft/lotto. I don't think hitting on something that has a 15% chance is a miracle... just not likely. Its just a bit hyperbolic. Pushing that aside I agree we may have flubbed this up with too many functional players. Was pounding that drum and getting laughed at a bit...not by everyone though.

There is a world where Jazz management sees this and then flips KO or even Lauri if the lakers decide to pony up their picks and right the ship (wrong the ship?) for tanking. I think if you subtract Mike and KO we can hit bottom 4. I just don't see us dipping below OKC, SA or Houston. Indiana could sink below a couple of those teams if they finally do the Lakers deal. I just think we are getting too cute with culture and the Vando's and Beasley's of the world. If you had to sell off 2/3 of those pieces at a discount to get a first... then that is a premium you should pay. 22-25 wins won't destroy our culture... 28-33 wins won't build some amazing culture. Just debase yourself and lose like you need to.

 

[seattlejazzfan]

He's a first time coach trying to install offensive/defensive principles for the first time in his career.

Veteran coaches dont have to practice this kind of stuff to the degree that a 34 year old rookie does. It's common sense.

lol. you can do that while incorporating meaningful playing time for the young guys too. in fact pre-season is the ideal time to do exactly that. it's common sense.

 

[KqWIN]

Not sure what the plan is... I think you are a little more pessimistic than I am with regard to the draft/lotto. I don't think hitting on something that has a 15% chance is a miracle... just not likely. Its just a bit hyperbolic. Pushing that aside I agree we may have flubbed this up with too many functional players. Was pounding that drum and getting laughed at a bit...not by everyone though.

There is a world where Jazz management sees this and then flips KO or even Lauri if the lakers decide to pony up their picks and right the ship (wrong the ship?) for tanking. I think if you subtract Mike and KO we can hit bottom 4. I just don't see us dipping below OKC, SA or Houston. Indiana could sink below a couple of those teams if they finally do the Lakers deal. I just think we are getting too cute with culture and the Vando's and Beasley's of the world. If you had to sell off 2/3 of those pieces at a discount to get a first... then that is a premium you should pay. 22-25 wins won't destroy our culture... 28-33 wins won't build some amazing culture. Just debase yourself and lose like you need to.

Miracle is subjective, but it's definitely uncommon to hit on a #2 pick from the 8th spot and also have the #2 player be Ja Morant....especially with the old odds. Memphis hit with a 6% chance (slightly higher because NOP jumped them). Then you add in the probability that a #2 pick is as good as Ja Morant and you're looking at a 1-2% chance of that happening. The odds are better for us now, and we feel pretty confident that if you get a top 2 pick it will be a superstar talent, but it's just a reminder of how much luck is involved. If NOP and MEM don't hit those crazy improbable lottery chances, they are in a completely different spot as franchises. MEM in particular has drafted incredibly, but they wouldn't be in the same amazing situation without getting that massive stroke of luck. I whole heartedly believe that the best teams will rise up regardless of where they draft, the draft is only a fraction of team building....but it's also a piece of team building that's highly unpredictable. You can do everything right, but nothing trumps a random stroke of luck.

I also couldn't care less about the "culture" effects of adding a few extra wins. The culture and vibes around the team are simply a product of expectations versus results. The Rockets had a better culture and vibe than the Jazz last season and they won half as much. When you're winning, the culture is great. When you're losing, it's suddenly a bad culture. It's the results vs expectations that come first, not the way around. But at the same time, I just don't see the Jazz trading these youngish guys. If Lauri has a good year, for example, are we trading him? The Jazz have done some surprising things in the past, but it would shock me if they traded Lauri, Sexton, Vando etc. if they play well. We're also looking into extending Clarkson, and if Beasley plays well we'll probably pick up his option.

I'm pretty pessimistic about this rebuild if I'm being honest. We got a bunch of non-premium picks, non-premium prospects, and we're not in a position to get premium picks on our own. It can work, but I'm not super excited about anything we have or the position we're in. It's not exactly a power position, that's for sure.