Optimistic Jazz Math

[Bodhi]

So, a little background on me, I graduated top of my class with a degree in Philanthropy so, admittedly, I'm not exactly Will Hunting when it comes to math-styled-matics. With that caveat, I'd like to put forth this hypothesis. ((I wrote my senior thesis on something similar)

So, we may have lucked into the ideal way to "rebuild" from multiple points of view, IMO. First we are still winning currently with some key veterans and solid contributions from some young lottery picks. Typically either you suck it up for a few seasons (or more) and build through the lottery like OKC or you make some bold moves like Boston did with the big three if you want to compete. We are sort of in the middle ground, and for some that may not be ideal in that it wouldn't lead to a championship as currently constituted, but thats short sighted, IMO.

My thinking is that we may have a perfect storm brewing in that we have some solid (and some just reaching their prime in Millsap) vets allowing us to have some success while also allowing the kids some time to play along side. How this is different from other franchises that I can remember in the recent past is when it comes time to re-sign the young guys. Allowing Favors, Kanter, Burks and Hayward (to a lesser extent) to really only play auxiliary roles for the next few years, in a way, doesn't let their lights fully shine, so to speak. If we were in full rebuild mode and allowed these kids to start for a couple of years together, I'm of the opinion that one or more would then demand contracts that would push the Jazz to decide who to keep etc. In this circumstance we may be hiding them just enough to allow the KOC to re-sign them for Millsap-esque deals (has to be one of the very best values in the NBA, no?) because they are not getting the burn necessary to fully showcase what they will become or could have been with full minutes from the jump.

Basically I'm saying we could be sort of lucking into 4 more Millsap deals which would put the Jazz into one of the best situations financially and competitively speaking, in the NBA. If Favors turns into a beast, but a beast at 8mil instead of 14mil, that would be amazing, but imagine that for possibly another guy out of those 4 but then add in guys that maybe should have received 8mil but signed at 5 instead. At that point you have a very talented roster but also one that still allows financial flexibility. Pretty much every GM's wet dream, no?

So, to come full circle, being that I just jet around the country glad handing for my various charities and having wild, uninhibited liaisons with models as per my degree's description, I'm prone to missing key details sometimes. That said, what, if anything, am I missing? Billyshelby? Numb? HeavenHarris (totally JK, can you imagine? LOL!) This could turn into the ideal situation, no?

 

[Jazz4ever]

It will be hard to hide Favors' and Kanter's skill by the time we have to pay them in 2014/2015. Al will most likely be traded next year at some point, with KOC electing to try and keep Millsap long term (just my guess). That will open up 30+ more minutes for Favors and Kanter and look how much DeAndre Jordan just got for his limited sample size. You also run the risk of making them unhappy if you purposely hold them to only 20 or so minutes in their 3rd and 4th years. They could demand a trade or elect to play out their qualifying offer to become a non restricted FA.

 

[chawx]

I agree. By not completely handing this team to the rookies and losing almost every night, we're 1) teaching them how to win and what it takes to win. 2) they're having fun instead of stressing about having to do everything right. 3) and to your point, they're being hidden in a way, so they can be re-signed after their rookie contracts for a decent price that will allow our team to be able to look at other options around the league that a team in the red couldn't do.

This has been an amazing "rebuild" by KOC and team. Our future (and present) is looking bright...so far.

 

[TWest33]

Great analysis, enough to make me register so i could respond to your comments. It wouldn't surprise me if KOC is operating like you mentioned above with your theory of breaking down playing time. I hated seeing Wes matthews go a couple of years ago because he played hard on both sides of the court, right type of work ethic, team player, ect. It almost happened the year before with Milsap. I don't want to see it again with some of our young guys. I agree with your assessment above, you are not missing anything. Great insight!

 

[Bodhi]

Great analysis, enough to make me register so i could respond to your comments. It wouldn't surprise me if KOC is operating like you mentioned above with your theory of breaking down playing time. I hated seeing Wes matthews go a couple of years ago because he played hard on both sides of the court, right type of work ethic, team player, ect. It almost happened the year before with Milsap. I don't want to see it again with some of our young guys. I agree with your assessment above, you are not missing anything. Great insight!

Thanks, Brother.

 

[freakazoid]

Good post, Bodhi. It's nice to see someone who actually understands something about strategy when trying to build a team, as opposed to the guy who thinks we could have just picked up Billups, because of what the Clips are paying him.

Building a team is tricky, and yes, teams do try to avoid being put in a position where they end up overpaying to keep a player, or losing him to avoid overpaying. It's kind of a catch 22. Everybody wants our players to turn into all stars overnight, but if the ultimate goal is a championship, it's in our best interest to be able to sign these guys as cheaply as possible before they break out.

 

[Zulu]

I think the best part is that the new CBA rules go into full effect in two years when Harris, Bell, Jefferson and Milsap all come off the books. This gives us all the money we need to sign our young guys, plus the new CBA makes it a lot easier to keep your own players! We are in fantastic shape as a franchise!

 

[JimLes]

Excellent post.

What I really like is that despite the youth of the team, there is clearly a goal. No one has come out and said it, but the Jazz brass have clearly come into the season with the goal of making the playoffs. This is why Earl was resigned, this is why Josh and Jamaal were picked up instead of some young prospects. And it doesn't matter whether the goal is to make playoffs now or next year, I just think it's important to have a firm goal.

There are so many teams who rebuild "without expectations." They turn the team over to some high-flying rookies, and then expect that by playing together, they'll just one day magically become better and make the playoffs or contend, or whatever.

 

[Dr. Jones]

repped, Bodhi

 

[SojoDave]

We are in great shape as a franchise, as long as our youth develop into solid NBA players. I hope and pray that the youngsters develop and become players we can build around. But...

-Favors, has few offensive moves and is not consistent. He is still raw, but needs a post-up game.
-Hayward, Has no confidence in his shot and has a lot of turnovers. He may never be a good shooter and he gets overpowered on defense.
-Burks, Can drive great, but is wildly out of control. Great open court player, but he needs to work in a half-court offense.
-Kanter, He is a rebounding machine, but is clueless on offense and doesn't know how to move on defense. I don't know if I can recall a high first round draft pick this raw, who has developed into a dependable NBA starter. He could be the next Darko or the next Jermaine O'Neal.

Let's all hope that the youngersters reach their potential.

 

[carolinajazz]

He could be the next Darko or the next Jermaine O'Neal.

......two complete losers....why wish for that???

 

[Bodhi]

We are in great shape as a franchise, as long as our youth develop into solid NBA players. I hope and pray that the youngsters develop and become players we can build around. But...

-Favors, has few offensive moves and is not consistent. He is still raw, but needs a post-up game.
-Hayward, Has no confidence in his shot and has a lot of turnovers. He may never be a good shooter and he gets overpowered on defense.
-Burks, Can drive great, but is wildly out of control. Great open court player, but he needs to work in a half-court offense.
-Kanter, He is a rebounding machine, but is clueless on offense and doesn't know how to move on defense. I don't know if I can recall a high first round draft pick this raw, who has developed into a dependable NBA starter. He could be the next Darko or the next Jermaine O'Neal.

Let's all hope that the youngersters reach their potential.

Maybe you missed the first word in the title, Deborah Downer.

 

[franklin]

Degree in philanthropy? I don't know if I can take anything you say serious again, Mr. Bodhi. Nuthin.

If Favors turns into a beast, but a beast at 8mil instead of 14mil, that would be amazing

Kwame Brown. DeAndre Jordan. Greg Osterrrruuhhhhhh. $8mm is not going to happen. 10-12 minimum, Ursula Upper.

So, to come full circle, being that I just jet around the country glad handing for my various charities and having wild, uninhibited liaisons with models as per my degree's description, I'm prone to missing key details sometimes.

Degree in philanthropy!

 

[JohnnyClutch]

I hated seeing Wes matthews go a couple of years ago because he played hard on both sides of the court, right type of work ethic, team player, ect

The Jazz totally screwed up on Matthews. All they needed to do was sign him for 3 years with a team option for the 2nd and 3rd and he would have gobbled it. Unsigned rookies have no bargaining power.

 

[Jazz4ever]

The Jazz totally screwed up on Matthews. All they needed to do was sign him for 3 years with a team option for the 2nd and 3rd and he would have gobbled it. Unsigned rookies have no bargaining power.

Not sure if 2 team options in a 3 year contract is allowed, but don't forget this was also the year Miles "bulked up" and was supposedly going to break out. Matthews was just looked at as a filler until Miles finger healed.

 

[billyshelby]

No doubt KOC is a shrewd guy. And yeah, I think preserving longterm signability is part of his strategy. But to be honest, I also think it's better for young guys to wade in gradually in terms of player development. First you make every player earn minutes and then you make sure they understand winning is what will get them minutes. But on the flip side of that, you can't hold back a young guy who contributes to winning or you're polluting the message. Deron was ready out of the gate and he had to play. If Burks was ready for 30 next year (he won't be), you have to give him those minutes no matter how it affects his signability.

 

[billyshelby]

The Jazz totally screwed up on Matthews. All they needed to do was sign him for 3 years with a team option for the 2nd and 3rd and he would have gobbled it. Unsigned rookies have no bargaining power.

The revisionist history on Wes signing with Portland has to end. For the millionth time, Wes' agent was looking for maximum FA money which, given his one year tenure, was just shy of MLE money (a one year guy can only get such and such a raise on the open market.) There were even reports that KOC made overtures on a deal, but was specifically told Wes was testing the waters. And it's not like Wes called up KOC to say what Portland's offer was so a hometown discount could be arranged. He just signed it.

 

[Bodhi]

No doubt KOC is a shrewd guy. And yeah, I think preserving longterm signability is part of his strategy. But to be honest, I also think it's better for young guys to wade in gradually in terms of player development. First you make every player earn minutes and then you make sure they understand winning is what will get them minutes. But on the flip side of that, you can't hold back a young guy who contributes to winning or you're polluting the message. Deron was ready out of the gate and he had to play. If Burks was ready for 30 next year (he won't be), you have to give him those minutes no matter how it affects his signability.

I agree, and thats another part of the "luck" equation though in my mind. If you have a Durant type talent you cant "hide" them without doing damage to your team and pissing off the player in question. All of these guys need to be brought along slow, and while thats not better than having a bonafide star out of the gate its better than throwing them to the wolves and asking them to be the man when they clearly aren't ready.

They get on the job experience without having to be burdened with the load of huge expectations of a fan base because they don't have a Millsap, AJ or Howard in front of them.

And to Franklin's point, I will concede 8mil probably isn't happening for Favors, even shaving 2-3mil from what he could have gotten helps a franchise quite a bit if that also happens with 2-3 other guys. Saving 8mil collectively across the board is the difference between potentially competing for a championship and not, IMO.

 

[UtahMan]

Bodhi, I basically agree with what you have said and appreciate your comments. The one issue that I would raise is that I don't see any of those four young guys as a star player (i.e. top twenty). My bet is that Favors will be the best of the bunch, but I think that to make a championship run, we would need at least one top 10-20 player. What do you think?

 

[franklin]

And to Franklin's point, I will concede 8mil probably isn't happening for Favors, even shaving 2-3mil from what he could have gotten helps a franchise quite a bit if that also happens with 2-3 other guys. Saving 8mil collectively across the board is the difference between potentially competing for a championship and not, IMO.

I wasn't meaning to nit pick. You're onto the downside to the huge upside. If all four of these players turn out how some thought they would before the season started then the Jazz are going to have a fun time trying to keep four max guys. I don't think it will turn out anywhere near that rosie but having even one max and 3 12-14mm per players is a hefty load. NBA teams need Duncans and Parkers, and a grip of cheap inpact filler.