Low hit rate on that particular prediction, for sure. Just checked that site, though (hadn't seen it before), and man is it busy! There are like 15 articles from the past couple of days, seemingly.Probably not one of these guys:
Utah Jazz: 3 players who could break out next season
As the Jazz head towards a rebuild, they need to improve their current roster internally as well as add picks. Three players stand out as potential piecesthejnotes.com
Players bound for a big leap next year
- Thread starter Agent#00
- Start date
I'm not so worried about him not getting ready for training camp and season, but I am a bit worried that the lack of extended rest may be dangerous in terms on injury.
Isaiah 1:13
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Happy to see Dok getting a second chance with Phoenix on a two way deal.Probably not one of these guys:
Utah Jazz: 3 players who could break out next season
As the Jazz head towards a rebuild, they need to improve their current roster internally as well as add picks. Three players stand out as potential pieces
Are they good at it though? It's not like the have NBA players coming though. But, I would guess it's overall positive for him. Plus it seems the Jazz coaches have some involvement.
Personally I think his percentages shooting will drop a little bit, since he was stupidly hot for awhile. But he'll improve in a lot of a other areas. He hasn't been working as top scorers much in the NBA. I think he'll get in better shape, learn to pass a little more, and create more for himself. Overall he'll be a better player.
His shooting fell off a cliff last year already. If you draw the line to the LA/Minny trade date (2/9/23). Up until that day he was 42.3% from 3, and after that he shot 30.9%. That is a huge 11.4% difference. However, he did still put up the points and actually had 28.7 PPG average after the deadline. Now there is some correlation between those two things (the trade and his shot falling off) but not to that degree. It was mostly just hitting a skid for him. But it also means he was creating a lot more points in other ways than just slingshooting triples.
Here is a related comp:
4.1 made threes per game in December where he shot blazingly hot (48.6%) and averaged 26.8 points (45.9% of his PPG came from 3 pointers)
3.1 made threes per game in March, where he averaged 28.5 points (32.6% of his PPG came from 3 pointers).
If you look at his season (66 games total) as a tale of two halves:
First 33 games (2nd option scorer with better supporting cast)
33.9 MPG, 23.1 PPG, 8.2 RPG with 53/43/84 splits
Last 33 games (1st option scorer with weaker supporting cast in about half of the games)
35.0 MPG, 28.3 PPG, 9.1 RPG with 47/36/89 splits
What is the most interesting thing here is we actually didn't see much of him as the #1 option with a solid supporting cast. January is the best indication of how that could have turned out as he was already elevated to the #1 status by the team at that point and still had Conley, Vando, Beasley and mostly healthy team around him. And he did manage to put up 28.5 points with 49/44/89 splits in January.
fishonjazz
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If he was the second option scorer at the beginning of the year and averaged 23 point per game then who was our 1st option scorer during that time?
really good post btw with great data/info. Much appreciated.
There was no one really shooting at true #1 volumes, but JC took the most shots nonetheless. However I say Lauri was legit #2 volume guy since 15.1 FGA per game is clearly in that range.
This was first half (sorted by FGA):
Second half:
Really? No one from a team as young as we are?
Bawse Dawg
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If Lauri had another big leap it would be an unprecedently great season. He put up prime Dirk numbers last year, you guys are expecting another big leap? I would be happy if last year was the new normal for him. Do players often make two big leaps in back to back seasons? Lauri's efficiency last year was off the charts, how much room is there to realistically leap into?
“Big leap” suggests to me that they are already in the NBA, so I don’t count rookies.
I don’t think there is much evidence to suggest that Kessler is suddenly gonna become a seriously skilled offensive force which is where he would have the most headroom to make a leap. I guess if he becomes legit all-defensive 1st team/DPOY candidate.
Ochai doesn’t impress me much generally and his summer league showing was disappointing even to me.
Lauri doesn’t have much headroom from last season. He will be an MVP candidate if he has a big leap. I don’t see that.
Sexton has already made something of a splash in terms of individual production. If him getting back to 24ppg counts as a big leap then maybe him I guess? I just don’t think resurgence is what people think about in this context.
THT might be the best candidate since he has a lot of headroom and a lot of talent.
Handlogten's Heros
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Yeah I think a few guys could take a step forward but don't see a huge leap from anyone. If Sexton stays healthy I could see him being viewed as taking a big leap I guess. Ochai is fine but the Desmond Bane glow up ain't happening. I'd give THT as good a chance of being off the roster as I would to take a big leap.
fishonjazz
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From reading your post it would seem like the best candidate to you would be ochai. He isn't a rookie. His minutes will likely go up and his role will be bigger. And you already think quite little of him. That would bode well for him to have a jump in your eyes I would think.
Handlogten's Heros
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Based on what I saw last year and in summer league I just don’t think he’s an on ball guy. He should be a solid 3 and D guard but might top out as an efficient 12-15 ppg guy. He’s not like a liability with the ball… he’s just not providing much when he isn’t catching and shooting or making a good cut to the rim.
He was an older rookie so may not have a super high ceiling.
I think the best candidate is actually Walker. A jump in FT shooting, getting a few more deep post touches and adding like a middy push shot could really add a some additional scoring punch. Defense should improve a bit. I just think it’s more likely he takes a step or half step forward rather than a LEAP.
Alright, I know this is about leaps, but I don't know about big ones so I'll just give my position on each player:
Clarkson: about what we see for Clarkson.
THT: I'd like to believe he can be a consistent guy that provides value. I lean more toward seeing an output that looks statistically similar to his previous four years, which will be accompanied by the inevitable "OMG you gotta look deeper than his numbers" to make alternative arguments for his value that aren't apparently anywhere obvious. I hope to be wrong.
Ochai: I believe he'll look like a rotation player (or someone who could become a decent rotation guy) but have some questions if the numbers will bear that out. Kind of like Shandon Anderson, who I had mentioned last week as looking so much better at the time that what the numbers actually showed.
Dunn: I believe a full season of being back to health will show that this guy is NBA level talent and not minimum contract / out of the league talent. He'll outperform his contract. How much people value him will depend on their needs. We'll see how much overlap there will be between what he brings and what we need.
Kessler: he'll look better in the sense that his role will be established from the beginning, as opposed to last year. He'll be getting more minutes and more of a fixture so his number will increase. He'll look fine. I'm not sure how much of a per-minute change there will be in stats, but they eye test will look a little more polished.
Lauri: Similar to above. It's hard to make an argument that stats drastically increase. I think he'll look better overall and his impact on the game will be larger, but the stats may not fully show that.
Sexton: wild card. If he's getting minutes, there's a good opportunity he can really ramp up his scoring.
Clarkson: about what we see for Clarkson.
THT: I'd like to believe he can be a consistent guy that provides value. I lean more toward seeing an output that looks statistically similar to his previous four years, which will be accompanied by the inevitable "OMG you gotta look deeper than his numbers" to make alternative arguments for his value that aren't apparently anywhere obvious. I hope to be wrong.
Ochai: I believe he'll look like a rotation player (or someone who could become a decent rotation guy) but have some questions if the numbers will bear that out. Kind of like Shandon Anderson, who I had mentioned last week as looking so much better at the time that what the numbers actually showed.
Dunn: I believe a full season of being back to health will show that this guy is NBA level talent and not minimum contract / out of the league talent. He'll outperform his contract. How much people value him will depend on their needs. We'll see how much overlap there will be between what he brings and what we need.
Kessler: he'll look better in the sense that his role will be established from the beginning, as opposed to last year. He'll be getting more minutes and more of a fixture so his number will increase. He'll look fine. I'm not sure how much of a per-minute change there will be in stats, but they eye test will look a little more polished.
Lauri: Similar to above. It's hard to make an argument that stats drastically increase. I think he'll look better overall and his impact on the game will be larger, but the stats may not fully show that.
Sexton: wild card. If he's getting minutes, there's a good opportunity he can really ramp up his scoring.
fishonjazz
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Exactly. You have seen him as limited up to this point. Plenty of room to go up. Has the body, athleticism, physical tools. Seems coachable and like a hard worker. Easy pick to make a jump.
seattlejazzfan
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yep. no chance lauri has even a significant leap. we need to hope he can just not take a significant step back. if he can equal or come very close to what he did last year, we should be thrilled.
Thee Idiotic Minivan K
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I think Agbaji will surprise. He’s not going to be asked to do what he was doing in summer League. What he did show is his athleticism on defense and outside shooting, and ability to rebound. This will be his role and he will do it very well
What’s the “big leap” from looking like Klay Thompson?