Question about Favors

[green]

I posted this in another thread and it got buried under the more exciting new nickname for the young 'uns:

Which Favors would you rather have:

Favors at 12 pts, 10 shots per night, 10 rebs, 3 blks, 52% fg for 10 million a year.
Favors at 17 pts, 10 rebs, 3 blks, 48% fg for 15 million a year.
Favors at 15 pts, 10 rebs, 3 blks, 48% fg then traded for a future first to a team like Cleveland.

I want to know when a player is worth his salary based on his production, and when it is better to trade him because, while his production is good, it isn't good enough for what he will get paid.

 

[LogGrad98]

25/12/3 50% max please.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I957 using JazzFanz mobile app

 

[addictionary]

When I see the blocks, I hit it.

 

[addictionary]

Actually forget about the FG %. I think the Jazz will have their success more from the rebounds and turnovers dominance this season.

Of course they'll make mistakes, but if they steal the ball well enough and hold on to it *KANTERRR ARE YOU WITH US!!!*, they'll be alright with the % they'll have.

 

[Jazz Spazz]

25/12/3 50% max please.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I957 using JazzFanz mobile app

Why should that be the max?

If he can go 30/18/5 at 50% I'd be even happier.

 

[Karadrys30]

I went with the first option. That is because I assume that Kanter gets the same stats and that the burk bros get 12 ppg and Hayward is 17 ppg with 10 asst. Yes the coolaid tastes good.

 

[Jazz Spazz]

I went with the first option. That is because I assume that Kanter gets the same stats and that the burk bros get 12 ppg and Hayward is 17 ppg with 10 asst. Yes the coolaid tastes good.

If this comes true, our bench would still have to score 35 points a night to get to 100 pts. First of all I don't think the bench should be in long enough to score 35 points, and I don't think we will have a good enough 2nd unit to do so every night.

I don't think that's cool aid you're drinking.

We will need more scoring from the starters.

 

[green]

If this comes true, our bench would still have to score 35 points a night to get to 100 pts. First of all I don't think the bench should be in long enough to score 35 points, and I don't think we will have a good enough 2nd unit to do so every night.

I don't think that's cool aid you're drinking.

We will need more scoring from the starters.

This is super interesting as well.

I'd put this as our averages:

Kanter - 15 pts
Favors - 12 pts
Burke - 19
Burks - 12
Hayward - 17

That's 75 pts a game. We would need 25 to get to 100. I could easily see Jefferson getting 10 (actually, I see Jefferson starting before long with Burks moving to the bench and Hayward sliding to the 2) and Rush getting 10. That right there is 95.

We COULD be a playoff team, but this team will live and die with Trey Burke. If he can get 19 and 6, we could be really, really good. If he ends up at 10 and 4, we will be awful. He controls the ball, he runs the offense, and he is probably our best ball handler-get-into-the-lane guy.

I've thought that Favors would be our big jump in scoring, and doing something along the lines of 18 pts with 46% fg, but the more I look at what Burke did in college, and the type of game he has, and he will be able to run the P&R with Favors and Kanter, but then he will be surrounded by legit shooters (Hayward, Rush, Jefferson and even Burks) he will be allowed to get into the lane a lot. If he can finish in the paint and get fouled, then that completely changes this team. Completely.

Bench could be good or terrible. It depends on Rush and Jefferson. If they can average 20 together, then the bench is pretty good.

The PG position is key. It will be interesting to see what Utah does with that position. We don't really have a good backup right now. What does Corbin do? Does he run Burke 35 mins, Burks 5 mins and Lucas 2?

We have potential, but it all comes down to Burke. We will go as far as he carries us. If he struggles to start the year, yikes, that could be scary.

 

[mncstr]

I just don't think that Burke will our leading scorer this year. Especially if he actually does what he says he learned from John Stockton over the summer -- that is get the other guys involved first and then your shot will come. I kind of agree with the 75 points for the starters, however, but with Burke more in the 12-13 range and the other points going to the other 4.

 

[b_line]

This is super interesting as well.

I'd put this as our averages:

Kanter - 15 pts
Favors - 12 pts
Burke - 19
Burks - 12
Hayward - 17

That's 75 pts a game. We would need 25 to get to 100. I could easily see Jefferson getting 10 (actually, I see Jefferson starting before long with Burks moving to the bench and Hayward sliding to the 2) and Rush getting 10. That right there is 95.

We COULD be a playoff team, but this team will live and die with Trey Burke. If he can get 19 and 6, we could be really, really good. If he ends up at 10 and 4, we will be awful. He controls the ball, he runs the offense, and he is probably our best ball handler-get-into-the-lane guy.

I've thought that Favors would be our big jump in scoring, and doing something along the lines of 18 pts with 46% fg, but the more I look at what Burke did in college, and the type of game he has, and he will be able to run the P&R with Favors and Kanter, but then he will be surrounded by legit shooters (Hayward, Rush, Jefferson and even Burks) he will be allowed to get into the lane a lot. If he can finish in the paint and get fouled, then that completely changes this team. Completely.

Bench could be good or terrible. It depends on Rush and Jefferson. If they can average 20 together, then the bench is pretty good.

The PG position is key. It will be interesting to see what Utah does with that position. We don't really have a good backup right now. What does Corbin do? Does he run Burke 35 mins, Burks 5 mins and Lucas 2?

We have potential, but it all comes down to Burke. We will go as far as he carries us. If he struggles to start the year, yikes, that could be scary.

Good hell, if Try Burke averages 19 points/game this year, he will be runaway rookie of the year, and probably an all star. 19 and 6 is Tony Parker numbers, and he was considered an MVP candidate.

 

[green]

Good hell, if Try Burke averages 19 points/game this year, he will be runaway rookie of the year, and probably an all star. 19 and 6 is Tony Parker numbers, and he was considered an MVP candidate.

Um...yup. That's what I said.

 

[LogGrad98]

Why should that be the max?

If he can go 30/18/5 at 50% I'd be even happier.

I thought the thread was what stats would be worth what salary level. For me these are the floor stats for max money. Higher is always better. Hell, lets have him put up 40/20/5 65% .5 TO. Yay!

 

[Jazz4ever]

This is super interesting as well.

I'd put this as our averages:

Kanter - 15 pts
Favors - 12 pts
Burke - 19
Burks - 12
Hayward - 17

That's 75 pts a game. We would need 25 to get to 100. I could easily see Jefferson getting 10 (actually, I see Jefferson starting before long with Burks moving to the bench and Hayward sliding to the 2) and Rush getting 10. That right there is 95.

We COULD be a playoff team, but this team will live and die with Trey Burke. If he can get 19 and 6, we could be really, really good. If he ends up at 10 and 4, we will be awful. He controls the ball, he runs the offense, and he is probably our best ball handler-get-into-the-lane guy.

I've thought that Favors would be our big jump in scoring, and doing something along the lines of 18 pts with 46% fg, but the more I look at what Burke did in college, and the type of game he has, and he will be able to run the P&R with Favors and Kanter, but then he will be surrounded by legit shooters (Hayward, Rush, Jefferson and even Burks) he will be allowed to get into the lane a lot. If he can finish in the paint and get fouled, then that completely changes this team. Completely.

Bench could be good or terrible. It depends on Rush and Jefferson. If they can average 20 together, then the bench is pretty good.

The PG position is key. It will be interesting to see what Utah does with that position. We don't really have a good backup right now. What does Corbin do? Does he run Burke 35 mins, Burks 5 mins and Lucas 2?

We have potential, but it all comes down to Burke. We will go as far as he carries us. If he struggles to start the year, yikes, that could be scary.

Burke is not getting 19 ppg, there is no chance. To my knowledge Lillard is the only rookie PG who has done that in the last decade, but he was 2 years older than Burke coming in and got near 40 minutes a game.

 

[green]

So, in the NBA, you get between 70-100 shots per game depending on the style of offense you are trying to run. The Jazz say they are going to try to run, and Burke is a pg that fits that. So, you would assume we would have more shots per game. Let's guess 90, a little higher than in the middle.

How do shots distribute? My guess would be this (last year's shots in parenthesis):

Burke - 15 (14) - I say 15. The kid is used to taking a lot of shots, and while he will be looking to pass more, he will get more opportunities for shots with a shorter shot clock
Burks - 8 (6)
Hayward - 14 (11)
Kanter - 12 (5)
Favors - 10 (7)

The starters equal 59 shots. That leaves 31 shots for the bench, which includes:

Biedrens - 4 (1)
Holiday - 4 (5)
Jefferson - 6 (4)
Rush - 8 (4)
Lucas - 5 (5)

That puts us up to 27 shots. That is probably pretty close to what each player takes, especially some of the vets (Lucas for example, took 5 shots last year and has taken 5 shots a year over his career).

Let's put shots with shooting percentages:

Burke - 46% and 38% in college. Those will probably drop a little as he adjusts to the game. 44% and 33%. He took 5 threes a game in college and took a lot of threes in summer league. I'd say he takes 3 three point attempts a game. Most nights, he probably goes 5 for 12. He averaged 4 fta per game in college. I bet that stays pretty consistent. Sooooo, you get 5-12 on twos, 1-3 on threes, and 3-4 on fts or 16 pts a night.

Burks - 8 shots a night, including 1 3pt. 2 fta. At 42% fg, 34% 3pt, and 70% ft, that puts him at 8 pts a game.

Hayward - 14 shots a night, including 4 threes, at 43%, 41%, 82%. That is 20 pts a night. This is a stretch. If Hayward blows up like this...wow.

Favors - 10 shots a night at 47% fg and 70% ft. I think his fg% drops a little from last year. I just don't see a big jump for him skill wise. 5 ft's per game. That gives him 14 pts a night.

Kanter - 12 shots a night at 49% fg and 80% ft. 4 fta's. That is 15 pts a night.

That is 73 pts from the starters (not far off my initial 75 guess). I don't think Hayward gets 20 a night. I don't think he is that aggressive and will lose some efficiency. I see Hayward around 16-17 pts a night. If you take out Burke, that puts the starters around 57 pts a night or 18 pts lower than where you would want them to be. This is why Burke is the key to Utah's season. If he averages 12 pts a night, that our team average is probably around 90 pts a night, it hurts other player's scoring (not having to respect Burke) and we lose a TON of games.

If Burke comes out on fire and get 18, then that puts our scoring around 100, other players are more efficient, and with our defense, we are probably a playoff team. It all comes down to Burke.

Also, I have been a big our bench sucks, but I don't know if it will be quite as bad as I thought. Jefferson is the key to our bench. If he can get back to 10 shots with 45%, then our bench is pretty good with Rush there as well.

 

[green]

Out of all my dribbling above, my point was this:

The season comes down to Trey Burke. We will go as far as he takes us. 12 pts and 4 assists, we suck. 18 and 6, we are awesome.

 

[Karadrys30]

Out of all my dribbling above, my point was this:

The season comes down to Trey Burke. We will go as far as he takes us. 12 pts and 4 assists, we suck. 18 and 6, we are awesome.

What happens if Trey gets 12pts and 9 assists? Liked your analysis by the way. Just want to change the factors and see what that does to your projected outcome.

I ask this because I don't see this team being a typical "contender". If they want to be in contention they will have to be a hydra on both ends of the court. We don't have a player that we can say "go get us 23 pts". But if everyone is a legit threat then it takes the pressure off one player and spreads it to the team.

 

[b_line]

Um...yup. That's what I said.

19 and 6 would be better than Derrick Rose as a rookie. Rose averaged like 16 and 6. Maybe we should temper our expectations a bit? I think Burke is going to be good, but I think if he averages like 12 and 6, I would call that a great campaign as a rookie, and hopefully he will top out around 9 assists and 16-18 points a game someday.

 

[green]

What happens if Trey gets 12pts and 9 assists? Liked your analysis by the way. Just want to change the factors and see what that does to your projected outcome.

I ask this because I don't see this team being a typical "contender". If they want to be in contention they will have to be a hydra on both ends of the court. We don't have a player that we can say "go get us 23 pts". But if everyone is a legit threat then it takes the pressure off one player and spreads it to the team.

Wow. 9 assists. That would be unreal. I think the only way he averages that is if Favors turns into a runner ala Malone and a beast on the P&R. I think in order for Burke to get 9 assists a game, Favors is getting 6 pts off fast breaks and Favors scoring goes up and hits right around 20 a night.

I just don't know if Favors/Kanter are good enough in the P&R and running the floor to give Burke the opportunity to average those type of assist numbers. Or if Burke is enough of a pass first guy. If he averages 12 and 9, we found a gem.

 

[green]

19 and 6 would be better than Derrick Rose as a rookie. Rose averaged like 16 and 6. Maybe we should temper our expectations a bit? I think Burke is going to be good, but I think if he averages like 12 and 6, I would call that a great campaign as a rookie, and hopefully he will top out around 9 assists and 16-18 points a game someday.

Again, I didn't place expectations. I'd be fine with 12 and 6. All I said was, in order for us think playoffs, Burke has to average a lot closer to 20 a night than 10. If Burke averages 12 and 6 I'd be very, very happy with those assist numbers (because I don't think he will get that many) and we would have a top 3 pick. Either way win, win.

The Jazz can't lose this year...unless they end up in the 9-11 range in the West. If they make the playoffs, great, they already have their pieces. If they get a top 3 pick, great, they get a chance at that guy.

My whole point was, the wins and losses of this team are probably more contingent on Burke than any other player. He could make us a playoff team or a high lottery team.

 

[b_line]

Again, I didn't place expectations. I'd be fine with 12 and 6. All I said was, in order for us think playoffs, Burke has to average a lot closer to 20 a night than 10. If Burke averages 12 and 6 I'd be very, very happy with those assist numbers (because I don't think he will get that many) and we would have a top 3 pick. Either way win, win.

The Jazz can't lose this year...unless they end up in the 9-11 range in the West. If they make the playoffs, great, they already have their pieces. If they get a top 3 pick, great, they get a chance at that guy.

My whole point was, the wins and losses of this team are probably more contingent on Burke than any other player. He could make us a playoff team or a high lottery team.

oh, ok. That totally makes sense. I didn't realize that you were saying if we wanted to be a playoff team this year. Burke at 19 and 6 would be epic though, even if we didnt make the playoffs.