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Tank move: Andrew Bynum

JimLes said:
So, since every free throw is an independent variable and prior free throws do not influence the outcome, you wouldn't pick Dirk over DeAndre Jordan to shoot a FT to win you money at half time?
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That's more of a question of skill than luck.

Wait, what is your point exactly?
 
JimLes said:
So, since every free throw is an independent variable and prior free throws do not influence the outcome, you wouldn't pick Dirk over DeAndre Jordan to shoot a FT to win you money at half time?
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It's about context. If your team has made 2 out of the last 10 FTs with Biedrins and Jordan shooting, does that mean you should avoid trying to get Dirk to the line because your other two stiffs sucked?

In other words, just because Cleveland blew it with Anthony, would we be guilty by association?
 
JimLes said:
No, it just shows that a number one pick isn't a "sure thing."
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Very true. Signing a superstar and/or trading for a superstar is also not just an unsure thing, but it's not even on the table. Or at the buffet.
 
Of course we could screw the pooch on the first pick. The point I'm arguing is that with the first choice then you can choose whoever you want without someone else selecting them first. Paul Pierce went 10th. That doesn't mean having the 10th pick is more likely to bring you a Paul Pierce than the 7th pick. In fact, the number 1 pick is more likely to land you a Paul Pierce than the #10 pick.

People keep seeming to think that draft position is the independent variable with all these guys that were either busts or didn't lead their team to a championship.

Essentially, what we're saying is that past coin flips will influence the outcome of our next coin flip.
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Damn, you were doing great until you got to the last two sentences.
 
I want to know jim les and grandpa jazz plan to become contenders
 
NUMBERICA said:
That's the idea. To make the team lose more games. Outside of that, what other things would NOT be equal moving forward? The Jazz could re-sign Williams whether he's here at the end of the year or not.
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Williams, from what I can tell, is a capable veteran, playing within our system and team concept, reinforcing the habits we want our players to have. Young players need that influence. We can't just trade him for anyone without losing that.
 
infection said:
The analogy is flatly wrong. That's exactly my point.
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You chose to make an argument you knew was bad?

infection said:
But Williams is being traded for the right to swap picks. Not for nothing. Oh, he's also being traded to lose more games, as a bonus byproduct.
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Well, i still haven't heard that Cleveland gets anything worthwhile in this trade. If we value the pick more than Williams and Burks, why wouldn't Cleveland?
 
One Brow said:
You chose to make an argument you knew was bad?
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I'm saying that we're approaching receiving the #1 pick as if it's as doomed as picking heads on a flip when the previous ten flips have been heads, as if past events somehow dictate future events.

Well, i still haven't heard that Cleveland gets anything worthwhile in this trade.
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Well, they get Burks. If you've been paying attention to any of the Burks talk around here... plus, Williams, from what I can tell, is a capable veteran, who could play within their system and team concept, reinforcing the habits they want their players to have. Young players need that influence. They can't just trade for anyone and get that.

If we value the pick more than Williams and Burks, why wouldn't Cleveland?
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I'm just spouting ideas out here, really. I'm not married to the trade (though I'd make it in a heartbeat). As you can see this trade is mostly unpopular, but great for us. Some people have some interesting biases that prevent them from seeing this objectively. You couldn't possibly relate to that, could you?
 
infection said:
Very true. Signing a superstar and/or trading for a superstar is also not just an unsure thing, but it's not even on the table. Or at the buffet.
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What is at the buffet though is a lottery pick. 1st, 2nd, 3rd....I'm not really too worried about which one. It's out of our hands anyway. We can't control how many games other teams lose, and we can't control the ping pong balls. Even with the worst record in the league, our chances of landing a top pick are 25%. Hell, only one team(Orlando) in the past 15 years finished with the worst record in the league and won the lottery.

To put it shortly, I think people are overstating the odds of landing the number one pick, as well as what that will bring. There are so many variables.

The quality of players - not every draft has multiple franchise players in it...some have none
The quality of scouting - never in my memory has there been a draft where the 5 players who eventually turned out to be best from that class were drafted 1-5...even the 2003 draft had Darko at 2
Intangibles - sometimes, you pick a can't-miss, NBA-ready, going-to-be-at-least-as-good-as-Clyde-Drexler guy, and he ODs on coke later that night...you can't control that
Injuries - whether it's eventually like Yao or right away like Jay Williams or Oden
LeBron factor - ok, so you avoid all this stuff, draft a Hall-of-Famer and he then leaves in free agency because you're a small market team...like the Jazz are

When you start with only 25% of getting that first pick, and add all these other factors, what are the odds of actually getting a player in this draft who will lead the Jazz to the championship. High enough for me to have no issue with us playing badly right now, but certainly low enough to not want to put all our eggs in one basket. There are people in this very thread proposing getting rid of just about anyone needed to finish last. Burks, for goodness' sakes! Just for the odd chance that we land the next Dirk or LeBron or Pierce. And for the much higher chance that we don't and end up with Anthony Bennett but without Burks. And possibly others, because you have no idea how blatant tanking will affect players. Yeah, let's sit Hayward because playing him might win us an extra 2 games, and then he leaves for Phoenix next summer.

People are acting like tanking would 100% ensure we get the second coming of Michael Jordan. And when they're asked, like you were, to back that up with statistics, then you beat a hasty retreat. All you can say is that according to your logic, picking first is better than picking second or third because it is. Why can't you then come up with numbers that show that? Or any numbers that would show significant benefit to drafting first as opposed to second. Oh, right. It's unrelated events.
 
JimLes said:
What is at the buffet though is a lottery pick. 1st, 2nd, 3rd....I'm not really too worried about which one. It's out of our hands anyway. We can't control how many games other teams lose, and we can't control the ping pong balls. Even with the worst record in the league, our chances of landing a top pick are 25%. Hell, only one team(Orlando) in the past 15 years finished with the worst record in the league and won the lottery.

To put it shortly, I think people are overstating the odds of landing the number one pick, as well as what that will bring. There are so many variables.

The quality of players - not every draft has multiple franchise players in it...some have none
The quality of scouting - never in my memory has there been a draft where the 5 players who eventually turned out to be best from that class were drafted 1-5...even the 2003 draft had Darko at 2
Intangibles - sometimes, you pick a can't-miss, NBA-ready, going-to-be-at-least-as-good-as-Clyde-Drexler guy, and he ODs on coke later that night...you can't control that
Injuries - whether it's eventually like Yao or right away like Jay Williams or Oden
LeBron factor - ok, so you avoid all this stuff, draft a Hall-of-Famer and he then leaves in free agency because you're a small market team...like the Jazz are

When you start with only 25% of getting that first pick, and add all these other factors, what are the odds of actually getting a player in this draft who will lead the Jazz to the championship. High enough for me to have no issue with us playing badly right now, but certainly low enough to not want to put all our eggs in one basket. There are people in this very thread proposing getting rid of just about anyone needed to finish last. Burks, for goodness' sakes! Just for the odd chance that we land the next Dirk or LeBron or Pierce. And for the much higher chance that we don't and end up with Anthony Bennett but without Burks. And possibly others, because you have no idea how blatant tanking will affect players. Yeah, let's sit Hayward because playing him might win us an extra 2 games, and then he leaves for Phoenix next summer.

People are acting like tanking would 100% ensure we get the second coming of Michael Jordan. And when they're asked, like you were, to back that up with statistics, then you beat a hasty retreat. All you can say is that according to your logic, picking first is better than picking second or third because it is. Why can't you then come up with numbers that show that? Or any numbers that would show significant benefit to drafting first as opposed to second. Oh, right. It's unrelated events.
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I'm headed to bed at the moment so I'll address the other issues later, but as far as the bolded, I have no idea of we've been reason the same thread. If you could point me to where this has been discussed (sincerely) then is appreciate it. As far as what you're looking for, perhaps this may be a start:


bordelais7 said:
https://www.82games.com/barzilai1.htm
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Can I get a plan from granpa or jim les for the jazz being contenders?
 
Its all good. We all want the same thing do we not? For the Jazz to progress and build a team that challenges for a title again. Just because we have different ideas about how to get there is unimportant (not to mention useless). I too want as high a pick as we can legitimately get. I hope it's the right pick and that player can quickly become a great player. But we need a framework of a team for him to join. All we can do is watch and wait and hope the right things happen. As far as a plan from Grandpa for making the Jazz contenders? Many times i have spelled out what i think should be done. We need some luck in the draft, develop the best young pieces we now have and pick up any free agents we can who are appropriate. In short use all avenues to get better, not just one. No hard feelings i hope. I do respect your opinions and your motivations for having those opinions. We are not so far apart as it seems.
 
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JimLes said:
Why, are you going to jump off the team wagon if they're not?
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When did I say I would jump off the wagon?

Does a parent stop loving thier child just because they aren't the best at something? Of course not.
But most parents would love for thier child to have as much success as possible.




Good plan you came up with btw
 
Grandpa Jazz said:
Its all good. We all want the same thing do we not? For the Jazz to progress and build a team that challenges for a title again. Just because we have different ideas about how to get there is unimportant (not to mention useless). I too want as high a pick as we can legitimately get. I hope it's the right pick and that player can quickly become a great player. But we need a framework of a team for him to join. All we can do is watch and wait and hope the right things happen. As far as a plan from Grandpa for making the Jazz contenders? Many times i have spelled out what i think should be done. We need some luck in the draft, develop the best young pieces we now have and pick up any free agents we can who are appropriate. In short use all avenues to get better, not just one. No hard feelings i hope. I do respect your opinions and your motivations for having those opinions. We are not so far apart as it seems.
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Good post gramps
Much love
 
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