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The *official* Election Day Game Thread!

Gameface said:
The NYT had 3 states picked out to watch saying that without all of them Trump was very likely to lose, Florida, North Carolina and Georgia. Before results started rolling in they believed Biden would win two of the three. Now the most likely outcome is that Trump takes all three. That doesn't mean Trump is favored to win, but those were essentially must-win states if Trump was going to have a chance. So it's looking like as of right now he still has a chance.

Someone else chime in, if PA and OH go Biden does Trump still have a chance?
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Whoever wins PA most likely wins the election.
 
Gameface said:
The NYT had 3 states picked out to watch saying that without all of them Trump was very likely to lose, Florida, North Carolina and Georgia. Before results started rolling in they believed Biden would win two of the three. Now the most likely outcome is that Trump takes all three. That doesn't mean Trump is favored to win, but those were essentially must-win states if Trump was going to have a chance. So it's looking like as of right now he still has a chance.

Someone else chime in, if PA and OH go Biden does Trump still have a chance?
Click to expand...
How about Texas?
 
This ain’t looking great for Biden...
 
Yo dudes, been a while.

Fox currently giving an 89% probability for Biden to take it.

But that takes into account pre-election polling in states where polling is still open.

www.foxnews.com

Probability Dials | Elections 2020 | Fox News

Follow the latest race results, candidates, and events leading up to the 2020 Presidential Election.
www.foxnews.com www.foxnews.com
 
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I think someone made a thread one month ago about a requirement to include minority groups in Boards of Directors. Someone said that if your parents are from Mexico, you must be latino, to which I reply that the concept of latino is way more complex than that. Oftentimes, latinos will identify themselves as whites or other ethnic groups. I found this comment on 538 quite interesting:

...While we’re trying to make sense of Florida results, one interesting (and potentially complicating) point is the changing nature of ethnic identification. A study by Pew shows that Latino identification tends to decline across generations. This “assimilation” into white identity could affect the relationship between the Latino vote and the Republican Party in the future...

Analysts are scratching their heads by the latino vote, like it's somehow a unified ethnic group with similar political views. Heck, there are more than 20 nationalities thrown into that category, with 100s of different ethnicities and several races. Maybe future candidates will understand this a bit better...
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
This ain’t looking great for Biden...
Click to expand...

fishonjazz said:
Agreed.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using JazzFanz mobile app
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Gee. If only someone would have said, “hey, ignore all this nonsense polling making you believe that certain states are in play that aren’t in play. Trump’s chances hinge on either Pennsylvania or one of Michigan/Wisconsin.”


infection said:
I believe Trump will win, but it will be close. I believe if he wins the electoral vote, he will also win the popular vote this time around. There are a number of reasons here, but here are some general things:
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infection said:
- When Trump won he was largely unpopular within the Republican party. While there are still never Trumpers, I believe a number of people who were vehemently against him have reverted (people like Glenn Beck, Ben Shapiro, and Erik Erikson are good popular examples). Comparatively, I don't think there are many who voted for him who this time are not. Of course there are examples of people who fit this category, but what I'm speaking to is that the comparison between those who didn't vote for him last time (who are Republican/conservative) is larger than the groups of those who did vote for him (Republican/conservative) that won't vote for him this time. I believe he's expanded his base. Those who voted for him last time are still likely to vote for him, while those who were reluctant to vote for him on average are now much more enthusiastic.

- I believe he has expanded his base among minorities. I expect to see his percentage of minority vote to expand. He got about 8% of the black vote last time, and I wouldn't be surprised if this increases to 14%.

- I've always heard people say Trump won because voting overall was down in 2016. I'm not certain where that idea came from because the voting totals were appropriately high, but more importantly the total % of voting age people voting was higher than the previous election. So the hope is that there's enough people who don't like Trump that they'll be motivated to show up. To do so would require much higher turnout, which obviously is a new variable with more states sending out ballots, so we will have to see with that. But I think the unspoken implication is that those who didn't vote overwhelmingly would go for Biden, and that's a theory that's about to be tested. I do believe that Trump winning could have also encouraged many people who didn't vote Trump but support him to realize that he could win, despite what was the overwhelming consensus that he could not in 2016. I just don't know that there's enough movement to vote against Trump and there is to vote for him, and I think the latter is more motivating for people. Of all the people who strongly oppose Trump, how many of those individuals sat out the last election?

Of the battle-ground states, I believe he gets Florida and Ohio for sure. I think it's silly people are talking about Arizona, Texas, Iowa and Georgia. He gets those. I'm not certain about North Carolina. What it will really come down to is if he can keep any of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and/or Wisconsin. I'm less optimistic about those. He has to pull out one of those to win, unless he's flipping a couple surprises like a Nevada.
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infection said:
Gee. If only someone would have said, “hey, ignore all this nonsense polling making you believe that certain states are in play that aren’t in play. Trump’s chances hinge on either Pennsylvania or one of Michigan/Wisconsin.”
Click to expand...
In my defense you did not personally tell me directly.
 
Some Trump poetry to break up the tension:

"I never understood wind.
You know, I know
windmills very much.
I have studied it
better than anybody
else. It’s very expensive.
They are made in China
and Germany mostly.
—Very few made here, almost none,
but they are manufactured, tremendous
—if you are into this—
tremendous fumes. Gases are
spewing into the atmosphere. You know
we have a world
right?
So the world
is tiny
compared to the universe.
So tremendous, tremendous
amount of fumes and everything.
You talk about
the carbon footprint
— fumes are spewing into the air.
Right? Spewing.
Whether it’s in China,
Germany, it’s going into the air.
It’s our air
their air
everything — right?
A windmill will kill many bald eagles.
After a certain number
they make you turn the windmill off.
That is true.
—By the way
they make you turn it off.
And yet, if you killed one
they put you in jail.
That is OK.
You want to see a bird graveyard?
You just go.
Take a look.
A bird graveyard.
Go under a windmill someday,
you’ll see
more birds
than you’ve ever seen
in your life."
~ D. Trump
12/21/2019
 
This game thread being dead tells you what you need to know.
 
infection said:
Gee. If only someone would have said, “hey, ignore all this nonsense polling making you believe that certain states are in play that aren’t in play. Trump’s chances hinge on either Pennsylvania or one of Michigan/Wisconsin.”
Click to expand...

Why you talking to me? I never predicted **** or talked about any states being in play.
I also don't recall HH doing any predicting or talking about certain states being in play.
Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using JazzFanz mobile app
 
@infection you gonna get a big *** Trump flag and drive your jacked-up truck around town letting everyone know how smart you are if Trump wins? That would be so boss!
 
There have been no flips yet. As in, no state that went for Trump in 2016 have gone to Biden. Also, no state that went for Clinton have flipped for Trump.
 
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