What's new

The results of loosening gun restrictions

Missouri Murder Rates per 100,000 (US rate in parentheses)

2003 5.05 (5.7)
2004 6.15 (5.5)
2005 6.93 (5.6)
2006 6.30 (5.7)
2007 6.55 (5.6)
2008 7.66 (5.4)
2009 6.46 (5.0)
2010 7.00 (4.8)
2011 6.09 (4.7)
2012 6.46 (4.7)

View attachment 3185

This would be a lot more compelling had the law been passed in 2003.

A link to the official press release of the study:
https://www.jhsph.edu/news/news-rel...sociated-with-increase-in-states-murders.html

Missouri has about 6,000,000 people. A per-100,000 rate of 6 means about 360 murders/year. By contrast, the study finds an increase of "55 to 63 murders per year in Missouri between 2008 and 2012", so let's say 60. That's a 20% increase, but the ress release only claims "a sixteen percent increase in Missouri's murder rate". Do your numbers bear that out?

Using the averages from period of 2004-2007, versus 2008-2011, the Missouri murder rate went up 4.9%, versus the national rate going down 11.5%, making a 16.4% difference in the amount of change. Including 2003 and 2012 in each average raises that to 20.4%. So, the numbers you have offered support the result of the study.

Or if the conclusion wasn't largely based on a one-year spike (maybe the bad guys forgot about the new laws after a year). Or if there was more statistical significance. Or if there weren't a hundred other variables to control for in such a study. I'm curious why they chose Missouri and not Michigan or California.

It's not based on a one-year spike. I doubt you can name the statistical significance you are disparaging. Rather than wave your hand, name some of the variables you think were not controlled for, and that would make a difference here. You didn't mention any major changes in the Michigan or California gun laws in or around 2007. What were they?
 
Do you think they were significantly different in Missouri than in Iowa, Kansas, Illinois, etc.? Significantly different between 2006 and 2009?

It seemed that using an absolute number (the increase of 60 homicides) was not as meaningful as using a rate or some relative number. Bordy's chart (homicide rate per 100,000 population) is more meaningful to me.
 
Murders rates are down in 3 of the 5 years since 2007 (using 2007 as the base).

I guess the bad guys legally obtained guns in 2007 when they may not have been able to otherwise, shot up their enemies, then put the guns away.
 
You going to make us a pie when you're done picking all them cherries?

Why did Missouri murder rates increase by ~30% from 2003 to 2007 while the national trend was to hold steady?

Please explain using only relevant legislation which was passed, or using the factors of change in policing, incarceration, burglaries, unemployment, or poverty.

While you are responding, I will be working on the lattice for my pie. Maybe we can swap recipes after this ironically fruitless exercise.

---------------

p.s., I'm (conveniently?) leaving for the next couple of days, so feel free to simply not respond and we'll call you the victor. I'm fine with that.
 
Murders rates are down in 3 of the 5 years since 2007 (using 2007 as the base).

I guess the bad guys legally obtained guns in 2007 when they may not have been able to otherwise, shot up their enemies, then put the guns away.

One Brow's response: look at the delta

based on this data:

2003 5.05 (5.7)
2004 6.15 (5.5)
2005 6.93 (5.6)
2006 6.30 (5.7)
2007 6.55 (5.6)
2008 7.66 (5.4)
2009 6.46 (5.0)
2010 7.00 (4.8)
2011 6.09 (4.7)
2012 6.46 (4.7)

The difference in the MO rate vs. the US rate becomes

2003 -0.65
2004 0.65
2005 1.33
2006 0.60
2007 0.95
2008 2.26
2009 1.46
2010 2.20
2011 1.39
2012 1.76

So, relatively sustained difference post-2007, although appears to be at least slightly trending towards catching back up to the national average.

Those numbers are probably far more mathematically precise than they deserve to be, but since I don't know the exact statistical significance I can't say that for certain.
 
You going to make us a pie when you're done picking all them cherries?

Why did Missouri murder rates increase by ~30% from 2003 to 2007 while the national trend was to hold steady?

So, you are starting from 2003, and then accusing me of cherry-picking?

https://www.disastercenter.com/crime/mocrimn.htm

2000 6.2
2001 6.6
2002 5.8
2003 5.1
2004 6.1
2005 6.9
2006 6.3

Murder rates went from an abnormal low in 2003 back to the normal levels in 2004.

Please explain using only relevant legislation which was passed, or using the factors of change in policing, incarceration, burglaries, unemployment, or poverty.

Since the answer is statistical variance and the regression to the mean, none of those factors apply.

While you are responding, I will be working on the lattice for my pie. Maybe we can swap recipes after this ironically fruitless exercise.

You posted data supporting the position you were arguing against, and then after choosing what was an ideal year for you to form a counter-argument, accused me of cherry-picking. I agree, that was pointless.

Further, based on previous posts, instead of just acknowledging any of this, you'll probably accusing me of twisting things around and distorting what you said, although you won't bother to post it. That will also be pointless.

p.s., I'm (conveniently?) leaving for the next couple of days, so feel free to simply not respond and we'll call you the victor. I'm fine with that.

There's nothing to win. If the evidence supported your position, I'f have been happy to revise what I said.

One Brow's response: look at the delta

based on this data:

2000 6.2 (5.5)
2001 6.6 (5.6)
2002 5.8 (5.6)
2003 5.05 (5.7)
2004 6.15 (5.5)
2005 6.93 (5.6)
2006 6.30 (5.7)
2007 6.55 (5.6)
2008 7.66 (5.4)
2009 6.46 (5.0)
2010 7.00 (4.8)
2011 6.09 (4.7)
2012 6.46 (4.7)

The difference in the MO rate vs. the US rate becomes

2000 0.7
2001 1.0
2002 0.2
2003 -0.65
2004 0.65
2005 1.33
2006 0.60
2007 0.95
2008 2.26
2009 1.46
2010 2.20
2011 1.39
2012 1.76

So, relatively sustained difference post-2007, although appears to be at least slightly trending towards catching back up to the national average.

Supplemented with data from https://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm.

It will be interesting to see what 2013 add to the data.
 
It seemed that using an absolute number (the increase of 60 homicides) was not as meaningful as using a rate or some relative number. Bordy's chart (homicide rate per 100,000 population) is more meaningful to me.

The press release gives an increase of roughly 16%.
 
Murders rates are down in 3 of the 5 years since 2007 (using 2007 as the base).

I guess the bad guys legally obtained guns in 2007 when they may not have been able to otherwise, shot up their enemies, then put the guns away.

There were only two years after 2005 that were higher than 2005. Would you say they put away their guns after 2005, or that is an effect of choosing the highest year prior to 2007. 2007 was also an above-average year for the period of 2000-2007.


Just for reference, according to this gun shop, the law took effect Aug. 28, 2007.

https://www.topgunss.com/procedures.htm
 
Maybe I am confused but I am not seeing how the per 100k numbers from a time significantly before and then after the legislation is not valid. I also do not see how that data supports the findings of the study. According to the normalized data, the rates have statistically been flat over the past 8 years, with a spike in 2008 followed by a decrease. I'm not sure why I shouldn't believe that data as opposed to an absolute rate of increase that does not normalize for relative population density. If I normalize for every other factor imaginable, but my population increases by let's just say 30%, I would expect a more or less 30% increase in whatever the variable is in the base number (or 20 or 5 or whatever the increase or decrease may be), but if I normalize for potential population changes then the resulting variable shows a more meaningful result. Pulling the number on a per 100k basis is a very easy, valid, and meaningful way to normalize that data. Bottom line, more people = more stuff happening.

The mean of the data for the per 100k numbers is overall 6.47, if you exclude 2003 (which would potentially be an outlier anyway), then the mean is 6.62, with a stand dev of .5, so none of the numbers are more than 2 standard deviations from the mean, and the trendline is nearly flat. So without breaking out minitab or anything there is really no meaningful statistical change no matter how you slice it, unless there is another way to normalize the data that shows a more striking increase over the time frame in question. From 2008 to 2012 on a per 100k basis there is statistically no change like the rest of the data, at least not from those few data points provided as the annualized numbers. If fact if you simply trend the numbers from 2008 on the overall trend is down.

The other thing is that in that press release they do not say what was used to commit those extra murders. It does not appear to claim an increase in gun-related homicides only, and it does not point that out. It would be interesting to see how the rates change by type of weapon used or method used. They do mention at the beginning of another paragraph that "the increase in murders with firearms in Missouri", but where they mentioned the increased number they made no mention of firearms. So they won't put a hard number to firearm deaths, but will allude to it later on. Standard spin technique.

It looks more like a case of spin the outcome to me. Look at this quote:

"There is strong evidence to support the idea that the repeal of Missouri's handgun purchaser licensing law contributed to dozens of additional murders in Missouri each year since the law was changed."

If they had statistically meaningful data that proved the assertion they wouldn't soften the statement with words like "support" and "contributed".

I would be interested in seeing the data behind the study and their actual findings instead of propaganda.
 
Maybe I am confused but I am not seeing how the per 100k numbers from a time significantly before and then after the legislation is not valid. I also do not see how that data supports the findings of the study. According to the normalized data, the rates have statistically been flat over the past 8 years, with a spike in 2008 followed by a decrease.

Nationwide, there was just a decrease, with no spike in 2008. So, this description is pretty much in-line with what the press summary says about the paper.

I'm not sure why I shouldn't believe that data as opposed to an absolute rate of increase that does not normalize for relative population density. If I normalize for every other factor imaginable, but my population increases by let's just say 30%, I would expect a more or less 30% increase in whatever the variable is in the base number (or 20 or 5 or whatever the increase or decrease may be), but if I normalize for potential population changes then the resulting variable shows a more meaningful result. Pulling the number on a per 100k basis is a very easy, valid, and meaningful way to normalize that data. Bottom line, more people = more stuff happening.

So, you would prefer to talk about the increase as being per 100,000.

The mean of the data for the per 100k numbers is overall 6.47, if you exclude 2003 (which would potentially be an outlier anyway), then the mean is 6.62, with a stand dev of .5, so none of the numbers are more than 2 standard deviations from the mean, and the trendline is nearly flat. So without breaking out minitab or anything there is really no meaningful statistical change no matter how you slice it, unless there is another way to normalize the data that shows a more striking increase over the time frame in question. From 2008 to 2012 on a per 100k basis there is statistically no change like the rest of the data, at least not from those few data points provided as the annualized numbers. If fact if you simply trend the numbers from 2008 on the overall trend is down..

You don't just throw out outliers, unless you have a good reason to think they are wrong.

Nationwide, the trend is also down. The authors are not, to my knowledge, claiming an increasing effect over time, just a one-time shift that sees no counter-shift.

The other thing is that in that press release they do not say what was used to commit those extra murders. .

It's a press release about a paper. If the paper does not justify the summary, the authors will lose a lot of credibility. In particular, if the summary claims firearm deaths, and then the paper only looks at overall deaths, the authors will be exposing themselves to significant criticism for no good reason.

If they had statistically meaningful data that proved the assertion they wouldn't soften the statement with words like "support" and "contributed"..

Those are exactly the words I would expect in a scientific paper, particulary in the social sciences. Bold statements are rare.

I would be interested in seeing the data behind the study and their actual findings instead of propaganda.

I agree, it will be interesting.
 

Just one example of the quality of this link:

40+% of households own guns.
0.5% of households used a gun in the previous year because "almost certainly would have been killed" if they "had not used a gun for protection."
There is no evidence at all the homes without guns have a lower murder rate than homes in the same neighborhood with guns.

Something does not add up.
 
OB, since I don't really know your stance on firearms? So, could you please tell me? Are you anti-gun?
 
For the record im not anti gun or pro gun.

I think that there should be restrictions on who can have a gun, which there are.

I have a 9 millimeter and a 22

My brothers and dad have lots of guns and hunt everything.

I have not shot my guns in years and if i didnt have em my life wouldnt change a bit
 
OB, since I don't really know your stance on firearms? So, could you please tell me? Are you anti-gun?

I don't know enough about guns to have a solid, detailed opinion on them. My closest experience to them is when one of my mother's friends was shot outside our back yard. I've never owned a gun, and never felt the need to own one. Frankly, if someone is so fearful that they think they need a gun for self-defense, I'm more worried about the owner than the intruder. I have seen no convincing arguments that gun owners are safer from crimes.

On the other hand, many people on this forum describe that they go to some length to keep their guns safe, to keep themselves properly trained, etc. They are quick to condemn owners who handle guns sloppily or store them carelessly. I find it hard to object to people who follow these procedures owning guns. I have no objection to hunting with guns, training with guns, etc.

My current line of thinking is that gun ownership should be more of a privilege that you earn than a right you have to lose, but it's not set in stone.

The author of the original post has some recommendations to reduce gun deaths:
1) No gun sales to people who have two or more convictions involving alcohol or other illegal drugs
2) Minimum age of 21
3) No gun sales to felons

These seem like reasonable restrictions to me.
 
Somehow they need to get at the mental health of individuals that commit gun crimes. It seems more often than not they talk about the treatment the person had been undergoing, often including psychoactive drugs. Yet almost none of the restrictions recommended for legislation get at the real 800 lb gorilla in the room. It is all about not giving guns to criminals, which is a bit of a "duh", but what about those with a history of mental illness but no real criminal past who snap and go into a school firing a 9 MM at everything that moves. I would have to look it up, but it seems it is rarely the case that a recidivist felon is responsible for shooting up a school. Most often it seems it is the quiet kid that never showed any signs of aggression, who by the way was on 4 different anti-psychotic and anti-depression meds for the past 8 years. When will that become part of the equation?
 
That said I think it would be reasonable to expect a psych eval of some kind to own a gun. No history of psychotic episodes or suicidal behaviors to own a gun.
 
I don't know enough about guns to have a solid, detailed opinion on them. My closest experience to them is when one of my mother's friends was shot outside our back yard. I've never owned a gun, and never felt the need to own one. Frankly, if someone is so fearful that they think they need a gun for self-defense, I'm more worried about the owner than the intruder. I have seen no convincing arguments that gun owners are safer from crimes.

On the other hand, many people on this forum describe that they go to some length to keep their guns safe, to keep themselves properly trained, etc. They are quick to condemn owners who handle guns sloppily or store them carelessly. I find it hard to object to people who follow these procedures owning guns. I have no objection to hunting with guns, training with guns, etc.

My current line of thinking is that gun ownership should be more of a privilege that you earn than a right you have to lose, but it's not set in stone.

The author of the original post has some recommendations to reduce gun deaths:
1) No gun sales to people who have two or more convictions involving alcohol or other illegal drugs
2) Minimum age of 21
3) No gun sales to felons

These seem like reasonable restrictions to me.

I appreciate the response, OB.

I've had two paradigm shifts in my life. The first was "abandoning" my belief in a higher power and becoming an Atheist. I did this after 20 or so years of being brought up Roman Catholic. The second was changing my stance on gun rights and gun ownership. I never had any sort of interaction with guns when I was younger or even in my teenage years but what changed my mind or what helped change my mind was my deciding on where I was going to draw my morality from now that I was an Atheist. I still follow the teachings of Jesus -- how could you not? He's hard to argue against -- but I also looked to our Constitution and the Declaration of Independence. The concept of first principle and inalienable rights made me think long and hard about gun rights and how this affected the right to life and the right to freedom and liberty.

Anyway, reaching certain personal conclusions, I started reading whatever I could in regards to firearm ownership and safety. Massad Ayoob's In The Gravest Extreme was the game changer for me. Also, over the years, I read material from both sides of the argument and have always come to the conclusion that the right to keep and bear arms was deemed necessary by our forefather's for reasons of first principle. Furthermore, I do not think it was a coincidence that it was the 2nd amendment and came directly after language describing the ideas of a free society.

In regards to your "current line of thinking," while you may want that to be the case, it's not. Driving a car, though this can be debated, is a privilege afforded to you by the state and not a right given to you by the supreme law of the land as the right to bear arms truly is.

There should be restrictions, sure, and many of them I agree with but the idea that we can send our 18 year olds to fight in a foreign land for, presumably, the rights of others, but not allow them the right to defend themselves in their own country seems ill formed. Also, someone who gets two convictions as a result of using marijuana but has no violent crime record still deserves the right to defend themselves in my opinion.

Reaffirming my position was just using common sense when reading news stories dealing gun issues.

Your opening paragraph referenced this common idea that gun owners are fearful or worried but yet these same adjectives are never used on people who regularly use their seat belts or wear cycling helmets. For instance, I don't wear my seat belt or cycling helmet because I'm worried or fearful of crashing or falling every time I drive my car or ride my bicycle, I wear them just in case. Examples of defensive gun use are plenty and happen everyday in this country. They're their if you want to see them.
 
Somehow they need to get at the mental health of individuals that commit gun crimes. It seems more often than not they talk about the treatment the person had been undergoing, often including psychoactive drugs. Yet almost none of the restrictions recommended for legislation get at the real 800 lb gorilla in the room. It is all about not giving guns to criminals, which is a bit of a "duh", but what about those with a history of mental illness but no real criminal past who snap and go into a school firing a 9 MM at everything that moves. I would have to look it up, but it seems it is rarely the case that a recidivist felon is responsible for shooting up a school. Most often it seems it is the quiet kid that never showed any signs of aggression, who by the way was on 4 different anti-psychotic and anti-depression meds for the past 8 years. When will that become part of the equation?

It doesn't become part of the equation because the initial knee jerk reaction is what's wanted not thought based in common sense.
 
In regards to your "current line of thinking," while you may want that to be the case, it's not. Driving a car, though this can be debated, is a privilege afforded to you by the state and not a right given to you by the supreme law of the land as the right to bear arms truly is.

While the Supreme Court recently ruled otherwise, I remain of the opinion that the first clause of the Second Amendment was intended to describe the scope of that right, as opposed to being background static.

Also, someone who gets two convictions as a result of using marijuana but has no violent crime record still deserves the right to defend themselves in my opinion.

What's a few extra bodies along the way, right?

Your opening paragraph referenced this common idea that gun owners are fearful or worried but yet these same adjectives are never used on people who regularly use their seat belts or wear cycling helmets.

Odd, I regularly hear this, although perhaps phrased differently. "Watch out for other drivers". "People here don't know how to drive on snow". "Drive defensively". These are all fear-based messages. The difference is that wearing a seat belt does not make it more likely to be in a car accident; owning a gun does make fatal accidents more common.

Examples of defensive gun use are plenty and happen everyday in this country. They're their if you want to see them.

If they are so prevalent, you should be able to find studies where you go into the same neighborhood, look at the crime statistics comparing gun owners in that neighborhood with non-gun owners, do this over a wide number of neighborhoods, and show a trend that the gun owners are safer. Organizations like the CDC would be well-suited for this task. Wouldn't it be nice to have actual science to back up either side of this discussion? However, they are not allowed to, because organizations like the NRA have pushed for, and gotten passed, laws that prevent the CDC from collecting these types of statistics.They seem to feel it's in their favor to not have these studies done. Why do you think that is?

I read some descriptions of the book you mentioned, and it seems to be a how-to-carry, as opposed to being an argument for carrying. If I ever actually carry a gun, I'll look into it.
 
Back
Top