The tank will last another year - Randy Rigby

[green]

I don't think DL even knows what we are doing yet. I imagine he has multiple paths laid out and depending on how draft night goes he will take the appropriate path. Too many ifs are in play to speculate on next years wins.

This.

 

[Stifle Tower]

The tank could be on next year. We know the Jazz aren't going to spend much money on free agents unless they can extend Burks and Kanter on the cheap (unlikely). That means we will have players of RJ or Marvin's level again. Along with the internal development and our pick, that doesn't add up to more than 5 more wins. If it does, then some player has emerged as all star worthy and we are all happy.

Why would they insist on extending them "on the cheap?" Favors was paid market price and they offered Hayward a pretty good deal; he just wanted more. I think they have a pretty good idea of what Burks can do. Kanter is a bit of a mystery. Maybe they let Enes show them he is motivated and wants to be an impact player on both ends of the court before offering a big contract.

Assume Hayward bounces back to his career averages. Assume the Jazz have an NBA quality PG for their first 15 games. Assume there is more depth on the bench. That alone is worth a 10 win improvement. And 10 wins is also assuming a) same coach; b) disastrous last 1 1/2 months to the season with players clearly not caring; 3) no improvement from anyone else (particularly Burke who is shooting like crap).

I'd say 35 wins is minimum for Utah and they SHOULD, with a quality rookie, better X's and O's coach and 1-2 decent FA's, be - to steal a phrase - "close enough" to .500 next season. Jazz WILL sign FA's or make a trade for a veteran or two. They have to in order to get to the salary floor. Their record won't be good enough for the playoffs, but they'll land in the 12-14 range with their pick.

 

[Stoked]

NBA teams like the Jazz do not improve 22 games in one year. You are being overly optimistic. I hope that the Jazz only bring back Hayward and perhaps Diante. Bringing back Marvin would be a big mistake especially if the Jazz draft a PF or a Center. I do not want Favors or Kanter to lose minutes to Wiliams. I wouldn't bring in FA next year because the Jazz are still going to suck next year.

My estimate of a 20ish game leap was dependent on the Jazz striking it big in the lottery, a new coach and staff and the Jazz landing some decent FAs to shore up the bench and rotations.

Only then can I see a potential 20 game leap in wins.

I doubt we fight for playoffs but you never know. More likely is the Jazz win 34-38 games and we pick around 10-12 next year.

 

[mncstr]

It would be difficult to watch another tank year. I know it might be best, but as mentioned before, at what point do we end up tanking year after year and become like Sacramento or Minnesota? And when we tank, we want the best draft pick possible, which means lots of losing. If our players make so little progress that we're again in contention for a top pick, I think we're in long term trouble.

I share season tickets (20 games) and have already paid for next year's tickets. I'm still comitted to the tank this year, but the last 15 games or so have been difficult to watch (either live or on tv). I have given away more tickets this year than any other year because it's not fun to watch when you want them to lose.

I'm hoping we get lucky in the draft, get a new coach, get a couple of decent (not reclamation projects) free agents and become more like Phoenix this year. Yeah, that's a lot to hope for....

 

[Stifle Tower]

^^Agree with stoked. A record of 38-44 is "close enough" to .500.

Could also see Fakers Luck scenario play out. Use all their picks, sign Hayward, bring Neto over and the Jazz would have $43-$44M in guaranteed contracts for 11 players (not counting JLIII, Garrett, Thomas and Clark). I could be wrong, but that would leave around $15M in cap space to either keep those 4 under contract, add FA's or make trades. Lindsey could either bring on salary filler in exchange for future assets like he did with GS or try to traed some assets for good FA's as Rigby pointed out. It really depends on what kind of deals Dennis is offered.

In any case, Lindsey probably finds some way to at least hit the salary floor, even if that means signing a player or two to a 1-yr deal.

I don't think you have anything to fear, mncstr. Even going young by using all our draft picks and not signing veterans to replace RJ and MW will not result in another 23-25 win season. This team WILL grow. The bench would be stronger by virtue of having a high pick and another quality backup with the GS pick. Jazz will NOT have JLIII and Tinsley leading the team for 15 games and Utah will NOT quit with 1 1/2 months left in the season.

 

[silesian]

Huh?

Quotes from his interview last night:

"Rome wasn't built in a day"

"It's going to take some time"

"We are going to find a really good player this offseason. Most likely he will be between 19-22 years old"

"We will need patience with that new player"

"Trey Burke was a top 3-4 player in his draft"...Trey is still young, and he's hit some walls from time to time."

"This young player we are going to get is going to have some growing pains as well."

"There is still going to be some growth, and there's still going to be some patience that we will have to have"

Here is the interview:

https://1280thezone.com/index.php/audio/listen/the_big_show_utah_jazz_president_randy_rigby35

The quotes start at the 19 minute mark.

Since "tank" means "lose on purpose" none of these quotes even remotely suggests this notion. They will be trying to get better and will lose because we are very young and playing developing players, not because we are trying to lose.

 

[green]

Argh. You can lose on purpose by the people you sign and develop players at the same time.

 

[green]

For those that think our players will continue to develop, forget that. Look at our players:

Burke: Rookie. Should get better
Burks: Finishing up his third year. Odds are, he is rubbing his head against the ceiling.
Hayward: Finishing up his fourth year. Odds are, he is at his ceiling.
Favors: Finishing up his fourth year. Probably not improving.
Kanter: Third year. Again, he could get better, or his commitment to defense is so poor, he is at his ceiling.

Gobert is probably a year away from contributing.

Where is all this improvement going to come from? Also, throw Kanter and Burks in the starting lineup and your last place defense might actually get worse.

Soooooooooooooooooooo, don't expect too much improvement. There should be some, but not 15-20 games worth of improvement.

 

[Stoked]

For those that think our players will continue to develop, forget that. Look at our players:

Burke: Rookie. Should get better
Burks: Finishing up his third year. Odds are, he is rubbing his head against the ceiling.
Hayward: Finishing up his fourth year. Odds are, he is at his ceiling.
Favors: Finishing up his fourth year. Probably not improving.
Kanter: Third year. Again, he could get better, or his commitment to defense is so poor, he is at his ceiling.

Gobert is probably a year away from contributing.

Where is all this improvement going to come from? Also, throw Kanter and Burks in the starting lineup and your last place defense might actually get worse.

Soooooooooooooooooooo, don't expect too much improvement. There should be some, but not 15-20 games worth of improvement.

All this is is you thinking they wont.

Burke is 21 and a rookie. Will obviously improve. I think his FG% and apg will go up.

Burks is 22 and until this year has not had healthy minutes. He has shown dramatic improvement. His mpg, FG%, FT%, rpg, apg, spg, FT attempts and ppg are all up. He is elite at getting to the rim. No reason to think he won't continue to improve.

Hayward is 24. His mpg, ppg, apg, rpg are all up. He is a 15, 5 & 5 guy who is under rated on man to man D. He was thrust into a role he is not suited for this year and is %s reflect that.

Favors is 22. His FG% is on the rise again. His mpg, rpg, ppg, apg are all on the rise. He has started showing signs that his O is coming along.

Kanter is 21. This is his first year of averaging over 15 mpg. Let that sink in... His D has shown signs of improvememnt lately. His mpg, ppg, rpg and apg are all up. Another year will only help him focus and improve more.

Gobert is 21. He is a shot blocking, rebounding stud. Extrememly raw offensively. He has only played in 40 games. He may not be a major contributor but I'd expect him to play in more than 40 games next year.

This "core" is all 24 or younger. Average age is only 21.8 years old! There is no reason we will not see improvement. Especially with a new coach and effective defensive coaching. They are young, hungry and have a long way to go before they reach their ceilings.

I expect Burke and Burks to lead the way in improvement next year. Hayward will be a 15, 5 & 5 guy who if used right will be more efficient.

Plus this team will start out healthy and not be missing Burke for the first 15 ish games. That and the increased time playing together and learning each others strengths and weaknesses. Favors and Kanter do not have that much time on the court together remember.

There is no reason to think that they won't improve. None.

 

[NCJazz]

I really like the idea of going after Ryan Kelly. He will be a free agent (restricted I believe however). Has been a big steal in the draft. Lakers still paying Bryant a fortune. I think he can be a more athletic version of Memo.

I doubt the Jazz keep Garrett AND Lucas. Neto wanted to come over this season and they made him play overseas another year. Expect Raul to be on the roster. Lucas must have pics of someone; otherwise he would have never gotten a roster spot. So maybe he stays over Garrett - although I'd rather have Diante or a rookie over JLIII. For some crazy reason though, the Jazz have this philopsophy that they MUST have a veteran 2nd/3rd PG, no matter how bad he may be.

And how would letting Jefferson and Williams go equate to a tank? After a bad November, RJ has put up some decent percentages. But 10/3 in 27 mins/per shouldn't be hard to replace. Besides, he's already stated his intention of playing for a contender. He's an UFA. So he's gone.

And Williams? Nothing special. OK shooter, but not going to dominate a game. For what he does, Jazz can probably find a comparable player with the GS pick. Someone younger, with upside, who is MUCH cheaper. Or if they draft a big, then Marvin will be out of a job. He wasn't that good for Utah last season when playing SF.

 

[green]

Another move towards another tank. Murphy is your backup PF. Our PF/C positions are now set:

Favors/Murphy/Evans
Kanter/Gobert

If this is correct, we just got a lot worse.

 

[Stoked]

Another move towards another tank. Murphy is your backup PF. Our PF/C positions are now set:

Favors/Murphy/Evans
Kanter/Gobert

If this is correct, we just got a lot worse.

Hahaha. Relax man. The Jazz have done this about about a dozen times now over the last 3 years. They are shuffling thru guys of interest to see what's there. Murphy, Jeffers, Gaines, Garrett, Matthews, Thomas...

Not everything done has some deeper long term meaning.

 

[GVC]

So...I went ahead and looked at the number of subsequent non-playoff years for sub-30-win teams since 1999/00 (the first post-'99 lockout season. I included teams with fewer than 24 wins in 11/12). I included any teams that missed the playoffs in 99/00 that had at least one sub-30-win season in their missing playoff streak (including team-seasons with fewer than 18 wins in 98/99) before 1999/00. The earliest sub-30-win season was used as the starting point for all missed playoff streaks (some teams had multiple sub-30-win seasons in a single streak, but these were counted as a single streak starting at the earliest sub-30-win season). Here they are:

Team: Sub-30-win season; Additional seasons before making playoffs

Atl: 99/00; 7
Bos: 96/97; 4
Bos: 06/07; 0 (07/08 NBA Champs)
Bkn: 98/99; 2
Bkn: 09/10; 2
Cha: 04/05; 4
Cha: 11/12; 1
Chi: 98/99; 5
Cle: 98/99; 6
Cle: 10/11; 2+ (will be 3+ once they're officially eliminated from the playoffs)
Dal: 90/91; 9
Den: 96/97; 6
Det: 09/10; 3+ (will be 4+ once they're officially eliminated from the playoffs)
GSW: 94/95; 11
GSW: 08/09; 3
Hou: 01/02; 1
LAC: 97/98; 7
LAC: 07/08; 3
Mem: 95/96; 7
Mem: 06/07; 3
Mia: 02/03; 0
Mia: 07/08; 0
Mil: 06/07; 2
Min: 07/08; 6+
NOP: 04/05; 2
NOP: 11/12; 2+
NYK: 05/06; 4
OKC: 07/08; 1
Orl: 03/04; 2
Orl: 12/13; 1+
Phi: 09/10; 0
Phx: 03/04; 0
Phx: 12/13; ? (may make the playoffs this season)
Por: 04/05; 3
Sac: 08/09; 5+
Tor: 02/03; 3
Tor: 10/11; 2
Uta: 04/05; 1
Was: 98/99; 5
Was: 08/09; 4


If teams with ongoing streaks are ignored, there are 33 observations with a mean and median of 3.33 and 3 additional years of playoffs missed, respectively. Ignoring these teams with ongoing streaks likely biases this downward. Additionally, keep in mind that some of these teams had seasons before their 30-win seasons where they missed the playoffs (like the Jazz) that could make their droughts look even worse (since these seasons are not included here). Only 9 times out of these 33 (~27%) did teams make the playoffs in their first 2 seasons after winning fewer than 30 games. The Jazz's recovery might take some time.

edits: Mostly for clarity.

 

[fishonjazz]

Another move towards another tank. Murphy is your backup PF. Our PF/C positions are now set:

Favors/Murphy/Evans
Kanter/Gobert

If this is correct, we just got a lot worse.

Lol at judging a teams future based off the scrub at the end of the bench.

I bet if you look at the worst player on miami team you would find that he is not very good. So since the 14th man on the heats roster sucks, that means they are tanking obviously

 

[fishonjazz]

Another move towards another tank. Murphy is your backup PF. Our PF/C positions are now set:

Favors/Murphy/Evans
Kanter/Gobert

If this is correct, we just got a lot worse.

Also...... the jazz picked up murphy and dumped biedrins. this seems like an improvement to the team more than a tank move.
If they wanted to tank then they would just re-sign biedrins imo

 

[The Fresh Prince]

For those that think our players will continue to develop, forget that. Look at our players:

Burke: Rookie. Should get better
Burks: Finishing up his third year. Odds are, he is rubbing his head against the ceiling.
Hayward: Finishing up his fourth year. Odds are, he is at his ceiling.
Favors: Finishing up his fourth year. Probably not improving.
Kanter: Third year. Again, he could get better, or his commitment to defense is so poor, he is at his ceiling.

Gobert is probably a year away from contributing.

Where is all this improvement going to come from? Also, throw Kanter and Burks in the starting lineup and your last place defense might actually get worse.

Soooooooooooooooooooo, don't expect too much improvement. There should be some, but not 15-20 games worth of improvement.

How long did it take Jermaine O Neal to become a 20 and 10 playa?
Dennis Rodman came into the NBA at a very ADVANCED age.
Don't cut these guys short of becoming something serious, this was their first year of being thrown into the fire with no real veteran presence (R Jeff LOLZ) to help carry them. Be eazy.

 

[Stifle Tower]

I think the old adage of a player hitting his ceiling after 4-5 years is wrong. That was the axiom back in the days when players were drafted after 4 years of college experience. Then in 4-5 years of playing in the NBA you knew exactly what you were getting. Now guys are coming in with 1-2 years of college experience. Give these guys a couple years in the NBA before starting the clock ticking. It was certainly applicable to Burks; we're just now seeing the player he can become. We're also seeing how raw Kanter and Favors were. Had they played 4 years in college, perhaps they'd be about where they are now, just coming into the league as rookies - and then add the 4-5 years that was the rule of thumb for an NBA big to develop.

 

[GVC]

I think the old adage of a player hitting his ceiling after 4-5 years is wrong. That was the axiom back in the days when players were drafted after 4 years of college experience.

It's been 10 seasons since the 2004 draft, when 8 players were drafted straight out of high school. None of those players' career trajectories changed significantly after their first few years in the league. In general, fans hold out hope for far too long that their team's young talent will make huge strides after they've been in the league for a few seasons. Players improve, sure, but you've generally got a pretty good idea of the overall quality of the player after a few seasons.

 

[Stifle Tower]

It's been 10 seasons since the 2004 draft, when 8 players were drafted straight out of high school. None of those players' career trajectories changed significantly after their first few years in the league. In general, fans hold out hope for far too long that their team's young talent will make huge strides after they've been in the league for a few seasons. Players improve, sure, but you've generally got a pretty good idea of the overall quality of the player after a few seasons.

Perhaps. But in Utah's case, you have "older" players in Hayward, Favors, Burks and Kanter whose stats have improved each year for the past 3-4. No reason to expect these guys have topped out. And certainly, whether Burke proves to be a top-10/15 PG or not, you'd expect significant improvement from his rookie season to his next few. I'm not suggesting we have an undiscovered Lebron, Kobe or Durant.

But what is a little different in Utah's case is that none of the young talent was ever put in a position of being a 1, 2 or even 3 option until this season. Growth HAS been stunted by Utah retaining and relying on players like Big Al, Millsap, Foye, Mo and Marvin and RJ. The young players could have/should have had expanded roles the past few seasons if they were ever expected to be "core" players.

 

[GVC]

But what is a little different in Utah's case is that none of the young talent was ever put in a position of being a 1, 2 or even 3 option until this season.

1. How is that different? It's extremely rare for teams to put middling offensive talent in key roles when there are better options available. None of the young talent on the roster was playing well enough to come close to forcing management's hand (even if Alec and Kanter deserved a few more minutes per game last season). They've done little this season to show that they have the talent to be legitimate offensive hubs moving forward. The talent just isn't there.

2. Gordo was 4th in minutes per game, 3rd in points per game and 2nd in points per 36 on the team last season. This season is his third season playing an important offensive role.