Trade deadline discussion

[KqWIN]

Cool but let’s realize that we are giving away what would need to be basically an unprotected pick years from now when Mike, Rudy, and Don likely are no longer on the team… and we are likely doing so to get an upgrade from a 6-7% chance of winning a title to a 8-9% chance. If anything truly needle moving becomes available we can be outbid so easily it’s comical. We are at the luxury art auction with a $100 in our wallet.

When Gordon left I thought we were cooked and would need to rebuild but we bounced back. In 2 years when we need to rebuild we need every shot at getting a superstar… those only come in the draft and you don’t always get multiple chances at that star. We’d be giving one of those shots away… and likely getting the value others could by giving away 1 or 2 late firsts. A team giving up something that moves the needle won’t value a 2027 pick if it has protections… we won’t get to have our cake and eat it too.

To each their own, but it matters almost zero to me. I have no hesitation to trade a 2027 pick because we aren’t going to be competing for a championship at that point. The whole point of draft picks and future assets is to eventually win, but the opportunity to do so is extremely rare.

I will take my 1% increase in winning a title now over my 1% chance of getting a superstar 5 years from now. Losing a first round pick isn’t some kind of death note.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I feel this way as well.

I will one-up this and say that if Ainge is going to try his magic here I hope he legit swings for the fences, LA-style. I do not think a tweak is going to make us significantly better, but it will cost us picks or other assets we can ill afford at this point. So if you are going to go for it, then really go for it. Move 1/3 of the team and bring in a third star, or something. If you are going to burn the pick, then burn it for real. I don't mean trade any of the core people, but move anyone not in the starting 5 as well as Bogey or O'Neal (they are both expendable), and hell I would not mind if they moved Conley somehow to get us a bigger defensive-minded PG or something.

But to use up picks to get a minor upgrade over, say Bogey (or anyone else really, Joe, Royce, JC, whatever), when we still need to wait on them to get acclimated and then hope they produce better results that Bogey would have with his familiarity with the system, well that is just dumb.

Making changes that big in season when your biggest opportunity is the current season is crazy dumb.

 

[LogGrad98]

Making changes that big in season when your biggest opportunity is the current season is crazy dumb.

Either that or nothing imo. Either go all in or stay out of the fray and look for bargain pieces to improve on the fringes. But going at it half-assed will likely just burn assets for very minor gains. So probably best, unless you can finagle a great deal, to just wait for the off-season for any real moves.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

To each their own, but it matters almost zero to me. I have no hesitation to trade a 2027 pick because we aren’t going to be competing for a championship at that point. The whole point of draft picks and future assets is to eventually win, but the opportunity to do so is extremely rare.

I will take my 1% increase in winning a title now over my 1% chance of getting a superstar 5 years from now. Losing a first round pick isn’t some kind of death note.

Losing an unprotected pick in 2027 could absolutely be a death note… a death note that ****s up the next potential title team. Could be the equivalent of Sacramento drafting Bagley instead of Luka… could be the equivalent of whatever Brooklyn would become if they hadn’t signed KD and Kyrie. We aren’t out one future pick… we would be out three. One of which is a late first so no big deal but the OKC one has potential to be good.

And why did we give that pick… to “upgrade” from JC to Josh Hart or to go from Ingles to Smart… or Bogie to Grant… each one of those deals has as much downside currently as it does upside imo. I mean if OKC is willing to do Dort for the pick then by all means… but we are having some serious pipe dreams on how things could work out…. And really downplaying the risk like we are giving out a late 20s pick… nah that **** will be in the lottery. Would potentially bottleneck a rebuild for multiple years. It’s taking out a high interest loan to build a pool because the kids are only young so long… then you can’t make the payment and have to sell the house in 18 months.

Any deal that comes up that is amazing we will be outbid on. If we find some magic trade that doubles our title odds from 5 to 10% then go ahead and mortgage the future.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Either that or nothing imo. Either go all in or stay out of the fray and look for bargain pieces to improve on the fringes. But going at it half-assed will likely just burn assets for very minor gains. So probably best, unless you can finagle a great deal, to just wait for the off-season for any real moves.

That is my position… basically. Pray Kris Dunn can be your budget Marcus Smart… snag a guy like Kenrich Williams and hope he’s some amazing connector.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Those that are saying trade the pick likely think they going from Bledsoe to Jrue but we don’t have that kind of treasure trove… we are likely looking at KCP, Covington, Hart, Kuzma (thrown out there by Tony Jones… I’d throw up in my mouth), and none of those guys move the needle.

We had our chance to change our ultimate destiny but missed on draft picks… in comical fashion in some cases… we missed on opportunities to sign dudes that could compliment the backcourt… like Alex Caruso (before he signed with the Bulls… I was on to that **** before his second Lakers deal). We overpaid for
players and it cost us real assets. Next time you say “give him the money… what do I care… it’s not my money” realize it comes with a cost. If you don’t have to put a pick in the Favs deal or use 100 seconds to clear salary then you have more assets to move and make a deal that is like the Bledsoe to Jrue deal. Shoot your shot(s) trying to fill backup center and then cleaning up your ****ups and you end up where we are.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Yuta Watanabe a needle mover

 

[KqWIN]

Losing an unprotected pick in 2027 could absolutely be a death note… a death note that ****s up the next potential title team. Could be the equivalent of Sacramento drafting Bagley instead of Luka… could be the equivalent of whatever Brooklyn would become if they hadn’t signed KD and Kyrie. We aren’t out one future pick… we would be out three. One of which is a late first so no big deal but the OKC one has potential to be good.

And why did we give that pick… to “upgrade” from JC to Josh Hart or to go from Ingles to Smart… or Bogie to Grant… each one of those deals has as much downside currently as it does upside imo. I mean if OKC is willing to do Dort for the pick then by all means… but we are having some serious pipe dreams on how things could work out…. And really downplaying the risk like we are giving out a late 20s pick… nah that **** will be in the lottery. Would potentially bottleneck a rebuild for multiple years. It’s taking out a high interest loan to build a pool because the kids are only young so long… then you can’t make the payment and have to sell the house in 18 months.

Any deal that comes up that is amazing we will be outbid on. If we find some magic trade that doubles our title odds from 5 to 10% then go ahead and mortgage the future.

Could also be the difference between winning a championship and not. In a series of highly unlikely hypotheticals, I'll take my shot at winning and live with the consequences. Like I said, the whole point of anything is to win a championship, and that opportunity is extremely rare. This is the best chance we have at winning in the last ~25 years. Given how unlikely it was that we got here in the first place, I'm not taking it for granted and not expecting it to happen again in the next 25 years. We can go on and on about hypotheticals on top of hypotheticals and land on how bad it could be to lose that pick. I'm not downplaying the risk, but what risk are we're talking about winning a championship versus thwarting a rebuild. No doubt the chances of it being the difference are lower than having it hurt us, but in terms of total championship equity? I think that 50 years from now we will say that pick was best used pumping up the 2022 Jazz.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Josh Hart would really interest me to, but the Jazz would have to work with him to become a much better and more willing 3pt shooter. His skyrocketing assist rate really intruiges me and he's a good defender at the guard spot.

 

[infection]

Josh Hart would really interest me to, but the Jazz would have to work with him to become a much better and more willing 3pt shooter. His skyrocketing assist rate really intruiges me and he's a good defender at the guard spot.

And he would be our best rebounder being Rudy and Hassan. And maybe Gay.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

And he would be our best rebounder being Rudy and Hassan. And maybe Gay.

Maybe, rebounding is super context dependent. I doubt Hart is that much better than Royce.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Yuta Watanabe a needle mover

IDK... seems like he only moves your needle.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Could also be the difference between winning a championship and not. In a series of highly unlikely hypotheticals, I'll take my shot at winning and live with the consequences. Like I said, the whole point of anything is to win a championship, and that opportunity is extremely rare. This is the best chance we have at winning in the last ~25 years. Given how unlikely it was that we got here in the first place, I'm not taking it for granted and not expecting it to happen again in the next 25 years. We can go on and on about hypotheticals on top of hypotheticals and land on how bad it could be to lose that pick. I'm not downplaying the risk, but what risk are we're talking about winning a championship versus thwarting a rebuild. No doubt the chances of it being the difference are lower than having it hurt us, but in terms of total championship equity? I think that 50 years from now we will say that pick was best used pumping up the 2022 Jazz.

And I think you can take that shot without throwing in a potential land mine. I think we are moving our chance from - losing in the second round in convincing fashion... to - making a better showing in the second round and being a little more feisty.

If you can flip a top 10 protected pick in 2027 for actual value then go for it, but Phoenix can throw in 1-2 picks before that plus they have an interesting young player like Cam Johnson for something spicy... GS has three young players that all have more value than the Jazz can lay at the table... plus their picks. Both teams are currently better than us... one team might be getting an all-star back soon (he might also suck). There are a lot more hypotheticals stacked up against us imo.

I think we are better off doing something around a guy that is a little less proven that might pop a bit... the challenge is Quin... would he actually play a Yuta if we had him? Quin seems to heavily favor the "known" and the "stable". He's closer to an accountant than a mad scientist. So maybe you do have to go for the name-brand guy... based on the deal I see that I think are actually available... there isn't one I'd do for an unprotected pick 5 years in the future. Its the type of move that turns you into Sacramento for 15 years... I get that the window is now for this group but you don't have to keep betting the next 10 years on it.

 

[Qman]

Think about who has stepped up in the playoffs:

Gobert
Mitchell
Conley
O'Neale

Who hasn't in recent years
Bogey
Ingles
Favors

The point is if we have a chance to turn Ingles and/or Bogey into a forward sized player with more two chops we have to do it. At this point I would be tempted to even go smaller and trade for a player like Norman Powell.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Think about who has stepped up in the playoffs:

Gobert
Mitchell
Conley
O'Neale

Who hasn't in recent years
Bogey
Ingles
Favors

The point is if we have a chance to turn Ingles and/or Bogey into a forward sized player with more two chops we have to do it. At this point I would be tempted to even go smaller and trade for a player like Norman Powell.

Bogey was good in the playoffs last year. Mike got hurt but was good in the memphis series. Rudy was gameplanned out by the Clips.

The anti-Bogey narrative is some serious ******** tbh. I think he's the 4th guy I keep if I'm trying to win a title.

 

[infection]

Bogey was good in the playoffs last year. Mike got hurt but was good in the memphis series. Quin was gameplanned out by the Clips.

FIFY.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

FIFY.

Ehhhh... its a Quin and a Rudy issue... and obviously a supporting cast issue. Rudy has some limitations... he's a top ten dude in the regular season but is the rare top ten guy that can become marginalized in some matchups. Its partly scheme for sure... but he gets a fair share of that blame pie. If our perimeter defenders were dynamic two way guys it wouldn't be as much of an issue, but it would still be a bit of an issue.

 

[infection]

Ehhhh... its a Quin and a Rudy issue... and obviously a supporting cast issue. Rudy has some limitations... he's a top ten dude in the regular season but is the rare top ten guy that can become marginalized in some matchups. Its partly scheme for sure... but he gets a fair share of that blame pie. If our perimeter defenders were dynamic two way guys it wouldn't be as much of an issue, but it would still be a bit of an issue.

If you let him guard someone, you shouldn't have as big of an issue. For instance, even if there were blowbys, I'd rather give up 7/10 at the rim from Jackson than 7/10 from deep by Mann.

 

[campaignist]

The Jazz need the equivalent of trading Bledsoe for Holiday. The Bucks definitely overpaid, but that’s what it took because they didn’t have the assets other teams had to offer.

To me, that is Bogey and Ingles (or Clarkson) and picks plus pick swaps for Siakam. Grant is less exciting to me but presumably wouldn’t take as much to get either.

Thank you, this is exactly what I was trying to figure out how to say. I'd only add picks or overpay if it's a Bledsoe/Holiday level deal. I don't think Grant rises to that level either.

Keep in mind, yes we have a good shot at the title. But if it doesn't work out, and we can't add picks to trades or miss out on making a bunch of our own, that hurts Mitchell's prime and the rest of Gobert's. Maybe doing that would be worth it, but it is something to consider.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

If you let him guard someone, you shouldn't have as big of an issue. For instance, even if there were blowbys, I'd rather give up 7/10 at the rim from Jackson than 7/10 from deep by Mann.

I think we gave up both... and I'm guessing Jackson goes 10/10 from the paint without Rudy there. The hope is that we could have a little more defensive integrity out there if Donovan and Mike both aren't on one leg.

And part of me wants to say no way those guys will shoot that type of percentage again... but the Denver series is still in my brain. Now... that was played in an empty gym in the bubble... so were both instances a fluke? And now I am in the same headspace Quin is where we do nothing and stay the course because well numbers and science and algorithms and ****.