billyshelby
Well-Known Member
As to Hayward's value, I see it two ways:
His true value, in the NEW CBA, is around 10. I don't remember if Batum was signed in the new or old CBA, but his salary makes sense under the Old CBA and it's a cautionary tale in the New. Hayward is better than Batum, worse than Leonard, and both Batum and Leonard are worth somewhere between 8 and 11 in the New. The difference is that Batum looks like an overpaid, but competent 3rd option, Leonard looks like a guy who is, at worst, a competent 3rd option, and may be heading toward solid #2 guy (or better -- I really love his game.) Also, Batum and especially Leonard are elite defensively where Hayward is not.
Hayward's market value is much higher. It only takes one dumb GM to see 16/5/5 and offer 12, or 12 plus. That's the same mistake teams made overpaying Deng for the last decade, which was less egregious under the old CBA. But under the new regime, even allowing for increases to the Salary Cap in coming years, 12 for Hayward is way too much. On a team with a true star, he handles the ball 50% less (a huge number) and will struggle to put up even close to the same stats unless he continues to get Deng minutes (a huge assumption.)
The other problem is Hayward is only an injury away from becoming Dunleavy. Any hit to his athleticism and he becomes ordinary overnight. By contrast, a player like Wade, currently operating at about 65% of his 23 year old self, is still a pretty terrific player. Hayward at 65% is not a guy you want. At all. And, in just my opinion, you don't give big contracts to guys who have such a huge potential for worthlessness if they get hurt.
His true value, in the NEW CBA, is around 10. I don't remember if Batum was signed in the new or old CBA, but his salary makes sense under the Old CBA and it's a cautionary tale in the New. Hayward is better than Batum, worse than Leonard, and both Batum and Leonard are worth somewhere between 8 and 11 in the New. The difference is that Batum looks like an overpaid, but competent 3rd option, Leonard looks like a guy who is, at worst, a competent 3rd option, and may be heading toward solid #2 guy (or better -- I really love his game.) Also, Batum and especially Leonard are elite defensively where Hayward is not.
Hayward's market value is much higher. It only takes one dumb GM to see 16/5/5 and offer 12, or 12 plus. That's the same mistake teams made overpaying Deng for the last decade, which was less egregious under the old CBA. But under the new regime, even allowing for increases to the Salary Cap in coming years, 12 for Hayward is way too much. On a team with a true star, he handles the ball 50% less (a huge number) and will struggle to put up even close to the same stats unless he continues to get Deng minutes (a huge assumption.)
The other problem is Hayward is only an injury away from becoming Dunleavy. Any hit to his athleticism and he becomes ordinary overnight. By contrast, a player like Wade, currently operating at about 65% of his 23 year old self, is still a pretty terrific player. Hayward at 65% is not a guy you want. At all. And, in just my opinion, you don't give big contracts to guys who have such a huge potential for worthlessness if they get hurt.
