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Which teams are gonna melt down in the face of upcoming tax hikes? What can we take from them?

NAOS

NAOS

Well-Known Member
Here's a volley from another thread. I think it deserves to be hived off as the beginning of a new thread. As far as I'm concerned this thread should be stickied to the top since nothing else really matters.


NAOS said:
I think the jazz will come into next year well below payroll minimums. They have until next year's deadline to meet those minimums, so they'll just take picks and players in February. They could have has many as 8 players on their rookie deals + Evans + Carroll. Tons of space and ability to bail out teams about to get hammered by the new tax. We could nab some good players + picks for the loaded 2014 class.

I'm still waiting for confirmation about whether a Millsap signing bonus would count toward those minimum numbers. If so, a lot of that space can be invested with a big splash for Paul with maximum declines in pay going forward.

In other words, I don't think we are gearing up for a spending bonanza. We're playing for space through next year's deadline.
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NAOS said:
It's the ONLY thing that makes sense. I'll be bitching like crazy if something else unfolds.

The only GOOD thing to come out of our recent inaction is the fact that we now know the strategy of our FO:

The longest con evar + the hope/risk that their IS a bounty of players and picks AND they pan out.

If we over-stock on vets and make no moves next year, I'll burn my fan card.
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GVC said:
There are no true payroll minimums. If teams are below the minimum payroll at the end of the year, they pay their players the balance.

And I'm pretty sure signing bonuses count toward the minimum payroll, which makes signing bonuses valuable for teams that won't reach the minimum. Teams have to pay the minimum regardless, and the salary savings relative to cap hit probably makes players with signing bonuses more valuable for trade purposes.
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MoTown16 said:
You are 100% correct. KOC has talked about how valuable cap space will be. The Jazz will have even more $ to spend after Marvin's contract comes off the books...right in time to pay Favors and Hayward. Jazz are in great shape financially; let's just hope the Armageddon that everyone is predicting for several teams comes to fruition. Jazz will never pick up a superstar, but perhaps some all-star or near all-star talent will be available for teams that can absorb the salary.
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To the bolded I'd add, again, the possibility of picking up some valuable picks... which may yield that superstar.

THE QUESTION IS WHO IS GONNA MELT DOWN AND LET US RAID THE PANTRY? EH?
 
UGLI baby said:
Interesting.

I'm terrified the Jazz will overpay someone just cuz they have cap space
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yeah. That's why I threatened to burn my fan card. Up to this point INACTION has had a strategic value... but, from here, there needs to be some heavy-lifting wheeling-and-dealing. If we get another repeat of vets playing ahead of youth, and those vets chew up our flexibility, then I'm OUTTIE
 
franklin said:
Bout time you started the OsoLongConner Sticky. Three months to work up the courage tho?
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I've been bizzy, braugh. Plus, me and Corbin continue to labor in your shadow... I finally got the nerve to step out into the light.
 
Gay's gone. Can I choose Jokehim Noah? Garnett? Andrea "I'd like to see what he cud do" Bargnani? Stat? Gasol?

Bigs is in excess.
 
Lakers have to move either Howard or Gasol. Otherwise they are going to get killed by the cap.

Heat can't have 3 max players and not pay out the nose. They will have to ditch one of the big 3.

Nets also have major problems. They have the most guaranteed money in 2014 and 2015. Joe Johnson kills that team IMHO.
 
NAOS said:
yeah. That's why I threatened to burn my fan card. Up to this point INACTION has had a strategic value... but, from here, there needs to be some heavy-lifting wheeling-and-dealing. If we get another repeat of vets playing ahead of youth, and those vets chew up our flexibility, then I'm OUTTIE
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Can you imagine the hell inside the board room where they finally cemented this strategy? You know they pulled up your boy as a reference for why Jeffyball would sell.
 
Here's the kind of deal I'm looking for:

*Team X needs to shed salary at the deadline to avoid a whopping bill from the league.
*We offer to take an expiring deal from them + a guaranteed first and/or a nice player on his rookie contract.
*If we take a longer-term contract, then it better come with a better player and/or a pick.
*In other words, I want to use that space, but still end up with flexibility and space by next year's end. Yes? eh?
 
Also Boozer is destroying the Bulls with his contract and production levels. The bulls are going to have to move him before the 13-14 deadline.

I honestly like that teams can't load up and just pay multi year taxes. This will make the entire league more competitive hopefully.
 
Been meaning to start a thread that touched on this but am lazy/didn't know how to write it. This is something to actually discuss. Good work.
 
I think Gasol is going to have to get moved. His salary plus the Lakers cap situation is prohibitively, ridiculously expensive even for the Lakers. And I wouldn't be completely opposed to that IF the Jazz are JefferSap-less and still needing another big. But I don't know, there are a TON of moving parts in such a scenario.
 
Good thread.
I think Lakers with Gasol is very likely. Locke said something like "if the Lakers just move Gasol, then they save around $70 mil next year". Not sure about the math but even half that is a crazy number.

Look for Boozer in Chicago to move. BKN is in a ****ty cap situation where they're entering luxury tax and they won't get past the 1st round.
Clippers have to get rid of Bledsoe. He will demand a larger contract than Clips will pay him.

I can remember off the top of my head, but the Warriors are close to tax too.
 
A dark horse team that can't afford the luxury tax is the Pacers. Keep an eye out on them.

Lakers will move someone.
 
What I find Crazy is the Nets are the team with the highest guaranteed salary in 14 and 15. They are absolutely screwed with Deron, Joe, and Lopez. Considering they are good but not great the Nets may blow that entire build up. I wouldn't be surprised if Deron is traded for cap/being a bitch reasons.
 
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