Which Will Be Easier: Competing for a Title

[HermanG]

Yeah, that's a good point that I recognized. Although second year guys aren't always much better than rookies, so it's really how much better are Key and Hendricks going to be in their 3rd year than this year. You could kind of make that point this year too though, with how much better is Kessler going to be this year than last year. We'll potentially have 3 rookies again in 2025, so you can also make the argument that we just play the rookies a bunch in 2026 to make the team worse. Our youth should be collectively better next year than this year, but I'm not sure by how much and if it offsets the point of us being able to be bad in 2026.

I did say, "able to" though and the FO can always easily make the team worse.

Yeah theres no guarantees but guys who pop and end up being good usually take a first notable leap somewhere around years 2-4.

We all hope that happens, and if Key and at least 1 of TH or Kessler level up by then we will be far from a tanking team (unless Sexton and Lauri are both traded).

 

[KqWIN]

The main thing that should help us in the tank race is the fact that we play in the West vs East. We should have 6-10 less winnable games vs all the Eastern conference teams playing each other 3-4 times a year.

It also affects when you may decide to pull the plug. The longer you’re hanging in on the play in/playoff race the longer you are likely to compete hard. For these tanking East teams, they could very well be in the play in race. Right now, Vegas has the 10th east seed at 30.5 wins. For the west the 10th seed is 43.5 wins.

If you go 15-25 in the first 40 in the West you are likely already out of any kind of competitive goal. It would take a huge comeback (which does happen) but that is so hard to overcome and it’s much easier to pull the plug. In the East, you might be in a play in position.

 

[KqWIN]

Jazz land somewhere between 6th and 8th with normal health as is. A key injury and you are bottom 5… same with a key trade. Not ideal and I’d try to game the system more but we are likely bottom 2 in the west unless SA stutters out of the gate. The presence of the play in will entice the East team like Atlanta, Chicago, Toronto, Charlotte to not wrap it up early.

6-8 provides okay odds. Personally I’d move Kessler or Sexton and you’d be set but I don’t know what the offers are out there.

I don't know if "normal health" includes tanking at the end of the year again, but I still struggle to find enough teams to make 6-8 normal. I think we can finish there, but it would take really good outcomes for some players on roster. I see two teams that are clearly worse, and then we're in a group of 4-5 teams where I can't say we're clearly better or worse than them given all possible outcomes.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Of course we see a path. But if you do this thing with every team where you look at everything so optimistically, they all have a path.

You definitely cant do it for the Wizards, Blazers, or Nets. I will be floored if those arent the bottom 3 teams by a healthy margin for the entire season.

Everyone else, yeah, you can probably have an optimistic path for, but Utah has proven they are capable of playing at a high level under Hardy for stretches before being dismantled from within.

 

[KqWIN]

You definitely cant do it for the Wizards, Blazers, or Nets. I will be floored if those arent the bottom 3 teams by a healthy margin for the entire season.

Everyone else, yeah, you can probably have an optimistic path for, but Utah has proven they are capable of playing at a high level under Hardy for stretches before being dismantled from within.

Wizards and Nets are in their own tier. Blazers, sure you can. They have more vets than us and have plenty of young players that can make a jump. Everyone is expecting them to make a trade of course, but if we're talking about as constructed I can't see how they are clearly worse than us. They've got a lot of guys and also a lot of guys who could make leaps.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Wizards and Nets are in their own tier. Blazers, sure you can. They have more vets than us and have plenty of young players that can make a jump. Everyone is expecting them to make a trade of course, but if we're talking about as constructed I can't see how they are clearly worse than us. They've got a lot of guys and also a lot of guys who could make leaps.

The Blazers are potentially the worst team in the NBA. Bottom 5 coach. Terrible vets. Maybe Simons is good, IDK. Their rookie contract players are *** (Clingan might be the truth, but he's blocked by Ayton, who sucks and Scoot likely has another year of being trash). None of their players even fit together, so if they are accidentally decent and overperform, it wont synergize. I know this board loves Deni, but Deni isnt making a difference with this roster.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I would put the Nets ahead of the Blazers quite easily. I actually just looked at the Nets roster and can make a much better case for their overachievement than the Blazers.

 

[whatthe]

the Jazz can only get "the guy" through the draft or a great trade. Trading for Ingram is a great value trade and I wouldn't pass it up. I would however trade all our high level experienced competitors except Lauri once we obtain Ingram. Kessler, Sexton, etc. I would trade them away.

 

[HermanG]

Wizards and Nets are in their own tier. Blazers, sure you can. They have more vets than us and have plenty of young players that can make a jump. Everyone is expecting them to make a trade of course, but if we're talking about as constructed I can't see how they are clearly worse than us. They've got a lot of guys and also a lot of guys who could make leaps.

Blazers show likely runs through Scoot, so I wouldnt project them playing up to the teams potential unless you believe he will level up.

 

[KqWIN]

The Blazers are potentially the worst team in the NBA. Bottom 5 coach. Terrible vets. Maybe Simons is good, IDK. Their rookie contract players are *** (Clingan might be the truth, but he's blocked by Ayton, who sucks and Scoot likely has another year of being trash). None of their players even fit together, so if they are accidentally decent and overperform, it wont synergize. I know this board loves Deni, but Deni isnt making a difference with this roster.

They've got Grant, Simons, Clingan, Avdija, Ayton, Thybulle, Coumara, Sharpe, Timelord, Reath.....their depth is so much more than ours. Some of those vets aren't great, I still think they produce more wins than a rookie and/or completely unproven young player.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I don't know if "normal health" includes tanking at the end of the year again, but I still struggle to find enough teams to make 6-8 normal. I think we can finish there, but it would take really good outcomes for some players on roster. I see two teams that are clearly worse, and then we're in a group of 4-5 teams where I can't say we're clearly better or worse than them given all possible outcomes.

Yeah I think its 3 teams with Portland but lets say they are in the group too. I could see the bottom 2-3 spots in that tier being the teams that had the most injuries or made a trade sooner. There are also teams one tier above those that are an injury away from joining the scrum. I just use 6-8 range (won't argue with 4-9 though) as it feels like a safe floor outcome/range since there are infinity things we don't know that could go one way or another. If there were acceptable trades out there for any of JCx2, Sexton, Kessler I would likely take one to ensure we aren't "too good to tank".

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

They've got Grant, Simons, Clingan, Avdija, Ayton, Thybulle, Coumara, Sharpe, Timelord, Reath.....their depth is so much more than ours. Some of those vets aren't great, I still think they produce more wins than a rookie and/or completely unproven young player.

The case for Portland being worse changes based on Scoot. He's the turd in the punchbowl there that can drag them all down. If he's more passable or gets hurt then I think they end up being neck and neck with us.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

They've got Grant, Simons, Clingan, Avdija, Ayton, Thybulle, Coumara, Sharpe, Timelord, Reath.....their depth is so much more than ours. Some of those vets aren't great, I still think they produce more wins than a rookie and/or completely unproven young player.

Yeah, I just dont agree with any of that (other than you listing what players they have).

Timelord might be great, but he wont even play on this roster given Ayton/Clingan will take all the 5 minutes.

Reath? Sharpe? Coumara? These are not NBA rotation players.

Ayton and Grant arent good. They are net neutral at best and are just out there collecting checks.

There isnt a single player on their roster capable of what Lauri is. There is no optimism for this team to be anything outside of a bottom 3 team.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

The case for Portland being worse changes based on Scoot. He's the turd in the punchbowl there that can drag them all down. If he's more passable or gets hurt then I think they end up being neck and neck with us.

Their team is a toilet bowl full of turds. Deni and Simons might be some punch in a turd bowl, but it's still a turd bowl.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Last year I could have talked myself into Ayton being unlocked away from the Suns and that being a game changer, but I just dont believe.

 

[KqWIN]

The case for Portland being worse changes based on Scoot. He's the turd in the punchbowl there that can drag them all down. If he's more passable or gets hurt then I think they end up being neck and neck with us.

I'd agree, and I'm the number one guy saying Scoot was *** and he tricked you all into thinking he was amazing. But I don't think it's unfeasible that they are on par on us or even win more if one of their younger guys pops. They have a longer list of real players. I've said this a million times now, but I do believe it's vets+depth that wins you games. It is much easier for things to go tanky when more of your talent is concentrated in a fewer amount of players. If they execute on the trades people are expecting, I'll change my opinion.

Honestly, this talk about the Jazz actually playing Kessler is making me more pessimistic about our tank chances. 30 MPG and 70 games out of Kessler could make him the most effective 82 game player for the Jazz. Sexton/Lauri do not have very clean health records.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

Scoot was much better the second half of the year than the first. I still believe in him, so it won't surprise me if he's good this year. Still, I think it's going to take Clingan being so good that he forces their hand and he plays over Ayton for the Blazers to have a better record than us.

 

[fishonjazz]

Wizards and Nets are in their own tier. Blazers, sure you can. They have more vets than us and have plenty of young players that can make a jump. Everyone is expecting them to make a trade of course, but if we're talking about as constructed I can't see how they are clearly worse than us. They've got a lot of guys and also a lot of guys who could make leaps.

Ya I think we could be worse than the blazers

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[KqWIN]

Scoot was much better the second half of the year than the first. I still believe in him, so it won't surprise me if he's good this year. Still, I think it's going to take Clingan being so good that he forces their hand and he plays over Ayton for the Blazers to have a better record than us.

Ayton was much better in the second half too. I hate him and will never count on him, but he's probably at least as good as a John Collins. They could do some weird stuff and make his dream of becoming a 4 a reality though.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Even if Lauri didn't play a single game I would take ethe Jazz over the Blazers