Devin Harris on Al Jefferson: Jazz fans will be surprised if they see him

[sepanol]

Kanter has never played in the NBA, yet you speak of him like he is the next comming of Karl Malone. Al played very well down the stretch and while they did not win many games, it's foolish to believe that was is fault. Al needs another year in the system without dwill ripping out his confidence. If he can't pull it together then we can speak aboit moving him.

Ripping out his confidence? if there is someone whose confidence is ripped, its hayward , certainly not Big Al. If you read my previous threads i already emphasized i dont say he is the next Karl Malone, it is foolish to make such comments without reading the other posts.

I am telling my opinion after seeing this guy whole year of playing, he is not one of the top 20 big men in the league. So that's pretty enough reasoning that he can't be our franchise guy at all. Will Kanter be? We will see, hard to say without seeing him play in nba at all, but we have seen Big Al enough to make judgments about. And i don't think we can achieve big success with him as the first option.

 

[GVC]

Seeing as you basically said the polar opposite of this a few pages ago

Well, that's a lie. I'm curious where I said that. Go ahead and quote the relevant post(s).

 

[sepanol]

My overstatement, which I admitted to, was that the games in March were meaningless because, with the passage of time, I had forgotten, at least in part, how late the Jazz were still in the race for a playoff spot (especially since, given the tail spin, most people were of the opinion, myself included, that the Jazz weren't going to make the playoffs). Had I remembered correctly, I wouldn't have made that statement, which is why I retracted it. I don't know why I should have to defend something I already admitted was an overstatement.

When you entered the thread, as I've already quoted, you were laughing about how it would be idiotic for anyone to claim that a win in November is worth the same as a win in March. That is what you quoted from me, and I assumed that's what you were addressing (you know, since that's what you quoted). You were never addressing a point I made about the relative importance of games because since admitting my mistake, I never made any claims about that. It's all right here in this thread, and you should be able to go back and read it. You'll see I've been consistent since admitting my overstatement.

As for skewed statistics, what exactly is the problem? Zerol and billy made completely unsubstantiated claims about Al's performance against a vague set of "elite" teams. I, being completely honest about my methodology, presented his stats against the top 4 Western Conference teams. I even stated that I'd have to know what they meant by "elite" to be able to check these claims, but they didn't come forward with definitions or data. The data I presented was accurate.

The issue I had with your data is that you chose to round your numbers in such a way (contrary to standard practice) to make your argument more credible. You did so without stating that that's what you were doing.

What I did was honest and accurate. If someone didn't like how I defined "elite" teams OR how much time I was willing to put into gathering data, they could re-define the term less ambiguously and collect the data themselves. What you did was dishonest and inaccurate. Period.

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to GVC again.

 

[Deleted member 848]

Well, that's a lie. I'm curious where I said that. Go ahead and quote the relevant post(s).

I believe that is what was inferred when you said that Al Jefferson showed no statistical advantage over the rest of the league when he played "elite" teams on February and March. I am now saying that there is a statisical advantage, and now you have agreed upon it. To me, those two points are opposites. Not gonna go back and quote just because you told me to do so. Dont be scared, embrace the knowledge Jefferdad played well against the elite teams in comparison to other centers, you should be stoked.

 

[sepanol]

PS I calculated the FG% of all of Als games against the most elite of teams he played against in the months of February and March from both conferences (these were the Bulls, OKC, the Mavs, and the Celtics)

I got 60.7%. Notice how this detriments your point completely.

And unfortunately, we lost most of them by margin (except Celtics game i think). So what a pity, his amazing performance couldn't help us win.

It is different to score 30 in a head to head game and a game you are down by 30 in the third quarter.

Find stats of the games, where Big Al take over the game in the last quarter and helped us win

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

And unfortunately, we lost most of them by margin (except Celtics game i think). So what a pity, his amazing performance couldn't help us win.

It is different to score 30 in a head to head game and a game you are down by 30 in the third quarter.

Find stats of the games, where Big Al take over the game in the last quarter and helped us win

To be fair to Big Al, our team was never good enough as a collective whole to be close to be winning many games in the 4th quarter.

 

[sepanol]

It's bad enough that people want to focus on a 28 game stretch. Looking at only 7 games (all losses) is completely ridiculous. But ya, Al put up some good numbers against good teams in February and March.

Maybe we should focus on 4 game road stretch of millsap in early season and claim he is one of the elite big men in the league. It is logical with the same mentality

 

[Deleted member 848]

And unfortunately, we lost most of them by margin (except Celtics game i think). So what a pity, his amazing performance couldn't help us win.

It is different to score 30 in a head to head game and a game you are down by 30 in the third quarter.

Find stats of the games, where Big Al take over the game in the last quarter and helped us win

So the loss of the game should be blamed on a sole player? If we lose a game, doesnt matter how well Jefferson played, we should simply scrap the performance due to poor efforts from his other teammates? Okay.

PS Al Jefferson has statistics that indicate he scores more in "clutch-time" at a high percentage than almost any other center in the NBA.

 

[GVC]

I believe that is what was inferred when you said that Al Jefferson showed no statistical advantage over the rest of the league when he played "elite" teams on February and March.

Only I never said that.

 

[sepanol]

To be fair to Big Al, our team was never good enough as a collective whole to be close to be winning many games in the 4th quarter.

I think in early season, we were pretty collective, at least we played as a team, but Big Al wasn't the best performer after Deron, not even second maybe. It is normal that he appeared the best scorer in the team after the trade, because Millsap was never a first scoring option in any time in his career, and Harris sucks, Hayward, favors are rookies, so someone has to score. (Especially if someone is getting paid 14 million per year)

I am not telling we should rush him to trade, but the statements how good he is and one of elite big men in the league are so funny. He was only the first option scorer in marginally losing teams in his career, Minnesota and Utah after the trade. With this data , it is just funny to claim how amazing he is or so.

 

[sepanol]

So the loss of the game should be blamed on a sole player? If we lose a game, doesnt matter how well Jefferson played, we should simply scrap the performance due to poor efforts from his other teammates? Okay.

PS Al Jefferson has statistics that indicate he scores more in "clutch-time" at a high percentage than almost any other center in the NBA.

You manipulate my words as you always do because you don't have a strong argument to prove if Big Al is that good as you claim. It is different to say team lost by 30 because of him, and his performance doesn't make so much sense if we lost by 30.

Do you really think Big Al is one of the elite big man in this league? and what do you rely on if you think like this?
My only questions, i don't even discuss, kanter, millsap, salary or whatever

 

[Deleted member 848]

Only I never said that.

It is obvious to me that it is what you meant. If it is not what you meant, please tell me what you did mean. Seeing as you said you'd never apologize even in the instance where you are wrong, this sort of a response is to be expected I guess.

 

[sepanol]

It is obvious to me that it is what you meant. If it is not what you meant, please tell me what you did mean. Seeing as you said you'd never apologize even in the instance where you are wrong, this sort of a response is to be expected I guess.

The thing here is, dalamon, you seem like you argue just to win or just to be right, instead you should throw good ideas how this team can be better, or strong arguments to back up your claims, but you always spoil the subject with who is right who is wrong, who apologized or what

 

[GVC]

It is obvious to me that it is what you meant. If it is not what you meant, please tell me what you did mean. Seeing as you said you'd never apologize even in the instance where you are wrong, this sort of a response is to be expected I guess.

I said I wouldn't apologize to you, but I didn't say I wouldn't admit being wrong (if I were wrong).

In Billy's post a few pages back when he stated that Al was best against elite teams, I took it as meaning he was best against those teams over the whole season. That's why I stated that his splits didn't seem any better against Western Conference playoff teams for the year, and why I crunched the numbers against the top 4. I concluded that his TS% against those 4 teams was roughly in line with the league average, and also roughly in line with his post-All-Star TS% (and better than his TS% for the season).

My posts are very clear. Read them and try to not let your emotions get in the way of what's actually there in front of you.

 

[Deleted member 848]

You manipulate my words as you always do because you don't have a strong argument to prove if Big Al is that good as you claim. It is different to say team lost by 30 because of him, and his performance doesn't make so much sense if we lost by 30.

Do you really think Big Al is one of the elite big man in this league? and what do you rely on if you think like this?
My only questions, i don't even discuss, kanter, millsap, salary or whatever

I am saying that a our team being blown out should be blamed on our putrid teammates, and if someone like Al Jefferson does well in loss (offensively) then I think it is quite stupid to negate this data. It simply makes no sense

I think I have mentioned this several times to you, but I suppose I can do it again. Al Jefferson is currently not a Top Ten PF/C in the NBA, if you take a look of how he played on average throughout last season. If I knew right now that he would never have anymore to offer than 17/9, and how he played on average last season, then I would definirely be shopping him for a good trade. However, to me his growing trend of improvement as the season progressed really changed the way I see him, and I am personally anticipating continued improvement into whenever our season starts, because I feel like he has the tools and the dedication to continue his momentum of improcement that began after the allstar break last season. I also feel like we certainly have the time to see whether Al Jefferson ever does end up improving, because our two lottery pick PF/Cs are about 2 years away from really being very effective NBA starters, which coincides with approaching the end of Al Jeffersons contract. I am of the opinion that Al definitely has what it takes to improve and become a top ten PF/C in the NBA, but he certainly isnt there right now. But theres honestly no point to be shopping him right now, and I just stand up for the guy because he consistently gets serious amounts of flak on this forum. In this discussion, I jumped in because I thought his performances in very crucial games were being unfairly taken away from him. Thats it.

 

[sepanol]

I am saying that a our team being blown out should be blamed on our putrid teammates, and if someone like Al Jefferson does well in loss (offensively) then I think it is quite stupid to negate this data. It simply makes no sense

I think I have mentioned this several times to you, but I suppose I can do it again. Al Jefferson is currently not a Top Ten PF/C in the NBA, if you take a look of how he played on average throughout last season. If I knew right now that he would never have anymore to offer than 17/9, and how he played on average last season, then I would definirely be shopping him for a good trade. However, to me his growing trend of improvement as the season progressed really changed the way I see him, and I am personally anticipating continued improvement into whenever our season starts, because I feel like he has the tools and the dedication to continue his momentum of improcement that began after the allstar break last season. I also feel like we certainly have the time to see whether Al Jefferson ever does end up improving, because our two lottery pick PF/Cs are about 2 years away from really being very effective NBA starters, which coincides with approaching the end of Al Jeffersons contract. I am of the opinion that Al definitely has what it takes to improve and become a top ten PF/C in the NBA, but he certainly isnt there right now. But theres honestly no point to be shopping him right now, and I just stand up for the guy because he consistently gets serious amounts of flak on this forum. In this discussion, I jumped in because I thought his performances in very crucial games were being unfairly taken away from him. Thats it.

That's the most logical post i read of you and i agree. I don't know why it seemed like I was too against Big Al and you were completely with him then.

 

[Deleted member 848]

I said I wouldn't apologize to you, but I didn't say I wouldn't admit being wrong (if I were wrong).

In Billy's post a few pages back when he stated that Al was best against elite teams, I took it as meaning he was best against those teams over the whole season. That's why I stated that his splits didn't seem any better against Western Conference playoff teams for the year, and why I crunched the numbers against the top 4. I concluded that his TS% against those 4 teams was roughly in line with the league average, and also roughly in line with his post-All-Star TS% (and better than his TS% for the season).

My posts are very clear. Read them and try to not let your emotions get in the way of what's actually there in front of you.

This was definitely not clear to me. Heres why:

And you're not being honest about his performance against playoff teams (even "Western" teams which is a dodge). He killed in that stretch against the league elite.

This was the post immediately preceding your compilation of data. Why you would use season averages in your argument, as opposed to addressing his point of killing elite teams in those two months seems very unusual to me. This makes your data compilation even more laughable, quite frankly.

 

[Deleted member 848]

That's the most logical post i read of you and i agree. I don't know why it seemed like I was too against Big Al and you were completely with him then.

Haha, our 2 month arguement can finally come to a close then. Kanter honestly has great potential, and I am hopeful for him, I just think that hes gonna start getting much better once we go through our experiment with Big Al, and I sincerely doubt we wont give him sufficient playing time to help develop him until then. He is a third overall pick, after all. There'll be enough minutes for our frontcourt.

 

[GVC]

This was the post immediately preceding your compilation of data. Why you would use season averages in your argument, as opposed to addressing his point of killing elite teams in those two months seems very unusual to me. This makes your data compilation even more laughable, quite frankly.

It was a mistake on my part then. The earlier post he made was a little more ambiguous, and I had probably already started looking at the stats before he made the post you just quoted. It doesn't make the data bad, as I stated that those were his stats against the top 4 Western Conference teams for the season. My selection of data is not nearly as laughable as the inference you made counter to what I actually stated.

Looking at 7 games, while ignoring the other 75, and trying to draw conclusions is still ridiculous, either way. Take a look at Millsap's first 7 (consecutive) games last season.

 

[Deleted member 848]

It was a mistake on my part then. The earlier post he made was a little more ambiguous, and I had probably already started looking at the stats before he made the post you just quoted. It doesn't make the data bad, as I stated that those were his stats against the top 4 Western Conference teams for the season. My selection of data is not nearly as laughable as the inference you made counter to what I actually stated.

Looking at 7 games, while ignoring the other 75, and trying to draw conclusions is still ridiculous, either way. Take a look at Millsap's first 7 (consecutive) games last season.

Glad you're owning up to it. It doesnt make your data completely false, I was just expecting much more precise data, especially since the argument was revolving around his explosion in Febreuary and March. Thats why I said it was laughable. Never would I ever say Al consistenly played well against elite teams over the course of the entire season. And if you read my post when I posted the stats for the games, I said that the sample size was very small and you couldnt make a great argument with it, however it DOES support the fact that he played well against elite teams during February and March contrary to what your data made it seem like. PS if were looking at games against top 4 elite teams, it would be 7 out of 24 games, not 75. And unfortunately, I cannot think of a better way to show how well played against elite teams during February and March, and I dont think you can either.