The *OFFICIAL* Russia Is About To Invade Ukraine Thread

[leftyjace]

When you have a superpower that consistently threatens a response to an action, and you continue with that action, you have some blame.

I didn't say we should or should not have done it, but our actions and meddling have caused the response.

So… the blame goes not on the aggressor, but on the person who the aggressor says was at fault for provoking their proactive bad behavior.

And so that means you probably believe that girls who dress up provocatively deserve to be sexually assaulted...Right?

 

[fishonjazz]

But what if that change was decided by Russia pushing lots of influence/interference to make it happen? We have seen how the U.S. responds to weapons on our doorstep. Unreasonable or not, we did it in Cuba. I don't agree with Putin, but I am not surprised, he just followed through on what he said he would do. Hell, we went to Vietnam to try and stop Communism. According to a 2020 study, Americans "are more likely to condemn foreign involvement, lose faith in democracy, and seek retaliation when a foreign power sides with the opposition, than when a foreign power aids their own party. At the same time, Americans reject military responses to electoral attacks on the United States, even when their own political party is targeted." Tomz, Michael; Weeks, Jessica L. P. (2020). "Public Opinion and Foreign Electoral Intervention". American Political Science Review. 114 (3): 856–873. doi:10.1017/S0003055420000064. ISSN 0003-0554.

Putin inferred he was fine with Ukraine becoming a western democracy, as long as they were not part of the EU and NATO, that was his line. He doesn't want NATO on his doorstep. I really don't think the U.S. would react any differently if the roles were reversed.

We went full war mode during the Cuban missile crisis until they disarmed. We are safer because our borders are not a threat.

This article does not touch on everything I mentioned above, and brings up others, definitely worth a read:

Why John Mearsheimer Blames the U.S. for the Crisis in Ukraine

For years, the political scientist has claimed that Putin’s aggression toward Ukraine is caused by Western intervention. Have recent events changed his mind?

www.newyorker.com

Mearsheimer has been analyzing the Ukraine situation for years, and I think his analysis is spot on.

I fully support Ukraine, and based on the Bangladesh Accords alone I think we have a duty to protect them. Even more so as we have influenced their current political climate. To say we didn't foresee this, or even contribute to the tension that lead to this war does not mesh with reality. We continue to influence countries at a political level, with differing levels of interference. The CIA provided Saddam with arms, money and political backing, which of course was a major backfire. We funded insurgents, which allegedly included Osama Bin Laden when Russia was fighting in Afghanistan. According to a 2016 study, either through covert or overt actions, the U.S. intervened in 81 foreign elections while Russia intervened in 36, which a follow up study found the interventions determined "in many cases" the identity of the winner.

1. Levin, Dov (2018). "A Vote for Freedom? The Effects of Partisan Electoral Interventions on Regime Type". Journal of Conflict Resolution. 63 (4): 839–868. doi:10.1177/0022002718770507. S2CID 158135517.

From Putin's view, our influence in the 2014 Ukraine coup, removed a pro-Russian president for an anti-Russian president which we also had influence in getting appointed, and this interference has led to potential border issues which he has responded to. I don't agree with Putin, I don't think NATO is going to attack Putin, but this is his reasoning, which has been consistent for decades regarding how he would respond if this happened. If we had never interfered with the 2014 coup and follow-up elections, then perhaps we would have no culpability, but you when inject yourself into foreign policy to this degree, the outcome will partially rest on your shoulders.

So while Ukraine made their own decisions, they did so with our influence. As such, we owe them much more than what we are currently providing.

It is a fact that Russia and China both have a cold war mentality. If we ignore this, the results will not be pretty. President Xi has stated that the U.S. and NATO both have a cold war mentality, and believe Russia is permanently threatened by NATO, and both oppose its expansion. In a joint statement, the leaders said they opposed the "further expansion of NATO," while calling on the alliance to "abandon its ideologized Cold War approaches, respect the sovereignty, security and interests of other countries and the diversity of their civilizational, cultural and historical backgrounds, and adopt a fair and objective attitude toward the peaceful development of other countries."

Bill Perry, Clinton's Defense Secretary understood:

Opinion | This Is Putin’s War. But America and NATO Aren’t Innocent Bystanders. (Published 2022)

Russia’s president is trying to hide his poor leadership by becoming a nationalist avenger.

www.nytimes.com

In your scenario is communist Mexico leaving us alone? If the answer is yes then idgaf. Leave em alone.

 

[TheGoldStandard]

In your scenario is communist Mexico leaving us alone? If the answer is yes then idgaf. Leave em alone. Very reasonable, I would tend to do the same.

I agree, I would say do nothing. And if you ran for President, I would vote for you, but do you really expect such a reasonable response from our country or Russia?


We don't need another cold war. Unfortunately the U.S., Russia and China would all likely react similarly to such a move. Keep in mind, NATO has already accepted many former Soviet Union countries into NATO, but outside of very small slivers, none had borders with Russia as Ukraine does. Russia sees it as a critical threat to their security infrastructure.

NATO countries have weapons of war "for defensive purposes". If Russia put weapons bases on the Mexican border the claim are for defense only, I don't think our country would stand by idly. It would be seen as a risk to our national security, just like the Cuban missile crisis, which we were going to war over.

Unfortunately, superpowers tend to react negatively when adversaries put weapons of war on your doorstep.

I am not justifying Putin's actions, I am stating we shouldn't be surprised by them. And if we never interfered in Ukraine or pushed for them to join NATO, I don't think Ukraine would be under attack now.

We shouldn't be surprised. And right or wrong, our actions contributed to this. We owe it to the people of Ukraine to do more.

 

[fishonjazz]

I agree, I would say do nothing. And if you ran for President, I would vote for you, but do you really expect such a reasonable response from our country or Russia?


We don't need another cold war. Unfortunately the U.S., Russia and China would all likely react similarly to such a move. Keep in mind, NATO has already accepted many former Soviet Union countries into NATO, but outside of very small slivers, none had borders with Russia as Ukraine does. Russia sees it as a critical threat to their security infrastructure.

NATO countries have weapons of war "for defensive purposes". If Russia put weapons bases on the Mexican border the claim are for defense only, I don't think our country would stand by idly. It would be seen as a risk to our national security, just like the Cuban missile crisis, which we were going to war over.

Unfortunately, superpowers tend to react negatively when adversaries put weapons of war on your doorstep.

I am not justifying Putin's actions, I am stating we shouldn't be surprised by them. And if we never interfered in Ukraine or pushed for them to join NATO, I don't think Ukraine would be under attack now.

We shouldn't be surprised. And right or wrong, our actions contributed to this. We owe it to the people of Ukraine to do more.

Fair. I agree. Our government would probably try to stop Mexico.

 

[gandalfe]

“Russia cannot be expected to sit back and do nothing while our Black Sea ports are overrun by Ukrainians, as they have been for the better part of recorded history."

Putin Condemns Ukrainian People’s Unprovoked 1,000-Year Occupation Of South Russia

MOSCOW—Condemning the actions of the Ukranians over the past millennium as “completely unacceptable by the standards of free and civilized people,” Russian president Vladimir Putin condemned on Monday the unprovoked 1,000-year Ukrainian occupation of South Russia. “We will no longer stand for...

www.theonion.com

 

[TheGoldStandard]

Fair. I agree. Our government would probably try to stop Mexico.

And why would Russia be any different?

And to be clear, Putin’s decision was a free choice. We didn't force him to go to war.

I am explaining why it happened, and stating we should have anticipated our actions would lead to this. I am not justifying Putin's actions or even saying we should or shouldn't have interfered. We should know what our interference would lead to. At this point, we need to protect Ukraine.

 

[fishonjazz]

This war sucks. It did not happen under Trump. Creating whatever beautiful people fantasy about Trump won't change the fact.

This is your homeboy


The same person that thinks we should put Chinese flags on our jets and fly them into Russia and bomb Russia, tricking them into thinking that china is bombing them, therefore starting a war between china and Russia.
Same dude who thinks that you should launch a nuke into a hurricane to stop it. Same dude who thinks it might be a good idea to inject disinfectants into your body. Same dude who thought we should build a moat around the wall and fill it with alligators and snakes. He thinks global warming is good because it will create more waterfront property. He thought it a good idea to tell a bunch of raving lunatics to March on the capital and fight. He thought it a good idea to extort the president of Ukraine for his own political gain. He thought it a good idea to donate to the stop the steal fund so Bannon could steal your money. He frauded charities.
Your man is a buffoon

 

[Gameface]

This is your homeboy


The same person that thinks we should put Chinese flags on our jets and fly them into Russia and bomb Russia, tricking them into thinking that china is bombing them, therefore starting a war between china and Russia.
Same dude who thinks that you should launch a nuke into a hurricane to stop it. Same dude who thinks it might be a good idea to inject disinfectants into your body. Same dude who thought we should build a moat around the wall and fill it with alligators and snakes. He thinks global warming is good because it will create more waterfront property. He thought it a good idea to tell a bunch of raving lunatics to March on the capital and fight. He thought it a good idea to extort the president of Ukraine for his own political gain. He thought it a good idea to donate to the stop the steal fund so Bannon could steal your money. He frauded charities.
Your man is a buffoon

No no no, you've been brainwashed into thinking those things that came straight out of his mouth are bad things. If you weren't brainwashed you'd know how smart all of those things are but too bad for you CNN, which you clearly sit in front of a TV and watch for 12+ hours a day, has brainwashed you.

 

[Avery]

Saw a video today of all the mass graves in Mariupol and how many bodies are filling them of civilians caught in this war. No funerals for those who perished, just buried alongside dozens of others anonymously.

Anyone who thinks any liberation is occurring is a fool.

 

[babe]

“Russia cannot be expected to sit back and do nothing while our Black Sea ports are overrun by Ukrainians, as they have been for the better part of recorded history."

Putin Condemns Ukrainian People’s Unprovoked 1,000-Year Occupation Of South Russia

MOSCOW—Condemning the actions of the Ukranians over the past millennium as “completely unacceptable by the standards of free and civilized people,” Russian president Vladimir Putin condemned on Monday the unprovoked 1,000-year Ukrainian occupation of South Russia. “We will no longer stand for...

www.theonion.com

"The Navajo Nation continues it's naked aggression on ancient Hualapai ancestral lands." Overwhelming numbers force God's people into a narrow slot canyon.

Hualapai Tribe Grand Canyon: Read The Hualapai Tribe History

Immerse yourself in the captivating story of the Hualapai Tribe at Grand Canyon and experience their vibrant heritage firsthand.

grandcanyonwest.com

Seriously, shouldn't Texas and California really belong to Mexico?

As one of the few (billion) who are descended from Jean d' Arc and Charlemagne, and the Vikings, I declare Kiev the true capital of ancient Europe, and my ancestral home. Everyone else should just leave. Go to Florida. This land is mine.

now, finally.......

No one can trace any ancestral borders over the plains of Europe or the steppes of Russia. Genghis Khan and Attila the Hun really ran amok. Catharine the Great built Odessa, Scandinavian Vikings build Kiev. The Rus in Russia is for the Viking "Red". Moscow was the city built by Vikings for Viking trade, the portage point between the rivers flowing west to the Baltic and South to the Back Sea.

If not for some historical issues like Josef Stalin's (a Jew like Soros, mind you) genocidal operations seizing the harvest of Ukraine, and starving the people there, Ukraine would naturally have cultural and historic ties closer to Russia than the USA, but what the hell.

The reason globalism sucks is just this. A few people with overwhelming weapons, overwhelming wealth, just want to re-draw the map and somehow make it all theirs.

The reason a limited constitutional representative government works is because it means people close to home get to make life better for themselves.

"Putin's War" and his authoritarian oligarchic monstrosity isn't good even for Russia, but's it's better than communism or an outside-contrived government will be when installed, based on oligarchic or fascist principles all the same.

 

[One Brow]

It did not happen under Trump.

What would Trump have said or done to prevent it?

 

[One Brow]

Unreasonable or not, we did it in Cuba.

The weapons in Cuba were a response to US/NATO weapons in Turkey. However, Cuba itself was solidly aligned with the Soviet Union for over two decades without our invading them.

 

[babe]

What would Trump have said or done to prevent it?

Trump would be listening to a bunch of folks including NATO leaders. He gave Ukraine some weapons where Obama did not. He would have made pals with Zelensky and investigated corruption that crosses borders and influences elections in both countries.

But most of all, he wouldn't have just looked so damn weak. He would have got our people and our troops out of Afghanistan efficiently, and he would have kept the airbase at Bagram, sort of like Guantanamo in Cuba.

At some point someone would have told him about the history of our diplomatic relations with Russia and our treaties and promises not to move NATO forces closer to Moscow when the Berlin Wall came down. Then he would have respected those promises and worked with Russia on further disarmament agreements, and maybe got Russia into NATO itself. Boy that would have made Xi get his briefs in a bunch. But who knows, maybe with Russia assured of its territorial integrity and national security, we could have decommissioned a whole lot of nukes, and got China and Iran and Pakistan and India and Israel to do likewise. We might have disbanded NATO as a useless relic of a bygone war-crazed world. He might have made the USA a part of BRICS or the Belt and Road, too. And after all that, Russian oil would be in our supply chain as well. Cheap. Very Cheap. And we' be better prepared for the next cold climate swing or even coming Ice Age. A whole lot of Stupid would just go away, like nonsense race mongering, no more hate being taught in our schools. Just kids being kids and learning to get along with others. Parents getting the respect they deserve in educating their children, not being called terrorists by Washington bureaucrats hell-bent on doing the Grand Cloward/Piven take down of America.

 

[Gameface]

Trump would listen to other people? Please provide one ****ing iota of proof that he has ever done that one time. And I mean one time when he wasn't just listening to someone tell him how great he is.

 

[JimLes]

One of the things that I have been preaching for years and is becoming ever more obvious by the day is that Boris Yeltsin was one of the greatest men of the 20th century.

For all his personal and political flaws, we as humanity owe him for the disaster he prevented 30 years ago. That Soviet Union broke up the way it did and that we didn't see brutal(and even nuclear) warfare seems incredible in hindsight. So much of this is because of Yeltsin.

His decision, as the president of the biggest and most powerful of the 15 Soviet republics to say that the Union was a union of republics who were free to leave in whatever borders had been drawn since the Revolution prevented so much bloodshed. I say this as someone who lived through the breakup of Yugoslavia at the same time where things took the opposite turn.

Several republics had huge Russian minorities. Latvia was 34% Russian, Estonia 30%, and Kazakhstan almost 40%. Kazakhstan was actually ethnically majority Russian until around 1980. That doesn't include places like Ukraine where the percentage was smaller but the absolute numbers were big. All in all, 25 million Russians lived in republics other than Russia in 1989. Only one ethnicity in Soviet Union(other than the Russians) even numbered 25 million at the time.

The most dangerous thing was that in cases of some of the republics like Latvia or Kazakhstan, ethnic Russians weren't just concentrated in large cities, but also as compact blocks along the border with Russia. It would've been easy for Yeltsin to claim that borders were unfair and that ethnic Russians were persecuted and use force to fix it. It was made even easier by the fact that some of these republics weren't exactly kind to their Russian minorities either. Latvia declared that the citizenship of their newly independent state would only be conferred automatically on those whose parents or grandparents held Latvian citizenship in 1940. That affected anyone whose family moved there during Soviet times. Remember that USSR was not a country where you moved freely. You moved to Latvia because you were ordered to do so. You didn't look for work, it was assigned to you and you went wherever you were told.

10% of Latvia's population doesn't have Latvian citizenship right now. Most of them were born in Latvia. Due to the way citizenship laws work in other former Soviet states, they also don't have citizenship of whatever other republic their grandparents or parents moved from. These people are stateless. Latvia wasn't the only country to do this. Estonia did it, too. It is very much discrimination. In all former Soviet republics, the share of ethnic Russians fell as they moved out.

Yeltsin's greatness was in realizing this was not worth fighting over. Not when the whole country and even the world could be embroiled in this war. Now, this wasn't perfect. Under Yeltsin, Russia did get involved in conflicts in Transnistria, Nagorno Karabakh, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Adjara. 4 of the 5 are still ongoing, but it's nothing compared to what could've happened.

What Putin has been doing the past decade or so has been undoing so much of that.

 

[babe]

Trump would listen to other people? Please provide one ****ing iota of proof that he has ever done that one time. And I mean one time when he wasn't just listening to someone tell him how great he is.

I know you think I am as smart as Trump says he is,but hey, you're a joke. Other people who have been around Trump, even his political opponents, will tell you the way he learns more than anybody else can learn is by listening to people who know. Not who know it all, but who do know something. Therefore, so far as he knows, he believes he knows what they know about almost any subject, plus whatever he can pitch in.

But after he listens he makes decisions, and expects you to listen.

In comparison, Biden doesn't care what you say. He listens to the important people, and does what they expect. He's the genius who doesn't need to know a goddamned thing. It's so easy that way.

Trump stood up as a candidate and realized that a lot of Americans wanted something different.

 

[Ron Mexico]

So people are saying Russia doesnt want Ukraine to Join NATO because it will make their borders unsafe if they potentially become a member. So instead they are taking over Ukraine so they can border actual NATO countries, that makes sense. I mean its not like Russia doesnt border other NATO countries already. I think they already border 5 NATO countries.

 

[The Thriller]

Why are people saying that putin did this because of NATO? Like that’s been thoroughly debunked for weeks now. He believes Ukraine should be part of Russia, either officially annexed or unofficially a puppet state. This goes back to the history and culture of Russia and Ukraine. They have a significant history.

Also, Putin can’t afford to have Ukraine become a successful liberal democracy because that would really pose a challenge to his own power in Russia. He doesn’t want to see a people so closely related to fellow Russians experience success with Europe and the west. Imagine what regular Russians in their totalitarian ******** would think!

NATO doesn’t have anything to do with this. Those who still think NATO was the motivation behind this really need to read up on those who actually know what the hell they’re talking about. And as other posters have already stated, annexing Ukraine actually brings Putin closer to NATO.

How Putin Wants Russians to See the War in Ukraine

Even if his hold on power is precarious, he can still convince Russians that the whole world is conspiring against them.

www.newyorker.com

The Reason Putin Would Risk War

He is threatening to invade Ukraine because he wants democracy to fail—and not just in that country.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[Gameface]

So people are saying Russia doesnt want Ukraine to Join NATO because it will make their borders unsafe if they potentially become a member. So instead they are taking over Ukraine so they can border actual NATO countries, that makes sense. I mean its not like Russia doesnt border other NATO countries already. I think they already border 5 NATO countries.

That isn't it and has never been it. Putin feels that Ukraine is Russia. Not just sort of. Sir Kicky *** had a pretty important post where he explains this at length.

 

[Gameface]

Why are people saying that putin did this because of NATO? Like that’s been thoroughly debunked for weeks now. He believes Ukraine should be part of Russia, either officially annexed or unofficially a puppet state. This goes back to the history and culture of Russia and Ukraine. They have a significant history.

Also, Putin can’t afford to have Ukraine become a successful liberal democracy because that would really pose a challenge to his own power in Russia. He doesn’t want to see a people so closely related to fellow Russians experience success with Europe and the west. Imagine what regular Russians in their totalitarian ******** would think!

NATO doesn’t have anything to do with this. Those who still think NATO was the motivation behind this really need to read up on those who actually know what the hell they’re talking about. And as other posters have already stated, annexing Ukraine actually brings Putin closer to NATO.

How Putin Wants Russians to See the War in Ukraine

Even if his hold on power is precarious, he can still convince Russians that the whole world is conspiring against them.

www.newyorker.com

The Reason Putin Would Risk War

He is threatening to invade Ukraine because he wants democracy to fail—and not just in that country.

www.theatlantic.com

I disagree with this in part. This isn't because Putin doesn't want Ukraine to be an example of something else, it's because Putin sees Ukraine as inextricably part of Russia.

So in a way that is a good point, that if the core of Russian culture can be a democracy and part of the west then there is no reason, other than Putin, that Russia couldn't also be like that.

The fundamental point is that Putin feels strongly that Ukraine IS Russia and Russia IS Ukraine.

Ukraine feels differently and Putin can't handle that.