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The *OFFICIAL* Russia Is About To Invade Ukraine Thread

JimLes said:
One of the things that I have been preaching for years and is becoming ever more obvious by the day is that Boris Yeltsin was one of the greatest men of the 20th century.

For all his personal and political flaws, we as humanity owe him for the disaster he prevented 30 years ago. That Soviet Union broke up the way it did and that we didn't see brutal(and even nuclear) warfare seems incredible in hindsight. So much of this is because of Yeltsin.

His decision, as the president of the biggest and most powerful of the 15 Soviet republics to say that the Union was a union of republics who were free to leave in whatever borders had been drawn since the Revolution prevented so much bloodshed. I say this as someone who lived through the breakup of Yugoslavia at the same time where things took the opposite turn.

Several republics had huge Russian minorities. Latvia was 34% Russian, Estonia 30%, and Kazakhstan almost 40%. Kazakhstan was actually ethnically majority Russian until around 1980. That doesn't include places like Ukraine where the percentage was smaller but the absolute numbers were big. All in all, 25 million Russians lived in republics other than Russia in 1989. Only one ethnicity in Soviet Union(other than the Russians) even numbered 25 million at the time.

The most dangerous thing was that in cases of some of the republics like Latvia or Kazakhstan, ethnic Russians weren't just concentrated in large cities, but also as compact blocks along the border with Russia. It would've been easy for Yeltsin to claim that borders were unfair and that ethnic Russians were persecuted and use force to fix it. It was made even easier by the fact that some of these republics weren't exactly kind to their Russian minorities either. Latvia declared that the citizenship of their newly independent state would only be conferred automatically on those whose parents or grandparents held Latvian citizenship in 1940. That affected anyone whose family moved there during Soviet times. Remember that USSR was not a country where you moved freely. You moved to Latvia because you were ordered to do so. You didn't look for work, it was assigned to you and you went wherever you were told.

10% of Latvia's population doesn't have Latvian citizenship right now. Most of them were born in Latvia. Due to the way citizenship laws work in other former Soviet states, they also don't have citizenship of whatever other republic their grandparents or parents moved from. These people are stateless. Latvia wasn't the only country to do this. Estonia did it, too. It is very much discrimination. In all former Soviet republics, the share of ethnic Russians fell as they moved out.

Yeltsin's greatness was in realizing this was not worth fighting over. Not when the whole country and even the world could be embroiled in this war. Now, this wasn't perfect. Under Yeltsin, Russia did get involved in conflicts in Transnistria, Nagorno Karabakh, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Adjara. 4 of the 5 are still ongoing, but it's nothing compared to what could've happened.

What Putin has been doing the past decade or so has been undoing so much of that.
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I would add, that without indirect support from Russia to Serbia, the Balkan conflict would have been little bit milder?
Otherwise - 12 points!
 
I recommend Tuesday night’s edition of Frontline…

www.pbs.org

Putin's Road to War | FRONTLINE

Watch "Putin's Road to War," FRONTLINE's March 2022 documentary on what led to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine.
www.pbs.org

The opening 4 minutes. Interesting to see Putin humiliate his intelligence chief….



Full episode:

 
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Gameface said:
I disagree with this in part. This isn't because Putin doesn't want Ukraine to be an example of something else, it's because Putin sees Ukraine as inextricably part of Russia.

So in a way that is a good point, that if the core of Russian culture can be a democracy and part of the west then there is no reason, other than Putin, that Russia couldn't also be like that.

The fundamental point is that Putin feels strongly that Ukraine IS Russia and Russia IS Ukraine.

Ukraine feels differently and Putin can't handle that.
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www.nytimes.com

Putin’s War on Ukraine Is About Ethnicity and Empire (Published 2022)

Biden’s framework of ‘democracies versus autocracies’ misses the darker source of this war, which has deep roots in Russian history and thought.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

Mr. Putin has repeatedly asserted that Ukraine is not a real state and that the Ukrainians are not a real people, but actually Russian, part of a Slavic heartland that also includes Belarus.

“Putin wants to consolidate the civilizational border of Russia, as he calls it, and he is doing that by invading a sovereign European country,” said Ivan Vejvoda, a senior fellow at the Institute of Human Sciences in Vienna.
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In this sense, argues Ivan Krastev, the war is one of recolonization, capturing lands ruled by the Russian empire and the Soviet Union. “Even if Ukraine were autocratic, it would not be tolerated by Putin,” he said. “He’s reconsolidating imperial nationalism.’’
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Seems to describe what you just described
 
Ron Mexico said:
So people are saying Russia doesnt want Ukraine to Join NATO because it will make their borders unsafe if they potentially become a member. So instead they are taking over Ukraine so they can border actual NATO countries, that makes sense. I mean its not like Russia doesnt border other NATO countries already. I think they already border 5 NATO countries.
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When you say, “people are saying Russia doesn’t want Ukraine to join NATO”, who are these people? American news outlets (other than Fox News and OAN, I don’t know of other news outlets saying this)? American friends? Or Chinese state news? It’s been widely reported here that Chinese news has adopted the pro Kremlin line and I’m curious if that’s their line? Or are they going the whole 9 yards claiming that Russia is off to fight a glorious war to de-nazify Ukraine and rid the world of Ukrainian biolabs?

China finds itself in an interesting positions. I’m sure Xi can relate to Putin’s autocratic feelings. But if he supports Putin he risks alienating the west. The west is a far greater trading partner than Russia. Plus the weaker Russia becomes the more desperate they might get to unload their natural resources to China.

China isn’t exactly in a great position to help Russia, right? They’re dealing with financial/economic issues and another Covid wave, right?

Interesting times we live in
 
Gameface said:
So in a way that is a good point, that if the core of Russian culture can be a democracy and part of the west then there is no reason, other than Putin, that Russia couldn't also be like that.
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I'm not so sure about this part. I can't find any polls of Russian populace on whether they believe Ukrainians are just Russians with an odd accent or not, but I feel like most of them do. This isn't just some idea of Putin's, this seems to be a deeply held belief in the society. At least based on what I've been able to gather.

When you see all the Russian celebrities who are speaking out against this war, they actually seem to use the same rhetoric as Putin. "We are one people, this war is wrong." At its core, this is just a difference in methods. They would convince Ukrainians nicely to be part of Russia.
Navalny has been made into an almost Mandela-like figure simply because he opposes Putin(and is currently protesting against the war) but his previous comments on Ukraine and other issues clearly paint him as a Russian nationalist of broadly the same stock as Putin.
 
One of my favorite songs of all time.
Very fitting right now with the Ukraine Russia war.
 
fishonjazz said:
One of my favorite songs of all time.
Very fitting right now with the Ukraine Russia war.
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Some of my favorite lyrics from this song that make me think of current affair:
"Its not about win or lose, cause we all lose when we feed on souls of the innocent, blood drenched pavement, keep on movin while the waters stay raging."
and
"Someday this all will change
treat people the same
stop with the violence
down with the hate
one day we'll all be free
and proud to be
under the same sun singing songs of freedom"

I think we should make this song the national anthem of planet Earth
 
Last one I promise.
This dude invited 3,000 people who didn't know each other to come sing this song together in 3 different languages (it explains this at the beginning of the video). It took them 1 hour to learn their parts. Pretty cool to see/hear. Brings tears to my eyes
 
It always strikes me as a little odd that enforcing a no-fly-zone is instigating yourself into the conflict yet giving billions of dollars in aid, weapons, etc. is somehow not a declaration of picking a side. Just weird dynamics.

It's readily apparent to me that Russia thought this was going to be a cake walk, but have underestimated the resolve of Ukraine and the world stage. Putin has set his country back another 30 years.
 
LogGrad98 said:
Even that didn't work. Still can't see the video.

@fishonjazz what song is it?
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One Day by a dude named matisyahu. Give it a listen. The lyrics are fantastic. Maybe even watch the video with the lyrics on screen.
 
The Thriller said:
When you say, “people are saying Russia doesn’t want Ukraine to join NATO”, who are these people? American news outlets (other than Fox News and OAN, I don’t know of other news outlets saying this)? American friends? Or Chinese state news? It’s been widely reported here that Chinese news has adopted the pro Kremlin line and I’m curious if that’s their line? Or are they going the whole 9 yards claiming that Russia is off to fight a glorious war to de-nazify Ukraine and rid the world of Ukrainian biolabs?

China finds itself in an interesting positions. I’m sure Xi can relate to Putin’s autocratic feelings. But if he supports Putin he risks alienating the west. The west is a far greater trading partner than Russia. Plus the weaker Russia becomes the more desperate they might get to unload their natural resources to China.

China isn’t exactly in a great position to help Russia, right? They’re dealing with financial/economic issues and another Covid wave, right?

Interesting times we live in
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I mean Russia has said it doesnt want Ukraine to join NATO, people are saying that, and media are reporting it everywhere. As far as that being the reason to invade, I dont think that at all but many people including people in this thread are making that assertion.

As far as China goes there media isnt reporting much about it. People here generally are okay with the war because its weakening the west/USA, some are in support of Russia, and some are supportive of Ukraine.

From the Government side and USA media... That is too much to discuss. But, firstly usa media and people in the usa in generally dont really know much about China and are way off in regards to most things like this. The China situation with Taiwan is very different and the Russia and China are very different. China cares about itself and that is it. It does not care about Russia. It is taking a somewhat neutral stance but recently is switching more towards Ukraine because that is economically smart. China want no part of a war and there is no chance they would send military to other countries for something like this. Their military is to protect itself so it isnt decimated and humiliated again like it was for a long period. They went from one of the more advanced and well along countries to complete ruin allowing communism to sweep in. USA still says taiwan is part of China and the Taiwan straight situation is okay. China is okay with that and doesnt not want to have a war over it. They dont want an excuse for the west to attack them.

China is dealing with a small covid outbreak but it isnt really effecting things. Its been the same since it started with how its handled. China's economy was hurt by covid especially at first but its bounced back. They opened up and got back to a somewhat normal situation quicker than any other country. They could help Russia if they wanted, but I seriously doubt they would want to since it does not benefit them and will most likely lead to sanctions against China that would hurt them a lot.
 
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