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Game Thread NBA Draft Lottery - May 12, 2025

Added to Calendar: 05-12-25

Lock in your predictions now!

I predict:

Jazz - Pick #5

Keep in mind there is only a 42% chance one of the worst 3 teams wins this thing. There is a 58% chance of someone outside the worst 3 to leapfrog into the top spot. Jazz top odds are for them getting the 5th pick.

My prediction for top 6:

1 - San Antonio
2 - Philly
3 - Dallas
4 - Washington
5 - Utah
6 - Charlotte

This is following the Conspiracy Model of NBA Draft Positions pr CMONDP™, or C'MON DAP! According to C'MON DAP, the NBA wants bigger name franchises to get the best stars, and they owe Dallas since they completely reamed them with no lube during the regular season. The worst we can get is 5th, so that is where we will fall of course.


Here is the current odds:


TEAMRECORDWIN%LOTTERY ODDS
Utah17-65.20714.0
Washington18-64.22014.0
Charlotte19-63.23214.0
New Orleans21-61.25612.5
Philadelphia*24-58.29310.5
Brooklyn26-56.3179.0
Toronto30-52.3667.5
San Antonio34-48.4156.0
Phoenix (to Houston via Brooklyn)36-46.4393.8
Portland36-46.4393.7
Dallas39-43.4761.8
Chicago39-43.4761.7
Sacramento^40-42.4880.8
Atlanta (to San Antonio)40-42.4880.7
 
Last edited:
Man the first SIM I ran ended up about where I expected, check it out.

1746719704992.png

San Antonio, Philly and Brooklyn all moving up. Makes perfect sense. And we end up in **SUPRISE**, 5th.
 
I ran the SIM 20 times. 1 time we ended up with the #1 pick. 1 time we ended up #2. All the rest we ended up 4th or 5th. Toronto, weirdly enough, ended up 1st 5 times. San Antonio ended up 1st 4 times. The rest were scattered around, but almost every one of them had San Antonio and Philly in the top 4, most of them ahead of the Jazz.
 
LogGrad98 said:
I ran the SIM 20 times. 1 time we ended up with the #1 pick. 1 time we ended up #2. All the rest we ended up 4th or 5th. Toronto, weirdly enough, ended up 1st 5 times. San Antonio ended up 1st 4 times. The rest were scattered around, but almost every one of them had San Antonio and Philly in the top 4, most of them ahead of the Jazz.
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My kinda hot take is that Utah through Brooklyn will get the first pick.
 
LogGrad98 said:
I ran the SIM 20 times. 1 time we ended up with the #1 pick. 1 time we ended up #2. All the rest we ended up 4th or 5th. Toronto, weirdly enough, ended up 1st 5 times. San Antonio ended up 1st 4 times. The rest were scattered around, but almost every one of them had San Antonio and Philly in the top 4, most of them ahead of the Jazz.
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We only have a 14% chance at #1.

It’s to be expected.
 
seattlejazzfan said:
top 3 is all i'm asking of the bball gods. of course, i prefer #1, but i'm good with top 3.
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The bball gods consist of Adam Silver and the owners. They will divvy out the prospects as they see fit. So, naturally, we will get pick #5.
 
LogGrad98 said:
I ran the SIM 20 times. 1 time we ended up with the #1 pick. 1 time we ended up #2. All the rest we ended up 4th or 5th. Toronto, weirdly enough, ended up 1st 5 times. San Antonio ended up 1st 4 times. The rest were scattered around, but almost every one of them had San Antonio and Philly in the top 4, most of them ahead of the Jazz.
Click to expand...
I just ran 20 and here’s my breakdown:

1: twice (10%)
2: once (5%)
3: none
4: seven (35%)
5: ten (50%)

Happy Thursday, everyone.
 
The Midnight said:
So we have a coin toss chance at the 5th pick?

Wow.. that sucks.
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The odds favor us ending up with the 5th pick. It seems, even looking more at past drafts, that the teams in the 4th-8th spots have better chances of ending up in #1 or #2. One of them, as a group, has a better chance at it than we do, frankly. So it seems they have managed to break the lottery down so that tanking does not guarantee anything.
 
LogGrad98 said:
The odds favor us ending up with the 5th pick. It seems, even looking more at past drafts, that the teams in the 4th-8th spots have better chances of ending up in #1 or #2. One of them, as a group, has a better chance at it than we do, frankly. So it seems they have managed to break the lottery down so that tanking does not guarantee anything.
Click to expand...
I can confirm that the team 4-8 do not have a better chance landing at 1 or 2. My source is math. Its a small sample and yes we likely end up at 5... but we still gave ourselves the best chance which was the responsible thing to do.
 
There's some kind of rounding error going on in this chart though. Some of the teams percentages (2 and 3 in particular) don't add up to 100%
 
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