That’s fair. I don’t think DX ever had Demin falling out of the lottery, and Givony is probably the most clued in guy there is.
Following Potential 2025 Draftees
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That’s fair. I don’t think DX ever had Demin falling out of the lottery, and Givony is probably the most clued in guy there is.
HadAnEffectHere
Well-Known Member
A big issue for Demin is that he was bad in college and it's extremely hard to envision any path for him in the NBA that is interesting.
His ceiling is probably Josh Giddey who is like... Not an interesting player who can hang in the postseason at all?
Outside of Cody Williams, Demin will probably be the single worst college basketball player picked in the lottery in a very long time.
His ceiling is probably Josh Giddey who is like... Not an interesting player who can hang in the postseason at all?
Outside of Cody Williams, Demin will probably be the single worst college basketball player picked in the lottery in a very long time.
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@NUMBERICA Someone has taken your throne as the most elite catastrophizer.
HadAnEffectHere
Well-Known Member
Demin averaged 10 PPG on bad efficiency in college. His advanced stats aren't far off from Cody Williams'.
I just don't see how he ever could be more than Josh Giddey at very best and... Josh Giddey is going to be a huge liability in the postseason any time he gets there.
I just don't see how he ever could be more than Josh Giddey at very best and... Josh Giddey is going to be a huge liability in the postseason any time he gets there.
Josh Giddey’s ceiling isn’t Josh Giddey. He’s 22 years old. I’m not even a huge Giddey guy, but he’s about to make over $100M… and if he makes some improvements, he can absolutely be a playoff player. Hell, if Giddey’s shooting from this season maintains I’d say he’s already good enough to be a playoff player. There are many avenues for Giddey to get there and while it may not be likely, it’s in the realm of possibility that Demin can develop those things. Even if you think Giddey sucks and Demin sucks, it’s still interesting to have an elite passer at that size.
I get that people can be too optimistic around the draft… but you’re doing too much here. It looks desperate when you try to define Demin by his scoring when that’s clearly not his biggest strength. Totally not avoiding his greatest ability and the reason why someone might be interested. If you don’t think a player is good, you should be able to do that while giving him a fair shake.
His advanced numbers are just fine btw. If you want to see what a really bad lottery pick looks like, check out Ziaire Williams.
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Tre Johnson is the best overall shooter and shot maker in the 2025 NBA Draft class. He’s quite honestly one of the best shooting/scoring prospects in a while especially for a Freshman.
Let’s take a look at his overall shooting package from three:
- 39.7% from three overall
- 40.8% C&S threes (51/135)
- 41.6% guarded C&S threes (32/77)
- 39.6% unguarded C&S threes (19/48)
That is a very percentage on C&S threes overall.
- 52.1% off screens (25/48)
- 54.8% threes off screens (17/31)
- 1.3 PPP off screens
His movement shooting off of screens would be a welcome addition to any team. Those are ELITE numbers off screens.
- 44.2% transition threes (23/52)
- 52% transition overall (52/100)
- 1.26 PPP in transition
Tre is very comfortable scoring the ball in transition and his numbers from three are extremely good.
- 37.1% OTD jumpers (72/194)
- 38.4% OTD threes (38/99)
Off the dribble jumpers are one of the hardest things for young players to excel at. Tre’s numbers for off the dribble threes is great especially for the volume.
- 41.8% PnR scorer (38/91)
- 34.8% off isolations (30/86)
- 59.8% finishing (58/97)
- 50% post- ups (18/36)
- 1.08 PPP for post-ups
These numbers show his all-around offensive game. He scored the ball in pick-and-roll, off isolations, finishing, and in the post. I think his numbers in the post although small volume is something that is very intriguing and I would like to see him explore that a little more in the future.
One part of his game that I believe is underrated is his passing. He finished with a 16.5 AST% which is higher than you’d think after first glance.
He also had a 25.8 BTP% (big-time passes percentage).
Tre is one of only four Freshman ever to average 19+ PPG, make 80+ threes, shoot 38%+ from three, and have a 112+ offensive rating in their Freshman season (Jamal Murray, Malik Monk, D’Angelo Russell).
There was a stretch in February where he had scored 29+ points in three straight games.
Tre had three total games with 30+ points.
Johnson broke Kevin Durant’s record at Texas for most points in a game as a Freshman at Texas with 39 points on the Ross against Arkansas.
He finished with 15 games with 20+ points which is right at the top of the list for Freshman this year just behind Dylan Harper who had 17 total and Cooper Flagg who had 16 total.
I think Johnson will be a very good scorer and shooter at the next level. I buy his passing upside as well. I think his high end outcome is a 25+ PPG scorer in the NBA on good efficiency.
Let’s take a look at his overall shooting package from three:
- 39.7% from three overall
- 40.8% C&S threes (51/135)
- 41.6% guarded C&S threes (32/77)
- 39.6% unguarded C&S threes (19/48)
That is a very percentage on C&S threes overall.
- 52.1% off screens (25/48)
- 54.8% threes off screens (17/31)
- 1.3 PPP off screens
His movement shooting off of screens would be a welcome addition to any team. Those are ELITE numbers off screens.
- 44.2% transition threes (23/52)
- 52% transition overall (52/100)
- 1.26 PPP in transition
Tre is very comfortable scoring the ball in transition and his numbers from three are extremely good.
- 37.1% OTD jumpers (72/194)
- 38.4% OTD threes (38/99)
Off the dribble jumpers are one of the hardest things for young players to excel at. Tre’s numbers for off the dribble threes is great especially for the volume.
- 41.8% PnR scorer (38/91)
- 34.8% off isolations (30/86)
- 59.8% finishing (58/97)
- 50% post- ups (18/36)
- 1.08 PPP for post-ups
These numbers show his all-around offensive game. He scored the ball in pick-and-roll, off isolations, finishing, and in the post. I think his numbers in the post although small volume is something that is very intriguing and I would like to see him explore that a little more in the future.
One part of his game that I believe is underrated is his passing. He finished with a 16.5 AST% which is higher than you’d think after first glance.
He also had a 25.8 BTP% (big-time passes percentage).
Tre is one of only four Freshman ever to average 19+ PPG, make 80+ threes, shoot 38%+ from three, and have a 112+ offensive rating in their Freshman season (Jamal Murray, Malik Monk, D’Angelo Russell).
There was a stretch in February where he had scored 29+ points in three straight games.
Tre had three total games with 30+ points.
Johnson broke Kevin Durant’s record at Texas for most points in a game as a Freshman at Texas with 39 points on the Ross against Arkansas.
He finished with 15 games with 20+ points which is right at the top of the list for Freshman this year just behind Dylan Harper who had 17 total and Cooper Flagg who had 16 total.
I think Johnson will be a very good scorer and shooter at the next level. I buy his passing upside as well. I think his high end outcome is a 25+ PPG scorer in the NBA on good efficiency.
seattlejazzfan
Well-Known Member
Tre Johnson is a great prospect.
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kcgar
Well-Known Member
It Is infuriating.
Thanks for putting this together. Extremely impressive stuff here.
What is Big Time passes percentage?
Someone on draft twitter basically created it themselves. It’s the percentage of passes that are high level that the player makes. It’s subjective to the person doing it but I just asked him to expand on it a little more. I will share what he says.
Just thought it was super cool!
I love his size. I would like him to get to the rim more than he does. He’s obviously not the best defender.
I think at 5 he’s about as good of a prospect as you could ask for. I think there is a chance he goes 3 or 4.
Sam Vecenie was saying he had one of the best shooting workouts he’s ever watched in person. He also says he goes so hard in every workout and every single rep.
HadAnEffectHere
Well-Known Member
Givony still has Fears at #5 to the Jazz.
At the combine, other teams were speculating a lot about PG13 and #3 for Durant or Markkanen, but unclear if any of that came from the Jazz, 76ers, or Suns or if it was just teams idly talking.
At the combine, other teams were speculating a lot about PG13 and #3 for Durant or Markkanen, but unclear if any of that came from the Jazz, 76ers, or Suns or if it was just teams idly talking.
seattlejazzfan
Well-Known Member
well said. it's extremely rare air for power conference freshmen with nba positional length and size to average 20 ppg. and when they do, they get drafted top 5 every time. this is why i bring up the idea of people overthinking things. yeah, you can watch Tre and find weaknesses - but you can do that with every prospect. they all have warts. but you don't average 20 as a true freshman in the SEC unless you are just damn good at basketball.
Those are a couple things that are just not my style. Ideally you have both the size and the production, but for me I don’t see size/athleticism as a big plus when you don’t do the things those are supposed to help with. I’m sure his size athleticism plays a part in his ability to shoot over defenders and gives him vision over the the defense. But his rebounds, stocks, and rim pressure are just all so low I think it reflects poorly on him as an athlete and very poorly on him as a defender. Those are indicators I believe in strongly and he’s just lacking in a big way.
I see the combine stuff, just not for me. I think it’s fun stuff to talk about, but it’s rarely something that will change my opinion and I’d argue that his actual size and length being great just highlights his lack of activity even more. Same thing kinda goes for the workout stuff. It’s just not my cup of tea to put a lot of weight on the workouts. I prefer to use the numbers like you presented.
Thee Idiotic Minivan K
Well-Known Member
I think it will take some time but I think Tre can turn into an elite #1 option. He’s a gifted scorer and best freshmen offensive player Texas has had since Durant.
From Givony in his latest mock draft article this morning.
Thee Idiotic Minivan K
Well-Known Member
We keep pick 5?