Following Potential 2025 Draftees

[HadAnEffectHere]

Will be interesting to see if Will Hardy has any more input after his extension.

Hardy doesn't seem to like Keyonte, Sensabaugh, or Cody due to the playstyle of the first two and Cody's uhhhh, everything... So I could see him arguing against Ace Bailey potentially.

But I don't know if Ainge or Smith care very much about which players he likes.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

It would be great if the Wiz were locked in on Queen. It would be phenomenal if Hornets reach for Khaman.

I just really wish I knew what Philly was thinking. I think the Hornets could be wary of taking Ace with Miller (wing who will operate in the mid range some) and Lamelo (who is already very unserious). I really think Philly/charlotte could go VJ/Tre in some order. I'd be happy to take Ace for ourselves or as a hostage if there are offers we like depending on how things fall out.

I think Philly is stuck with Embiid, and I think they're probably stuck with Paul George. The cost to the Sixers to try to get off those contracts is prohibitively high. They've got their younger guards that they believe in, though they might want to bring one off the bench just so they have more size defensively. They can add a top-3 pick this year, so now they can have a young core developing behind Embiid/PG. I think they just draft their favorite player among the Ace/Tre/VJ tier and keep him to develop.

If the Jazz offered Lauri and 5 for PG and 3, I think the Sixers would take that deal and run for the exit, but the Jazz won't do it. I don't see the Jazz moving Lauri and taking Paul George back just to move up two spots.

 

[KqWIN]

I agree... I can see a lot of Herro there. I think he has more length so should be able to do more... but as noted his rebound and stock numbers ain't good.

I struggle to give much credit to Tre because he is like worst in class at doing the primary things height/length is supposed to do. I'm sure it helps him shoot over people and pass, but I really can't get behind the "he's a bigger X" when he plays a lot smaller than his size.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I think Philly is stuck with Embiid, and I think they're probably stuck with Paul George. The cost to the Sixers to try to get off those contracts is prohibitively high. They've got their younger guards that they believe in, though they might want to bring one off the bench just so they have more size defensively. They can add a top-3 pick this year, so now they can have a young core developing behind Embiid/PG. I think they just draft their favorite player among the Ace/Tre/VJ tier and keep him to develop.

If the Jazz offered Lauri and 5 for PG and 3, I think the Sixers would take that deal and run for the exit, but the Jazz won't do it. I don't see the Jazz moving Lauri and taking Paul George back just to move up two spots.

I think Lauri, #5 for PG, #3, the 2028 Clips pick they own is like the bottom of the deal zone. The Jazz shouldn't pay much to move up but that 28 clips pick has some real value imo.

 

[seattlejazzfan]

I struggle to give much credit to Tre because he is like worst in class at doing the primary things height/length is supposed to do. I'm sure it helps him shoot over people and pass, but I really can't get behind the "he's a bigger X" when he plays a lot smaller than his size.

i'd say his length gives him the potential to ultimately do those things you speak of.

guys, especially these one and dones are so far from finished products, it's hard to say that just because they didn't do it in college, doesn't mean they can't or won't in the league. they have so much development and learning ahead of them.

speaking of beal - in college he was incredible at rebounding, blocking shots, steals, etc - some of the primary things length helps with - but once he hit the league, he wasn't much of factor in those areas at all.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

I'm also just not a fan of dismissing "he doesn't go to the rim" because he did it twice in the same possession and then made an incredible pass the next possession. Be the equivalent of saying there are no concerns with shooting because a guy took two three, missed them, and then dunked all over a player the next possession.

The pace and space of the NBA is much more conducive to getting to the rim than the NCAA. I think Tre has the size and athleticism to be effective at getting to the rim, especially he doesn't have to create everything himself. Tre should at least be able to straight-line drive or cut, even if he's not shaking guys.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Locke took a goodly amount of time today to talk about Tre Johnson again. Bodes well for the Jazz thinking they can take him. I don't agree with the Beal comp. Beal was a combo guard at Fla. who was initially thought of as someone who could play point guard. Beal doesn't have Tre's size/length/elevation, or footspeed, or shooting off of movement. Beal is all change-of-pace off the dribble. If you want to back off Ray Allen or Devin Booker as a comp for Tre, you can look at Klay Thompson just due to the high, quick release and ability to shoot off of movement and relocations. A bigger downgrade would be someone like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.

It's interesting to me that Locke hasn't said anything about Ace Bailey in the past week. Maybe the assumption is that he's going #3 still.

That was not how Beal was thought of. People were calling him the next Ray Allen.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Will be interesting to see if Will Hardy has any more input after his extension.

Hardy doesn't seem to like Keyonte, Sensabaugh, or Cody due to the playstyle of the first two and Cody's uhhhh, everything... So I could see him arguing against Ace Bailey potentially.

But I don't know if Ainge or Smith care very much about which players he likes.

Keyonte has a huge opportunity to take a leap in his 3rd season, especially on the defensive end. If it doesn't happen, I could see the Jazz moving him. Some other team will likely value Keyonte's shot creation more than the Jazz.

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

Whitmore broke his leg twice in HS and has degenerative knees that will probably cause him to have to retire around 31 or 32 years old.

Didn’t know this.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

It's important to remember that we're comparing 2012 to 2025, so the scale on shooting is different. But on paper, absolutely closer to VJ. Beal was not a super usage player in college and he had great peripheral indicators. You could take that as the numbers don't matter, or you could say that some of the numbers would have indicated some change.

Anyways, the point I'm getting at is that players often play a lot different in the NBA and in different roles. It's not always the best to assume a play can/will play in the same he does in college.

Yeah, no. Much closer to Johnson than VJ. Not even close to VJ.

I wont say numbers dont matter, but numbers have context. For instance: Beal got a lot of rebounds because he played with two small starting guards, a stretch 4 (shoutout Jazzman Erik Murphy) and Patrick Young, a center who never rebounded well in his career. Reboudning has never been a strength for Beal in the NBA.

 

[KqWIN]

i'd say his length gives him the potential to ultimately do those things you speak of.

guys, especially these one and dones are so far from finished products, it's hard to say that just because they didn't do it in college, doesn't mean they can't or won't in the league. they have so much development and learning ahead of them.

speaking of beal - in college he was incredible at rebounding, blocking shots, steals, etc - some of the primary things length helps with - but once he hit the league, he wasn't much of factor in those areas at all.

Potential....ehhh. For me there's a whole lot more to defense than measurables. It's skill, habits, and talent among other things. It's not quite the same, but I feel like his defensive potential is akin to a very bad shooter's potential to shoot. I just don't think it happens very often. I'm not hopeful.

As far as Beal not doing those things in the NBA, I addressed that in another post. I think these indicators are all intertwined and have carryover effects to different areas of the game. For example, rebounding and steals mean more than just he ability to predict rebounding and steals.

 

[seattlejazzfan]

Potential....ehhh. For me there's a whole lot more to defense than measurables. It's skill, habits, and talent among other things. It's not quite the same, but I feel like his defensive potential is akin to a very bad shooter's potential to shoot. I just don't think it happens very often. I'm not hopeful.

As far as Beal not doing those things in the NBA, I addressed that in another post. I think these indicators are all intertwined and have carryover effects to different areas of the game. For example, rebounding and steals mean more than just he ability to predict rebounding and steals.

i think perhaps where we will have to agree to disagree in regard to Tre's defense. first, very few freshmen are great defenders and i'm not going to sit here and say Tre Johnson was a great defender even for a freshman. but i feel like he did care on that end, that he was a good on ball defender, he moved his feet, etc. iow, while he was nothing to write home about, i feel like he has a base to start from - the caring, the effort and the skill are there - he just needs to continue to be coached and developed. and the length certainly doesn't hurt.

 

[KqWIN]

Yeah, no. Much closer to Johnson than VJ. Not even close to VJ.

I wont say numbers dont matter, but numbers have context. For instance: Beal got a lot of rebounds because he played with two small starting guards, a stretch 4 (shoutout Jazzman Erik Murphy) and Patrick Young, a center who never rebounded well in his career. Reboudning has never been a strength for Beal in the NBA.

I mentioned that it's different, but I'd also say Beal's college resume is nothing close at all to Tre's. His role was completely different. It would be like saying Beal's NBA role and performance was like his college role and performance, not even close.

 

[KqWIN]

i think perhaps where we will have to agree to disagree in regard to Tre's defense. first, very few freshmen are great defenders and i'm not going to sit here and say Tre Johnson was a great defender even for a freshman. but i feel like he did care on that end, that he was a good on ball defender, he moved his feet, etc. iow, while he was nothing to write home about, i feel like he has a base to start from - the caring, the effort and the skill are there - he just needs to continue to be coached and developed. and the length certainly doesn't hurt.

I'm comparing him to his peers in this draft and other drafts. He's just straight up worse than the others in my mind. He's a step down from the guys I would already consider bad defensive prospects, and having good size/length doesn't really move the needle for me because it amounted to very little.

 

[Chargers Jazz Angels]

I didn’t know you were THT and Hood-Shafino fan

We need a face palm emoji

 

[KqWIN]

The pace and space of the NBA is much more conducive to getting to the rim than the NCAA. I think Tre has the size and athleticism to be effective at getting to the rim, especially he doesn't have to create everything himself. Tre should at least be able to straight-line drive or cut, even if he's not shaking guys.

The NBA is harder, it's just a straight up fact. I talked about this before, but if you really think it's easier to get more shots at the rim and FT line in the NBA, show me when it happens. It rarely ever does, and when it does happens it's usually because a guy was limited in his role.

 

[stitches]

With Ace you have to talk yourself into him being Ant (not his game but with the red flags) or like Tatum had a lot of that Mamba Mentality that had to be weeded out. Ant had some weird interviews... some flaws in his game... and played for an unserious team. Ant was a much better prospect but you are hoping some of this is just immaturity and the other stuff can be redirected. If they are actually coachable (like interviews I can see drawing some wild stuff out of an 18-19 yo) and a hard worker... that is will be what matters most.

I think the way its trending there is like a 30-50% chance its Ace that is available at 5. I can see a team trading up for him and jumping us (Wizards would be the first candidate)... if he landed at 5 I'd be fine making that bet or taking him and sliding back for someone else we believe in... if there is a nice premium.

I get what you mean about having to talk yourself into Ace... but I think that was mainly when talking about #2 or #3 pick... I have expressed my doubts in the past about whether he plays winning brand of basketball... but at 5... I think it would be a no brainer to just take that shot. The upside is way too high for us pass on. I think at the top you need to aim high. You want a franchise player and as much as I like Kon or as tantalizing as Fears is... I feel like Ace has the closest profile of physical and athletic traits married with skill to becoming a franchise player in due time. I think you would need something extraordinarily bad in his interviews or background for you to pass on him at 5.

 

[KqWIN]

The NBA players with a rim rate or FTr of 30% aren't the guys who had 20-25% in college. It's usually the guys who had 40-50% in college. Exceptions happen. Ace and Tre can absolutely be those exceptions. But I think there's just this assumption that this part of the game gets easier in the NBA, but it's not. The trend is that these rim pressure metrics go down.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I get what you mean about having to talk yourself into Ace... but I think that was mainly when talking about #2 or #3 pick... I have expressed my doubts in the past about whether he plays winning brand of basketball... but at 5... I think it would be a no brainer to just take that shot. The upside is way too high for us pass on. I think at the top you need to aim high. You want a franchise player and as much as I like Kon or as tantalizing as Fears is... I feel like Ace has the closest profile of physical and athletic traits married with skill to becoming a franchise player in due time. I think you would need something extraordinarily bad in his interviews or background for you to pass on him at 5.

The brain may be the hardest thing to fix... which is the biggest red flag on Ace. If he is a worker and coachable I think you can work around it.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

The NBA is harder, it's just a straight up fact. I talked about this before, but if you really think it's easier to get more shots at the rim and FT line in the NBA, show me when it happens. It rarely ever does, and when it does happens it's usually because a guy was limited in his role.

On the whole, college teams put a MUCH bigger emphasis on clogging up the interior. Defenders are slower, smaller and dumber, so it makes more sense to rely on a brainless wall of meat around the paint instead of NBA-style 1-on-1 matchups and lightning quick help rotations. Outside shooters are so much worse in college ball that conceding 3's now and then isn't such a huge problem.

Super athletic, rim-attacking perimeter players can absolutely have an easier time in the NBA.