Following Potential 2025 Draftees

[NUMBERICA]

Last one... maybe... prolly not. Brooklyn offers 8, 19, and a 2029 NYK pick for 5 because Ace is left and they want him BAD. In this scenario Kon is also available at 8.

Yes.

If I can get a 2028 Knicks pick unprotected I’m taking the hell out of that. Or something juicy like that (maybe a super swap, maybe in an odd year where we have multiple picks?).

I might also trade that if I’m Brooklyn. Ace has Him vibes and they dicked themselves out of the running bad this year.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

I have him in that group so its a little different for me. I'm sure fans would be pissed about moving back but if you believe in your guy and that he is there later then I think there could be some real value for a team willing to trade out of what is viewed as tier 3.

And I don't think that's crazy.

I personally have Kas higher than most. For me though, I recognize that Kas probably isn't as good of a prospect as Tre/Ace/VJ, but I just like him a lot.

 

[KqWIN]

49 NCAA prospects drafted from 2012-2021 in the 3-8 Range:

I classified them into 3 categories:

Hit - Borderline All Star or better, Jamal Murray is the worst "hit"

Starter - Established themselves as a starter level player. Deandre Hunger is the worst "starter"

Bust - Everything worse


15 Hits
15 Starters
19 Busts

Highest Hit:Bust ratio is PG
Highest Bust:Hit ratio is C/Big

I made an arbitrary line of greater than 25% usage or not. Greater than >25% usage is slightly better than players <25%, but it is essentially the same.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I just don’t see having Kon in the same tier. Not as much upside.

That's fine... in this exercise it would be one team trading with a GM that feels the tier is a little wider than what might be consensus. Tre I think has higher upside but its not a lot more... Ace has the highest upside by how that is traditionally measured but might be 10x less likely to hit his ceiling than the others. VJ I just can't figure out. Like jumping high is cool and running fast is cool... but no wiggle. I think there are a lot of scenarios where he looks like Garry Harris pre-injury or Donte DiVincenzo. Vic had change of speed, handle, wiggle.... maybe VJ gets there.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Yes.

If I can get a 2028 Knicks pick unprotected I’m taking the hell out of that. Or something juicy like that (maybe a super swap, maybe in an odd year where we have multiple picks?).

I might also trade that if I’m Brooklyn. Ace has Him vibes and they dicked themselves out of the running bad this year.

Yeah Brooklyn just has like no good young players and I wonder if they are like "we can't sell Kon or Khaman to the fans". They own the odd years of Knicks picks. I think something like 8, 19, NYK pick in 2029 is in the right window.

I know we have a lot of picks... I get it. Adding one extra prospect this year won't kill us and there may be trade up opportunities in the 10-16 range with the picks or you could use one to go get a second draft guy like Ivey, Mathurin, my guy from last year Devin Carter (who was hurt but also was rough when with the varsity squad).

 

[Basketball Novice]

He’s not saying he can’t be as effective. Kon has some troubling off the dribble and isolation numbers. They are bad bad.

Where as someone like Tre has super impressive numbers in that department.

hmmmm, Kon does have some deficiencies in those areas. I don't know how bad but if the numbers are that bad then there might be cause to worry. I can see that.

But we are talking about tiers of players, implying you won't consider those players of a lower tier until everyone from the current tier is taken.

Kon has some warts but so do Ace/VJ/Tre. Is it a matter of solvable warts vs unsolvable warts? Or is it just athleticism puts you in a higher tier no matter what? I am unclear how everyone else defines tiers. Is it not effectiveness and quality that defines tiers? Or perhaps its projecting the effectiveness and quality into the NBA that defines tiers.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

49 NCAA prospects drafted from 2012-2021 in the 3-8 Range:

I classified them into 3 categories:

Hit - Borderline All Star or better, Jamal Murray is the worst "hit"

Starter - Established themselves as a starter level player. Deandre Hunger is the worst "starter"

Bust - Everything worse


15 Hits
15 Starters
19 Busts

Highest Hit:Bust ratio is PG
Highest Bust:Hit ratio is C/Big

I made an arbitrary line of greater than 25% usage or not. Greater than >25% usage is slightly better than players <25%, but it is essentially the same.

Honestly better than I thought it would be. Middle of the lotto is nasty sometimes... honestly I think part of the reason is teams reach for upside based on where they are drafting.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

hmmmm, Kon does have some deficiencies in those areas. I don't know how bad but if the numbers are that bad then there might be cause to worry. I can see that.

But we are talking about tiers of players, implying you won't consider those players of a lower tier until everyone from the current tier is taken.

Kon has some warts but so do Ace/VJ/Tre. Is it a matter of solvable warts vs unsolvable warts? Or is it just athleticism puts you in a higher tier no matter what? I am unclear how everyone else defines tiers. Is it not effectiveness and quality that defines tiers? Or perhaps its projecting the effectiveness and quality into the NBA that defines tiers.

He didn't shoot well off the dribble. In HS and EYBL he did more with the ball in his hands. He will need to figure out the off the dribble shooting. Guy has a laser so I don't think it will be an issue.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

hmmmm, Kon does have some deficiencies in those areas. I don't know how bad but if the numbers are that bad then there might be cause to worry. I can see that.

But we are talking about tiers of players, implying you won't consider those players of a lower tier until everyone from the current tier is taken.

Kon has some warts but so do Ace/VJ/Tre. Is it a matter of solvable warts vs unsolvable warts? Or is it just athleticism puts you in a higher tier no matter what? I am unclear how everyone else defines tiers. Is it not effectiveness and quality that defines tiers? Or perhaps its projecting the effectiveness and quality into the NBA that defines tiers.

I think about tiers differently every year, so either I'm evolving, or there's no right way to think about it, lol.

The reason I have Ace/VJ/Tre in a higher tier is:
- Ace is capable of making shots that you only see from star players and the things he needs to work on should/could improve with coaching/maturity.
- Tre had the 2nd/3rd best production in the class for a Freshman. He would be in Harper's tier if he was a little more well rounded.
- VJ had similar production to the lower tier, but his athleticism/defensive play making puts him the higher tier.
All 3 have the size and athleticism to feel confident that they will fit in the NBA

I think it's clear those are the 3-5 guys, and then I think it's perfectly fine if you have personal preferences for anyone else. Like I said, I have Kas in that tier, not because his production/etc. would justify it, but because I like him and his player archetype better than Ace/Tre for example. If you like the stuff that Kon brings more than the others then I don't see a problem with having him in the same tier. This is all subjective.

 

[Elizah Huge]

That's fine... in this exercise it would be one team trading with a GM that feels the tier is a little wider than what might be consensus. Tre I think has higher upside but its not a lot more... Ace has the highest upside by how that is traditionally measured but might be 10x less likely to hit his ceiling than the others. VJ I just can't figure out. Like jumping high is cool and running fast is cool... but no wiggle. I think there are a lot of scenarios where he looks like Garry Harris pre-injury or Donte DiVincenzo. Vic had change of speed, handle, wiggle.... maybe VJ gets there.

Doing a deep dive into VJ tonight and will report back.
Couple of things I’ve noticed doing these on Tre and Kon…

Tre has insane movement shooting skills and his off the dribble stuff is awesome. Especially for a high usage guard his age. It is levels above other players in the class. He can really shoot it from anywhere on the court.

The biggest thing he can improve upon offensively is getting to the rim more. Compared to his other offensive numbers his rim finishing % and rate aren’t up to par.

Kon’s rim finishing is very good for someone who’s constantly talked about as unathletic. His finishing off of two-feet is elite. His on/off numbers are astonishing. Duke was +32.4 with him on vs off.

The biggest thing he can improve upon is his off the dribble shooting and isolation scoring. His numbers are very bad and his frequency doing so wasn’t good either. Without developing that it’s hard to see him being able to scale up.

Both guys are underrated passers and playmakers. Both with a 15.7 AST% and 16.5 AST%. Both also aren’t as bad defensively as you’d think and have some surprisingly good defensive numbers as far as opponents FG% goes.

 

[Elizah Huge]

He didn't shoot well off the dribble. In HS and EYBL he did more with the ball in his hands. He will need to figure out the off the dribble shooting. Guy has a laser so I don't think it will be an issue.

I don’t know if it’s a matter of shooting all that much. Does he struggle with separation? The total numbers were extremely low.

 

[KqWIN]

I do like seeing the different breakdowns in shooting, but it does make a highly variable number even more highly variable. I'd like to see film on what kinds of shots Kon was shooting high school. Don't think he has much of a bag on behind the arc, but he should be good to drive and use his thickness to penetrate the D.

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

Just found out we have 4 picks, why didn’t I know this before now?

 

[SoberasHotRod]

Just found out we have 4 picks, why didn’t I know this before now?

comprehension skills, inattentiveness, slow processing speed...

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

comprehension skills, inattentiveness, slow processing speed...

Aka old af

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I don’t know if it’s a matter of shooting all that much. Does he struggle with separation? The total numbers were extremely low.

He did what the team wanted. Proctor and Flagg were on ball a lot. I think if his team needed it he could be on ball more. That’s how he came up. Neither guy gets lots of separation.

I just get the feeling people are only hunting for an offensive engine so that’s their focus. Like how much of your offense do you want in iso? I think too much can be made from it.

Ace I go back and forth with… can you be an engine if you aren’t a high level game processor? I think his upside might be second option but two way wing.

You can create advantages in a lot of ways. I have little doubt Kon can do that through actions either on ball or off ball or as the defense rotates to close him off.

Tre I like… I just think there are guys that struggle when they get to the league and can’t do whatever they want.

I just think if nba teams are like draft twitter and sleep on Kon… I’d be willing to make that bet if it came with a premium. Some think we need a big swing with the pick… we need a hit. Taylor not playing last year and playing sparingly the year before and then Cody being a complete whiff (most likely) might have me thinking a little less about making the biggest bet possible.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

He did what the team wanted. Proctor and Flagg were on ball a lot. I think if his team needed it he could be on ball more. That’s how he came up. Neither guy gets lots of separation.

I just get the feeling people are only hunting for an offensive engine so that’s their focus. Like how much of your offense do you want in iso? I think too much can be made from it.

Ace I go back and forth with… can you be an engine if you aren’t a high level game processor? I think his upside might be second option but two way wing.

You can create advantages in a lot of ways. I have little doubt Kon can do that through actions either on ball or off ball or as the defense rotates to close him off.

Tre I like… I just think there are guys that struggle when they get to the league and can’t do whatever they want.

I just think if nba teams are like draft twitter and sleep on Kon… I’d be willing to make that bet if it came with a premium. Some think we need a big swing with the pick… we need a hit. Taylor not playing last year and playing sparingly the year before and then Cody being a complete whiff (most likely) might have me thinking a little less about making the biggest bet possible.

Not coming out of this draft with a starting level NBA player would set us back. I'm not against drafting for high floor.

I think VJ might have the highest chance at being a starter level player or better with our pick.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Not coming out of this draft with a starting level NBA player would set us back. I'm not against drafting for high floor.

I think VJ might have the highest chance at being a starter level player or better with our pick.

I think he has the best shot being gone by 5. If Sixers keep it I think he’s the pick. I think Charlotte is the best player team for for him. I think you could be right tho.

 

[Basketball Novice]

I think about tiers differently every year, so either I'm evolving, or there's no right way to think about it, lol.

The reason I have Ace/VJ/Tre in a higher tier is:
- Ace is capable of making shots that you only see from star players and the things he needs to work on should/could improve with coaching/maturity.
- Tre had the 2nd/3rd best production in the class for a Freshman. He would be in Harper's tier if he was a little more well rounded.
- VJ had similar production to the lower tier, but his athleticism/defensive play making puts him the higher tier.
All 3 have the size and athleticism to feel confident that they will fit in the NBA

I think it's clear those are the 3-5 guys, and then I think it's perfectly fine if you have personal preferences for anyone else. Like I said, I have Kas in that tier, not because his production/etc. would justify it, but because I like him and his player archetype better than Ace/Tre for example. If you like the stuff that Kon brings more than the others then I don't see a problem with having him in the same tier. This is all subjective.

Thats all fair. I just wanted to bring up the question to challenge the baseline that Ace/Tre/VJ is the 2nd tier and superior prospects to the other ones, so to speak. I don't know if dividing the big board into tiers is the proper way to do this whole thing. It seems unnecessary.

It all circles back to the suggested trade: 5 for 6 + 18. Dropping 1 spot and getting another mid first rounder seems like crazy good value to me. But everyone seems adamant about rejecting it based on this concept of tiers and that Ace/VJ/Tre are so much better as prospects than those who would remain. Are they really so much greater? Thats the question I wanted to pose to everyone.

 

[Elizah Huge]

He did what the team wanted. Proctor and Flagg were on ball a lot. I think if his team needed it he could be on ball more. That’s how he came up. Neither guy gets lots of separation.

I just get the feeling people are only hunting for an offensive engine so that’s their focus. Like how much of your offense do you want in iso? I think too much can be made from it.

Ace I go back and forth with… can you be an engine if you aren’t a high level game processor? I think his upside might be second option but two way wing.

You can create advantages in a lot of ways. I have little doubt Kon can do that through actions either on ball or off ball or as the defense rotates to close him off.

Tre I like… I just think there are guys that struggle when they get to the league and can’t do whatever they want.

I just think if nba teams are like draft twitter and sleep on Kon… I’d be willing to make that bet if it came with a premium. Some think we need a big swing with the pick… we need a hit. Taylor not playing last year and playing sparingly the year before and then Cody being a complete whiff (most likely) might have me thinking a little less about making the biggest bet possible.

I am guilty of wanting to try to draft an offensive engine. I also don’t think we need to go for a safer pick just because we have Taylor and Cody. This is the draft to swing big with the spot we are in. What is a single or a double really going to do for us?