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GSW Draft Pick Watch

BluesRocker said:
As of 2008, with 30 NBA teams, 16 qualify for the playoffs and the remaining 14 teams are entered in the draft lottery. These 14 teams are ranked in reverse order of their regular season record and are assigned the following number of chances

1. 250 combinations, 25.0% chance of receiving the #1 pick
2. 199 combinations, 19.9% chance
3. 156 combinations, 15.6% chance
4. 119 combinations, 11.9% chance
5. 88 combinations, 8.8% chance
6. 63 combinations, 6.3% chance
7. 43 combinations, 4.3% chance
8. 28 combinations, 2.8% chance
9. 17 combinations, 1.7% chance
10. 11 combinations, 1.1% chance
11. 8 combinations, 0.8% chance
12. 7 combinations, 0.7% chance
13. 6 combinations, 0.6% chance
14. 5 combinations, 0.5% chance

Good find.

So I was right, right?

Those are the odds just to jump to first too I think.

So its hitting at a 8.3% clip, and its only suggested that for the first pick it should only be between 2.8-1.7 for the 8th and 9th spot.

Somebody correct me if I am wrong.
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well you're just looking at the top pick. if you add up the chances of all 7 teams getting any of the three picks. it's about 29%, but it has only "hit" 8.3% of the times since 2000. so it actually happens less often than the statistical likelihood says it should.

(or more accurately, this illustrates the difference between the likelihood of something occuring a single time versus the percentage of the time something happens. you can flip a coin 20 times and get heads on 17 of them, but the chances of the next one being heads are still precisely 50/50. nobody knows this more than the guy who sees a roulette table with 8 straight reds, rushes over to bet big on black, and loses his rent money.)
 
That win took the air out of the Golden State fans - kind of like how Bimbo Coles took the air out of PJ Carlesimo!!!
 
Golden state.............23-41
New Jersey...............22-42
Cleveland.................21-42
Detroit.....................24-40
Toronto....................22-42
Sacramento...............21-43

Golden State
Tue, Apr 24 vs New Orleans
Thu, Apr 26 vs San Antonio

Toronto
Mon, Apr 23 @Milwaukee 8:00 PM
Thu, Apr 26 vsNew Jersey 8:00 PM

Detroit
Mon, Apr 23 @Indiana 7:00 PM
Thu, Apr 26 vsPhiladelphia 8:00 PM

Cleveland
Mon, Apr 23 @ Memphis 8:00 PM
Wed, Apr 25 vs Washington 7:00 PM
Thu, Apr26 @ Chicago 8:00 PM

New Jersey
Mon, Apr 23 vsPhiladelphia 7:30 PM
Thu, Apr 26 @Toronto 8:00 PM

Sacramento
Tue, Apr 24 @Oklahoma City 8:00 PM
Thu, Apr 26 vsLos Angeles 10:30 PM

This is working out perfectly. It doesn't get any better gettin the 8th, and best spot for this pick
 
I'm confused. Is there any scenario where a coin flip could determine the pre-ping pong ball slot? How is it that there is a situation where there is no auto-tiebreaker?
 
PKM said:
I'm confused. Is there any scenario where a coin flip could determine the pre-ping pong ball slot? How is it that there is a situation where there is no auto-tiebreaker?
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i was one fairly long paragraph into my response before i realized who was asking... and that the question was most likely sarcastic.
 
theNBAnerd said:
i was one fairly long paragraph into my response before i realized who was asking... and that the question was most likely sarcastic.
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I truly apologize. It was a sincere question. I'm not an NBA nerd, but a cbb nerd. Don't want to ask you to type it all out again, but I am curious.
 
here, this time i'll just paste from the wiki page about the draft lottery:

In the event that teams finish with the same record, each tied team receives the average of the total number of combinations for the positions that they occupy. In 2007, the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Portland Trail Blazers tied for the sixth worst record. The average of the 6th and 7th positions in the lottery was taken, resulting in each team getting 53 combinations (the average of 63 and 43). Should the average number not be an integer, a coin flip is then used to determine which team or teams receive the extra combination(s). The result of the coin flip is also used to determine who receives the earlier pick in the event that neither of the tied teams wins one of the first three picks via the lottery.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery
 
PKM said:
I'm confused. Is there any scenario where a coin flip could determine the pre-ping pong ball slot? How is it that there is a situation where there is no auto-tiebreaker?
Click to expand...

If there is a tie for the 7th/8th pick then there will be a coin toss to determine who will get one more combo (out of 1000) to win the lottery - thus putting that team in the 7th slot.

Looking at the chart above, it looks like the 7th pick has 43 combos to win it, and the 8th has 28. So in the event that there's a tie, they'll take the average of the two numbers (71), which would be 35.5. They'd flip a coin and the winner would have 36 combos that could win the lottery (slotting them in the 7th pick), while the loser would have 35 combos (slotting them in the 8th pick). The "slotting" of the picks is considering that neither team wins the lottery.
 
Thanks for those answer, Nerd and margo.

So how/when does the tiebreaker come into play? So there's a 7/8 tie. I get the ping pong scenario (now they you've explained it), but let's say the ping pong bounces to no net change. In that scenario, who gets the 7 and who gets the 8. I know I'm waaay behind on this, so my apologies again.
 
the ping pong can't bounce "to no net change" because of the way the system is set up. there are four ping pong balls numbered 1 through 14, which results in 1,001 possible 4-number combinations. one of those 1,001 is unassigned (and if it comes up, they redraw), and the other 1,000 are assigned to the 14 lottery teams in the prescribed amount.

in the case of a 7/8 tie, 36 of those 1000 combos are assigned to whomever wins the coin toss (7th). 35 are assigned to whomever lost the coin toss (8th). if the top 3 spots are claimed by teams 1 through 6 (who own 875 of the 1000 combinations) then the coin toss winner picks 7th and the coin toss loser picks 8th. if a team 7 through 14 (125 total combinations) wins a top 3 pick then obviously it changes the order and bumps everybody back.
 
So tiebreakers never come into play as it relates to records? This is all fascinating to me, thanks and rep'd.

EDIT: Let me clarify. A tied record is determined by coin flip and not by tiebreaker, right? I thought I had read tons of posts stating so and so owned the tiebreaker ....
 
PKM said:
So tiebreakers never come into play as it relates to records? This is all fascinating to me, thanks and rep'd.

EDIT: Let me clarify. A tied record is determined by coin flip and not by tiebreaker, right? I thought I had read tons of posts stating so and so owned the tiebreaker ....
Click to expand...

for lottery/draft purposes, yes. the only time the tiebreaker process is used is in determining playoff seeding.
 
PKM said:
So tiebreakers never come into play as it relates to records? This is all fascinating to me, thanks and rep'd.

EDIT: Let me clarify. A tied record is determined by coin flip and not by tiebreaker, right? I thought I had read tons of posts stating so and so owned the tiebreaker ....
Click to expand...

If the Jazz had won the coin flip in 2010 over the Clippers from that NY pick, I always wondered if KOC would have taken Aminu over Hayward.
 
Interesting tidbit.

"Tony Jones ‏ @TonyAggieville
@gswscribe KOC told us that GSW would have to double their payment to get the pick back...jazz FO def not happy that GS went public"
 
trigg3r said:
Interesting tidbit.

"Tony Jones ‏ @TonyAggieville
@gswscribe KOC told us that GSW would have to double their payment to get the pick back...jazz FO def not happy that GS went public"
Click to expand...

double it from what? that makes it sound like there was some sort of preliminary understanding as to what the jazz would want in return. you can't double a price if a price wasn't already set.
 
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