2019 Offseason & Free Agents

[latin jazz]

Bear with me on this one. It’s been argued for the last few weeks that the Jazz should keep their cap space for 2019 free agency. Few things needs to happen in 2018:

• Draft well in 2018
• Make a deep run in the playoffs in 2018-2019 in order to recruit top players, showing them they might be the missing piece
• Stay relevant by signing solid vets on team-friendly deals, just like in 2017. Or acquire them via trade, preferably expiring that year (like Mirotic)

With that in mind, 2019 it’s the year where the contender window could open for the Jazz for some of these reasons:

• Two All Stars in their primes (Rudy + DM)
• A couple of solid veterans on the team (Ingles + whoever stays or signed in 2018). Some good, young players (Exum, O’Neale, maybe Bradley, 2018 draft pick)
• Most teams still capped out from the crazy contracts signed in 2015, 2016
• GSW and other contending teams challenged to keep their core due to luxury tax
• Jazz becoming one of the few teams with ample cap space

Assumptions: Exum stays at 10M. We keep Neto or sign someone else on a cheap deal. We acquire a vet or someone who fits long term (2018 FA or maybe during this trade deadline using JJ, Burks, Hood or Favors contract). All in all, we could have about 30M in cap space or even 40M if we don't bring a contract that goes over 2019:

Salaries 2019-2020​

Rudy Gobert 25,008,427
Joe Ingles 11,954,546
Donovan Mitchell 3,635,760
Tony Bradley 1,962,360
Royce O'Neale 1,618,520
Dante Exum 10,000,000
Raul Neto (or other) 2,500,000
Rookie 2018 (10th pick) 3,438,000
Rookie #2 (2nd round) 1,000,000
Rookie 2019 (late 20s) 2,000,000
Vet 11,000,000
Salaries total 72,117,613
Cap 102,000,000
Cap space 27,882,387 ​

With all the talk of saving our cap space, what do you think are the players we are targeting?. Who could be a good fit culturally, need and age-wise? My list:

Top tier:
Klay Thompson (wet dream)
Jimmy Butler (likely to re-sign with the Wolves)
Kawhi Leonard (opting out but likely staying with Spurs)
Kevin Love: might start declining
Kemba Walker
Devin Booker, KAT, KP (RFAs, not happening)
Khris Middelton: he is declining his 13M option so he could be obtained if the Bucks resign Jabari or Bledsoe to big deals. He would be an excellent fit.

Second tier:
Goran Dragic: would be a solid vet, declining (12-14M year?)
Nikola Mirotic: good fit as previously discussed in a 60-page thread. If obtained via trade, we could go over the cap with his bird rights
Kelly Oubre (RFA but could be acquired given the Wizards cap situation)
Marc Gasol: opting out of 25M? Maybe. Is he willing to play on a discount for a contender? having a reduced role? He will be old but his game is not based on athleticism. One of my favorite players but probably not the best fit.

Third tier (bench players)
Terry Rozier: looks solid
Frank Kaminsky (RFA but who knows what’s gonna happen in Charlotte)
Al-Farouq Aminu: shooting much better from 3
Jeremy Lamb: shows signs of improvement
Larry Nance Jr (meh)
etc

So what do you think guys? Who are your candidates? In my opinion Middleton would an excellent candidate but getting him depends on what the Bucks do during this trade deadline/offseason with Jabari. We can also throw a fast ball at the Bucks and offer Jabari a big contract, only for the Bucks to match and then steal Middleton the next offseason. If we don’t obtain Mirotic now, I can see it happening in 2019. Oubre would be a good option too and maybe is a better investment than Middleton (let's see how Kelly develops).

Exciting to be a Jazz fan uh?

 

[NAOS]

this thread already exists.

 

[latin jazz]

this thread already exists.

I did a quick search and didn't see it. But now that you mentioned yeah, it was created a couple of months ago. It wasn't my intention to duplicate it

Last post in that thread was almost 50 days ago so maybe it's time to revive it given the current trade chatter and direction of the team. Mods please feel free to merge both

 

[NUMBERICA]

I have to say that I would have a really hard time devoting 10 million to Exum if it really doesn't have to be done.

I understand the pros. I'm just not sure I agree with them. But it probably makes more sense than planning on landing a free agent.

Being under the cap, that's $10 million in actual cap, which is more than the MLE, which probably grabs you a Derrick Favors-quality player. Maybe Mirotic if/when he comes back to earth.

IDK.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Worth noting that George Hill and Mirotic have contracts that expire then, also. In other words, those could be guys that help make some noise heading into 2019 free agency. Maybe even keep them, depending on price/how things shake out.

 

[latin jazz]

Worth noting that George Hill and Mirotic have contracts that expire then, also. In other words, those could be guys that help make some noise heading into 2019 free agency. Maybe even keep them, depending on price/how things shake out.

I can imagine the Jazz signing Mirotic then but probably one of the reasons they want to trade for him now is that his bird rights would allow them to go over the cap, and thus have cap space to sign a max player.

I don't think Hill is going to happen. That ship seems to have sailed

 

[LoPo]

Yeah, I dont think Hill is going to be an option in 2 years.

Sent from my VS995 using JazzFanz mobile app

 

[MDAV28]

I definitely think 2019 is the target for the Jazz as well. I think Klay while not likely but could be possible. Warriors can only give that designated extension to two of the three (Steph, Klay, Draymond). I know he has stated that he may take less money but if we are talking 10s of millions he may think differently.

With that being said, draft or trade is probably still Jazz best bet to acquire star talent so it's all about obtaining draft capital at this point I think.

 

[latin jazz]

I definitely think 2019 is the target for the Jazz as well. I think Klay while not likely but could be possible. Warriors can only give that designated extension to two of the three (Steph, Klay, Draymond). I know he has stated that he may take less money but if we are talking 10s of millions he may think differently.

With that being said, draft or trade is probably still Jazz best bet to acquire star talent so it's all about obtaining draft capital at this point I think.

Not to mention KD who will become an UFA in 2019. At that point the Warriors will be in luxury tax for 4 years in a row (hitting a heavy repeater tax). KD might be willing to play for less than the max to keep the core intact but I'm not sure Klay will. Klay will be looking at an offer of 28-30M per year, 10M more than what he is making now (and maybe 5M more of what GSW would like to pay). So yeah, one team with cap space could be able to pry Klay away

 

[infection]

I’m pretty sure DL has other plans. He spent some time in the Spurs organization and believes he found his Duncan in Bradley. He has a fondness for Argentines that played in Italy so he’s already eyeballing his Ginobili.

 

[Game6Conley]

liked because of Al Farouq Aminu!!!

 

[Jack Strop]

I can imagine the Jazz signing Mirotic then but probably one of the reasons they want to trade for him now is that his bird rights would allow them to go over the cap, and thus have cap space to sign a max player.

I don't think Hill is going to happen. That ship seems to have sailed

To sign a player you have to be under the cap for that amount. And that includes all cap holds. So whatever Mirotic's cap hold is, that counts against cap space. Now the trick is, you sign players up to your cap and THEN re-sign your bird right's player. For example, this summer Dante will have a cap hold of $15M and Hood will have a cap hold of $7M. So if the Jazz were to retain both, they'd want to re-sign Dante as soon as possible (because he'll likely get less than $15M) and then sign Hood after any other FA's.

They did the same with Ingles, btw. Delaying his paperwork allowed Lindsey to use cap space for two of: Udoh, Sefolosha and Jerebko. Jazz then exceeded the cap to re-sign Ingles and used part of the MLE on the remaining one of the aforementioned trio.

There are a ton of teams with contracts expiring in 2019. There will be no shortage of teams competing - and overpaying - for free agents. "Not Utah" is a very popular destination for the top and next-tier free agents. It's just stupid or naive to think Utah has a shot at attracting players like Klay or Middleton. Jazz need to acquire players via trade and the draft. It's pretty much a miracle KOC was able to snag Boozer. Memo was a huge risk and a perfect storm. It's pretty much the exact thing that happened to Utah with Wes Matthews: sign an underutilized player to an offer sheet that would force a team into the luxury tax to keep him.

CA and CO have already enacted laws to attract Klay, as have several other states, Utah not included.

 

[latin jazz]

To sign a player you have to be under the cap for that amount. And that includes all cap holds. So whatever Mirotic's cap hold is, that counts against cap space. Now the trick is, you sign players up to your cap and THEN re-sign your bird right's player. For example, this summer Dante will have a cap hold of $15M and Hood will have a cap hold of $7M. So if the Jazz were to retain both, they'd want to re-sign Dante as soon as possible (because he'll likely get less than $15M) and then sign Hood after any other FA's.

They did the same with Ingles, btw. Delaying his paperwork allowed Lindsey to use cap space for two of: Udoh, Sefolosha and Jerebko. Jazz then exceeded the cap to re-sign Ingles and used part of the MLE on the remaining one of the aforementioned trio.

Yes, thanks. I think the Spurs did the same with Leonard a couple of years ago, resigning him just after acquiring other FAs. I can see the Jazz doing it with players that expire in 2019 (e.g. like Mirotic if acquired now).

There are a ton of teams with contracts expiring in 2019. There will be no shortage of teams competing - and overpaying - for free agents.

Can you please name those teams? I was doing the exercise and actually realized that many teams that at first sight appear to be under the cap in 2019 will have to resign key players or extend their rookies in 2018. I began working on spreadsheets for those teams but ran out of time. Too many assumptions too. It might be worth doing the simulation after the deadline.

It's just stupid or naive to think Utah has a shot at attracting players like Klay or Middleton. Jazz need to acquire players via trade and the draft.

Klay? it's a wet dream as I pointed out. Stupid for thinking Middleton it's a viable option?. I strongly disagree with that. It's Khris Middleton!, not Lebron James or KD. Although not the first choice for FA, I believe the Jazz has improved its position as a destination for FA, especially if DM and Rudy continue to shine and players aspire to play for Snyder and a well-run organization. Not everyone wants to play in a big market under bright lights (remember how DWill preferred the quiet SLC over Brooklyn?). Those players do exist (e.g. Lillard or Porter who was interested in joining the Jazz last summer). Agree that trade/draft should be our main focus but there will be a real opportunity to snatch a RFA or even a marquee free agent in the summer of 2019 with several teams over the cap. If managed properly the cap gives us another avenue to improve.

 

[Jack Strop]

Can you please name those teams? I was doing the exercise and actually realized that many teams that at first sight appear to be under the cap in 2019 will have to resign key players or extend their rookies in 2018. I began working on spreadsheets for those teams but ran out of time. Too many assumptions too. It might be worth doing the simulation after the deadline.

Just look at Hoops Hype for committed salaries for '19/'20. Yes, teams like GS, Boston, OKC, Houston, Toronto and likely Milwaukee (and whoever gets Lebron) will be out of the market...they've got their own stars to re-sign.

But just old vet turnover means a ton of teams besides Utah will have cap space. So it's a huge risk to count on getting Middleton or Klay when you're bidding against 15-20 other possible suitors. Sorry, I just see the "not-Utah" factor as being too strong. I don't remember - EVER - one "marquee" free agent having Utah as a desired spot or as one of his trade destinations. Boozer is the only one that comes to mind, although at the time he wasn't a marquee free agent and Utah, based on his stats to date, significantly overpaid. Fortunately, he played up to his contract (I guess).

What kind of FA would Utah attract, IMO? Solid player, underutilized. Utah significantly overpays to outbid all other teams and hopes that player can develop into a stud.

 

[Jack Strop]

The danger is Utah targets their salaries at ~$70M, which means doing virtually nothing next season beyond signing players to 1 year contracts and again hoping to compete for the 7th/8th seed. Then they miss out on a top FA and again have to reset to lowered expectations.

Now you've wasted another couple of years of Rudy. If I were Gobert, I'd accuse Utah of being cheap and take my talents elsewhere as soon as I become an UFA. Instead, why not go out and use expirings to get Mirotic and a wing to replace Hood? Then you still have the MLE to attract a couple of great vets who want to contend for a title and play with Gobert and Mitchell.

My bold prediction is that DL and QS remain overly committed to Rubio and Ingles, and to a lesser extent, O'Neale. DL wants to be seen as a genius for discovering Royce. Bringing in a wing would cut playing time for those three, either directly or by having DM move to PG to give a wing more time. And it costs Utah more money. DL is cheap, very cheap. And he won't give up a 1st for Mirotic. So prepare for a year of Thabo and Jerebko at the 4. Or a tearful press conference when Derrick is re-signed for $15M and they talk about the Jazz "family."

 

[latin jazz]

Just look at Hoops Hype for committed salaries for '19/'20. Yes, teams like GS, Boston and Toronto and likely Milwaukee will be out of the market...they've got their own stars to re-sign.

But just old vet turnover means a ton of teams besides Utah will have cap space. So it's a huge risk to count on getting Middleton or Klay when you're bidding against 15-20 other possible suitors. Sorry, I just see the "not-Utah" factor as being too strong. I don't remember - EVER - one "marquee" free agent having Utah as a desired spot or as one of his trade destinations. Boozer is the only one that comes to mind, although at the time he wasn't a marquee free agent and Utah, based on his stats to date, significantly overpaid. Fortunately, he played up to his contract (I guess).

What kind of FA would Utah attract, IMO? Solid player, underutilized. Utah significantly overpays to outbid all other teams and hopes that player can develop into a stud.

I was using Hoopshype but then noticed a lot of mistakes and missing information in their database. So don't rely 100% on it for projections. For instance, they haven't included Embiid's extension in Philly's salary page. Others sites are more accurate but it requires some work to consolidate everything and then make some projections. I don't think 15-20 teams will have space for a max or near max player. It will be probably be less than 10. We should do the math with some strong assumptions.

No need to be sorry. I'm just a bit more optimistic about our ability to attract top talent in the future. I'm not naive. I don't imagine super stars lining up to play here. But very good players may consider playing here if the money/role is right. The past might not be a good indication of what will happen in the future too. For amazing as he was, maybe playing for hard-nosed Sloan was not for everybody, particularly spoiled stars. Snyder is highly respected around the league and it seems players are intrigued by his reputation for developing players. Also, the Jazz have invested in creating an international culture/locker room. That could also attract a particular type of players, especially as the league becomes more international.

 

[Jack Strop]

I was using Hoopshype but then noticed a lot of mistakes and missing information in their database. So don't rely 100% on it for projections. For instance, they haven't included Embiid's extension in Philly's salary page. Others sites are more accurate but it requires some work to consolidate everything and then make some projections. I don't think 15-20 teams will have space for a max or near max player. It will be probably be less than 10. We should do the math with some strong assumptions.

Here's a list. Some are unlikely, though. So 15-20 was an exaggeration, but I'd say more than 10. And if FA's really want to land somewhere (like Hayward to Boston), teams make trades to clear cap space.

1. Cleveland (depends on Lebron's decision, but with this season's turmoil, I think he's Laker bound).
2. OKC: Anthony's contract will be up. So consider him among the FA's OKC could go after. I'm also assuming George will team up with LBJ in LAL. Westbrook is also a FA, but re-sign him and OKC still could have another max slot. Consider this a strong maybe,
3. LA Clippers: assumes Jordan isn't re-signed.
4. Milwaukee: depends on what they decide to do with Jabari. Let's call this unlikely.
5. Charlotte: if Kemba is traded for picks and 1-2 yr contracts
6. Brooklyn: Di'Angelo and Hollis-Jefferson will be cap holds. Like NY, delay giving new deals until signing a top FA.
7. SA: probably not quite a max slot, but could reset the team by letting go of Green, Gay, Parker, Manu.
8. Denver: depends on what stupid trade they do with Utah. JK. They'll have tons of cap space, especially if they decline the $30M option on Millsap.
9. New York: Renounce Kanter and delay re-signing Porzingis until signing another FA.
10. LA Lakers: unless, as expected, they get LBJ, PG or any other combo of top FA's this summer.
11. Philadelphia - even adding in Embiid's extension
12. Orlando - also including a new contract for Gordon
13. Indiana - choice may be to re-sign several of their players or go after 1-2 bigger names. But they have enough expirings to be considered players.
14. Detroit - let's call this unlikely because salaries don't include Tobias. But they could move Jackson.
15-17: Phoenix, Dallas, Sacramento
18: Utah.

Obviously, trades will factor into the final total.

 

[Jack Strop]

^^
So I still maintain my assumption about trading for players now. The key point is that teams under the cap are really hurt. Once they sign FA's up to the cap, they can only use their exceptions and exceed for their own birds rights players. But, for example, Utah right now can be above the cap, make trades with their expirings and be right up under the tax threshhold for next season. If they just let all those contracts expire, maybe they can replace one player, but then they're stuck. And they've likely had to renounce a few others they may have wanted to keep (like Sefolosha, Jerebko and Udoh).

1, Of the current projected playoff teams, only 3, I believe, have a payroll lower than Utah's: Indiana, Philly, and Denver. All three teams are on the fringe of their conference playoffs.
2. Of the top-15 teams with the highest payrolls, only 3 would not make the playoffs right now. Clippers and Detroit are 9th in their conferences. Charlotte is 11th.

Have to spend money to bring in quality players. And that doesn't mean just having a big-3 or 4 and skimping on a bench.

 

[Jazz4ever]

I think we should maybe trade for Oubre now. If he improves again next year, several teams will be throwing big bucks at him. There is no guarantee he will pick us.
Washington knows the writing on the wall is they can't afford him, so wouldn't be asking the world for him.

 

[latin jazz]

Here's a list. Some are unlikely, though. So 15-20 was an exaggeration, but I'd say more than 10. And if FA's really want to land somewhere (like Hayward to Boston), teams make trades to clear cap space.

1. Cleveland (depends on Lebron's decision, but with this season's turmoil, I think he's Laker bound).
2. OKC: Anthony's contract will be up. So consider him among the FA's OKC could go after. I'm also assuming George will team up with LBJ in LAL. Westbrook is also a FA, but re-sign him and OKC still could have another max slot. Consider this a strong maybe,
3. LA Clippers: assumes Jordan isn't re-signed.
4. Milwaukee: depends on what they decide to do with Jabari. Let's call this unlikely.
5. Charlotte: if Kemba is traded for picks and 1-2 yr contracts
6. Brooklyn: Di'Angelo and Hollis-Jefferson will be cap holds. Like NY, delay giving new deals until signing a top FA.
7. SA: probably not quite a max slot, but could reset the team by letting go of Green, Gay, Parker, Manu.
8. Denver: depends on what stupid trade they do with Utah. JK. They'll have tons of cap space, especially if they decline the $30M option on Millsap.
9. New York: Renounce Kanter and delay re-signing Porzingis until signing another FA.
10. LA Lakers: unless, as expected, they get LBJ, PG or any other combo of top FA's this summer.
11. Philadelphia - even adding in Embiid's extension
12. Orlando - also including a new contract for Gordon
13. Indiana - choice may be to re-sign several of their players or go after 1-2 bigger names. But they have enough expirings to be considered players.
14. Detroit - let's call this unlikely because salaries don't include Tobias. But they could move Jackson.
15-17: Phoenix, Dallas, Sacramento
18: Utah.

Obviously, trades will factor into the final total.

Thanks for doing this (on a side note, hoopshype also screws up team/player options, so I would recommend using other sites)

So maybe between 10 to 15 teams will have cap space. Although some of the teams with cap space in 2018 could acquire players in FA or via trades. And even with cap space, some teams will embrace a multi-year tank (thus not being attractive to top free agents)

Yeah, things will change after the deadline, the draft, FA 2018, etc. I'll revisit the list after the deadline