2019 trade deadline discussion

[LoPo]

Good read.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/24057463/zach-lowe-winners-losers-2018-nba-free-agency

"Almost half of the league's total player pool will enter free agency in a year."

That is crazy. Almost half the league will be a free agent. Wow.

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[TheStormofWar]

Good read.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/24057463/zach-lowe-winners-losers-2018-nba-free-agency

"Almost half of the league's total player pool will enter free agency in a year."

That is crazy. Almost half the league will be a free agent. Wow.

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Sounds right to me. I don't expect the Jazz go get crazy with the cheese whiz either. With Thabo, Epke, and Burks likely gone and some capspace, MLEs and BAEs to work with (TPEs will be gone at that point), Utah could probably poach a player or two that somehow got overlooked. I think 2019 will be like 2016. A ton of money, a few GMs trying to keep their jobs, and a few others miscalculating will definitely make for some egregious contracts.

 

[LoPo]

I can see Thabo kept for one more year. Udoh too. I think we are going to give Mitchell the same teammates to win with his first three years. After that, we look to go big.

In 2020, Gobert and Ingles both go into a contract year. Favors, Crowder, O'Neale and others have to be re-signed. Mitchell might could be extended at that point. Depending on Rubio, we could have multiple max spots available.

Its in 2020 when we start reaping the benefits of Mitchell's ability to lure other big free agents. If we can snag 1 or 2 while also having the Bird Rights to Gobert, Ingles, Grayson, etc., we could be set for a dynasty.

Thats why I want to trade Burks for a bad contract and a 1st so badly. If we play our cards right, we are good until 2020 and then maybe a favorite in 2020 and beyond.

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[MDAV28]

I can see Thabo kept for one more year. Udoh too. I think we are going to give Mitchell the same teammates to win with his first three years. After that, we look to go big.

In 2020, Gobert and Ingles both go into a contract year. Favors, Crowder, O'Neale and others have to be re-signed. Mitchell might could be extended at that point. Depending on Rubio, we could have multiple max spots available.

Its in 2020 when we start reaping the benefits of Mitchell's ability to lure other big free agents. If we can snag 1 or 2 while also having the Bird Rights to Gobert, Ingles, Grayson, etc., we could be set for a dynasty.

Thats why I want to trade Burks for a bad contract and a 1st so badly. If we play our cards right, we are good until 2020 and then maybe a favorite in 2020 and beyond.

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Or you try both offseasons. Like I have been saying (and what the Jazz are doing..)

 

[LoPo]

Or you try both offseasons. Like I have been saying (and what the Jazz are doing..)

So under your plan:

Keep options open for a big 2019 free agent which would require declining on Favors and renouncing Rubio. End result - added "big free agent" but lose Favors and probably Rubio.

So under my plan:

Forget 2019 free agency, turn Burks into a future 1st rounder, focus on 2020 free agency. End result - a stress free 2019 offseason due to expected continuity, an extra 1st rounder, focus on a 2020 "big free agent".

I understand your plan, but I think we gain more by my plan since 2019 free agency isn't a sure thing and probably not worth it. An extra 1st rounder could be incredibly crucial down the road.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Or you try both offseasons. Like I have been saying (and what the Jazz are doing..)

We have two bites at the apple. I wonder what Rubio's long term future is and I'm fairly sure Favs understands we may have better options we want to pursue.

If Exum busts out and Rubio is inconsistent we may not keep him, but we could waive his cap hold without too much danger of a team paying him and stealing him away imo. If Rubio is really good then we may not need a major FA addition tbh. We need to maintain flexibility though... the league is in a constant state of flux. I'm 50-70% sure KD goes back to GS... but there is a real chance he bows out to the social/nba pressure to "have his own team". If the Warriors breakup (a little at least) then I think we could be right there in line. May not need a Klay... a Middleton might do.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

So under your plan:

Keep options open for a big 2019 free agent which would require declining on Favors and renouncing Rubio. End result - added "big free agent" but lose Favors and probably Rubio.

So under my plan:

Forget 2019 free agency, turn Burks into a future 1st rounder, focus on 2020 free agency. End result - a stress free 2019 offseason due to expected continuity, an extra 1st rounder, focus on a 2020 "big free agent".

I understand your plan, but I think we gain more by my plan since 2019 free agency isn't a sure thing and probably not worth it. An extra 1st rounder could be incredibly crucial down the road.

We aren't guaranteed to lose either guy... Favs has a later guarantee date... so you just wait. Ricky likes it here and may wait for us unless a huge offer comes along.

Your plan isn't awful either... but you wouldn't do it now... you'd wait until midseason to see how Ricky and Favs look. Unless they are killing it though you maintain flexibility.

 

[MDAV28]

So under your plan:

Keep options open for a big 2019 free agent which would require declining on Favors and renouncing Rubio. End result - added "big free agent" but lose Favors and probably Rubio.

So under my plan:

Forget 2019 free agency, turn Burks into a future 1st rounder, focus on 2020 free agency. End result - a stress free 2019 offseason due to expected continuity, an extra 1st rounder, focus on a 2020 "big free agent".

I understand your plan, but I think we gain more by my plan since 2019 free agency isn't a sure thing and probably not worth it. An extra 1st rounder could be incredibly crucial down the road.

Yep. You shoot for the big star and if not, guess what you get to keep Favors! (I think you can keep Ricky regardless, all you would have to do is trade Crowder into space probably).

I feel like you think just going after a star requires losing our guys. It doesn't, that's the beauty of it. Getting rid of that flexibility gets you nowhere except completely out of the running for a star FA.

Salary dumps are just dump for where we are as a franchise. We are good, let's try our hand at adding stars.

 

[LoPo]

We aren't guaranteed to lose either guy... Favs has a later guarantee date... so you just wait. Ricky likes it here and may wait for us unless a huge offer comes along.

Your plan isn't awful either... but you wouldn't do it now... you'd wait until midseason to see how Ricky and Favs look. Unless they are killing it though you maintain flexibility.

I get the logic you guys are using, but I simply do not believe that what I am proposing will be available mid-season. If you offered Burks to NY right now for Courtney Lee and a 1st, I am very confident we will get something done. NY is absolutely set on pursuing massive free agents next summer. Let's play on that ambition by picking up what could be a top 8 pick this coming draft. Even if we just pick swap a couple times, we could be looking at a top end lottery pick in 2019 just for paying a pretty decent Courtney Lee the next two years.

I don't think a single Jazz fan would regret having a good draft pick even if it costs us a shot at Tobias Harris. Most Jazz fans would be happy with one more year of Favors plus a lottery pick. And if we really wanted Tobias Harris that badly, couldn't we use the NY pick at this coming deadline to get the deal done if it looks like he's leaving?

 

[MDAV28]

We have two bites at the apple. I wonder what Rubio's long term future is and I'm fairly sure Favs understands we may have better options we want to pursue.

If Exum busts out and Rubio is inconsistent we may not keep him, but we could waive his cap hold without too much danger of a team paying him and stealing him away imo. If Rubio is really good then we may not need a major FA addition tbh. We need to maintain flexibility though... the league is in a constant state of flux. I'm 50-70% sure KD goes back to GS... but there is a real chance he bows out to the social/nba pressure to "have his own team". If the Warriors breakup (a little at least) then I think we could be right there in line. May not need a Klay... a Middleton might do.

We had 3 bites. We have 2 more. It doesn't make sense to take one of our bites away.

 

[MDAV28]

I get the logic you guys are using, but I simply do not believe that what I am proposing will be available mid-season. If you offered Burks to NY right now for Courtney Lee and a 1st, I am very confident we will get something done. NY is absolutely set on pursuing massive free agents next summer. Let's play on that ambition by picking up what could be a top 8 pick this coming draft. Even if we just pick swap a couple times, we could be looking at a top end lottery pick in 2019 just for paying a pretty decent Courtney Lee the next two years.

I don't think a single Jazz fan would regret having a good draft pick even if it costs us a shot at Tobias Harris. Most Jazz fans would be happy with one more year of Favors plus a lottery pick. And if we really wanted Tobias Harris that badly, couldn't we use the NY pick at this coming deadline to get the deal done if it looks like he's leaving?

It's not Tobias Harris I'm afraid of losing. i don't even think the Jazz sign him if he's available to leave space open for 2020. It's a shot at the BIG FREE AGENTS. It doesn't matter if you don't think it'll happen, you're guaranteeing it doesn't happen if you completely take yourself out of the running.

You shoot for the superstars. That's how you win.

 

[LoPo]

Yep. You shoot for the big star

Who?

We have a better chance of trading for a big star by having an additional 1st round pick than we do crossing our fingers and just hoping we get one of the few massive free agents in 2019 to come our way. We ain't getting KD, Kawhi, Klay or Butler next summer. Nobody else is worth the effort to hope for.