2024 NBA Draft Mega Thread

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

I think it could be a bunch of different things on Holland. Like if I was an actual team that was higher on him and though he might be slipping... I might go ahead and downplay it. Obviously could be some Whitmore stuff behind the scenes (coaches don't like him or he's aloof). Maybe in open gym the shot looks bad too but I can't imagine Castle's looks a whole lot better (though the positive attitude stuff on him likely is giving a boost too).

I just think the evaluators will look at him and say "6-8ish athlete who has a high motor but can't shoot yet... highly rated HS player that ended up in a ****** situation in a pro league... I'm in". I'd be surprised if either Holland or Castle fell out of the top 10 and could see one or both in the top 5.

Holland was considered a top 5 guy coming into the season. He needs to show shooting touch in his workouts and understand that he's going to be operating with a more limited shot diet. He played pretty loose at Ignite. He's not going to take those shots or make decisions with the ball like he did in the Gleague.

If he really ***** the bed with his shooting in workouts, then teams are going to start asking themselves how much different he is from a guy like Ryan Dunn. However, if he shoots well enough, he checks enough other boxes to be a top 10 guy. I think that's the most likely outcome.

 

[KqWIN]

I think it could be a bunch of different things on Holland. Like if I was an actual team that was higher on him and though he might be slipping... I might go ahead and downplay it. Obviously could be some Whitmore stuff behind the scenes (coaches don't like him or he's aloof). Maybe in open gym the shot looks bad too but I can't imagine Castle's looks a whole lot better (though the positive attitude stuff on him likely is giving a boost too).

I just think the evaluators will look at him and say "6-8ish athlete who has a high motor but can't shoot yet... highly rated HS player that ended up in a ****** situation in a pro league... I'm in". I'd be surprised if either Holland or Castle fell out of the top 10 and could see one or both in the top 5.

I think you can draw a lot of parallels to Kuminga. Ironically, I think it was actually Givony who said "WTF are we talking about, it's Jon Kuminga" when Kuminga was seemingly slipping in the draft because of his poor performance. Maybe we will land on that once again. It may not be be for every team, but I'd agree with you that I would have a hard time seeing 10 teams not buying into it.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Holland was considered a top 5 guy coming into the season. He needs to show shooting touch in his workouts and understand that he's going to be operating with a more limited shot diet. He played pretty loose at Ignite. He's not going to take those shots or make decisions with the ball like he did at Ignite.

I get that. But if I was a GM I would think he'd be really loose and shooting a ton on that team. I wouldn't really be concerned about that. I also think he has a better excuse for poor shooting than like my guy Castle... as he made the leap from HS to NBA three point line. The FT shooting wasn't bad so I think there are signs there.

If this draft wasn't a tire fire I would understand the critical takes on Holland and see him sliding to end of lotto... in this draft though?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I think you can draw a lot of parallels to Kuminga. Ironically, I think it was actually Givony who said "WTF are we talking about, it's Jon Kuminga" when Kuminga was seemingly slipping in the draft because of his poor performance. Maybe we will land on that once again. It may not be be for every team, but I'd agree with you that I would have a hard time seeing 10 teams not buying into it.

And I can see that comp but also I think Holland has a more defined position projectible role than Kuminga did... who was kinda this mystery box of potential (and still is).

I think the Ignite history is hitting Holland as well. Long and short of it is I think the hate has gone too far and I could easily see measurements or a couple reports of good workouts throwing him top 5.

At this point I'm getting more comfortable just staying at #8 if Castle or Holland were there. Obviously Shep/Topic would be cool too if they were the "fallers".

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

I like him. Just think he's a bit of a tweener.

He's a knock-down shooter at the 4. Offensively, he's in the same league as Jabari Smith, imo. The question is what else is he willing to do. I don't think he'd be as high a priority for the Jazz with the way Hendricks started fitting in this year. The Jazz desperately need on-ball creation. And if they want a pure shooter, Knecht is going to be pretty appealing.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

I get that. But if I was a GM I would think he'd be really loose and shooting a ton on that team. I wouldn't really be concerned about that. I also think he has a better excuse for poor shooting than like my guy Castle... as he made the leap from HS to NBA three point line. The FT shooting wasn't bad so I think there are signs there.

If this draft wasn't a tire fire I would understand the critical takes on Holland and see him sliding to end of lotto... in this draft though?

The bigger problem with Castle isn't that his shooting percentages were low. It's that he passed up open shots and drove into traffic repeatedly. He didn't want to shoot. That suggests he's got further to go in his development, especially as a guard.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

He's a knock-down shooter at the 4. Offensively, he's in the same league as Jabari Smith, imo. The question is what else is he willing to do. I don't think he'd be as high a priority for the Jazz with the way Hendricks started fitting in this year. The Jazz desperately need on-ball creation. And if they want a pure shooter, Knecht is going to be pretty appealing.

Who does he guard? Seems to have a typical PF build but not the mobility of a guy like Smith and Hendricks. That's why I think he's a tweener.

 

[KqWIN]

And I can see that comp but also I think Holland has a more defined position projectible role than Kuminga did... who was kinda this mystery box of potential (and still is).

I think the Ignite history is hitting Holland as well. Long and short of it is I think the hate has gone too far and I could easily see measurements or a couple reports of good workouts throwing him top 5.

At this point I'm getting more comfortable just staying at #8 if Castle or Holland were there. Obviously Shep/Topic would be cool too if they were the "fallers".

Right....on one hand I think the criticisms are fair and valid, on the other hand I think he is being dropped too far for his cons. I would love to have Holland or Castle at #8, I have Holland ahead because I think the "if he can shoot" scenario yields more potential. Castle is definitely more refined and I think a smarter player, but Holland isn't that bad at the role player stuff. I would have liked to see Holland in a 22% USG role on a good team instead of 28% USG role on a team getting whooped every night.

Holland is 100% an Ainge type as well.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The bigger problem with Castle isn't that his shooting percentages were low. It's that he passed up open shots and drove into traffic repeatedly. He didn't want to shoot. That suggests he's got further to go in his development, especially as a guard.

It can mean so many things.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

I get that. But if I was a GM I would think he'd be really loose and shooting a ton on that team. I wouldn't really be concerned about that. I also think he has a better excuse for poor shooting than like my guy Castle... as he made the leap from HS to NBA three point line. The FT shooting wasn't bad so I think there are signs there.

If this draft wasn't a tire fire I would understand the critical takes on Holland and see him sliding to end of lotto... in this draft though?

He needs a good Combine and Pre-draft, but yeah, he's super young, he's one of the best functional athletes in the draft (if not the best), and his ceiling is very high. He also put up numbers in the Gleague even if the efficiency was poor--19 pts, 7 rebs., 3+ stocks.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Right....on one hand I think the criticisms are fair and valid, on the other hand I think he is being dropped too far for his cons. I would love to have Holland or Castle at #8, I have Holland ahead because I think the "if he can shoot" scenario yields more potential. Castle is definitely more refined and I think a smarter player, but Holland isn't that bad at the role player stuff. I would have liked to see Holland in a 22% USG role on a good team instead of 28% USG role on a team getting whooped every night.

Holland is 100% an Ainge type as well.

How is Holland on corner 3s? I'm going to see if we have the data.

If you have ever shot from the NBA 3 point line and are used to shooting from the HS line... its ****ing far. I can really see that being a huge one year adjustment and the bad shooting being a little overstated.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

GMs aren't going to tell Jonathan Givony what their draft board looks like. You heard from Danny Ainge yesterday how cagey and dismissive he was when he as asked about the draft.

Projecting the draft also requires an actual draft order and workout feedback, and not just insecure twitter jockeys hyping Zach Edey and Hansen Yang. That said, Ron Holland will in all likelihood be considered a top 10 prospect, which is partly why he shut down his season more than a month early.

No **** Sherlock. That's why these dudes get intel from multiple sources.

Also FO are NEVER monolithic. It's not like because you hear X team likes Y player that it means every decision maker on that team likes that guy.

Point plank period DX tends to get it right a lot of the time. Any attempt to poopoo them seems pathetic in my eyes. Givony wrote the book on internet era scouting and opened up the international scouting scene to casuals and internet draft enthusiast.

Does that include DX promoting some players? Yes, it means they will post a Twitter highlight post and call Cody Williams a PG. Or act like Ron Holland is 6'8.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

How is Holland on corner 3s? I'm going to see if we have the data.

If you have ever shot from the NBA 3 point line and are used to shooting from the HS line... its ****ing far. I can really see that being a huge one year adjustment and the bad shooting being a little overstated.

It's also the GLeague and there is hardly any defense and it's more likely these players just aren't good shooters.

I can't recall any Ignite player being a bad shooter in the G who has gotten good at the nba level.

 

[KqWIN]

How is Holland on corner 3s? I'm going to see if we have the data.

If you have ever shot from the NBA 3 point line and are used to shooting from the HS line... its ****ing far. I can really see that being a huge one year adjustment and the bad shooting being a little overstated.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Agree but is Cronin and a temporary/weird ownership group isn’t the job I’d leave the mothership for… I’m sure he had his reasons and knew his options.

A job is a job. They got a lot of picks. It's probably a fun team to work for if you are a draft person.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Don't know why people are so upset with me calling DX reporters now, that's what they are. When they rank Holland 13, you know that's on the basis of their insider info/exchange of info rather than their own opinion. If Hoop Intellect ranked him 13, I would know that it's just based on his opinion alone. I think both are interesting to read. Like I said, if DX is low on Holland, it makes me wonder what's going behind the scenes to make him drop that low especially in comparison to a guy like Matas.

Givony has always been an interviewer/reporter. That's why he hired Achmdtz and now works with Woo.

DX also post a mock and a board. They post their opinions. Their stuff is just behind a paywall

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

Who does he guard? Seems to have a typical PF build but not the mobility of a guy like Smith and Hendricks. That's why I think he's a tweener.

He'll guard 4s and he'll switch a bit on the perimeter. He's not anywhere near the defender that Smith and Hendricks are. I don't think that makes him a tweener per se, just a limited defender.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Why is Buzelis higher than Holland?

Because Buzelis has creation upside and Holland has very little creation upside. Hollands potential is probably the most team dependent in the lottery imo.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Who does he guard? Seems to have a typical PF build but not the mobility of a guy like Smith and Hendricks. That's why I think he's a tweener.

His issue is not quick enough to stick to guys and not smart/engaged/feel enough to defend well off-ball. Will have to improve off ball defense and just general toughness so he can be an effective rebounder.

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

It's also the GLeague and there is hardly any defense and it's more likely these players just aren't good shooters.

I can't recall any Ignite player being a bad shooter in the G who has gotten good at the nba level.

Jaden Hardy was a miserable shooter in the Gleague. It's one of the reasons he really slipped in the draft. His FT% (88%) was a strong signal, however.

It's just a big adjustment for teenagers to step out to the NBA line and get shots off at NBA speed. It's one of the reasons why Gleague isn't actually a great development path for HS prospects.