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538 Projects Donovan for 8th most WAR among current players over next 7 years

We just get a crappy replacement player for DM's spot, like Lucas III levels, then his WAR is amazing!
Is that how it works?
 
Jazz Spazz said:
Is that how it works?
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No.

A replacement-level player, in theory, is someone who is freely or cheaply available, e.g. a G League player or someone signed to a contract for the league minimum salary.

How good, or bad, are these sorts of players? They’re below-average — but it turns out they’re not that far below average. Over the past four seasons, players signed to minimum-salary contracts or two-way contracts subtract about 1.5 points per 100 possessions from a team’s scoring margin1, relative to an average player...
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r_u_s_t_b_u_c_k_e_t said:
Just one example, I know, but their model pegged Oladipo as a "Future All-Star" even after last season when everyone gave up on him. No doubt you will stick with your data-free, groupthink evaluations though. Godspeed.
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LOL Who was the first person to bring up Donovan Mitchell on this site? Group-think? Im like 6 months to several years ahead of the 'group think' that goes on on this site..... Why do the teams pay scouts? they believe in the eye test as well. Sorry but just cuz u got an applied mathematics degree doesn't mean u know ball.

Show me the models and I'll show u the flaws, it's that simple, ****'s easily debunked. They are about generating clicks...
 
These sites cater to people who don't watch the games but still want to put up a front on some message board that they know what their talking about.... thats their target audience, no?
 
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Groupthink
 
Et tu Brute said:
You know Ron I totally respect your perspective on this whole Simmons issue (I do seriously).
It might just be the Aussie in me, but something says to me that Simmons is already more important to that team than Embiid. It was clear, Brad Stevens had one goal - shut Simmons down. And shut him down he did. Stopping Embiid was more meh. Simmons has that 'one man' team leader thing which means IF he gets some kind of shot - he is going to be a mini-Lebron within two years.

I also actually think Simmons wet the bed a little in the Boston series. He became timid when really if he wasn't going to shoot he should have kept pressuring the refs by driving. He definitely isn't the strongest player mentally at this point among the new breed. Ice cool Tatum and to a similar extent Mitchell have that DNA. This might be Simmons' most damaging issue moving forward - as hitting a 12-15 ft jumpshot is something he is actually already capable of doing.
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Simmons is definitely not as important as embiid and that's what the playoffs and the Boston series made crystal clear. Boston did what all teams should do against Simmons. Not guard him off the ball and when he has the ball give him 5 getf of space, guard his passing lanes and dare him to shoot.

If he can knock down that open shot reliable, watch out. If not he can still be good but there are counters to his game.

Embiid doesn't have a big weakness to his game that can be exposed. He is a much more complete player. You can't shut him down. He got double teamed a lot more than Simmons did. Simmons often didn't get single teamed in that series.

The 76ers offense is more tailored to Simmons strengths and weaknesses because they have to.
 
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Gilles de Rais said:
well why pay scouts at all then? 538's already got it all figured out apparently. seems wasteful, no?
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Statistical information is partial, and does not translate perfectly even between NBA teams, much less different environments, but they are good at making unbiased comparisons . Scouts have personal biases (different from scout to scout) and bring those biases into their evaluations, but can be good at seeing the types of talents that translate well from league to league. Why would you not want both?
 
Gilles de Rais said:
These sites cater to people who don't watch the games but still want to put up a front on some message board that they know what their talking about.... thats their target audience, no?
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538 caters to a lot of people, but I don't know anyone who reads their basketball articles and does not watch the games. What would be the point?
 
One Brow said:
538 caters to a lot of people, but I don't know anyone who reads their basketball articles and does not watch the games. What would be the point?
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Agreed. These advanced stat sites, and even forums, are a natural progression from watching hundreds of hours of basketball a year. It's human nature to get a little "armchair GM" in us.
 
Ron Mexico said:
Simmons is definitely not as important as embiid and that's what the playoffs and the Boston series made crystal clear. Boston did what all teams should do against Simmons. Not guard him off the ball and when he has the ball give him 5 getf of space, guard his passing lanes and dare him to shoot.

If he can knock down that open shot reliable, watch out. If not he can still be good but there are counters to his game.

Embiid doesn't have a big weakness to his game that can be exposed. He is a much more complete player. You can't shut him down. He got double teamed a lot more than Simmons did. Simmons often didn't get single teamed in that series.

The 76ers offense is more tailored to Simmons strengths and weaknesses because they have to.
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Embiid might struggle to stay on the court at times in the future. Horford murdered him and he can't recover against the quicker guards... He has a horrible handle.

We will see
 
Gilles de Rais said:
LOL Who was the first person to bring up Donovan Mitchell on this site? Group-think? Im like 6 months to several years ahead of the 'group think' that goes on on this site..... Why do the teams pay scouts? they believe in the eye test as well. Sorry but just cuz u got an applied mathematics degree doesn't mean u know ball.

Show me the models and I'll show u the flaws, it's that simple, ****'s easily debunked. They are about generating clicks...
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Your avatar is praising the use of WAR.
 
Et tu Brute said:
Embiid might struggle to stay on the court at times in the future. Horford murdered him and he can't recover against the quicker guards... He has a horrible handle.

We will see
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Embiid has excellent handle for a big. He wont be unplayable.

It wasnt Embiid best game because he was doubled a lot. They threw a lot of people at him. But he did still put up 23 points and 14 boards a game compared to Horfords 15 points and 8 boards. I would not say that is murdering him. Yes, pgs are quick guards can beat Embiid just like they can every big in the league including Gobert.
 
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