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Coin....

Bodhi said:
So, in laymans terms, why is there a better chance of getting 6th than 4th if your end up 4th? Isn't that odd?

Disclaimer, I didn't graduate highschool. Seriously.
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No disclaimer needed. I agree it may seem odd on the surface, but to stay at #4 means no teams from 5-14 jump ahead - i.e. they all remain exactly where they were. If any of those teams gets a top-3 pick, the Jazz drop down. Also, if the Jazz get a top-3 pick they move up.

So think of it as:
A. the combined odds for any of the #4-#14 teams moving up >>> than the odds for all those teams remaining exactly where they are.
 
The Jazz won the first flip, moving into the fourth position in the NBA draft lottery and capturing a 10.4 percent chance at the No. 1 overall pick. The C’s are slotted fifth with a 10.3 percent chance. Utah can pick no lower than seventh while the Celtics could select as low as eighth.

While the two teams have a nearly identical chance at a top-three pick — 33.7 percent for the Jazz and 33.4 for the Celtics — Utah’s luck has more significant ramifications should neither team win a shot at (most likely) Jabari Parker, Andrew Wiggins or Joel Embiid. The Jazz have a 9.9 percent shot at the fourth selection, 37.3 percent shot at fifth, 17.6 shot at sixth and 1.4 percent shot at seventh.


Meanwhile, the C’s cannot get the fourth pick and have a 23.7 percent shot at fifth, 34.2 percent shot at sixth, 8.2 percent shot at seventh and 0.3 percent shot at eighth, according to Celtics assistant GM Mike Zarren.

In other words, the Jazz now have a 98.4 percent chance at a top-six pick while the C’s have an 8.5 percent chance at seven or eight. Similarly, Utah gets a 43.6 percent shot at a top-four pick while the C’s are stuck at 33.4 percent.




simplified version
 
jope said:
if i remember statistics, 'AND' sequences (condition1 AND condition2) get treated with multiplication yes, but as GVC pointed out, we have about a ~33.69% chance at the top 3, not a 23.7%.
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The probability of both ending up in the top 3 isn't calculated like that, as they aren't independent events.

The probability that both end up in the top 3 is about 7.9%.

You can subtract that number from the probability that either team is in the top 3 to get the probability that that team is in the top 3 and the other isn't.

Summing those three numbers gives you the probability that at least one is in the top 3 (This is just the sum of the probability of each being in the top 3 minus the 7.9% probability of both being in the top 3). Subtract that number from 100, and you have the probability that neither is in the top 3.
 
Stoked said:
It's ont he twitter feed on ESPN! YES YE SYES YES YLSDnmgamsdg;er!!!!!!! HIJOLE VATOS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! jajajajajajajajaja

Also the GSTankers pick is #23. So right now Utah is 4 & 23.
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Wow the 23rd pick ought to bring us someone with the talents of Morris Almond.
 
jope said:
if i remember statistics, 'AND' sequences (condition1 AND condition2) get treated with multiplication yes, but as GVC pointed out, we have about a ~33.69% chance at the top 3, not a 23.7%.
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I think you just treat them the same. The conditions are just the inverse---e.g., condition 1 = Boston has 23% chance of top 3, and the inverse condition is that Boston has a 77% chance of not getting in the top 3. That makes sense to me intuitively.
 
**** yes. I'm drunk at Union Station and I'm ****ing happy.


This electronic post has been constructed, arranged and transmitted via an Apple branded communication device using the Tapatalk application.
 
GVC said:
The probability of both ending up in the top 3 isn't calculated like that, as they aren't independent events.

The probability that both end up in the top 3 is about 7.9%.

You can subtract that number from the probability that either team is in the top 3 to get the probability that that team is in the top 3 and the other isn't.

Summing those three numbers gives you the probability that at least one is in the top 3 (This is just the sum of the probability of each being in the top 3 minus the 7.9% probability of both being in the top 3). Subtract that number from 100, and you have the probability that neither is in the top 3.
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I think the idea here is that if Utah does get into the top 3, the chance of Boston also getting in the top 3 goes down because Utah has claimed one of the 3 positions and only 2 remain....and it matters which slot 1 - 3 that Utah gets. I think the 7.9% probability is too high, no?
 
Well, technically, Boston actually had a better overall record than when did anyway, going by NBA Playoff Tiebreakers. Neither one of us were a division winner. We split the season series at 1-1. We aren't in the same division, so the next tie-breaker would be conference record. Boston had a much better conference record than we did, so, they technically had a better season than we did. It is just Karmic justice that we won the tie-breaker over them. The stars aligned. Hopefully they will align again on May 20th and we will get into the top 2 picks, guaranteeing us either Wiggins or Parker.

Sent from the JazzFanz app
 
[size/HUGE] fixed [/size];809444 said:
biggest win of the season.
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Only things bigger than winning the coin flip is:

1. Winning the #1
2. Jumping to #2
3. Settling on #3
4. Corbin being told he will not receive an extension but it has to happen by 4/19/14.

Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalk
 
Lakers fans doing the ESPN sim are getting a high predominance of the 6th and 7th pick---resulting in the selection of Aaron Gordon.

ESPN thinks the Lakers' draft board goes: Wiggins, Parker, Exum, if the Lakers get in the top 3.
 
Catchall said:
I think the idea here is that if Utah does get into the top 3, the chance of Boston also getting in the top 3 goes down because Utah has claimed one of the 3 positions and only 2 remain....and it matters which slot 1 - 3 that Utah gets. I think the 7.9% probability is too high, no?
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Nope. Consider: The two of them have 207 balls combined, so there's a 20.7% chance one of them lands the 1st pick. That also leaves the remaining team a better than 10% chance of landing the second pick (104 or 103 balls out of the remaining 897 or 896 balls), meaning the probability that they pick #1 and #2 is better than 2% (2.390%). The probability of them picking #1 and #3 (2.633%) or #2 and #3 (2.891%) should be even higher.

Here are the relevant probabilities:

Boston Top-3 Total: 33.414%
Utah Top-3 Total: 33.693%

Boston AND Utah Top-3 Total: 7.914%

Boston and notUtah Top-3 Total: 25.499%
Utah and notBoston Top-3 Total: 25.779%

Utah and/or Boston Top-3 Total: 59.192%

Neither Utah nor Boston in Top-3 Total: 40.808%
 
GVC said:
Nope. Consider: The two of them have 207 balls combined, so there's a 20.7% chance one of them lands the 1st pick. That also leaves the remaining team a better than 10% chance of landing the second pick (104 or 103 balls out of the remaining 897 or 896 balls), meaning the probability that they pick #1 and #2 is better than 2% (2.390%). The probability of them picking #1 and #3 (2.633%) or #2 and #3 (2.891%) should be even higher.

Here are the relevant probabilities:

Boston Top-3 Total: 33.414%
Utah Top-3 Total: 33.693%

Boston AND Utah Top-3 Total: 7.914%

Boston and notUtah Top-3 Total: 25.499%
Utah and notBoston Top-3 Total: 25.779%

Utah and/or Boston Top-3 Total: 59.192%

Neither Utah nor Boston in Top-3 Total: 40.808%
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Okay, sounds good to me.
 
It's all nice and all but we shouldn't celebrate too much. We might win it this round and boston the next. Karma's a bitch sometimes!
 
DutchJazzer said:
the probability that both boston and lakers land in top 2.

is 100%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


FACT
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Can you imagine the negativity that would cause the NBA? They would be chastised for decades if that were to happen. It's bad enough that in the past 30 years there has only been 8 different teams that have won the Championship. Giving two of the biggest franchises the top two picks would be suicide IMHO. If I am the NBA, I do whatever it takes not to allow that to happen. But I agree with you. I just hope they are smarter then that.
 
sojodave said:
Here is how the NBA draft lottery works.

1. All teams missing the playoffs are in the Lottery
2. Teams with worse records get more chances at winning a top three pick (more ping pong ball combos)
3. The 1st overall pick is awarded by a drawing of ping pong balls
4. The 2nd overall pick is awarded by a drawing of ping pong balls
5. The 3rd overall pick is awarded by a drawing of ping pong balls
6. Remaining lottery teams, sorted by record, fill out picks 4-14
7. Playoff teams, sorted by record, are assigned picks 15-30 - playoff seeds and outcomes have no impact
8. Coin flip(or drawing) decides who picks first between teams with same record
9. Tied lottery teams split their ping pong balls evenly, and any odd remainder and the better draft order position are given to the coin flip winner
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GVC said:
There's only about a 10% chance that the worst 3 teams all end up picking in the top 3 (in any order). There's roughly a 34% chance the Jazz end up in the top 3. That leaves a 56% chance that at least one non-Jazz team outside the top 3 ends up picking in the top 3 and the Jazz don't pick in the top 3, which is about 5.5x more likely than the top 3 picking in the top 3, which is what's required for the Jazz to end up picking 4th. That's why 5th is the most likely outcome.

6th is more likely than 4th because it's more likely 2 non-bottom-3 teams end up picking in the top 3 than all 3 bottom-3 teams picking in the top 3 (again, 10% chance).
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These two posts combined finally made me understand wtf is going on.

Thanks to you both
 
Doublea said:
excited-baby.gif
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That is hilarious.
 
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