Confidence Level in Walker

[hgb]

I thought he had some really good moment against the Magic, in particular defensively, but he also had some moments that really showed his problem. He drastically needs to build confidence in his offense, that one play where he missed a layup gimme was the worst, but he also blew a layup where he was fouled but missed a really easy reverse finish. Hopefully he can fix this, but it really already should be the first thing on his mind on a finish, and I feel it does speak to a problem with decision-making.

Still, he did do this stuff much better last year, so I'm very much hopeful that he will return to the clinical finishing we've seen before. I don't think he's a potential star, but I think he'll be very solid starter for a long time. Maybe sniff a couple of all-star seasons.

 

[MT Steve]

I see that Cy decided to do something special for the one year anniversary of his "Kessler should no longer play until KO is traded" post.

 

[fishonjazz]

I thought he had some really good moment against the Magic, in particular defensively, but he also had some moments that really showed his problem. He drastically needs to build confidence in his offense, that one play where he missed a layup gimme was the worst, but he also blew a layup where he was fouled but missed a really easy reverse finish. Hopefully he can fix this, but it really already should be the first thing on his mind on a finish, and I feel it does speak to a problem with decision-making.

Still, he did do this stuff much better last year, so I'm very much hopeful that he will return to the clinical finishing we've seen before. I don't think he's a potential star, but I think he'll be very solid starter for a long time. Maybe sniff a couple of all-star seasons.

Ya for those worried about his finishing I would point to his field goal percentage last season. It was 72%. For a reference Rudy gobert has played 11 seasons. pretty much all he does is dunk and do layups, like kessler. In Rudy 11 years he has never shot 72% like kessler did in his rookie season. Kessler would have led the entire league in field goal percentage if he had enough made field goals (300). he made 298 lol. So 2 more made field goals and he would have led the league.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I see that Cy decided to do something special for the one year anniversary of his "Kessler should no longer play until KO is traded" post.

Did you look that up or did you just remember?

 

[MT Steve]

Did you look that up or did you just remember?

I was going to say something about how we're approaching the one year anniversary of that post, then when I looked it up to double check, I laughed outloud.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

Ya for those worried about his finishing I would point to his field goal percentage last season. It was 72%. For a reference Rudy gobert has played 11 seasons. pretty much all he does is dunk and do layups, like kessler. In Rudy 11 years he has never shot 72% like kessler did in his rookie season. Kessler would have led the entire league in field goal percentage if he had enough made field goals (300). he made 298 lol. So 2 more made field goals and he would have led the league.

Isn't his FG% last year the reason to be concerned about this year? His value on offense is how efficient he is, even with the awful free throw shooting. Which means there isn't much room for regression in that FG% for him to still have offensive value.

He has been over 50% shooting in two games this year, he had one great game, and otherwise his high is 8 points. Overall he is shooting 58% (his one good game he was 10/11). Even the mid 60% would be a pretty huge drop off from last year. What are you predicting he ends up settling at? 70% doesn't seem to be in the cards this time around.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

I'd be much more forgiving of his overall stats if he hadn't had one great game and five awful ones. Not helping the narrative that he only works in certain matchups, and those matchups are basically everything that the league is leaving in the dust.

Last time I trashed him was the one good game, so I'm doing my best to help the guy out here...

 

[KqWIN]

I'd be much more forgiving of his overall stats if he hadn't had one great game and five awful ones. Not helping the narrative that he only works in certain matchups, and those matchups are basically everything that the league is leaving in the dust.

Last time I trashed him was the one good game, so I'm doing my best to help the guy out here...

We should have a competition to see whose kiss of death is more lethal

 

[The Jazz Wonderbra]

I said this before the season and I will repeat it again I am sure.

LOSING ALEX JENSEN WILL TAKE A TOLL ON WALKER KESSLER'S DEVELOPMENT.

Alex was the key to Gobert and Kessler's rises. He is the drop center whisperer. Lively is going to take off in Dallas. This one is on management for not keeping Alex around because he had his value.

 

[Elizah Huge]

I said this before the season and I will repeat it again I am sure.

LOSING ALEX JENSEN WILL TAKE A TOLL ON WALKER KESSLER'S DEVELOPMENT.

Alex was the key to Gobert and Kessler's rises. He is the drop center whisperer. Lively is going to take off in Dallas. This one is on management for not keeping Alex around because he had his value.

Tony said on Twitter that Jensen wasn’t even the big man coach. Just saying.

 

[fishonjazz]

Isn't his FG% last year the reason to be concerned about this year? His value on offense is how efficient he is, even with the awful free throw shooting. Which means there isn't much room for regression in that FG% for him to still have offensive value.

He has been over 50% shooting in two games this year, he had one great game, and otherwise his high is 8 points. Overall he is shooting 58% (his one good game he was 10/11). Even the mid 60% would be a pretty huge drop off from last year. What are you predicting he ends up settling at? 70% doesn't seem to be in the cards this time around.

Nah, I think the larger sample size is likely to overtake the smaller sample size. Add the fact his minutes are down and shot attempts are down and that means that if he makes a few of those easy one that HE ALWAYS made last season then in the blink of an eye his finishing is back to not being a problem but rather a strength.
basically if he makes like 3 shots this season that he missed then his field goal percentage and finishing is fantastic again. I just dont think he forgot how to make layups and dunks in the off season. Do you think he forgot how to make dunks and layups in the off season or do you think the super duper small sample size might not be a great indicator of how the 82 game season will go?

One other note. Part of his field goal percentage being down this season is three pointers. last season he attempted 3 total. He attempted 4 so far this season (1-4). He is trying some stuff. unfortunately.

 

[Bawse Dawg]

Nah, I think the larger sample size is likely to overtake the smaller sample size. Add the fact his minutes are down and shot attempts are down and that means that if he makes a few of those easy one that HE ALWAYS made last season then in the blink of an eye his finishing is back to not being a problem but rather a strength.
basically if he makes like 3 shots this season that he missed then his field goal percentage and finishing is fantastic again. I just dont think he forgot how to make layups and dunks in the off season. Do you think he forgot how to make dunks and layups in the off season or do you think the super duper small sample size might not be a great indicator of how the 82 game season will go?

One other note. Part of his field goal percentage being down this season is three pointers. last season he attempted 3 total. He attempted 4 so far this season (1-4). He is trying some stuff. unfortunately.

That super duper small sample size is 1/12th of the season. Definitely not the full picture, but we are closer to these stats being 'real' than a lot of people seem to want to admit.

You don't think the scouting report after a successful rookie season may have keyed in teams on how to make him less effective at dunks and layups? I asked if you thought he'd be at 70%+ again, and it looks like your answer was yes. I do disagree with you in that case. You also make the point that taking threes will lower his percentage, but also you think over the course of a season he will get back to last years level with his percentages. So I am actually curious how that math all works out to you.

Also as a general question to all: How many games before we can start judging players based on what they have done in games? When do we pass over that threshold when it is allowed?

 

[Bawse Dawg]

Bawse getting home after a long day of slandering Kessler so that he won't play like *** in the next game:

 

[fishonjazz]

That super duper small sample size is 1/12th of the season. Definitely not the full picture, but we are closer to these stats being 'real' than a lot of people seem to want to admit.

You don't think the scouting report after a successful rookie season may have keyed in teams on how to make him less effective at dunks and layups? I asked if you thought he'd be at 70%+ again, and it looks like your answer was yes. I do disagree with you in that case. You also make the point that taking threes will lower his percentage, but also you think over the course of a season he will get back to last years level with his percentages. So I am actually curious how that math all works out to you.

Also as a general question to all: How many games before we can start judging players based on what they have done in games? When do we pass over that threshold when it is allowed?

I didn't say I think he will be at last years percentage though. That is best in the league. I think he will be right about where guys like him and rudy usually are. Im more talking about his current percentages being ****ed because of small sample size. do you think he will stay below 60% for the year? Do you think he will continue to struggle to make easy layups or do think he will get back to making easy layups again?

I dont think sub 60% field goal percentage is "real" for him.

You can judge them whenever you want. We do it each and every game. Just should probably realize that Kessler will probably make easy layups and dunks again going forward and clarkson probably wont be 5-20 very often. Some players will play better as the season goes on and some will play worse. Lucky for us i think kessler, ochai, clarkson, sexton, dunn and keyonte will all get better as the season goes on. I dont see any guys really playing much worse. Im definitely a glass half full homer type of fan though so many might disagree.

 

[FrenchJazzFa]

I see him having a Rudy type career. Probably a bit better offensively but probably not 3 times best NBA defender. Still a good pick, regarding his age. After he will have to stay consistent, whcih is never easy. Rudy has a long and great career ( except last year).

 

[Ferguson_Mellochill]

I'm pretty confident that Kessler can be a solid starter-level player, perhaps comparable in value to Brook Lopez. Lopez has more shooting/scoring chops, but Kessler is quicker and bouncier. Kessler needs to develop a counter move, whether it's a little hook shot or push shot. Kessler is a solid rebounder and rim protector, and that's a nice skillset to have.

I'm not 100% convinced that Kessler is what Danny Ainge envisions at the 5 long term, but I guess we'll find out eventually.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I thought he had some really good moment against the Magic, in particular defensively, but he also had some moments that really showed his problem. He drastically needs to build confidence in his offense, that one play where he missed a layup gimme was the worst, but he also blew a layup where he was fouled but missed a really easy reverse finish. Hopefully he can fix this, but it really already should be the first thing on his mind on a finish, and I feel it does speak to a problem with decision-making.

Still, he did do this stuff much better last year, so I'm very much hopeful that he will return to the clinical finishing we've seen before. I don't think he's a potential star, but I think he'll be very solid starter for a long time. Maybe sniff a couple of all-star seasons.

I mean he was great finishing around the rim last year… it’s not like we haven’t see it.

 

[JazzGal]

Hardly fair comparing Walker to prime Gobert. Compare him to second year Gobert, and Walker will likely be as good or better than Rudy was then. In Rudy's second year, I remember him being quite awkward. I doubt many of us would have thought Rudy would evolve as he did. I didn't, anyway, and was thrilled to watch it - as I will be watching Walker get better.

 

[JazzGal]

Looking back at year two Rudy. Started 37 games, played in all 82 games. Averaged 26.3 minutes, 8.4 pts, 60.4 FG%, 62.3 FT%, 9.5 reb, 1.3 ast, 2.3 blk, 0.8 stl.

 

[FrenchJazzFa]

Agree with that. Walter is pretty much in advance compare to Rudy. He need at least 1 .5 years more before beeing able to show his complete potential. Wait and see.