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Conspiracy Theory of the Day; Cobra Effect applied to Geopolitics.

scootsy said:
We really need to adopt a foreign policy similar to N. Korea.. If not, then similar to Iran where we simply outsource foreign policy to a terrorist organization like Hezbollah.
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Sometimes a little hard to figure how serious some comments are, mine included I suppose.

One of the more credible models I use in interpreting news drummed up by our corporate warlords is called "The Bowery Wars", or "Flower Wars". It comes from Aztec history in the age before Westerners brought in Machiavelli's methods to the Americas, and is essentially a much more civilized and honest way to do war than Machiavellian methods. . . .

The Aztecs were the super power in their area at the time, and they had a lot of peripheral enemies, some of them pretty sophisticated and even charming folks. Their elites could operate on the same social level as the Aztec elites, and could even be friends with their enemies, and intermarry and stuff like that. But they still needed wars to keep their people in a manageable frame of mind. . . . scared ****less of their enemies and desperately wanting "protection" from their local armies. Of course elites have understood this through the ages, and all great civilizations have had some kind of more or less permanent standing armies and enemies of convenience. . . .

In the Aztec era, the two camps of elites would cooperate and make wars fun. They would build boweries filled with flowers, shade, and booze--- on a good vantage point overlooking the battlefield, and both sets of "leaders" would gather there with their pretty women and have a real "war party". They would watch their armies advance, engage in battle, and cheer for the casualties. It was more or less agreed upon in advance that the wars wouldn't really change anything substantial like territory, and that both sides would come off with fresh captives for their slave labor needs. . . .

It's really great to be a "war lord" or a "military equipment supplier". Not so great to be a soldier, though the myth is expertly maintained amid a plethora of patriotic slogans.

Since the advent of "peace" under the UN world leadership, we have had plenty of meaningless wars and a lot of money spent on military equipment, and our "elites" have pretty well consolidated their power. Of course we will always need some little rogue nations, or some larger scale wars to make the world safe for democracy, or whatever the convenient slogan may call for. . . . bread and milk. . . . just so long as they can get us all worked up to kill one another for some reason. . . . .

the war on terrorism has a definition something to the effect that whatever scares the elites will be called "terrorism", and peasants with pikes huddled under their castle walls being called "terrorists" even though all they are demanding is a few crumbs of bread. . . . .
 
I actually didn't know what the "Cobra Effect" is. . . .

The cobra effect occurs when an attempted solution to a problem actually makes the problem worse.[1][2] This is an instance of unintended consequence(s). The term is used to illustrate the causes of incorrect stimulation in economy and politics.[2] There is also a book with the same title by Horst Siebert (1938–2009), a German economist and professor.[2]
Origin[edit source | editbeta]



The Indian Cobra
The term cobra effect stems from an anecdote set at the time of British rule of colonial India. The British government was concerned about the number of venomous cobra snakes in Delhi.[3] The government therefore offered a bounty for every dead cobra. Initially this was a successful strategy as large numbers of snakes were killed for the reward. Eventually, however, enterprising persons began to breed cobras for the income. When the government became aware of this, the reward program was scrapped, causing the cobra breeders to set the worthless snakes free. As a result, the wild cobra population further increased. The apparent solution for the problem made the situation even worse.[2][4]
A similar incident occurred in Hanoi, Vietnam, under French colonial rule. The colonial regime created a bounty program that paid a reward for each rat killed.[3] To obtain the bounty, people would provide the severed rat tail. Colonial officials, however, began noticing rats in Hanoi with no tails. The Vietnamese rat catchers would capture rats, lop off their tails, and then release them back into the sewers so that they could procreate and produce more rats, thereby increasing the rat catchers' revenue.[5]
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobra_effect
 
I'm saying here guys, if they recruit me to the army because of this stupid Syrian war, I'm not gonna distinguish anyone, US, Iran, Syria, Russian or whatever soldiers, whoever comes at me I will shoot at them until they shoot me dead. I'm not gonna fight their war but will fight against it.

Btw, I'm not blabbing here people, I haven't done my compulsory military service yet and as far as I know, if a state of war occurs here in Turkey, our deferment of service gets cancelled and I would get drafted immediately.

Anyway if a Syria war begins and I no longer post here anymore, know that this is what happened to me. Just make a RIP ECTYA thread and put a freedom song into it for me.
 
The Cobra Effect, if anyone is interested, is a term I am loosely applying to a scenario of government action having the opposite effect of what is intended. Somewhere in India in the past , the British wanted to decrease the population of Cobras, so they paid a bounty for dead cobras. The result was that Cobras became more abundant, as people bred cobras for the bounties.
 
MoreFeasts said:
The Cobra Effect, if anyone is interested, is a term I loosely applying to a scenario of government action having the opposite effect of what is intended. Somewhere in India in the past , the British wanted to decrease the population of Cobras, so they paid a bounty for dead cobras. The result was that Cobras became more abundant.
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I think this will have a very bad fall out.

USA (and rumored allies: Britain, Germany, France, Canada, Australia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar & United Arab Emirates) strike Syria.

Syria, Iran and Hezbollah strike Israel and western targets in the middle east.

Israel and western parties strike back at Syria, Hezbollah and Iran.

Hamas and Hezbollah attack Israel. War is declared..

Spiral, spiral, spiral
 
MoreFeasts said:
Cobra Effect applied to Geopolitics.

When America says "don't use chemical weapons, or America will get involved"
does this increase or decrease the likelihood of the use of chemical weapons?
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As for the original question. I think it decreases the use of chemical weapons and dramtically increases the use of conventional weapons.
 
Stoked said:
As for the original question. I think it decreases the use of chemical weapons and dramtically increases the use of conventional weapons.
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The problem you're overlooking is the stupidity of being predictable in a world filled with provocateurs. . . . if you can contrive to set up some kind of chemical weapons or nerve agent "attack" on civilians, with the predictable reaction from the US of some stupid ostentatious use of high technology against stone age civilians somewhere on planet earth, with the resultant eternal hatred of local populations everywhere against the imperial monster superpower. . . . . every little cell of "change agents" on planet earth will we running that game. . . .

not to mention our own psy-op darkside /rogue agency projects. . . .
 
Enes CanTear You Apart said:
I'm saying here guys, if they recruit me to the army because of this stupid Syrian war, I'm not gonna distinguish anyone, US, Iran, Syria, Russian or whatever soldiers, whoever comes at me I will shoot at them until they shoot me dead. I'm not gonna fight their war but will fight against it.

Btw, I'm not blabbing here people, I haven't done my compulsory military service yet and as far as I know, if a state of war occurs here in Turkey, our deferment of service gets cancelled and I would get drafted immediately.

Anyway if a Syria war begins and I no longer post here anymore, know that this is what happened to me. Just make a RIP ECTYA thread and put a freedom song into it for me.
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That would suck. I found your way out though:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conscription_in_Turkey

In Turkey, compulsory military service applies to all male citizens from twenty to forty one years of age. Those who are engaged in higher education or vocational training programs prior to their military drafting are allowed to delay service until they have completed the programs or reach a certain age. The duration of the basic military service varies: for those without 4-year university degrees fifteen months as privates; for those with 4-year university degrees or higher either twelve months as reserve officers or six months as short-term privates.

Turkish citizens who reside outside Turkey and have worked for at least three consecutive years have the option to pay a certain fee (currently 10,000 EUR) to be exempt from mandatory military service. This required a fee of 5,112 EUR and a basic military training of twenty-one days prior to the new law that went into effect on 15 December 2011.

The Turkish military openly discriminates against homosexuals and bisexuals by barring them from serving in the military.At the same time, Turkey - in violation of its obligations under the European Convention on Human Rights - withholds any recognition of conscientious objection to military service. Some objectors must instead identify themselves as “sick” – and are forced to undergo what Human Rights Watch calls "humiliating and degrading" examinations to “prove” their homosexuality.

Women are not conscripted. However, they are permitted to become officers.
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Just go and ace the "I like dudes" test......
 
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babe said:
The problem you're overlooking is the stupidity of being predictable in a world filled with provocateurs. . . . if you can contrive to set up some kind of chemical weapons or nerve agent "attack" on civilians, with the predictable reaction from the US of some stupid ostentatious use of high technology against stone age civilians somewhere on planet earth, with the resultant eternal hatred of local populations everywhere against the imperial monster superpower. . . . . every little cell of "change agents" on planet earth will we running that game. . . .

not to mention our own psy-op darkside /rogue agency projects. . . .
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This is what I was getting at. There are probably any number of people in the world who would like to see the US or some proxy strike Syria, and might even cause a chemical attack, or the appearance of a chemical attack , to try to achieve those ends.
 
This is a great video. Enlightening and Entertaining.
[video=vimeo;71992133]https://vimeo.com/71992133
 
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Enes CanTear You Apart said:
Thanks, that's a brilliant idea. I like you dude, normally I'd say "no homo" but I need a partner man, you know what I mean...
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Lol
Repped hard (that should satisfy your desires for a bit)
 
The President wants to take a "shot across the bow" of Syria. Britian submitted a resolution to the UN security council condeming Syria's gov. and authorizing force. China and Russia got up and walked out of the meeting. France is readying its military to strike at Syria including deploying at least 1 warship to the mediteranean sea. Britian is redeploying air force assets to Cyprus for any military action against Syria. The US is sending warships to the Mediteranean. They also have 2 aircraft carriers and supports ships in the Straight of Hormuz. Israel has deployed gas masks to their populace, called up reservists and redeployed all three levels of its Iron Dome issles/rocket defense grid.

Russia, China, Syria and Iran have all warned against any strike on Syria. Russia is selling Syria advanced surface to air missles. Russia has deployed up to 12 warships to the mediteranean sea. Iran and Syria have threatened retaliation against Israel if Syria is attacked. North Korea has been attempting to send military supplies (small arms, ammo...) to Syria and at least on shippment was intercepted by Japan. Russia and China have threatened to veto any Security Council resolution on Syria.

So in short you have the U.S., France, Britian, Turkey and Israel redoplying military assets and preparing their militaries on one side. You have Russia, China, Syria, Iran and North Korea readying themselves on the other.

Japan, Australia, Canada and the govs of Saudia Arabia and Qatar have shown signs of support for the US side. Iraq, Hamas, Hezbollah and Egypt have shown signs of support for Syria.

Jordan is begging any one who will listen to leave them out of this. They have forbidden any military action by anyone to be launched from their territory.

You have countries from America, Europe, Asia and the middle east directly involved in this. Only Central and South America have not chimmed in/chosen sides that I have seen.

Very interesting and very worrisome.
 
^^^^^ Yup. Is it really even possible to step back now? Too much public hubris/rhetoric, too many sides taken, too many moving parts positioned to not have anything happen now it seems.
 
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