Devin Harris on Al Jefferson: Jazz fans will be surprised if they see him

[billyshelby]

Among the big men (I've omitted some who also shot better. Tyson Chandler and Joakim Noah, for example, since their offense is all garbage buckets) who had a better true shooting percentage for the entire season than Big Al had for his best two month stretch (.565) are:

Nene
Dwight
Dirk
Andrew Bynum
Kevin Love
Pau
Odom
Al Horford
Emeka
Paul Millsap
Kevin Garnett
Chris Bosh
Amare

That's 13 players who scored more efficiently for the entire season than Al did for his best two months.

Are you really this dense? My whole point was what players had a better TS% during Al's two month stretch of greatness. I said this clearly several times. What do you think you're accomplishing exactly?

 

[billyshelby]

I never said he was. What the ****?

You SAID he wasn't efficient during those two months. Are you going to admit Al was efficient during those two months? I'm waiting. But I'll assume you aren't and have some explanation that requires ME to prove he was despite his numbers. I'm in bizarro world.

 

[GVC]

I'm showing that even during his BEST stretch, he was worse than a lot more than 5 players over their whole season. That's an extremely strong statement. If you don't recognize that, you're a fool. Crunching the numbers for that exact time period for all those players would be extremely time consuming, and since, as usual, you're not willing to bring anything to the table, this will have to suffice (unless you can collect some data). The truth is that since this is true, it's almost a certainty that my weaker assertion is also true, and even more of a certainty that yours is ridiculously false.

If those were the players' averages for the whole season, they probably hovered around those averages month to month. It would be highly improbably that for those particular two months 9 of the listed players shot considerably worse than their season averages. Further, it would be just as likely that some players below that number for the season shot better during that stretch. Once you also include the players I omitted for various reasons, the question of whether you're right is downright ludicrous. You're wrong.

 

[GVC]

You SAID he wasn't efficient during those two months.

I never said that either.

 

[billyshelby]

I'm showing that even during his BEST stretch, he was worse than a lot more than 5 players over their whole season. That's an extremely strong statement. If you don't recognize that, you're a fool. Crunching the numbers for that exact time period for all those players would be extremely time consuming, and since, as usual, you're not willing to bring anything to the table, this will have to suffice (unless you can collect some data). The truth is that since this is true, it's almost a certainty that my weaker assertion is also true, and even more of a certainty that yours is ridiculously false.

If those were the players' averages for the whole season, they probably hovered around those averages month to month. It would be highly improbably that for those particular two months 9 of the listed players shot considerably worse than their season averages. Further, it would be just as likely that some players below that number for the season shot better during that stretch. Once you also include the players I omitted for various reasons, the question of whether you're right is downright ludicrous. You're wrong.

How do those numbers prove they were better than Al during that 2 month stretch? Al's final numbers were obviously much lower than those 2 months. The way you distort arguments doesn't fool anyone. You can figure Al's approximate numbers just based on his 54% FG average. They rank high on that list.

 

[GVC]

I calculated Al's TS% for the two month period. That's what the .565 number is. That list of players all did better than that on the whole season. Again, it's highly unlikely that at least 9 of those players, as well as all the players not on that list, were magically way worse during February and March. This shouldn't be too hard to understand.

Can you not read? Wow.

Is it safe to assume you're not going to address all the misrepresentations and flat out lies you've made about my posts in this thread?

Is it safe to assume that you're not going to look at any of the data yourself?

 

[billyshelby]

I calculated Al's TS% for the two month period. That's what the .565 number is. That list of players all did better than that on the whole season. Again, it's highly unlikely (I can't imagine there's more than a 1% chance) that at least 9 of those players, as well as all the players not on that list, were magically way worse during February and March. This shouldn't be too hard to understand.

Can you not read? Wow.

Is it safe to assume you're not going to address all the misrepresentations and flat out lies you've made about my posts in this thread?

Is it safe to assume that you're not going to look at any of the data yourself?

I'm not going to get lost in TS% arguments as the true worth of a player as I've said many times over and over. It's all you ever talk about like it's the only thing that matters. It's very rare a player can average 24 and 11 for any stretch, much less 2 months. Al has already done that in a shortened season on the TWolves. The guy Al was for 2 months last season is a rare player. But as I've said many times, you wouldn't know that if all you saw were boxscores. You're still trying to prove Al is bad based on your own limited idea that certain stats tell the whole worth of a player. Millsap, for example, couldn't average 24 and 11 if you told him to shoot every time he had the ball. He doesn't have the skill to do that.

 

[Deleted member 848]

 

[Deleted member 848]

Last I checked, a win in November is worth the same as a win in March.

Lol. Its a good thing you admitted this was a foolish thing to say afterwards.

Having crunched the numbers for stats against the top 4 Western Conference teams (since I know you only make baseless assertions), he scored at league average efficiency against the top 4 Western Conference teams last season, roughly in line with his post-all-star game numbers.

Its funny how you were giving me absolute hell a couple of weeks ago for not providing "proper" data by being .06 percent off, yet you choose the most absurd sample size of "elite teams" that Al Jefferson matched up against. So much for "intellectual honesty".

PS: as was mentioned in the prior post, not many players in the NBA can average 24/11 at 56.6%, ESPECIALLY given the manner in which Al gets these shots off, as well as the absurd supporting cast/ amount of injuries the team sustained during that time frame. If Al played like that all season, it'd be hard to not argue that he's easily a top 10 PF/C in the league, debatable as top 5. As far as the true shooting goes, I think it will always be a statistic that will work against Al Jefferson, due to his reluctancy to draw fouls, as well as his preference of scoring unassisted baskets as opposed to getting them off of pick and rolls, and so on. However, his ability to basically be a solo-scoring machine while possessing a low turnover rate is quite the unique talent, and can prove seriously beneficial in games where a team is slumping. I feel like if Al is paired up with a Power Forward that averages a relatively high FG% as well as being a decent defender, the man could really excel, and seriously contribute to a contending team.

However, as of now, we have a centre that has is known for lack-lustre defense, recent woes in terms of rebounding, a poor on-court awareness that contributes his lower assist totals and relatively inefficient shooting for such a prolific offensive centre. Despite this, he has shown a surprisingly good blocking ability, improvement in terms of assisting on the offensive end (there were several games where Al would pass it out of a double team to Hayward specifically; perhaps Al's reluctancy to pass out of double teams were because he'd look out to the perimeter and see Watson, Bell, and CJ (....shudder)). I don't expect him to ever be Boris Diaw or an Andrei Kirilenko in terms of interior passing around the paint, but his trending openness to pass out of double teams to players like Hayward is all really Id like to see from the guy. Couple this with hopefully a desire for him to become more familiar with such a highly structured offense, and hopefully these report of him working on agility contribute to him to not be so lead-footed on the defensive end, and we might have something here.

Ideally Id love 18/11/2 and much better defense off of rotations and switches. However, I would still be content with 21/10/2 and half-decent defending, which to me seems like a likely estimate for whenever next season is.

 

[sepanol]

I'm not going to get lost in TS% arguments as the true worth of a player as I've said many times over and over. It's all you ever talk about like it's the only thing that matters. It's very rare a player can average 24 and 11 for any stretch, much less 2 months. Al has already done that in a shortened season on the TWolves. The guy Al was for 2 months last season is a rare player. But as I've said many times, you wouldn't know that if all you saw were boxscores. You're still trying to prove Al is bad based on your own limited idea that certain stats tell the whole worth of a player. Millsap, for example, couldn't average 24 and 11 if you told him to shoot every time he had the ball. He doesn't have the skill to do that.

You actually started these statistical arguments by imposing that 24 11 54% are magical numbers which aren't (if not for the whole season). If you are dreaming Big Al is one of the elite big man in this league, wake up already because he is not. He may be slightly better player than Millsap but obviously he isn't worth that much considering his salary.

Millsap is taking many more jump shots and he is still more efficient. Millsap is doing his best with his undersized body because he knows how to play this game, but Big Al, he can't fulfill his potential for 7 years. And after his 7th year, i dont know many players who makes a great leap and become a completely different player.

 

[Brown Notes]

A few questions,

Is freaking harris and jefferson our vets to lead the team here ? Hayward would be a much better leader even right now than the sum of those two.

Obviously you value youth over experience. The clear answer is of course yes, Harris and Jefferson are clearly better players and NBA leaders to this point over guys like Hayward(Who I love BTW). You also are glossing over the point I made regarding rooks needing time to get their bodies and game into NBA shape.

No one will complain about Ty Corbin if we dont make it to playoffs with bunch of young players.

Wrong. Everybody will complain about a losing season. This is Utah. FFS guy, nobody is going to just jolly about waiting for the chrysalis. In the meantime Corbin will of course be under an extreme amount of fire. This is not an environment with which to create a winning culture.

GSW pick isnt guaranteed to be on this year, its top 8 protected. So the better pick we get the better assets we have(We can use two lottery picks in a good trade and get a better veteran as well). Otherwise, why Oklahoma didnt say, well we got Durant and Westbrook, lets get some vets and make it to playoffs, they just waited the right players, the right time and they got Harden the next year as a very good complemantary piece.

There you go assuming high picks = better team. The reality is that there is already borderline too much youth on the team as it is. When you try to develop too many players at the same time a lot of them will end up succeeding on other teams. If you got your wish the chances of Kanter actually being developed and succeeding for the Utah Jazz will decrease.


Are you mixing Harris and Jefferson with Duncan and Nash or what? So they are gonna stay and lead our team? To what? Getting our *** kicked in the first round ? or not even making to playoffs?

Again you are deliberately confusing yourself. No I don't confuse AJ with Duncan. I do understand the difference between an established veteran and a raw rookie. The established players will provide the Head Coach with the ability to establish and offensive and defensive identity. Rookies do not do that.

You should come with stronger arguments instead of sticking your mind up to Kanter vs Jefferson discussion and trying to convince me with your shallow ideas.

Basically nonsense.

Btw Kanter is 3rd pick, not 33rd. So he has to start (in normal conditions like except being loaded with bunch of big guys) and if he doesnt perform well, he has to fight to earn his spot back. He already MUST have with lots of credit in that sense. But guys like you will probably start bitching about him from the first min, ohhh he got rejected, he sucks, he is not athletic at all, Jefferson is better, he scored 35 points avg in the sunday games we played last year.... blablabla

And here it is again. Kanter Kanter Kanter. YOU ARE WRONG. Kanter is not going to be a great player in his first year, maybe not even 2. Believe me, we all get that you love your guy. It is great that a Turkish man was drafted so high. Good for you. I like your country too. I hope that Turkey continues to be an example of success. But Kanter is going to take 2-4 years in the NBA to get close to his potential. In the meantime the Jazz have a player who is not only better right now but has a great attitude and will in all likelihood be willing to teach the young man things he has never seen.

I really don't mind you getting excited about your player. Just stop it with trying to put him in an unrealistic light.

 

[sepanol]

Everyone who thinks Big Al is really an amazing player that every coach would like to see in his team or who could be the first, even second option in a contender, please wake up from your dream. And dont hide behind unnecessary "you are a Kanter homer" statements. We gotta face the truth here, we didn't have a very good post player in the last couple of years (i dont know before 5 years ago how was it). Boozer was overrated and right now he isnt overrated because everyone saw how he sucks after he went to a system which isn't trying to make him as efficient as possible like we did. Memo is a good big man with different skills but he isn't good enough as well. Millsap is a perfect team player and i would love to see him in this team until end of his career, but he can't be the starting PF in a contender. Jefferson is a completely different story. He has some skills, so you can't say he is bad but he got paid a lot more than what he deserves and his defense completely sucks. (Dont come up with blocking stats then it means Javale McGee and Josh Smith are good defenders too but they are not)

At least right now, even if we arent sure with anything yet, we have Favors and Kanter, who are 3rd picks for the last years (as we never had a top pick big man for a long long time). Instead of getting stuck with players who proved they aren't franchise players, lets better support the young players who has that potential.

I don't tell this because i am a homer of Kanter, but believe or not, right now he is the most key player in the team to decide if we are gonna be a contender in future or not. We have lots of expectations from Hayward but he isn't a Kobe we know that, thats why we need two good players on the back court to play together with him. Favors has amazing potential but we know that he isn't a born scorer. Here it makes Kanter the first scoring option in the future, and you can't just go into the court and dominate everyone by scoring 30 night in and night out when you are a 19 yrs old kid who didn't play professional ball for the last 2 years. So that means this guy deserves some support and patience. I dont expect anyone to treat him like he is gonna be next Malone but even the fact that he is the 3rd pick is enough to show that he deserves some credit.

You shouldn't give Kanter more support than he deserves, but at least you shouldn't be skeptical when someone from Turkey backs him up, because i am sure, if Derrick Williams was drafted, he wouldn't have had the need of any international supporters.