Winning awards is about one's accomplishments and the general context, ie who else is there, what they have done this year, their reputation, etc. For Gobert the firs part was a problem with all his injuries, but with what the Jazz have been doing lately, the box is ticked if he avoids an injury in the last 10/12 games and the Jazz don't collapse.
Now for the second criteria, which is very often decisive : Oftentimes a player will win an award because "it's his turn"... Kawhi is out, Green won it last year hasn't been as impressive, giving to KD or AD whereas their biggest achievements are on Offense would be a bit weird. It is very possible that many voters just think "yeah it's Gobert's turn anyway".
So my take is that if he doesn't get injured and the Jazz don't collapse, ie go something like 8-4 in their last 12 games, he will win it.
Now for the second criteria, which is very often decisive : Oftentimes a player will win an award because "it's his turn"... Kawhi is out, Green won it last year hasn't been as impressive, giving to KD or AD whereas their biggest achievements are on Offense would be a bit weird. It is very possible that many voters just think "yeah it's Gobert's turn anyway".
So my take is that if he doesn't get injured and the Jazz don't collapse, ie go something like 8-4 in their last 12 games, he will win it.