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Following Potential 2025 Draftees

SoberasHotRod said:
I would like more picks in 2026, but not sure Indiana is a team to bet against? I guess there is a Turner question coming up there.
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I want to try and use that pick as the swap median with a western conference team. I think Indiana... in a weak *** east... that's gonna be in the 20s under like 85% of the scenarios.

But say you turn around and offer the 2026 Indiana pick in a swap with Denver/LA/Dallas/Minny... a team that thinks they are making the playoffs and is a little desperate... you might be able to finesse that pick to be a good pick in a draft that seems to be pretty good.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I want to try and use that pick as the swap median with a western conference team. I think Indiana... in a weak *** east... that's gonna be in the 20s under like 85% of the scenarios.

But say you turn around and offer the 2026 Indiana pick in a swap with Denver/LA/Dallas/Minny... a team that thinks they are making the playoffs and is a little desperate... you might be able to finesse that pick to be a good pick in a draft that seems to be pretty good.
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Like lets just say the Lakers come to us offering a 2026 swap with the Indiana pick, 2031 unprotected, Knecht, and a 2032 swap for Kessler (Tony Jones said they offered more than they did for the Williams deal and the Jazz said no... so this is a lot but I think its realistic). The Lakers 2026 pick is not for sure in the 20s. There will be a few sad west teams next year and I'd love to bet against one or two.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
IDK about VJ, but Tre/Ace definitely are.
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I think most people know how I dislike Ace as a prospect, but even Tre/VJ have their warts. Tre isn't good at finishing at the rim, not good drawing FTs, wasn't that good at defense. VJ is very athletic but is a bit raw offensively for a guard. I'm thinking of putting Fears at 3, Queen at 4, Kas or Tre at 5 on my board. That's how equal I see 3-10. Its all a bit of a tossup for me and I would be happy drafting any of these guys (barring Ace). Maybe I just have low standards.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
I haven't looked up the numbers like KqWIN, but anectdotedly this happens every year. People get on here saying that NBA spacing is going to be so good for a player and then it never happens.

I'm pretty sure that improved NBA spacing is negated by improved NBA defense.
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NBA median rim Frequency: 22.8%
NBA median rim FG%: 70.0%
NBA median FTr: 24.3%

Power 6 median rim Frequency: 35.8%
Power 6 median rim FG%: 60.8%
Power 6 median FTr: 33.7%

The NBA does have better spacing. What people are missing is that the clogged toilet offense is clogged for a reason. Whether a player shots 20%, 30%, or 50% of his shots at the rim, he is getting that proportion of shots in an offense that emphasizes attacking the basket even if it results in bad shots at the rim. The NBA runs a more spaced offense where more shots are 3's, less shots are at the rim. The efficiency increases, but the rate does not.

If anyone still thinks that Rim Rate and FT Rate, the simple thing to do is just show where it happens in the NBA. Give real examples of when the improved spacing in the NBA resulted in more shots at the rim. Every single year we mention how this guy or that guy is going to benefit. I am not even saying that the players do not benefit from the NBA style, but the NBA style does not result in more shots at the rim or FT's.
 
KqWIN said:
NBA median rim Frequency: 22.8%
NBA median rim FG%: 70.0%
NBA median FTr: 24.3%

Power 6 median rim Frequency: 35.8%
Power 6 median rim FG%: 60.8%
Power 6 median FTr: 33.7%

The NBA does have better spacing. What people are missing is that the clogged toilet offense is clogged for a reason. Whether a player shots 20%, 30%, or 50% of his shots at the rim, he is getting that proportion of shots in an offense that emphasizes attacking the basket even if it results in bad shots at the rim. The NBA runs a more spaced offense where more shots are 3's, less shots are at the rim. The efficiency increases, but the rate does not.

If anyone still thinks that Rim Rate and FT Rate, the simple thing to do is just show where it happens in the NBA. Give real examples of when the improved spacing in the NBA resulted in more shots at the rim. Every single year we mention how this guy or that guy is going to benefit. I am not even saying that the players do not benefit from the NBA style, but the NBA style does not result in more shots at the rim or FT's.
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I'm guessing it wouldn't be possible/easy to segregate out this data for guards?
 
KqWIN said:
NBA median rim Frequency: 22.8%
NBA median rim FG%: 70.0%
NBA median FTr: 24.3%

Power 6 median rim Frequency: 35.8%
Power 6 median rim FG%: 60.8%
Power 6 median FTr: 33.7%

The NBA does have better spacing. What people are missing is that the clogged toilet offense is clogged for a reason. Whether a player shots 20%, 30%, or 50% of his shots at the rim, he is getting that proportion of shots in an offense that emphasizes attacking the basket even if it results in bad shots at the rim. The NBA runs a more spaced offense where more shots are 3's, less shots are at the rim. The efficiency increases, but the rate does not.

If anyone still thinks that Rim Rate and FT Rate, the simple thing to do is just show where it happens in the NBA. Give real examples of when the improved spacing in the NBA resulted in more shots at the rim. Every single year we mention how this guy or that guy is going to benefit. I am not even saying that the players do not benefit from the NBA style, but the NBA style does not result in more shots at the rim or FT's.
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I mean, idk how much of this is good data for what we are discussing because NBA teams shoot a ton more 3's than college teams do.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
I mean, idk how much of this is good data for what we are discussing because NBA teams shoot a ton more 3's than college teams do.
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It is the exact data that would determine if the percentage of shots at the rim and free throw rate gets higher or lower. More 3's means less shots elsewhere. It should not be surprising that the rim rate decreases. It should be surprising that a player shoots more at the rim in the NBA when they shoot more 3's. This is why I have said over and over that these two numbers get lower, not higher. Why would you shoot more at the rim or FT line in a league where that shoots less?

But like I said, if you disagree with anything. Just look at the players themselves. Pick 20 random players. See if their rim rate and free throw rate increased or decreased.
 
Last one... maybe... prolly not. Brooklyn offers 8, 19, and a 2029 NYK pick for 5 because Ace is left and they want him BAD. In this scenario Kon is also available at 8.
 
Hypothesis: The Duke players are being overrated based on playing with such good players and against such poor competition in the ACC.

(I'm not saying this is true, just something that should be considered)
 
Elizah Huge said:
To be quite honest trading down from 5 is about the last thing I’m looking to do right now.
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I'm just looking at everything. One of the most successful trades of Ainge's career is moving down because he found a guy he was higher on than a couple other teams. He also did it to Philly later in the draft another time and split the asset for a few different purposes.

I think there is also a scenario where a straight 5/Lauri for 2/contracts is available... and possibly you could do 6 (or 7-8) in place of 5 and get an additional asset.

I'm just looking at it all.
 
Basketball Novice said:
Yup, I would do it. Kon is great at 8.
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I think that package could get Brooklyn all the way up to #3 without us potentially. An unprotected 2029 Knicks pick is actually a really good asset imo. They are now fully leveraged into their current team and all the principles will be 31-32ish at that time and the team will be really expensive... plus playing Thibs minutes.

If I knew Kon was there I'd pull the trigger for sure.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
I don't hate Kon, but I just think he is very clearly in a different tier than the Ace/Tre/VJ.
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I'm gonna have to push back on this. Why can't Kon become just as effective as a player as Ace/Tre/VJ in the nba? He is definitely a more effective player in college according to the stats. The TS% is crazy good at 64%. His style looks unathletic and plodding but who's to say it won't work in the nba? Just because it looks simple and basic doesn't make it any less effective. He plays efficiently knowing exactly what he needs to do on the court. No hesitation, no catching and holding for iso, always just making great basketball plays or getting buckets.
 
Basketball Novice said:
I'm gonna have to push back on this. Why can't Kon become just as effective as a player as Ace/Tre/VJ in the nba? He is definitely a more effective player in college according to the stats. The TS% is crazy good at 64%. His style looks unathletic and plodding but who's to say it won't work in the nba? Just because it looks simple and basic doesn't make it any less effective. He plays efficiently knowing exactly what he needs to do on the court. No hesitation, no catching and holding for iso, always just making great basketball plays or getting buckets.
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He’s not saying he can’t be as effective. Kon has some troubling off the dribble and isolation numbers. They are bad bad.

Where as someone like Tre has super impressive numbers in that department.
 
SoberasHotRod said:
I don't hate Kon, but I just think he is very clearly in a different tier than the Ace/Tre/VJ.
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I have him in that group so its a little different for me. I'm sure fans would be pissed about moving back but if you believe in your guy and that he is there later then I think there could be some real value for a team willing to trade out of what is viewed as tier 3.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I have him in that group so it’s a little different for me. I'm sure fans would be pissed about moving back but if you believe in your guy and that he is there later then I think there could be some real value for a team willing to trade out of what is viewed as tier 3.
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I just don’t see having Kon in the same tier. Not as much upside.
 
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