The problem I have with Fears is that he is a ball dominant lead guard who has great iso scoring ability and mediocre playmaking, which is a near useless archtype if he doesnt actually turn into a star/superstar level player.
Then if I look at "the chance of him turning into a superstar" I just dont see it. He is 6'4 (in shoes) under-the-rim athlete who had 1.2 AST/TO and horrible off the dribble efficiency (including 44.5% at the rim).
In my eyes he is an inch taller Kyrie/Dame without their shooting and scoring touch.
It's more about the process with him than the raw numbers. I will give you the %s aren't great at the first glance but he created almost everything for his team. He practically backpacked Oklahoma to the tournament, by far their best player. He is definitely PG sized and that will be his only position. The bad at rim numbers are balanced out by the great foul drawing numbers. Despite the bad %s at the rim and at the 3, Fears still has a decent efficiency at 56% TS which is actually better than Tre's efficiency at 55% TS and Ace's efficiency at 53% TS.
That is the benefit of attacking the rim constantly and drawing fouls at a great rate. He gets turnovers because he is trying passes and dribbling into the teeth of packed in college defenses. I prefer that to guys who never attack the rim and constantly settle for contested jumpers.
His assist % is also quite good at 28.6%. For reference Kasparas is at 26%, Harper is at 27%, Tre is at 16.5%, Ace is at 8.3%, VJ is at 19.2%, Kon is at 15.7%
If I am using assist % wrong, someone can correct me but I think it's a decent measure of passing vision/ability.
I don't know how to look up off the dribble efficiencies but according to Barttorvik,
on non rim 2s :
Fears is 46%
Harper is 30%
Ace is 46%
Tre is 37%
VJ is 38.5%
He is quite deadly in the midrange, as good as Bailey. Of course, he doesn't shoot as many as Bailey.
Fear's FT% and Midrange% indicate he is an excellent shooter, just one who hasn't stretched it out to off the dribble 3s yet. Time and reps will get him there.
But, honestly it's not a numbers thing for me. Watching him play, it looks effortless for him. Most of his misses at the rim are just very ambitious layup attempts after he maneuvers through a bunch of defenders. He gets a little stronger or a little smarter on when to take those and he will improve. I realize I am probably extending some grace to Fears that I am not to Tre/Ace/VJ but Fear's looks to be a much more complete offensive player at a younger age.
He is a really young prospect (18) who is almost but not quite there yet. A little more growth in his overall game and he could hit in a big way.
I see almost 0% chance that Ace or Tre turn into central offensive players. They just don't have the overall offensive game required. I would place my bet on Fears.