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Following Potential 2025 Draftees

There are levels to this stuff. Ace being a little too jovial or saying wild things is not Cam being a dick and having a coach actively campaign against you. Along with the medical stuff.

I think Ace slides and I do think the Wiz/Nets/Pelicans would likely be happy to make a deal unless Wiz love Queen, and Nets and Pels I could see liking Fears... I wonder how far Kon could slide if teams decide he doesn't have enough upside.

I could see the Wiz offering 6 and 18 to move up a spot or two... I think they only have like one other extra pick down the road. Pels I could see the 2026 Indiana pick and 7... Nets have a bunch of picks so would 8, 19 (or one of the picks in the 20s), and a future pick get them where they need to go.

Hopefully Ainge does the thing where he maps out the draft board and can manipulate things if there is a good opportunity.
 
Ferguson_Mellochill said:
You can't trade back much for Kon or Fears. They might both go 6-8.
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It would be great if the Wiz were locked in on Queen. It would be phenomenal if Hornets reach for Khaman.

I just really wish I knew what Philly was thinking. I think the Hornets could be wary of taking Ace with Miller (wing who will operate in the mid range some) and Lamelo (who is already very unserious). I really think Philly/charlotte could go VJ/Tre in some order. I'd be happy to take Ace for ourselves or as a hostage if there are offers we like depending on how things fall out.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
There are levels to this stuff. Ace being a little too jovial or saying wild things is not Cam being a dick and having a coach actively campaign against you. Along with the medical stuff.

I think Ace slides and I do think the Wiz/Nets/Pelicans would likely be happy to make a deal unless Wiz love Queen, and Nets and Pels I could see liking Fears... I wonder how far Kon could slide if teams decide he doesn't have enough upside.

I could see the Wiz offering 6 and 18 to move up a spot or two... I think they only have like one other extra pick down the road. Pels I could see the 2026 Indiana pick and 7... Nets have a bunch of picks so would 8, 19 (or one of the picks in the 20s), and a future pick get them where they need to go.

Hopefully Ainge does the thing where he maps out the draft board and can manipulate things if there is a good opportunity.
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Jazz and Wizards could just swap picks if the Wizards want Ace and the Jazz want Fears. Washington would do that to prevent someone else from trading up with the Jazz for Ace. Jazz can't trade back more than a spot or two and get the next tier of player.
 
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I think the Wizards will try to move up from 18 to somewhere in the late lottery to get Queen.

I just don't see him going in the top 10, he's just too terrible defensively right now and you have to project him becoming an Embiid level shooter to make up for that.
 
Although it sucks we got ****ed out of Flagg or Harper at least we're in that tier for VJ, Bailey and Tre. I can live with any of them - all have their pluses and minuses and I feel there's a drop after 5.

My brain says Bailey and my heart says Tre though I don't think VJ or Bailey will be there at 5.

I also feel like Sorber will not go as high as some think in the draft - he's not very athletic and he isn't a stretch but he's going to be one of those guys who does all the right things for a team to win.
 
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Qman said:
Anyone have access to Kevin pelton’s projection for Tre Johnson? I believe it was really negative. Apparently he didn’t shoot well in high school?
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Pelton on Tre Johnson:

12.​

Top 100: No. 6
Stats: No. 30

Consensus: 2.4 WARP

Johnson's volume scoring is the kind of skill set that tends not to fare well in my projections. Usage is his only strength, while Johnson was well below average in terms of rebounding, steals and blocks. The swing skill is just how efficient Johnson can be as a scorer. He faired acceptably at the college level thanks to 40% 3-point shooting but was less effective in EYBL play. Johnson shot just 34% on 3s in the 2023 EYBL campaign.
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Locke brought up Beal as a comparison and I definitely can see that. Tre plays in college very similarly to Beal does in the NBA. But one thing we do have to remember the NBA is not the NCAA. If you look at the player Beal was in college, he was actually a lot more like VJ. It's hard to imagine that now, but Beal wasn't the shooter he was back then and he was much more of an athlete. The NBA is much different from the NCAA and is obviously much more difficult. I've been looking back at previous prospects and it's pretty interesting to see just how much (or how little) players change over time.
 
KqWIN said:
Locke brought up Beal as a comparison and I definitely can see that. Tre plays in college very similarly to Beal does in the NBA. But one thing we do have to remember the NBA is not the NCAA. If you look at the player Beal was in college, he was actually a lot more like VJ. It's hard to imagine that now, but Beal wasn't the shooter he was back then and he was much more of an athlete. The NBA is much different from the NCAA and is obviously much more difficult. I've been looking back at previous prospects and it's pretty interesting to see just how much (or how little) players change over time.
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Beal was considered a great shooter coming into college (which checks out because he was a high level shooter immediately in the NBA). Had a lot of Ray Allen comps but then came in a lot smaller than people expected.

So no, I really dont buy that Beal was closer to VJ than Tre.
 
I think Beal is a good high end outcome comp for Tre. Think he might be a better shooter and bigger but maybe less good with the ball than Beal was at his peak.
 
Saint Cy of JFC said:
Beal was considered a great shooter coming into college (which checks out because he was a high level shooter immediately in the NBA). Had a lot of Ray Allen comps but then came in a lot smaller than people expected.

So no, I really dont buy that Beal was closer to VJ than Tre.
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It's important to remember that we're comparing 2012 to 2025, so the scale on shooting is different. But on paper, absolutely closer to VJ. Beal was not a super usage player in college and he had great peripheral indicators. You could take that as the numbers don't matter, or you could say that some of the numbers would have indicated some change.

Anyways, the point I'm getting at is that players often play a lot different in the NBA and in different roles. It's not always the best to assume a play can/will play in the same he does in college.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I think Beal is a good high end outcome comp for Tre. Think he might be a better shooter and bigger but maybe less good with the ball than Beal was at his peak.
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I think he's more like Jamal Murray/Tyler Herro in the sense that he's lacking the physicality that Beal has/had. I'm a big believer that indicators are all intertwined and are useful outside in other contexts. For example, Beal was a good rebounder/stocks/FTr guy in college. Those are not things you would say have been big strengths in his career, but I do think it speaks to Beal's general athleticism. Beal is who he is because he's a killer shooter, but I think that athleticism that showed up in the peripheral numbers is absolutely a part of that.
 
Locke took a goodly amount of time today to talk about Tre Johnson again. Bodes well for the Jazz thinking they can take him. I don't agree with the Beal comp. Beal was a combo guard at Fla. who was initially thought of as someone who could play point guard. Beal doesn't have Tre's size/length/elevation, or footspeed, or shooting off of movement. Beal is all change-of-pace off the dribble. If you want to back off Ray Allen or Devin Booker as a comp for Tre, you can look at Klay Thompson just due to the high, quick release and ability to shoot off of movement and relocations. A bigger downgrade would be someone like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.

It's interesting to me that Locke hasn't said anything about Ace Bailey in the past week. Maybe the assumption is that he's going #3 still.
 
I'm also just not a fan of dismissing "he doesn't go to the rim" because he did it twice in the same possession and then made an incredible pass the next possession. Be the equivalent of saying there are no concerns with shooting because a guy took two three, missed them, and then dunked all over a player the next possession.
 
KqWIN said:
I think he's more like Jamal Murray/Tyler Herro in the sense that he's lacking the physicality that Beal has/had. I'm a big believer that indicators are all intertwined and are useful outside in other contexts. For example, Beal was a good rebounder/stocks/FTr guy in college. Those are not things you would say have been big strengths in his career, but I do think it speaks to Beal's general athleticism. Beal is who he is because he's a killer shooter, but I think that athleticism that showed up in the peripheral numbers is absolutely a part of that.
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I agree... I can see a lot of Herro there. I think he has more length so should be able to do more... but as noted his rebound and stock numbers ain't good.
 
Handlogten's Heros said:
I think Beal is a good high end outcome comp for Tre. Think he might be a better shooter and bigger but maybe less good with the ball than Beal was at his peak.
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at least at this stage of their respective careers, Tre seems to be a better prospect. bigger (by a significant amount), better shooter, similar athletically, and as far as ballhandling - we have to go by memory (and it's hard to measure anyway) so it's tough, but Tre had a higher assist rate and a lower turnover rate than Beal which is at least somewhat indicative of what they can do with the ball.

Beal did get to the ft line more often, and was a pretty elite rebounder for a 6'3" guard. Beal was a high stocks guy in college, but those things really didn't translate. but he did learn to be a playmaker. Beal is actually a good case study of who one is in college isn't necessarily who they will be in the league - for good or bad - especially for these one and dones.
 
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