I only compared him to Kyrie because when I watch Fears play, he kinda reminds me of him (in a positive way).Yea, currently he isn't elite by the numbers. Thats where the projection comes in. He isn't an elite scorer now but he is on the road to becoming one.
I project Fears to be a great 3 level scorer and playmaker, better than guys like De'Aaron Fox and Trae Young. It's a massive bar to get over but I think he has the skills to do it.
What do great scorers look like when they are early in their development? Are great scorers just born with the ability to shoot 40% from NBA 3 range? Obviously not. There is a learning process that takes place with the various basketball skills including shooting and dribbling. Some skills are more ingrained and other are more learned.
Fears is in that process right now, like all young players. And he decided to challenge college a year early in his development. So yea things look a bit unrefined.
I judge the essential parts to be there, namely the ability to attack the rim and draw fouls, the elite dribble, the physicality despite his size, the clutch shotmaking under pressure, the natural passing vision. What he is deficient in, the off the dribble 3s and the finishing at the rim, can be worked on.
For the comparison, Fears has a bit more athleticism than Kyrie. It's not to the level of Ja or any of the hyper athletic guards but he isn't completely outclassed either. It would be in the B to B+ range.
If your comparing all PGs to Kyrie then I'll just let you know now. No PG is going to match Kyrie's college production. He was insane in college even though he only played 10 games or something like that. The stats themselves look ridiculous. If the bar is College Kyrie, then your never drafting a PG high. Harper certainly doesn't meet that bar but maybe you exclude him because he is a 6'6" combo. Maybe Ja was close? But he played at Murray State and was a sophomore. Maybe your just out on the PG archetype in general.
Essentially, Fears has the right stuff but is a bit earlier on the development curve than someone like Ja or any guards who came out as upperclassman. Would I prefer to see better production and percentages from Fears, of course. But, he decided to come out into the draft now. We have to judge him as an 18 year old and project the rest of the development. And I look highly upon what skills he has and am very positive about his future development.
Saying Fears gets over Trae Young offensively is a massive reach since Young was absolutely dominant at college averaging 27.7 points and 8.7 assists in Big-12 and winning every award that year. Projecting Fears to become better is a ridiculous overprojection. Young was also one and done who got drafted as a 19 year old. Besides Young is also the perfect example of why a ball dominant guard who can get past guys, draw fouls and touch paint at will isnt really elevating his team if he is the #1 guy. If your best player is a small guard he will get RELENTLESSLY attacked on defense to wear him down. That will either hurt his offense or then he gives up points on the other end. Steph is the only guy who has been able to overcome that hurdle but he is NOT ball dominant on offense and his best abilities are NOT the same as Fears' or Young's.
Iso guards have lost so much value over the past few years with the modern ball rotation offense that aims to get 3s and dunks. I just dont buy them as #1 options anymore. SGA is definitely an exception but if there ever is a guy who you can realistically project to become SGA he is going to be drafted #1. SGA is also super long and much taller than other ball dominant guards (sans Luka, who is another example that works but too different to be a comp for Fears). Every year you can find guys from 7-12 range who "could become SGA" and I'm not interested in that gamble if I'm picking 5.
The way I see it none of VJ, Tre and Fears have realistic #1 on a championship contender upside. Ace has but the chance he reaches it is far too low to dramatically impact my opinion of him. For #2 upside I'd rather pick a versatile prospect with size, length, athleticism and shooting. Fears loses to most of the other 3 in those areas.. and again he HAS to have the ball a lot to use his best traits,