Its Time to Tank

[Saint Cy of JFC]

If a team finishes 9/10 are they in the lottery no matter what? Or do the play-in results determine that?

Play in determines it

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I just hope we’re bad enough to grab Keyonte George.. Brandon Miller is out of the question now,

Actually think we got a higher chance at Miller than George.

I think George will go between 5-8. I dont think Utah will get below 9th. You can jump into the top 4, you cant jump to 5th/6th/7th/8th

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I said "most tankers see draft as the only way". I didnt say all. Ive heard that argument from you though, at least in regards to getting top level players.

Only is the key word friend.

 

[Korisfani]

The problems with tankers:
1) Pretending that tanking has zero cost.
2) Believing that tanking from now on is super easy - everyone else will simply start winning and we'll just go 2-19.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Ok who is arguing that tanking is not a sound rebuilding strategy?

Many have mentioned how high picks bust all the time or how no tanking teams ever win titles etc… then they work to disqualify several teams that absolutely tanked and won titles. There are zero guarantees… you play the best odds you can get… and the odds favor drafting very high. Even if the mid lotto odds are pretty long.

Also about the first part:


I could dig dozens of posts saying we need to go to as low as possible or that draft is the only way to get stars... but I would rather stop this whole discussion.

The draft is the primary way we will get star talent. That could be in the middle, end, or beginning of the first round… sometimes even the second. You have to acknowledge the history of the franchise. I’d say most protankers understand this… having a high pick is the most reliable way for us to get star talent.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The problems with tankers:
1) Pretending that tanking has zero cost.
2) Believing that tanking from now on is super easy - everyone else will simply start winning and we'll just go 2-19.

The problems with antitankers is

1 exaggerating the costs of tanking and not acknowledging both the developmental benefits and draft assets that come from it.
2- believing that if you lose 3-4 extra games and only get to the 8th best odds that the tank was pointless.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

The only thing that makes tanking hard is players.

Jazz would probably love to rest Lauri half the rest of the games. Lauri and his agent would not.

They want to further his career stats, strengthen his case for an All-NBA team, create value for his next contract, and just generally wants to compete.

Jazz could probably force it onto him, but then you fracture the relationship. You could play complete scrubs (Balmero/Udoka) but Lauri would probably end up feeling some kind of way because ultimately it;s going to make him look worse.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The only thing that makes tanking hard is players.

Jazz would probably love to rest Lauri half the rest of the games. Lauri and his agent would not.

They want to further his career stats, strengthen his case for an All-NBA team, create value for his next contract, and just generally wants to compete.

Jazz could probably force it onto him, but then you fracture the relationship. You could play complete scrubs (Balmero/Udoka) but Lauri would probably end up feeling some kind of way because ultimately it;s going to make him look worse.

We won’t and should not do that. We should not “shut down” anyone. That is something that should be punished by the league.

To be clear where I stand… players and coaches should not tank. It’s a front offices job. If this front office didn’t make us bad enough to get a top 10 pick it’s not because they failed… it’s because they had so much success with their other acquisitions and hires.

 

[HermanG]

Only is the key word friend.

Yes. And I provided a post where you used that exact word.. right?

 

[Korisfani]

not acknowledging both the developmental benefits and draft assets that come from it.

There are no developmental benefits to tanking. Draft assets, yes, naturally.

To be clear where I stand… players and coaches should not tank. It’s a front offices job. If this front office didn’t make us bad enough to get a top 10 pick it’s not because they failed… it’s because they had so much success with their other acquisitions and hires.

So... the tank is over? Because there's nothing for the FO to do anymore, right?

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Yes. And I provided a post where you used that exact word.. right?

Did you? Also it’s the assumption that when I say “the draft is the primary or essentially the only way” we get star talent is that means I think that only includes getting a top 4 pick. That is not my position… you can get a star many places in the draft but overwhelmingly the odds of getting a star increase in the top 5. We will have to get multiple lucky breaks to build a contender. Boosting those odds in one area does not mean that is the “only” area.

 

[underdog]

It’s not hard to get to 8ish… and while it’s long odds… it’s like 10x better odds.

Play in experience is cute… has not helped the Hornets or Spurs the last two years. Winning 3-4 extra games costs us 10x odds 4-6 spots in the lotto… I will sacrifice the play in experience happily to get those odds. The assumption that we won’t get lucky or that 4-6 spots in the lotto is not meaningful is part of this argument that gets frustrating. Is it meaningful to have a 6% shot at 1B vs. a .5% chance at 1B? What kind of premium would you pay to have the 6% shot?

How many of the remaining games do you think we need to lose to get to the 8th lottery spot? It’s tough because for us to gain lottery ground, the other lottery teams need to win every time we lose. And sure 6% chance is better than 0.5% change, but idk it’s so low. When I mentioned play-in experience, I was thinking Kessler, Agbaji, and Sexton, and also Lauri although he already has that experience from last season. I obviously want as good a lottery position as possible, but at this point looking at our odds I’m ok to let this thing just shake out. I do hope though that Danny tries to move up in the draft if there’s a talented, playmaking PG in sight he might be able to snatch.