Let's talk about Quin

[LogGrad98]

I have been thinking about this a lot. Is Quin really the right coach for us, or has he lost the team? Does he do enough to drive momentum shifts in the game? Does he have his players' respect enough to demand action and get it?

I don't think so.

Someone who can get at the advanced stats better than me can probably find out, but it seems he is really bad at things like play calls out of a timeout, lineup adjustments, and in-game adjustments to what the other team is doing. More often than not it seems that timeouts end in a failed attempt or a turnover. He doesn't seem to be able to steer the team and get them to do anything different during the game either. Multiple timeouts spent to get the team going or make adjustments, yet nothing really changes on the floor until the players just decide to get their asses moving it seems like. Sometimes his rotations seems not just weird, but not well-planned out, although I don't think this is quite as big a deal. And he seems to defer a lot to Donovan when Donovan has proven he isn't the best decision-maker in the clutch. I know "clutch" isn't a thing, but that is more about shooting. In my eyes, "clutch" players are those that handle the pressure well and, more often than not, make the right decision in games going down to the wire. That isn't Donovan. Yet Quin still defers to forced up 3s with multiple defenders all over him rather than a few cuts and sharp passed to get the ball to a Bogey or whoever else can get a truly open shot. Is this Quin just letting the play flow, or was it his actual play call. "Ok guys, I want 4 of you to go stand still on the 3 pt line, Rudy you stand just outside the lane on the baseline. Don, you do your magic. No one else move so he has plenty of space to create. Ready...break!" Sounds stupid.

For the record, I think he does well with big adjustments, like at hafltime. But before that, during the half that just ended, if the other team figures something out, well we can just plan on watching our lead evaporate because nothing will change until halftime.

I do not think Quin is the genius tactician he was always made out to be.

So, is he the guy? If not, is there a guy out there? Does it even matter?

Discuss...

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Heavy 3pt shooting teams are usually not going to be the best clutch teams. Too much variance in makes/misses.

That being said, Utah has been a top 10 clutch team by net rating for the last 6 years.

The room for improvement is in clutch rebounding and clutch defense. Neither of these things are awful, but they could be improved.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

I'm not particularly high on Quin after the last two playoff collapses, but I think he's a good regular season coach. I think we have a veteran team that is past the days of, "Wake Up" where they will respond to that type of motivation. Quin plays the statistics, which is a good strategy for a long regular season, but sometimes isn't great for individual games or against specific players. For example conceding long twos might be the best strategy over a season, but might hurt you in an individual game.

As far as statistics that refute some of your assumptions:
- Fairly recently Andy Larsen shared some stats showing that we are the #2 or #3 team out of a time out (this was posted in one of the threads). I was blown away by this statistic, but I guess we tend to dwell on the negatives and forget the positives.
- We are basically tied for the top net rating in the league. So we have beaten teams by as much as any other team in the league. The NBA is not easy and teams making runs is typical, even though it sometimes feels catastrophic within a game.

As for clutch that definitely needs to be looked at. Donovan admitting recently to not running a play quite the way Quin had drawn up (can't find the quote), and so it's hard to say how much is on Quin vs the players. Looking at NBA.com we are currently 4th in offensive rating, 15th in defensive rating, and 8th in net rating in the clutch. Those numbers are ok, but should be much better. Looking at the best teams in the league their clutch numbers are actually improved vs their regular numbers. I would guess the clutch is when they are the most locked in and playing their best. For example Phoenix goes from a 110ORTG and 103DRTG normally to 133ORTG and 84DRTG in the clutch. The Jazz go from a 117ORTG and 106DRTG normally to a 123 ORTG and 108 DRTG in the clutch.

I don't know about the clutch though. A lot of that tends to be luck and isn't sustainable over time. For example we were a much better clutch team than Phoenix last year. The #1 clutch team last year was Portland and they are 21st this year. Teams have hit some pretty incredible shots over us in the clutch this year, and we have missed some fairly easy ones.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Playing with the "Clutch" settings and the Jazz are probably worse than their basic setting "clutch" stats suggest.

Also, teh Royce haters will love this, but Royce hasn't made a single field goal in the last 5 minutes of a close game all season. (He's only taken 6 shots though)

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Also, having or not having Mike Conley might make a huge difference. The biggest adjustment might just be putting the ball in Mike's hands more (just based off looking at individual clutch stats).

Conley has a +48 net rating in clutch minutes, but has only played in 11 clutch games vs 15 for the regular starters. He has 6 assist in 39 minutes with only 1 turnover

Bojan only has two rebounds in 50 minutes of clutch game time. He shoots in well and score, but that is basically all he does. He also fouls a lot, 8 fouls in 50 minutes.

Donovan only has 7 assist and 5 turnovers in 48 minutes of clutch game time

 

[homeytennis]

Quin is a system guy and if a player is not in the hard rotation they sit. My first memory of watching NBA basketball was the Sonics coached by Bill Russell and Lenny Wilkins. Both coaches won NBA Championships as a coach and they both believed in playing the full roster for injury prevention and a way to build team chemistry. Two ways to skin the cat I guess.

 

[Gameface]

Let's talk about Quin, baby
Let's talk about you and me
Let's talk about all the offence
and the defence that can be

Let's talk about Quin
Let's talk about Quin
Let's talk about Quin
Let's talk about Quin

Let's talk about Quin for now
to all the people at home or in the crowd
he keeps coming up anyhow
Don't be coy, avoid, or make void the topic
Cuz that ain't gonna stop it
Now we talk about Quin on the radio and video shows
Many will know any shot goes

Let's talk about how it is and how it could be
How it was, and of course, how it should be
Those who think he sucks, have a choice
Pick up the remote, press pause, or turn the TV off
Will that stop us, fanz? I doubt it

Alright then, c'mon, Quin
Let's talk about Quin, baby
Let's talk about you and me
Let's talk about all the offence
and the defence that can be

Let's talk about Quin
Let's talk about Quin
Let's talk about Quin
Let's talk about Quin

Hot to chuck, make any team's eyes pop
Jazz use any shot, even ones they don't got
Fans drool like fools, but then again they're only homers
The shot was a hit because Vivint was boomin'

Don, Mike, Rudy, crazy Jordan
No shot they take was ever common
Opponents might be great, men with skills
LeBron, Giannis, no one was too great to score on

Or even dunk on
The chip Quin says is next on his list
and believe me, you
it's as good as true
Their ain't a team alive that Jazz can't get next to

They had the win in the bag so they should have been glad
but they were bad, and sad and fouling mad
Thinking about the chip they never had
No D, just O, followed next by a chuck and a choke
I guess that last win was dope

Let's talk about Quin, baby
Let's talk about you and me
Let's talk about all the offence
and the defence that can be

Let's talk about Quin
Let's talk about Quin
Let's talk about Quin
Let's talk about Quin

Jazzfanz, ALL the Jazzfanz
Post it now, help me out
Come on, all the Jazzfanz
Let's talk about Quin, alright

Yo Mods, I don't think you're gonna lock this post down
And why not? Everybody talkin' 'bout Quin
I mean every Jazzman should be making clutch shots
Come on, how many guys you know make clutch shots?

Let's talk about Quin, baby
Let's talk about you and me
Let's talk about all the offence
and the defence that can be

Let's talk about Quin
Let's talk about Quin
Let's talk about Quin
Let's talk about Quin

Let's talk about Quin, baby
Let's talk about you and me
Let's talk about all the offence
and the defence that can be

Let's talk about Quin
Let's talk about Quin
Let's talk about Quin
Let's talk about Quin

 

[infection]

I think it's definitely a quandary. I think Quin has gotten 80-85% of stuff right and I think he's done a great job. Of course it's hard to know what a comparison is and perhaps other coaches would be able to recognize the same things and get us this same distance, so I don't know. The biggest thing is that Quin believes in Rudy, perhaps in a way many other coaches may not. I'm not entirely certain, but I am confident that Quin knows Rudy's value and he's built a system around it. The challenging part becomes knowing the limitations of that system (i.e. not adapting and leaving Rudy in no-man's land while the other team destroys us, or encouraging the absolutely dismal perimeter defensive strategies when they're not working and expecting Rudy to be the bailout guy). But that other 15-20% is killer, and I think an even halfway competent coach would be able to recognize and respond with at least half of that 15-20% and I believe that would be enough to take us over the top. This is why I made a thread this summer about the biggest off-season acquisition really being Quin adding a veteran coach to the staff that he'd listen to. He defers to Donovan way too much, particularly in closing. I think this is a personality thing for him as he does the same with JC when it's not working, and he gives Don that latitude as a way of showing that he believes in him. I don't think he can keep us focused and I don't think he keeps us calm when the **** hits the fan. That's why we couple our poor defensive efforts with the most baffling offensive lulls to create these catastrophic meltdowns. The pattern is there where you can't say we're just being biased by a couple outliers that were really painful. The problem is that we disguise those behind "well we weren't healthy" when the underlying flaws were a genuine part of the team and we're all colluding together to pretend it's not a big deal. As has been mentioned previously, his understanding of moneyball is also suspect. He appears to feel he has to execute the moneyball strategy with exactness to get the most probable outcome, but never recognizes the new variables that get introduced that completely change the equation, and then seems baffled of how it could ever be conceivably possible that Mann could shoot so well above his averages in a small sample set.

I guess maybe what he would be good at is being the super assistant coach who is the brains behind everything and the real mastermind, but with a different ***-kicking face who yells at everyone being the head coach. Kinda like if we had Sloan as HC with Quin as the assistant, where Quin develops the game plan and everything else but Jerry would manage the yelling and the minute-to-minute stuff.

Basically Quin is a Gobert. He needs a Mitchell. Someone who isn't as important to anyone who's paying attention, but someone who appears to be the leader.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Quin is fine... I think we do have an overall toughness issue and I think part of it may come from Quin.

Was listening to another podcast and they described their frustration with Tobias Harris as "he looks like he plays basketball not to upset anyone". I would use that to describe a lot of our players and Quin. There are times Quin doesn't lose his **** on the refs and he should... there are times Quin should lay into the players and he doesn't... just feels like we are a little too nice and just want to do things right ya know... we aren't here to make trouble. Its why the nights Hassan is being an agitator and giving hard fouls it is so refreshing.

Contrast that with Jae Crowder and Marcus Smart who look like they are constantly looking to start ****.... now there are lines and it can quickly turn into a clown show... see Morris twins, Demarcus Cousins and Pat Bev (sometimes). It comes back to me saying last year we needed an *******... Hassan was a nice step forward in that direction. We need that perimeter defender that plays with a little more force and it would be preferable if that person was a little "edgey". It can't be forced or fake tough guy stuff (well its all kinda fake tough guy stuff but you know what I mean). Its why I love guys like Jae'Sean Tate.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I think it's definitely a quandary. I think Quin has gotten 80-85% of stuff right and I think he's done a great job. Of course it's hard to know what a comparison is and perhaps other coaches would be able to recognize the same things and get us this same distance, so I don't know. The biggest thing is that Quin believes in Rudy, perhaps in a way many other coaches may not. I'm not entirely certain, but I am confident that Quin knows Rudy's value and he's built a system around it. The challenging part becomes knowing the limitations of that system (i.e. not adapting and leaving Rudy in no-man's land while the other team destroys us, or encouraging the absolutely dismal perimeter defensive strategies when they're not working and expecting Rudy to be the bailout guy). But that other 15-20% is killer, and I think an even halfway competent coach would be able to recognize and respond with at least half of that 15-20% and I believe that would be enough to take us over the top. This is why I made a thread this summer about the biggest off-season acquisition really being Quin adding a veteran coach to the staff that he'd listen to. He defers to Donovan way too much, particularly in closing. I think this is a personality thing for him as he does the same with JC when it's not working, and he gives Don that latitude as a way of showing that he believes in him. I don't think he can keep us focused and I don't think he keeps us calm when the **** hits the fan. That's why we couple our poor defensive efforts with the most baffling offensive lulls to create these catastrophic meltdowns. The pattern is there where you can't say we're just being biased by a couple outliers that were really painful. The problem is that we disguise those behind "well we weren't healthy" when the underlying flaws were a genuine part of the team and we're all colluding together to pretend it's not a big deal. As has been mentioned previously, his understanding of moneyball is also suspect. He appears to feel he has to execute the moneyball strategy with exactness to get the most probable outcome, but never recognizes the new variables that get introduced that completely change the equation, and then seems baffled of how it could ever be conceivably possible that Mann could shoot so well above his averages in a small sample set.

I guess maybe what he would be good at is being the super assistant coach who is the brains behind everything and the real mastermind, but with a different ***-kicking face who yells at everyone being the head coach. Kinda like if we had Sloan as HC with Quin as the assistant, where Quin develops the game plan and everything else but Jerry would manage the yelling and the minute-to-minute stuff.

Basically Quin is a Gobert. He needs a Mitchell. Someone who isn't as important to anyone who's paying attention, but someone who appears to be the leader.

Mike Malone is the type of guy who balances the "rip my team" vs "slap my guys on the ***" super well. Even last night Quin was praising them for staying tough and pulling it out in the end. Last night felt like a night that he could get into guys a bit more you can't let that type of lead and head start just dwindle because you are so ****ing pleased with yourself.

One thing that may be happening is he may feel like if he coaches certain guys hard he will lose them. He has no problem getting tough on the young guys when the mess up... IDK his voice may be a little tired and he may be a little worried about his current standing with the organization given its new leadership.

 

[infection]

My fear with losing Quin (or with not really knowing what Smith / Wade / Ainge think of Rudy) is that we accelerate into "Donovan & friends," move on from Rudy, and become Portland.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I mean Mike Conley has never gotten a technical... its cool and all but man that means he is kind of king of not trying to upset anyone... and sometimes you need to go out there and ruffle some feathers ya know. Every title team seems to have that guy who is out there trying to get under your skin for 48 minutes. PJ Tucker, Jae Crowder, Lakers had Dwight and Rajon, Kyle Lowry, Draymond Green, Dellavadova, Haslem... Rodman back in the day, Stephen Jackson, Ron Artest, KG...

We need some guys we wonder how they will fit chemistry wise... I think I may be all in on getting Marcus Smart if we can.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

My fear with losing Quin (or with not really knowing what Smith / Wade / Ainge think of Rudy) is that we accelerate into "Donovan & friends," move on from Rudy, and become Portland.

I think Ainge actually helps with that a little. He seems less emotional about this stuff... for instance if Ainge was running portland I'm sure CJ would already be gone and likely would be trading Dame right now to rebuild. That team is going nowhere with Dame and doesn't have the assets to retool around him fast enough.

 

[homeytennis]

Quin allows too much jackpotting around and playing in tuxedos at times.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

The most simple explanation is that Utah plays a math-based basketball game more than anyone else in the NBA. The math is based on the course of an entire game. The Jazz play the smartest basketball possible (for the most part) within the context of a normal NBA game, but the final minutes of a game are much different. Normal plays arent run as often, there is less passing, there is less pace, there are less fast-breaks, things slow down, fouls arent called as much, ego plays a bigger role in player decision making, etc.

I think the biggest thing on offense would be trying to hit Gobert more. The Jazz are already awful at trusting Gobert to catch anything, but during the clutch minutes there's even more indecision.

Defensively it just is what it is unless Donovan is able to become the kind of player who can really turn on a defensive switch and become a lockdown guard defender for 3-5 minutes per game to end the game.

Bojan is what he is on defense. He's never going to be a good rebounder so Utah's going to continue to give up big offensive rebounds in clutch minutes because only Rudy/Royce/Mitchell are capable rebounders and/or capable of difficult 50/50 rebounds (meaning high amount of hustle or vertical snagging ability needed). And Donovan barely qualifies.


But it just seems to implausible to sit Bogey when he's an absolute flamethrower on offense.

I would like to see Utah crash the glass more in clutch minutes. Teams tend to slow down the offense a bit in clutch minutes so try harder to punish that by being more aggressive on the offensive glass. I would have to pay attention to this more to see if this is something does already, or maybe they do the opposite of it. I'm not sure. But then again, the Jazz still lack that additional energy type guy who can actually regularly make these kind of hustle plays in clutch minutes.

 

[NAOS]

This builds on some of the sentiments from @infection and @Handlogten's Heros ....

I wouldn’t define any of Quin’s best teams by their heart or grit. The definition comes much more through the cerebral way a system is consistently run. And that system is chosen for its statistical merits, rather than something that will/can adjust to heart or passion.

More than 10 years ago I used to make coaching analogies using the example of Mike Shannahan versus Bill Belichick. Both were premiere coaches at the time, and I would sometimes have to argue with people that Belichick was better (a debate that’s laughable at this point in history). Anyway, the gist of the argument was how Shannahan ran a system first and foremost; talent was acquired to support that system or it was made to adjust to that system. Belichick had a much better eye for talent first and foremost, and then an insane ability to build schematics/systems around it.

Q is much more of a Shannahan, I’m afraid.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The most simple explanation is that Utah plays a math-based basketball game more than anyone else in the NBA. The math is based on the course of an entire game. The Jazz play the smartest basketball possible (for the most part) within the context of a normal NBA game, but the final minutes of a game are much different. Normal plays arent run as often, there is less passing, there is less pace, there are less fast-breaks, things slow down, fouls arent called as much, ego plays a bigger role in player decision making, etc.

I think the biggest thing on offense would be trying to hit Gobert more. The Jazz are already awful at trusting Gobert to catch anything, but during the clutch minutes there's even more indecision.

Defensively it just is what it is unless Donovan is able to become the kind of player who can really turn on a defensive switch and become a lockdown guard defender for 3-5 minutes per game to end the game.

Bojan is what he is on defense. He's never going to be a good rebounder so Utah's going to continue to give up big offensive rebounds in clutch minutes because only Rudy/Royce/Mitchell are capable rebounders and/or capable of difficult 50/50 rebounds (meaning high amount of hustle or vertical snagging ability needed). And Donovan barely qualifies.


But it just seems to implausible to sit Bogey when he's an absolute flamethrower on offense.

I would like to see Utah crash the glass more in clutch minutes. Teams tend to slow down the offense a bit in clutch minutes so try harder to punish that by being more aggressive on the offensive glass. I would have to pay attention to this more to see if this is something does already, or maybe they do the opposite of it. I'm not sure. But then again, the Jazz still lack that additional energy type guy who can actually regularly make these kind of hustle plays in clutch minutes.

In the clutch I think we have been okay on offense... it generally gums up a little for every team. As far as adjustments I just like the ball in Mike's hand at least to start the possession. He is the most capable guy we have setting people up. Donovan is capable of it but in the clutch he turns one dimensional too much. He still does pretty well... the end of game play where he shoots a fade away is a failure of the coach, and the whole team tbh. I think Donovan is better as a decoy in those situations and you hit Bojan for a three.... if it is a 2-3 seconds left catch and shoot situation.

The defense is the issue... we couldn't get any stops at all... and this is where I'd love an adjustment or two in the coverages. We have to make the initial read harder. Last night the Hornets, who are a terrible defensive team, adjusted and started blitzing the pick and rolls... it ended up getting them back in the game... later they got torched when we dropped the ball down to Rudy and started to hit some shots... but a ****** team was able to adjust. When it comes down to like 10 possessions and you only get like 1-2 stops then who cares if you blitz and end up giving up an easy shot. You also might force a turnover... then they also have to think. I also wouldn't mind just bringing Rudy a little higher so they can't get the easy midrange. And maybe you tell guys to over-rotate a bit... mike, Don and Royce are good at getting in the passing lanes at times. And maybe its not the end of game time to do it... but maybe when you get the 17 point lead you tell the guys we are going to adjust a little and maybe it gets them more engaged and puts you a step ahead of the adjustment that is certainly coming.

The starters are the group that should finish... although Quin really needs to start going offense/defense subs when there is like 40 seconds left and you can call a timeout. Get Gay on the floor for rebounding and secondary rim protection. Its the in between minutes we just need a shot of life. Sometimes JC gives that with his shot making but that is wildly inconsistent this year and doesn't complement the other stuff we have as much as an energetic defender/toughguy/agitator would. Marcus Smart, Josh Hart, etc. may not be available... but maybe you could snake a guy like David Nwaba... we just need a guy who is going to bring some energy and try to hurt people's feelings. I think Don has some dog in him that would come out more if there was someone to get that energy started.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

As for playoff coaching, I think it's worth recognizing that Quin has done a great job the past two years throwing the first punch. There was a reason we were up 3-1 against Denver and 2-0 vs the Clippers. I remember thinking against Denver that Quin was the much better coach, until the collapse.

The problem with Quin is he isn't able to counter once he's been punched back. Denver made adjustments and we couldn't figure it out. The Clippers made adjustments and we really couldn't figure it out. I think this goes back to rigidly sticking with statistical basketball and not expirementing in the regular season to have more counters available.

 

[jom2003]

Be careful what you wish for. Things may not be ideal at the moment but Quin is one of the leagues better coaches. Guys talking about playoffs success while taking regular season for granted. I mean Indiana is already trying to tear it all down despite having a great roster and Rick Carlisle as their HC simply because they are struggling to make the playoffs. Is that what we are trying to become?

 

[homeytennis]

Alex Jensen grasshopper.