On the record...

[Handlogten's Heros]

The point is, because something unlikely happened does not mean you should count on it happening again. Would you play the lottery because you won the lottery before? The maximum gain is amazing, but that's not what matters does it? If you wanted to get rich, that's not how you would want to do it.

You mean just like VCs who make it rich on low odds on investing in speculative tech startups then continue to build their wealth by rinsing and repeating? Yeah that would be dumb AF.

 

[KqWIN]

You mean just like VCs who make it rich on low odds on investing in speculative tech startups then continue to build their wealth by rinsing and repeating? Yeah that would be dumb AF.

Hmmm….something tells me that the risk is different between a lottery and venture capital. I don’t think they are the same. Maybe it’s that the chances of winning are well defined and not good whereas VC’s are built around calculating risk that is favorable for profit.

Just a hunch I have….

We need basketball. I really do not care to address made up arguments anymore. Leads to dumb **** like this.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

It’s not the ****ing lottery. We got unprotected picks 3/5/7 years in the future from a franchise who’s made the playoffs two times since 2004.

How in the **** is any of this equal to playing the lottery.

Its also just not the right odds. If there was a 1% chance I could win the lotto I'd plow a **** ton of money into it as often as I could.

The odds that we find someone as good or better than Donovan or Rudy with one pick aren't good... but they aren't lotto bad... If the payoff on a half court shot is the right point value... I would shoot them.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Hmmm….something tells me that the risk is different between a lottery and venture capital. I don’t think they are the same. Maybe it’s that the chances of winning are well defined and not good whereas VC’s are built around calculating risk that is favorable for profit.

Just a hunch I have….

We need basketball. I really do not care to address made up arguments anymore. Leads to dumb **** like this.

Just like the chances of hitting on a first rounder are slightly better than lotto odds... Thank you.

I would say I (a rec league basketball player) will make more shots than the VCs will pick winners on the whole. The vast majority die... some return enough to cover their investment... and some make billions... almost like draft picks ya know.

But continue comping lottery tickets to draft picks and simultaneously telling me there is no one saying they are worthless.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Do you really think @infection would be willing to throw those picks in the trash as if they meant nothing? Answer that honestly. When you make an uncharitable interpretation of an expression, it means nothing. What I said is as ridiculous as what you said, and that's the point. It's a waste of everyone's time to take that expression in a way that we all know it was not meant to be interpreted.

Basically yes... you know how many raffle tickets I've thrown in the trash? Its not uncharitable... its exactly what happens with like 90% of them.

But then go on and tell me how firsts are like shooting half court shots... then think about your charitable expressions some more.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

@infection also called Don hubcaps... but I am sure @KqWIN will tell you that hubcaps are often made of platinum and normally quite valuable.

 

[KqWIN]

Just like the chances of hitting on a first rounder are slightly better than lotto odds... Thank you.

I would say I (a rec league basketball player) will make more shots than the VCs will pick winners on the whole. The vast majority die... some return enough to cover their investment... and some make billions... almost like draft picks ya know.

But continue comping lottery tickets to draft picks and simultaneously telling me there is no one saying they are worthless.

If you can identify a single person that says they are worthless, I guess they can speak for themselves and you can have that conversation with them. Until then I will keep saying no one said that because no one has said that or come close to implying that.

@infection also called Don hubcaps... but I am sure @KqWIN will tell you that hubcaps are often made of platinum and normally quite valuable.

I'm glad you see how ridiculous it is to make up an incredibly stupid interpretation of an expression is. I don't feel the need to make uncharitable exaggerations to further my argument, but I will do so to show how stupid and worthless it is

 

[Elizah Huge]

Its also just not the right odds. If there was a 1% chance I could win the lotto I'd plow a **** ton of money into it as often as I could.

The odds that we find someone as good or better than Donovan or Rudy with one pick aren't good... but they aren't lotto bad... If the payoff on a half court shot is the right point value... I would shoot them.

What people aren’t understanding either is we gain a **** ton of value on our own picks by doing these deals as well.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

If you can identify a single person that says they are worthless, I guess they can speak for themselves and you can have that conversation with them. Until then I will keep saying no one said that because no one has said that or come close to implying that.



I'm glad you see how ridiculous it is to make up an incredibly stupid interpretation of an expression is. I don't feel the need to make uncharitable exaggerations to further my argument, but I will do so to show how stupid and worthless it is

I mean I'd be willing to bet that 90% of folks on here would consider raffle tickets being synonymous as worthless or of very little value. But please tell me about your totally realistic interpretation of maybe a raffle being an 80% chance at a billion dollars... that was **** you literally typed man.

I'm speaking to you because you said "no one is saying they are worthless" and I pointed out that yes some folks are and you dug in on the value of raffle tickets. But sure... no one said or implied that they were low value items.

Maybe you can talk more about how Powell and RoCo would give us a championship if we could have only traded some stuff better than Keon Johnson for them... except that it would have been an unprotected 1st in 2028 (That is literally the only thing we could offer... we didn't have seconds and the pick we owe to OKC is protected through 2026). And then go on about Danny's brilliant plan to drag us down to Tank town.

 

[Elizah Huge]

I mean I'd be willing to bet that 90% of folks on here would consider raffle tickets being synonymous as worthless or of very little value. But please tell me about your totally realistic interpretation of maybe a raffle being an 80% chance at a billion dollars... that was **** you literally typed man.

I'm speaking to you because you said "no one is saying they are worthless" and I pointed out that yes some folks are and you dug in on the value of raffle tickets. But sure... no one said or implied that they were low value items.

Maybe you can talk more about how Powell and RoCo would give us a championship if we could have only traded some stuff better than Keon Johnson for them... except that it would have been an unprotected 1st in 2028 (That is literally the only thing we could offer... we didn't have seconds and the pick we owe to OKC is protected through 2016). And then go on about Danny's brilliant plan to drag us down to Tank town.

Nah bro if you think that’s what the package would have been I don’t know what to tell you lolz.

 

[KqWIN]

I mean I'd be willing to bet that 90% of folks on here would consider raffle tickets being synonymous as worthless or of very little value. But please tell me about your totally realistic interpretation of maybe a raffle being an 80% chance at a billion dollars... that was **** you literally typed man.

I'm speaking to you because you said "no one is saying they are worthless" and I pointed out that yes some folks are and you dug in on the value of raffle tickets. But sure... no one said or implied that they were low value items.

Maybe you can talk more about how Powell and RoCo would give us a championship if we could have only traded some stuff better than Keon Johnson for them... except that it would have been an unprotected 1st in 2018 (That is literally the only thing we could offer... we didn't have seconds and the pick we owe to OKC is protected through 2016). And then go on about Danny's brilliant plan to drag us down to Tank town.

You said Infection said that picks were worthless, not me. I chose to say something as ridiculous as that to show you how stupid it is. I mean, he can speak for himself, but I think we all know that Infection does not think picks are worthless. I love how you keep saying what I said was ridiculous as if it's not obvious that the point was to be ridiculous. Like, I've pointed this out several times....and you're wanting another explanation for it? Man, if you focused on the things that are said instead of the things you make up in your mind we might actually have a discussion.

I'd continue to talk about how Powell and Roco would give us a championship, but I can't because I never said that and it's another thing you made up yourself lol.

 

[Elizah Huge]

You said Infection said that picks were worthless, not me. I chose to say something as ridiculous as that to show you how stupid it is. I mean, he can speak for himself, but I think we all know that Infection does not think picks are worthless. I love how you keep saying what I said was ridiculous as if it's not obvious that the point was to be ridiculous. Like, I've pointed this out several times....and you're wanting another explanation for it? Man, if you focused on the things that are said instead of the things you make up in your mind we might actually have a discussion.

I'd continue to talk about how Powell and Roco would give us a championship, but I can't because I never said that and it's another thing you made up yourself lol.

Keep on digging and doubling down. Each post you make sounds worse and worse lmao. Getting absolutely crushed.

 

[KqWIN]

Keep on digging and doubling down. Each post you make sounds worse and worse lmao. Getting absolutely crushed.

Yeah, these made up arguments are really crushing me. It's really hard to argue for something I never said, so I guess I just have to take the L and move on. Next time I will make up something fake and argue against it myself.

 

[Elizah Huge]

Yeah, these made up arguments are really crushing me. It's really hard to argue for something I never said, so I guess I just have to take the L and move on. Next time I will make up something fake and argue against it myself.

I mean please expound on how raffle tickets aren’t worthless and never really have much more than a 0.0001% chance of winning anything.

Secondly, please expound how we get Covington and Powell without trading a 1st to replace Keon in the deal (who Portland valued extremely high)?

 

[framer]

The Jazz generally do a good job of drafting other than Doke. Even Trey Lyles stuck in the league longer than the average. Exum and Kanter hurt because those were just awful drafts to have a high pick. Having extra picks means you get your guy. We moved in the draft to get both Rudy and Don. We did that with assets.

Outside of maybe the consensus top 5 guys in the next couple of drafts we have the assets to get anyone else. If we believe in our scouting and player development, we won't be in Sacramento land.

I'm not here for a 5 year rebuild though.

 

[KqWIN]

I mean please expound on how raffle tickets aren’t worthless and never really have much more than a
Secondly, please expound how we get Covington and Powell without trading a 1st to replace Keon in the deal (who Portland valued extremely high)?

If you believe that the expression, "trading a car for raffle tickets" implies that picks are worthless....I seriously can't help you. I'd expect a child to understand what that means. I don't even know why this is a discussion point, nobody actually believes that Infection thinks the picks are worthless.

As far as the Portland trade, it's really pretty easy. Ingles to POR, Bogey/O'Neale/Clarkson/Conley somewhere else for a 1st, that first goes to POR. The Jazz could have traded any of those players for Roco and Powell and improved greatly. The Jazz could have also traded two of those players for Roco and Powell and gotten better. Could they have gotten a first for one of those players? I have a strong feeling because we did trade one of those players for a 1st and that trade could have been easily executed back then. There would have been more incentive for BKN to trade a first last year than when they did this summer. Royce could have easily been looped into the Harden deal which happened within a week of the Powell/Covington deal.

Oh and by the way, this is just one example of something that "did" happen. The reason why I brought this up as an example was a counter to the idea that the Jazz tried so hard to get better but they just couldn't find a deal to improve. I don't think that was the case. Go back to when the trade was made, I promise you I was not the only one thinking this. It's hard for me to believe that we did everything we could, but just couldn't find anything to help us. That's actually why we're talking about Roco/Powell btw. It was about the trade market at the time. There were several players who were in trade rumors all year that could have helped us. Roco/Powell is just the most concrete example of a trade for two players, who were perfect for us, that went for very little. Maybe you think this particular trade was implausible for UTA to execute....are we now convinced we tried really hard to do something but couldn't? Eh....I'm skeptical.

I mean, if we're being realistic about that Powell/Roco trade, the number one reason why we wouldn't do it is because we didn't want to take on a ton of future salary. I could totally see that, and aligns into my theory that Ainge/FO was favoring the "blow it up" option already. I think it's likely we were leaning that direction, and thus we were protecting the future cap situation/picks very closely. It's fine....but it is a damn shame that we could never give Don/Rudy a legitimate shot to win. Those guys were so good and we wasted it with years of inaction.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Got it... no one is implying or trying to devalue first round picks by comparing them to raffle/lotto tickets and half court shots. By saying all we got were a bunch of mediocre picks we aren't trying to downplay the great return we got for a great player.

First round picks are as valuable as drugs to a junky to some....

First round picks are raffle tickets or scratchers to others...

The truth is definitely in the middle. The quality of the picks is pretty amazing. I will take unprotected first round picks for teams that project to be good over protected first for teams that are mediocre all day. 3 unprotected picks and a swap plus a very lightly protected pick is some high quality ****. I get that its likely that those picks one yield one single player better than Rudy... but it likely yields a starter... maybe two. You will have team control for like 8 years and for 4 years they will be cheap.

And @Elizah Huge is also correct... it gives us the ability to increase the value of our own pick. The chances that we land an all-star caliber player with a top ten pick this year plus the 4-5 chances we get with the Minny picks is fairly solid... add in the additional value we can get selling off the pieces and using cap space and the return has a ton of potential. I'd be willing to bet the production/value we get from those assets over the next 10 years far exceeds the value Rudy would have offered over the next 4.

Its just kind of hilarious that we have people wringing their hands over getting draft picks for a guy we got by using draft picks. People acting like its lotto or lightening strike type of luck. Its lucky but its like 5-10% chances you find an all-star (or near all-star... like I'd consider an SGA as this type) with a first (increases based on where you pick obvi) not 1 in a million. You also have a 15-20% chance at a solid starter. Give yourself as many rolls of the dice as possible.

 

[gomretat]

When there is no avenue to get better. We had zero assets and zero picks.

Not if you trade Donny or even Donny and a few pieces. Plenty of ways to take a shot at getting some assets and staying relevant, especially with a new coach with a new start.

 

[gomretat]

Valid question and I think its different for each situation. The key element to me revolved around Donovan... "Him and Rudy don't have to be best buds" was a common refrain from Jazz folks... well guess what? They do have to enjoy working together and be more than just co-workers for it to work long term and for Donovan to be happy. If that relationship was awesome I think you keep those two together and try something different. It likely doesn't work even if they homies... but when there is so much tinder for a drama fire it doesn't take much to explode with where the relationship was.

Could have kept Rudy and pivoted around him I guess... but we got such a big return in trade its tough to say no and Don might not return back pieces that are win-now or good enough.

I'm also a little sick of hearing everyone say they should have changed the roster around those guys... that is only valid before last season... as I think we were conservative there. We were trying like hell to move guys and very clearly the market said "we won't give you anything good". Bogey, Ingles, and Mike (for the right price) could have been moved... but the returns were subpar. Do we think Ainge was sitting there thumbing his hole and not trying to move those guys. Then Ingles tore his ACL... Mike and Bogey are generally declining in trade value... I think it is very easy for us to say "do something!!!" but there wasn't anything good.

Again, under the DL regime I think we could and should have changed things up... sounded like JZ was trying in the offseason and Quin put the breaks on it.

It was just so clear to me that it was the right time if you wanted to get a premium for the guys you have... waiting a year would provide what?

Trading Donny for real players and a few picks could create some options and potentially a much better fit. If you blow it up every time you have an underachieving year odds are good you will just keep blowing it up. I lived through the Stockton Malone era when lots of folks wanted it blown up and Larry and Jerry stayed the course. I am not convinced this team couldn't have done some retooling and tinkering and gotten better, especially with a new coach and a better locker room. Getting back to two all stars who are not past their prime is a very tall order.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

If you believe that the expression, "trading a car for raffle tickets" implies that picks are worthless....I seriously can't help you. I'd expect a child to understand what that means. I don't even know why this is a discussion point, nobody actually believes that Infection thinks the picks are worthless.

I think he was comparing Donovan to hubcaps, Rudy to a car, and picks to raffle tickets to show the value in comparison with each other. You are hung up on worthless... it is to show what he thinks they are worth... which is raffle tickets... which isn't worth much. I have talked a lot with him here over the years and I would guess he values picks a whole lot less than most posters on this forum. He doesn't think they are worthless but I think its fair to say he thinks their best value is in trades for actual players.

Is it an exaggeration... it is. Is it fair for me to say "hey these picks aren't worthless raffle tickets?"... i think it is. To be accused of straw man arguments and misinterpreting things is pretty wild... especially when you out here saying "many on this board wouldn't trade Bogey for Smart" when there were actually very few people that did.

As far as the Portland trade, it's really pretty easy. Ingles to POR, Bogey/O'Neale/Clarkson/Conley somewhere else for a 1st, that first goes to POR. The Jazz could have traded any of those players for Roco and Powell and improved greatly. The Jazz could have also traded two of those players for Roco and Powell and gotten better. Could they have gotten a first for one of those players? I have a strong feeling because we did trade one of those players for a 1st and that trade could have been easily executed back then. There would have been more incentive for BKN to trade a first last year than when they did this summer. Royce could have easily been looped into the Harden deal which happened within a week of the Powell/Covington deal.

Oh and by the way, this is just one example of something that "did" happen. The reason why I brought this up as an example was a counter to the idea that the Jazz tried so hard to get better but they just couldn't find a deal to improve. I don't think that was the case. Go back to when the trade was made, I promise you I was not the only one thinking this. It's hard for me to believe that we did everything we could, but just couldn't find anything to help us. That's actually why we're talking about Roco/Powell btw. It was about the trade market at the time. There were several players who were in trade rumors all year that could have helped us. Roco/Powell is just the most concrete example of a trade for two players, who were perfect for us, that went for very little. Maybe you think this particular trade was implausible for UTA to execute....are we now convinced we tried really hard to do something but couldn't? Eh....I'm skeptical.

I mean, if we're being realistic about that Powell/Roco trade, the number one reason why we wouldn't do it is because we didn't want to take on a ton of future salary. I could totally see that, and aligns into my theory that Ainge/FO was favoring the "blow it up" option already. I think it's likely we were leaning that direction, and thus we were protecting the future cap situation/picks very closely. It's fine....but it is a damn shame that we could never give Don/Rudy a legitimate shot to win. Those guys were so good and we wasted it with years of inaction.

They simply had their limits... not some master plan to blow it up. They tried to do deals and came up empty. The stuff they offered didn't match what Portland wanted... you can loop in other teams if you want... if there was a good deal that didn't hurt our future or cost a billion dollars in tax they would have done it. They might not view RoCo/Powell as obvious upgrades to Royce and Bogey... at least not obvious enough to invest a pick or the additional money.