Physical attributes from the combine out

[MadMaxContract]

In other words, Davis and Favors are the only good athletes amongst big men in the top 10. More and more I'm beginning to think that the supposed depth at the 4 and 5 in this draft is a fraud.

There is DEPTH, just not greatness. At #9, the Jazz can count on getting a pretty reliable 7th man.

 

[NAOS]

The Turner/Roy comparisons are driving me crazy. Roy didn't shoot the 3 his first 3 years at Washington, but when he did he was good. Turner has only reluctantly shot the 3 at OSU and never been good. Roy was not the primary ballhandler and averaged 4 assists. Turner handled the ball 90% of the time and averaged 6. Turner's rebounding numbers are impressive when you forget that Dallas Freakin Lauderdale is the only guy on his team capable of grabbing a board. And everyone saw what happened to Turner once the comp stepped up--points, sure, but the turnovers were off the charts.

Turner is going to be a solid pro. But he's going to be a massive 'bust' drafted at 2.

Billy, you just aren't as sweet as you used to be.
I think the Roy comparisons are somewhat fair in terms of a single skill/attribute in which they have both excelled at their respective levels of play, viz. the one I mentioned in my post. If this is truly driving you crazy I'd recommend that you take a big dose of cialis and go to a club that always runs a valentine's day theme.

 

[billyshelby]

Billy, you just aren't as sweet as you used to be.
I think the Roy comparisons are somewhat fair in terms of a single skill/attribute in which they have both excelled at their respective levels of play, viz. the one I mentioned in my post. If this is truly driving you crazy I'd recommend that you take a big dose of cialis and go to a club that always runs a valentine's day theme.

I've got the Roy/Turner comparisons separated from my personal happiness just fine. But this is the place where these things get talked about. And when I talk about it, my opinion is that Turner is vastly overrated. I might turn out to be really, really wrong. I'll be here when he proves me wrong.

But I would say Top 3 picks in any NBA draft are always considered Can't Miss on some level. They're always guys that are thought will develop into All Stars. Everyone always wants to trade up to get one of these future All Stars. Without further adieu, here's the top 3 misses from 2006 going down, (misses defined as didn't turn out to be all that great):

2006: Morrison (3)
2005: Williams (Marvin) (2) (won't include Bogut, but he's hardly what you dream of as a #1)
2004: Okafor (2); Gordon (3) -- these are not bad players. They're not all stars. This is about what I expect for Turner. Both are disappointments relative to where they were selected, though.
2003: Milicik (2) -- unbelievable freakin draft this was
2002: Williams (Jay) (2); Dunleavy (3); and just for fun, this draft went Gooden, Jeffries, Wagner, a Greek Guy, Caron Butler, Curtis Freakin Borchardt, and THEN Amare Stoudemire.
2001: Brown (1); Chandler (2); and terrible Pau Gasol at 3
2000: Martin (1); Swift (2); Miles (3) -- the trifecta
1999: Francis (2) -- he was good depending on your perspective, but he sucked compared to my perspective.
1998: Olowakandi (1); LaFrentz (3)
1997: Van Horn (2)

In other words, at least one of every top 3 every single year turns out to be not nearly as good as advertised or a complete bust. Turner is my pick to keep the tradition going. Seems crazy now. But somebody is going to be that guy unless history changes miraculously this year.

 

[Siro]

I've got the Roy/Turner comparisons separated from my personal happiness just fine. But this is the place where these things get talked about. And when I talk about it, my opinion is that Turner is vastly overrated. I might turn out to be really, really wrong. I'll be here when he proves me wrong.

But I would say Top 3 picks in any NBA draft are always considered Can't Miss on some level. They're always guys that are thought will develop into All Stars. Everyone always wants to trade up to get one of these future All Stars. Without further adieu, here's the top 3 misses from 2006 going down, (misses defined as didn't turn out to be all that great):

2006: Morrison (3)
2005: Williams (Marvin) (2) (won't include Bogut, but he's hardly what you dream of as a #1)
2004: Okafor (2); Gordon (3) -- these are not bad players. They're not all stars. This is about what I expect for Turner. Both are disappointments relative to where they were selected, though.
2003: Milicik (2) -- unbelievable freakin draft this was
2002: Williams (Jay) (2); Dunleavy (3); and just for fun, this draft went Gooden, Jeffries, Wagner, a Greek Guy, Caron Butler, Curtis Freakin Borchardt, and THEN Amare Stoudemire.
2001: Brown (1); Chandler (2); and terrible Pau Gasol at 3
2000: Martin (1); Swift (2); Miles (3) -- the trifecta
1999: Francis (2) -- he was good depending on your perspective, but he sucked compared to my perspective.
1998: Olowakandi (1); LaFrentz (3)
1997: Van Horn (2)

In other words, at least one of every top 3 every single year turns out to be not nearly as good as advertised or a complete bust. Turner is my pick to keep the tradition going. Seems crazy now. But somebody is going to be that guy unless history changes miraculously this year.

First you say that top 3 picks are considered a "can't miss", then you show the majority (16 out of 30) were busts. Are you saying that NBA teams are wrong for regarding top 3 picks so highly?

 

[billyshelby]

I said they are 'considered' Can't Miss. I'm not saying NBA teams are wrong for regarding them so highly, I'm just saying they're often wrong. This year the NBA regards Evan Turner very highly. I'm saying they're all wrong. And they all know more than me. And they all have watched more games. But they're the guys who said all those other guys were going to be so great. And they weren't.

 

[Avery]

No such thing as a can't miss player, just players with less likelihood of being a miss.

I think Wesley Johnson is going to be the best player from this class and average 25 PPG for a long time.

 

[afrojazz]

Cousins is a head scratcher for me

I'm not sold on Cousins. He had a lot of trouble getting up and down the court in the NCAA--either due to conditioning or lack of intensity. He just does not hustle back on D. He often looked lost out on the court and is prone to mental lapses and childish behavior. He has gotten by on size and ability to this point. I don't think he is going to work hard and be determined enough to be a game changer in the NBA. I think he will be off the board before the #9 slot so the Jazz won't have to make a judgement on him.

 

[NUMBERICA]

Most of the time, you can't do in the NBA what you couldn't do in college or Europe. That said, I'm not sure how Turner is more likely to be a relative bust than Favors is.

 

[GVC]

I thought I'd point out that Derrick Favors measured out with the best No Step Vert Reach AND Max Vert Reach (that is, the height of his hand when he jumps). Yes, just slightly better than Whiteside in both. As such, I think it's fair to say that Favors is a legit center prospect, especially since he will likely be a better man defender than the other top center prospects in the draft (Cousins, Monroe, Whiteside, etc.). Sorta like Amare with D.

I was on the DeMarcus Cousins bandwagon (I know, I know), but if the Jazz can move up and grab Favors, I'd wet myself.

Just imagine how scary (defensively) a frontline of Favors, Sap and AK would be. The activity level of those three is incredible.

 

[Shaggy]

Favors as a center? Not so sure about that. I guess he could be a really athletic Shawn Bradley, but shorter.

I'd be SO excited to see Favors on this team. I don't know how much better we would be next year, but the years after that could be potentially awesome as long as we resign AK to a better deal and Deron sticks around.

 

[Gyp Rosetti]

No such thing as a can't miss player, just players with less likelihood of being a miss.

I think Wesley Johnson is going to be the best player from this class and average 25 PPG for a long time.

I pretty much agree. Turner could be a very solid pro but I'm not totally sold. Johnson and Favors will have the bet pro careers in this group I think. Maybe Wall too.

 

[Gyp Rosetti]

I thought I'd point out that Derrick Favors measured out with the best No Step Vert Reach AND Max Vert Reach (that is, the height of his hand when he jumps). Yes, just slightly better than Whiteside in both. As such, I think it's fair to say that Favors is a legit center prospect, especially since he will likely be a better man defender than the other top center prospects in the draft (Cousins, Monroe, Whiteside, etc.). Sorta like Amare with D.

I was on the DeMarcus Cousins bandwagon (I know, I know), but if the Jazz can move up and grab Favors, I'd wet myself.

Just imagine how scary (defensively) a frontline of Favors, Sap and AK would be. The activity level of those three is incredible.

These numbers are fairly overrated but I agree with you about Favors. He's the one guy we need to move up to try to get. He seems pretty selfless, defense-oriented and has the physical and mental tools necessary to be a success...against the Lakers and other such long front-courts. I would do a Booze and #9 S&T with the Nets for #3 (Favors) and Lee. Perhaps that's asking too much but a solid, cheap contributor (much cheaper than re-signing Korver) like Lee would help fill out wings situation, especially since AK could be gone after this year.