Taylor Hendricks Hype Thread

[Handlogten's Heros]

I dont see how Dunn has been asked to take a backseat. He got the same minutes he has been getting all season....

His place in the starting lineup was always a placeholder and I'm sure he knew that. His future with the Jazz, if he is to have a future, is off the bench. He's still getting plenty of minutes to cement his value and earn his next contract.

He's in a better place to succeed and get more minutes as a starter. He's our top on/off guy for the season. He actually should be getting more minutes not less.

Also, there is benefit to being a "starter" with player's value. Maybe it won't affect him... but he was having success there and was moved... I'd be pissed unless there is some agreement already.

 

[infection]

JZ/DA did a good job of selling Ochai while he still had a shred of value.

Will they be smart enough to do that same on their own pick?

This is a huge problem in larger contexts, though. Ochai was drafted #14 a little over 1.5 years ago, and the “value” he retains is being packaged with KO (the real meat of the trade) to grab a pick guaranteed to be 28-30th. That value drops quick. Imagine the trade value of having the 14th pick now, even with the perceptions of a “weaker draft.” My point, which I’ve been bitching about last year (when we had three picks) is that we have too many front-loaded assets and we need to be punting a lot of these to the future. Once you make the draft selection, it’s like driving a new car off the lot (at least pre-2020), if not much worse. Part of that is me viewing draft assets more as currency, but I really hope we don’t end up using both picks this year (or three picks, depending) because that’s the quickest way to get diminishing returns on the value we’ve obtained. I’d be curious if anyone could ever compile enough data on trades that include draft picks, maybe using PER, to determine which side of the equation has returned more value in trades in aggregate, because I really feel that the value of picks is pretty significantly inflated in deals compared to the average reality (obviously there are big exceptions that stand out on pick realization that has far exceeded whatever tangible player value was given up but I’m talking about an overall mean).

Tl;dr tarde teh eff outta our picks this year

 

[KqWIN]

This is a huge problem in larger contexts, though. Ochai was drafted #14 a little over 1.5 years ago, and the “value” he retains is being packaged with KO (the real meat of the trade) to grab a pick guaranteed to be 28-30th. That value drops quick. Imagine the trade value of having the 14th pick now, even with the perceptions of a “weaker draft.” My point, which I’ve been bitching about last year (when we had three picks) is that we have too many front-loaded assets and we need to be punting a lot of these to the future. Once you make the draft selection, it’s like driving a new car off the lot (at least pre-2020), if not much worse. Part of that is me viewing draft assets more as currency, but I really hope we don’t end up using both picks this year (or three picks, depending) because that’s the quickest way to get diminishing returns on the value we’ve obtained. I’d be curious if anyone could ever compile enough data on trades that include draft picks, maybe using PER, to determine which side of the equation has returned more value in trades in aggregate, because I really feel that the value of picks is pretty significantly inflated in deals compared to the average reality (obviously there are big exceptions that stand out on pick realization that has far exceeded whatever tangible player value was given up but I’m talking about an overall mean).

Tl;dr tarde teh eff outta our picks this year

Not exactly what you mentioned, but there's been a bunch of work looking at the expected value of a draft pick. This article has compiled a lot of those studies and has a lot of words on the topic:

Decision Analysis and NBA Draft Pick Value

An extended analysis of NBA draft pick value in the context of Decision Analysis (DA)

tonyelhabr.github.io

If you don't want to read, this is the image that pop ups in my head whenever this question/similar questions get proposed. When we think about what we got for Ochai/KO, we got one of those pink dots at the end. Or more accurately, those pink dots are what those picks have become historically.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

This is a huge problem in larger contexts, though. Ochai was drafted #14 a little over 1.5 years ago, and the “value” he retains is being packaged with KO (the real meat of the trade) to grab a pick guaranteed to be 28-30th. That value drops quick. Imagine the trade value of having the 14th pick now, even with the perceptions of a “weaker draft.” My point, which I’ve been bitching about last year (when we had three picks) is that we have too many front-loaded assets and we need to be punting a lot of these to the future. Once you make the draft selection, it’s like driving a new car off the lot (at least pre-2020), if not much worse. Part of that is me viewing draft assets more as currency, but I really hope we don’t end up using both picks this year (or three picks, depending) because that’s the quickest way to get diminishing returns on the value we’ve obtained. I’d be curious if anyone could ever compile enough data on trades that include draft picks, maybe using PER, to determine which side of the equation has returned more value in trades in aggregate, because I really feel that the value of picks is pretty significantly inflated in deals compared to the average reality (obviously there are big exceptions that stand out on pick realization that has far exceeded whatever tangible player value was given up but I’m talking about an overall mean).

Tl;dr tarde teh eff outta our picks this year

Yeah, none of what you said raelly makes snese to me. The Jazz have their asset portofilio very well rounded through the upcoming years. Not front loaded at all.

You're going to lose some bets, you're going to win some. The point is to not wait until they are completely lost to make up value. You have to accept you arent going to maximize everything and that's OK.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Selling picks for more certain value is a strategy to employ later. Its like investing in a mutual fund. Its safer and will have a more guaranteed return. The issue is we are trying to become billionaires (winning a title has small odds) so you want the investments that might hit big... even if there is a good chance they become worthless.

Not selling the picks. All is not lost. Key likely has more value (even though he has struggled) than the 16th pick did by itself last year. So the care off the lot works both ways. There is a chance Taylor shows enough flashes that his value increases now too. Either way he will have more value than Ochai did when we traded him.

We all probably need to chill.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Selling picks for more certain value is a strategy to employ later. Its like investing in a mutual fund. Its safer and will have a more guaranteed return. The issue is we are trying to become billionaires (winning a title has small odds) so you want the investments that might hit big... even if there is a good chance they become worthless.

Not selling the picks. All is not lost. Key likely has more value (even though he has struggled) than the 16th pick did by itself last year. So the care off the lot works both ways. There is a chance Taylor shows enough flashes that his value increases now too. Either way he will have more value than Ochai did when we traded him.

We all probably need to chill.

Key has absolutely increased his value and it will stay that way even if he struggles for two years. He's a high potential player with a hooper gene.

Hendricks does not have that luxury.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Key has absolutely increased his value and it will stay that way even if he struggles for two years. He's a high potential player with a hooper gene.

Hendricks does not have that luxury.

Disagree on Taylor. Patrick Williams was untouchable last offseason when Chicago was rumored to be in the Rudy chase. He just needs to show some flashes here and there.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Disagree on Taylor. Patrick Williams was untouchable last offseason when Chicago was rumored to be in the Rudy chase. He just needs to show some flashes here and there.

You can honestly believe what you just typed....

Patrick Williams had a really solid rookie season that is in no way comparable to the dog **** Hendricks looks like currently. Then after that rookie year he had a season ending injury early in the season, which probably bolstered his stock as he was seen as someone who got pushed back in development due to injuries, not due to lack of ability. Now he's in year 4 and hasnt had any jump in his ability. God bless whoever overpays for him if he still has a big enough fan to do so (I would be shocked). Chicago should have sold on him when his stock was high. But they are Chicago and not exactly value driven in terms of basketball moves. *He was also the 4th overall pick, not 9th*

First impressions matter a lot in the NBA, fair or not. Luckily Hendricks was a mid lottery pick that most likely would have gone 11th or 12 at his floor, so he will still have some fans even if he doesnt do all that much, but every year after his rookie year that fails to meet expectations, his stock will drop precipitously because it will look more and more like the raw dog **** he showed is actually just who he is.

 

[zags422]

Patrick Williams averaged almost 30 min per game over a 71 game appearances his rookie year. Taylor Hendricks has only had like 7 appearances in limited minutes. Pumping the brakes would be a good idea. He is 20 years old and seeing first meaningful minutes. This is a conversation for after the season. Anything else is premature

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

You can honestly believe what you just typed....

Patrick Williams had a really solid rookie season that is in no way comparable to the dog **** Hendricks looks like currently. Then after that rookie year he had a season ending injury early in the season, which probably bolstered his stock as he was seen as someone who got pushed back in development due to injuries, not due to lack of ability. Now he's in year 4 and hasnt had any jump in his ability. God bless whoever overpays for him if he still has a big enough fan to do so (I would be shocked). Chicago should have sold on him when his stock was high. But they are Chicago and not exactly value driven in terms of basketball moves. *He was also the 4th overall pick, not 9th*

First impressions matter a lot in the NBA, fair or not. Luckily Hendricks was a mid lottery pick that most likely would have gone 11th or 12 at his floor, so he will still have some fans even if he doesnt do all that much, but every year after his rookie year that fails to meet expectations, his stock will drop precipitously because it will look more and more like the raw dog **** he showed is actually just who he is.

Yes... his value will decline if he continues to disappoint. But this summer he still has value and next year if we move him in season... we will get more than we did for Ochai. He's a raw wing... those guys will get a long runway.

He's going to have an opportunity to show his potential. You are being overly dramatic. Its not like he's JHS who they are too embarrassed to send down to the G League because he will be completely exposed.

 

[KqWIN]

Yeah, Pat started all 71 games he played in as a young 19 year old rookie and that team was actually trying to win. They traded for Vuc half way through to do so. Even if you don't think he was good, it's clear that Bulls believed in him which is why he would be untouchable. He got more minutes than Lauri lol. Getting complete opposite signs from TH....whose playing time is being seen as waving the white flag on this season.

I actually think Pat Williams is a decent player comp though.....Hendricks will need a lot of development to get onto Pat's level, however.

 

[idiot]

Just got to say, the new triple team format where you have to get an email is trash. I signed up, but still can’t read the article I wanted to read. Wtf.

Anyways, a really brutal report on TH. Seems like the coach/players think he sucks. We can twist his rookie season into “part of the plan” all we want, and maybe they’re all wrong as well, but it’s not a good thing at all.

Signed up twice. Still haven't received an email.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Yeah, Pat started all 71 games he played in as a young 19 year old rookie and that team was actually trying to win. They traded for Vuc half way through to do so. Even if you don't think he was good, it's clear that Bulls believed in him which is why he would be untouchable. He got more minutes than Lauri lol. Getting complete opposite signs from TH....whose playing time is being seen as waving the white flag on this season.

I actually think Pat Williams is a decent player comp though.....Hendricks will need a lot of development to get onto Pat's level, however.

Wasn't trying to throw a comp per se... just saying low production on wings of Taylor's type is not going to plummet his trade value to half of a bad first like Ochai.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

The book on Taylor was he's a raw toolsy prospect. If he shows he has a ways to go it hurts his value. It won't kill it though. I also think he played his worst game last night. The other 6-7 game stint he had some ups and downs, but was mostly fine.

 

[KqWIN]

Wasn't trying to throw a comp per se... just saying low production on wings of Taylor's type is not going to plummet his trade value to half of a bad first like Ochai.

I just don't think Pat is very comparable in that sense. Pat was very promising early on and that's why he retained so much value. Is Ochai really that much of a different type than TH anyways? Unless you're talking about age wise. They are both, in theory, role player prospects who play a super valuable role.

Anyways, some comparable wings who are similarish to TH that come to mind are Ousmane Dieng and Ziaire Williams. I don't think it really matters what type of player you are. The only way for that value to not plummet is to play well.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I just don't think Pat is very comparable in that sense. Pat was very promising early on and that's why he retained so much value. Is Ochai really that much of a different type than TH anyways? Unless you're talking about age wise. They are both, in theory, role player prospects who play a super valuable role.

Anyways, some comparable wings who are similarish to TH that come to mind are Ousmane Dieng and Ziaire Williams. I don't think it really matters what type of player you are. The only way for that value to not plummet is to play well.

I think Ziare is a good comp but after his rookie year they were still quite high on him. He was given a very easy role (like we should do with Taylor) and was okayish in it. I don't think his value tanked until later. Dieng... shrug. He's not nearly as athletic as Taylor.

And yes age is a huge factor in the difference between him and Ochai. As well as just physical tools.

 

[default]

Hopefully he can become more like Pascal Siakam and less of a Jeremy Evans.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Long story short... if we were so short sighted that we looked to move Taylor this offseason we'd have many suitors willing to make that bet.

 

[KqWIN]

Long story short... if we were so short sighted that we looked to move Taylor this offseason we'd have many suitors willing to make that bet.

I think that's the same point @Saint Cy of JFC is making. I mean, it should be obvious that his value will continue to go down if he doesn't show growth and it will go up if he does.

This was the last year DA can get way with quitting on the team IMO. We should expect the Jazz to try to significantly upgrade their talent level and ability to win, if not.....man what are we even doing. If the Jazz do not believe in TH, it would be better to trade him sooner rather than later.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

I think that's the same point @Saint Cy of JFC is making. I mean, it should be obvious that his value will continue to go down if he doesn't show growth and it will go up if he does.

This was the last year DA can get way with quitting on the team IMO. We should expect the Jazz to try to significantly upgrade their talent level and ability to win, if not.....man what are we even doing. If the Jazz do not believe in TH, it would be better to trade him sooner rather than later.

If Lauri re-signs long term they can definitely do another round of sell-offs featuring Sexton/Clarkson/Dunn (assuming he gets re-signed to a team friendly deal).