The Lauri Thread

[KqWIN]

Wait... what do you think the offers were? I'm not even sure GS offered their full pick portfolio.

I still think a 3 team deal with Phoenix and KD or a deal to Detroit (but they may slow play things rather that rush) are the best opportunities.

I also share your concern on Ainge. He is patient to a fault and too value based at times. I can see him saying "we will get Lauri's value up over the first part of the year and move him in season" and then we mess up the 2026 draft pick a bit in the process. I think its only really a problem if we land Cooper as the other guys in the draft are more typical rookies and we can still execute a good tank while getting Lauri in a better position. Move Sexton/Collins and don't take back any real vets (or cut the ones you do). Manage back end of back to backs to make him look even more healthy.

I would guess that Lauri has lost like 25-33% of his value from last offseason. Because we don't really know what offers are out there its tough to do pick math on it. Now if we would have moved him after his AS year or with 1.5 years left on his deal... it might be like 50%+

I think the offers are what Shams said. It was all the picks w/o Podz. Kuminga in the deal, Moody not mentioned. Shams also said it could be Podz without all the picks, but idk if GSW would have ever actually moved Podz.

Regardless of what the offers really were, we're going to get a lot less now and that's what has made it a big mistake. If we were offered 4-5, we might get 1-2, but the real offer was more/less than that we're going to get more/less now.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I think the offers are what Shams said. It was all the picks w/o Podz. Kuminga in the deal, Moody not mentioned. Shams also said it could be Podz without all the picks, but idk if GSW would have ever actually moved Podz.

Regardless of what the offers really were, we're going to get a lot less now and that's what has made it a big mistake. If we were offered 4-5, we might get 1-2, but the real offer was more/less than that we're going to get more/less now.

I think there was some understanding that when they said all the picks it was like 2 picks and 2 swaps because of the other obligation they had. I thought I remembered Tony saying they hadn't opened up all the picks and the super swap element to me was what made it intriguing. I wonder if talked about loosely and then just never hashed out all the details. Just when you said 3 less picks I was like "I'm not quite sure there was three picks in there". I didn't care much about Kuminga as I think he's theoretical and the contract negotiations could be wild there.

We might end up getting 50% of whatever the offer really could have been. Its partly Lauri... its partly the new CBA really starting to impact things... and partly that it seems some of the star "comps" are off the all-time high amounts they were in the past.

I think it will be a three team deal if it happens with either Phoenix/Houston, Phoenix/Miami, OR I think he could end up in Milwaukee if the Bucks move Dame to Miami and really reconfigure things. In some of those scenarios we might extract value in part for smoothing out the salary components.

I think unless a great opportunity comes that we likely wait for an in-season move and focus on moving the other vets.

One other potential suitor... Portland. I wonder what if any plan they have there and if they view progress, even if its incremental, as the key to staying employed. Was just a stray thought I had.

 

[Coach Ellis]

I think it’s probably 50/50 that Lauri gets traded this offseason. I could definitely see it happening, but I think it’s a little dependent on what happens with JC/JC/Sexton. If the Jazz are going to trade Lauri, then they’d better plan on clearing the deck - because they’re going to need to exclusively play their young guys in order to preserve the tank and keep the pick. I could see them making some sort of consolidation trade for an expensive star from another team, and kick the salary can down the road a bit.

I’ve pretty much always thought that this upcoming offseason would be the one where they made moves to compete. . . but I’m not so sure about that anymore. Having all those expiring contracts is both a blessing and a curse. They’re going to need to do something this year.

 

[KqWIN]

I think there was some understanding that when they said all the picks it was like 2 picks and 2 swaps because of the other obligation they had. I thought I remembered Tony saying they hadn't opened up all the picks and the super swap element to me was what made it intriguing. I wonder if talked about loosely and then just never hashed out all the details. Just when you said 3 less picks I was like "I'm not quite sure there was three picks in there". I didn't care much about Kuminga as I think he's theoretical and the contract negotiations could be wild there.

We might end up getting 50% of whatever the offer really could have been. Its partly Lauri... its partly the new CBA really starting to impact things... and partly that it seems some of the star "comps" are off the all-time high amounts they were in the past.

I think it will be a three team deal if it happens with either Phoenix/Houston, Phoenix/Miami, OR I think he could end up in Milwaukee if the Bucks move Dame to Miami and really reconfigure things. In some of those scenarios we might extract value in part for smoothing out the salary components.

I think unless a great opportunity comes that we likely wait for an in-season move and focus on moving the other vets.

One other potential suitor... Portland. I wonder what if any plan they have there and if they view progress, even if its incremental, as the key to staying employed. Was just a stray thought I had.

Some uncooked Lauri ideas:

Kings - We should start a thread of different ways to take advantage of them.

Pelicans - Maybe add Lauri in to the DJ+picks idea

TOR - Barnes/Barrett/Ingram is awful. Barrett was once reportedly supposed to be the crown jewel of the Mitchell trade. I don’t like him but I could see a deal there.

IND - Maybe if they don’t want to commit to Turner and want Pascal as full time 5

ORL - Lauri would just be awesome there

 

[Step-Back Lauri]

I'll buy you all a beer when you visit Turku, Finland, if Lauri gets traded this summer. I've always said 2026 trade deadline is the first point it might happen unless Ainge gets exactly what he wants or an overpay. After this season, it's much less likely. I am almost sure they want to see if the 2025 pick is one of the rare early forces that might tightly fit with Lauri's end of his prime/first years of the contract after this one.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Some uncooked Lauri ideas:

Kings - We should start a thread of different ways to take advantage of them.

Pelicans - Maybe add Lauri in to the DJ+picks idea

TOR - Barnes/Barrett/Ingram is awful. Barrett was once reportedly supposed to be the crown jewel of the Mitchell trade. I don’t like him but I could see a deal there.

IND - Maybe if they don’t want to commit to Turner and want Pascal as full time 5

ORL - Lauri would just be awesome there

I've thought about a few of those. Kings would almost need to move one of Domas or Zach... but Walker would be the guy I think they would go for. They don't have vision. They like shortcuts. They would get Walker and be like BAM defense is FIXED! It might be a pretty good shortcut honestly.

Pelicans are interesting. They got Trey Murphy... Herb comes back... depends on what they are doing with Zion. They don't have a bunch of extra picks like they used to.

Toronto... what the hell are they doing? Nothing they do would surprise me because they just kinda do stuff. Barrett is not positive imo. He seems destined to put up numbers on teams that win 25ish games. I don't think I could watch him.

IND won't do the tax so I think they commit to Turner and offload Obi or McConnell/Mathurin. They have a little crossroads coming. Not sure the salary works for a team that refused to pay the tax.

Orlando would almost have to be Franz/Paolo/Suggs... they ain't trying to dive into the tax. IDK I guess I could see them trying for a year before Paolo getting spendy and then go a different route.

Already mentioned SA/Det/Mil/Mia/Phx

So there are a lot of options. Tho some are not super clean.

 

[NUMBERICA]

I'll buy you all a beer when you visit Turku, Finland, if Lauri gets traded this summer. I've always said 2026 trade deadline is the first point it might happen unless Ainge gets exactly what he wants or an overpay. After this season, it's much less likely. I am almost sure they want to see if the 2025 pick is one of the rare early forces that might tightly fit with Lauri's end of his prime/first years of the contract after this one.

I generally agree with this, unless Lauri is involved in a Durant trade.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

Locke is pushing two more years of tanking. It really does feel like Lauri will get traded and will never be part of the Jazz team that starts winning.

I listened. He mentioned keeping Collins/Sexton next year while doing this. Says they have been fine with it and have helped the young guys... Yeah I think that works until the contract year next year when they are trying to get their next deal and being a "company man" is gonna cost you potentially.

I think this is more Locke's idea of tanking and how long it should last. Not sure he represents (or knows) what the FO is thinking. Was more of a "if you want to tank it works but you have to be committed to it for 2 more years" type of message. It would be insane to try and tank the same way we have the next two years. Just set some of these guys free ya damn hoarder.

 

[KqWIN]

I really do believe Locke and pretty much every single reporter that the Jazz are in this tank for the long haul. It's also what I would decide to do if it were up to me. I still have the hardest time believing Ainge will take the L for his own stubbornness and accept something less for Lauri. It opens up the possibility for some really bad outcomes next season. If we don't trade Lauri, I think we're headed to where we were the two previous years. The young guys will continue to improve and we can't expect a tank performance like this 2x in a row.

 

[Tanktastic]

How much of his struggles you think are real vs tank is one thing....But I think it's a certainty that his trade value has dropped significantly. I wouldn't say he's negative, but we're not getting close to the packages we had preseason.

I would guess that Lauri has lost like 25-33% of his value from last offseason. Because we don't really know what offers are out there its tough to do pick math on it. Now if we would have moved him after his AS year or with 1.5 years left on his deal... it might be like 50%+

That's wildly, wildly optimistic.

The main piece in the puzzle being: he's owed $196M. The second part of course everything that happened this season. When the Jazz looks at his performance, they can go "it was the tanking". When any other GM looks at it, they'll have severe doubts.

I think it's somewhere in the Zach LaVine neighbourhood right now ie. one 1st and a couple of bit players that might be mildly useful, or not.

It takes only one buyer of course that believes in Markkanen. But those buyers have plenty of other options as well.

I can see a plausible scenario where Ainge tries to trade him this summer, again doesn't get his asking price, which has happened time and again, with Markkanen, with Collins, with JC. And for the good soldier that he has been, I doubt he's cool with another season like this one. Which could lead to then Ainge being forced to deal him to whomever puts up at least any 1st, no matter how bad.

 

[KqWIN]

I do think the potential buyers market for Lauri is really poor. Most teams are 1) Not interested in winning 2) Don't want to pay Lauri that kind of money 3) Can't trade due to cap mechanics. I'm sure there will be an offer or two out there that is positive value, but as great as a tanking season as this was we took a fat L for not trading Lauri in the summer.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

That's wildly, wildly optimistic.

The main piece in the puzzle being: he's owed $196M. The second part of course everything that happened this season. When the Jazz looks at his performance, they can go "it was the tanking". When any other GM looks at it, they'll have severe doubts.

I think it's somewhere in the Zach LaVine neighbourhood right now ie. one 1st and a couple of bit players that might be mildly useful, or not.

It takes only one buyer of course that believes in Markkanen. But those buyers have plenty of other options as well.

I can see a plausible scenario where Ainge tries to trade him this summer, again doesn't get his asking price, which has happened time and again, with Markkanen, with Collins, with JC. And for the good soldier that he has been, I doubt he's cool with another season like this one. Which could lead to then Ainge being forced to deal him to whomever puts up at least any 1st, no matter how bad.

I disagree that its wildlyx2 optimistic. Here is why:

- everyone last summer knew he needed a new deal and it wouldn't be cheap. So part of that was baked into his offers.
- Agree on how the Jazz and outsiders will likely disagree on why he has dipped.
- Zach had more concerns than Lauri imo. He has had multiple knee issues and Lauri had at least driven winning on a team prior to having the plug pulled. Its just a more unique skillset. Zach is also a couple years older and not 7 feet tall. Also had some attitude issues/clashes with coaches.

I'd be targeting a couple firsts (real, good, but maybe not primo) and neutral returning salary. Zach got kinda a real first... it was one they could control if they wanted, and bad but not trash salary.

I don't think we got offers at like 4 firsts last year. It was likely 2 pick, 2 swaps and a prospect. I think 25-50% is fair assessment on his decline in trade value. If its lower than that then I promise there won't be a deal anyway. Ainge will use the first few months of the season to prove Lauri is still the guy from a year or two ago and there is not a lot of downside if he doesn't. If he sucks his value stays low and the tank marches on. If he's good the offers should come but the tank may suffer. We can manage some of the other guys or move them (hopefully).