The *OFFICIAL* Russia Is About To Invade Ukraine Thread
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The Thriller
Well-Known Member
Does this change things? Does this force Putin to the negotiating table? Or does he have zero ****s to give and is going to turn Kyiv into Aleppo or Grozny?
Aleppo:
Grozny:
I would phrase this a bit differently. Putin objects to the conduct of UN members which violate the understanding of treaties which Russia has relied on. I believe he would consider reform of the UN and recognition of Russian security concerns an acceptable first step. I can't say where Putin would ever stop in reconstituting the USSR, but I believe it is impossible to occupy many areas of the former USSR without significant local support.This is a sobering interview with Fiona Hill about Putin, his mentality/plans, and the situation in Ukraine. Spoiler, don’t read it if you want a good night’s rest. Putin’s going to turn Kyiv into Grozny or Aleppo in the next few days.
‘Yes, He Would’: Fiona Hill on Putin and Nukes
Putin is trying to take down the entire world order, the veteran Russia watcher said in an interview. But there are ways even ordinary Americans can fight back.www.politico.com
Westerners generally find Asians, Chinese, "inscrutable", meaning they are so very fluid in their manners and speech you will hardly know what's going on in their heads.
Putin would agree to a withdrawal on terms of a treaty that restricts further expansion of NATO and "neutral" Ukraine that is not going to become an EU or NATO party.
Putin's forces have been inside Ukraine for days, really just looking for those terms.
If that doesn't work, I believe about half of Luhansk and Donetsk will remain "independent". There are some other pockets maybe, where Putin will harden his lines in a ceasefire.
I think China's involvement in negotiations will be favorable to Putin.
Putin's forces have been inside Ukraine for days, really just looking for those terms.
If that doesn't work, I believe about half of Luhansk and Donetsk will remain "independent". There are some other pockets maybe, where Putin will harden his lines in a ceasefire.
I think China's involvement in negotiations will be favorable to Putin.
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Even if I don't agree with some of this, it is as least a fair report of some quarters which needs to be understood.I found this to be a good piece to read in conjunction with the interview of Fiona Hill….
The Terrible Truth So Many Experts Missed About Russia
Vladimir Putin didn’t always rule his country alone. Now he does, and the dictator appears to care little about the consequences of his actions.slate.com
As was this:
No, You’re Not Imagining It: Russia’s Army Is Inept
But superior firepower still gives it an edge in the short run.
“All this aside, it is still possible—even likely—that, if the fighting goes on much longer, the Russians will overtake the Ukrainians, capture Kyiv, and possibly oust the current government. They’ve sent in only about two-thirds of the troops and weapons that had been poised on the Ukrainian border. Convoys of tanks are rolling in—however slowly—from the north, west, and south. They are joined, or are about to be joined, by Belarusian troops and Chechen special forces. As the resistance mounts and as the Russians’ offensive is thwarted, Putin and his generals can be expected to turn up the heat, shelling—and, recently, bombing—cities, destroying whatever they can destroy, for destruction’s sake. This is what the Russian military has done elsewhere, notably in Chechnya, when its officers feel frustrated. At some point, superior firepower will win out, at least in the short run.
But this doesn’t mean they will win in the long run. The resistance will continue, especially now that practically every nation in NATO is supplying Ukraine with weapons. Putin’s invasion has rallied Ukrainian nationalism, stiffened the West’s spine, and sent his own economy into a tailspin. Chaotic destructiveness can only go so far. It is not a winning technique for the long run against organized defenses. And the more Putin resorts to chaotic destructiveness, the more organized the defenses become”.
Our governor here in Utah has called Putin a "madman' and run "Utah stands wsith Ukraine" on the highway signage. I wouldn't think many people would object, either, to "Utah stands with the UN", but I think that's a wrong step.
If you want to negotiate a peace, you have to start with some gesture of respect and maybe even understand what it's all about. Well this is about it for me for a while.
Thank you.
People have their reasons. Just saying he believed the other narrative would normally be fairly healthy slice of any population. What you should worry more about is where there is only one narrative.
Inside Russia, people seem pretty careful not to upset authorities. We don't want that here....... well.... you shouldn't.
Hardly a "troll". he's been there over 7 years carrying a gun with separatist faction units.
A lot of Americans are apparently going over there now to fight for the Euromaidan revolution which overthrew a probably corrupt pro-Russian government, to sustain a "heroic" corrupt President who won on promises to end corruption, and who apparently does have a separatist faction opposed to him. From here, I can't see really, just how realistic the prospect of genocide is for those people. The Euromaidan thing was an overthrow of a pro-Russian "elected" president. I don't see this as really being resolved no matter who wins this war.
I don't think Putin gets beat without nukes.
As insane and unjustified as an attempt to just run over Ukraine with tanks may be, it's worse and even more insane to just run over even Putin's Russia. That's what escalation here means.
What I see is a full-court press to overthrow Putin. I think that has been the reason for Putin's belief that it's necessary to rebuild the USSR, so to speak.
It's all about the oil. Well, and other stuff.
The problem with any plan for global governance will always be either overt attempts to overthrow or eliminate top dogs, or subversive attempts to carve out some niche if not whole hog global power and wealth. We do this to Putin, and Xi will take note. He migt become more careful, and yet more determined to overthrow the UN world order than even Putin is.
I'm pretty sure the Brit/Am world order will see it's day come to an end, unless somehow it returns to some credible "rule of law" that doesn't just outrage significant slices of the world populace.
many serial wars, even global wars, continuing endlessly.
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Al-O-Meter
Well-Known Member
Unfortunately I doubt it. This invasion has cost Russia dearly. Any money made by the spike in oil prices has been consumed hundreds of times over with the collapse of the Ruble and divestment by nearly everyone on the globe. Their standing in the world has cratered as even formerly staunch Russian allies are now turning their backs. Their feared military has been exposed as they seem to have no answer for the Bayraktar TB2 drones which are too slow to be engaged by the Russian air superiority jets.
For all that cost in money, standing, and prestige, Russia has nothing to show for it. If Russia withdraws now it will cement that into history. I really want to be wrong. I really, REALLY want to be wrong but I fear things are about to get very ugly and I do not entirely discount the idea of a nuke being used before this is over.
Avery
Well-Known Member
A nuke is unimaginable, but impossible and improbable are two different things and you just never know with Putin.Unfortunately I doubt it. This invasion has cost Russia dearly. Any money made by the spike in oil prices has been consumed hundreds of times over with the collapse of the Ruble and divestment by nearly everyone on the globe. Their standing in the world has cratered as even formerly staunch Russian allies are now turning their backs. Their feared military has been exposed as they seem to have no answer for the Bayraktar TB2 drones which are too slow to be engaged by the Russian air superiority jets.
For all that cost in money, standing, and prestige, Russia has nothing to show for it. If Russia withdraws now it will cement that into history. I really want to be wrong. I really, REALLY want to be wrong but I fear things are about to get very ugly and I do not entirely discount the idea of a nuke being used before this is over.
I don't think he'll resort to a nuke as they'll just continue to firebomb and shell everything they can as 'everyday business' - dropping a nuke would signal the complete destruction of Russia and I think Putin is probably smart enough to know that.
I'm empathetic to the citizens of Russia who have no choice but to embroiled in the complete forthcoming collapse of their economy - every sanction, failed bank transaction and rubles being rendered moot will likely end more lives than the war before our eyes. Thanks Vlad.
The Thriller
Well-Known Member
I don’t have much sympathy for the Russian citizenry. They should be protesting in the 100s of thousands right now. The state cannot arrest that many people and it’ll probably push the oligarchs into replacing Putin. Sadly, I think there are only two realistic options:
1. Putin turns Kyiv into Aleppo and slaughters Ukrainian democracy. Zelensky probably won’t be alive much longer. Putin can’t afford to have him stay alive.
2. The Russian people hurt so bad that they’re compelled to riot ending with Putin’s head on a stick.
I’d prefer option 2. But unfortunately I think option 1 is going to take place.
The best time to have prevented this was probably in the late 90s and early 2000s. Yeltsin shouldn’t have promoted him. And the west Allowing Russia to empower a former KGB and tripping over themselves to do business in Russia no matter their stance on human rights was, was probably a bad idea. Unfortunate.
The Thriller
Well-Known Member
Ironic given that putin claimed this was a special operation to de-natzify Ukraine.
Over 30,000 Ukrainian Jews were slaughtered here in two days.
Over 30,000 Ukrainian Jews were slaughtered here in two days.
Avery
Well-Known Member
Definitely get your points, I fear their citizens fear Putin and his regime too much. You can't even protest basically without fear of being erased.
You are right though that if they full on revolted, they'd overthrow Putin and his government in a week - and I couldn't think of a sweeter end to Putin's life and career then his own eating him up.
It's really weird to think this but I could see Putin taking all of his anger out at the USA with nukes launched toward NYC. He's 69 years old and had a good run and all that. I wonder if there is anyone who could stop his order were he to give it.
The Thriller
Well-Known Member
You would hope so. But if he does this then Russia is gone too… and most of the world. I don’t think missile defense systems are set up to accurately stop nuclear ICBMs and Russia has thousands of those. Fortunately, we’ve been in similar tight spots like this before and things have worked out. The problem here is that Putin might be the one Russian leader completely detached from reality. He might not want an off-ramp. Lifting sanctions if he quits? It doesn’t seem like he gives a damn. And if he wants to leave Ukraine as a smoldering crater with Zelensky’s head on a stick, he can do that without even the use of nukes. We all hope that the Russian people stop him before doing that. But my faith in them doing so is pretty minimal. That’s why I’m rooting for these sanctions to hurt like hell and they act quickly to oust him. That would be a perfect end to his miserable life.
Are there any more planned peace or seize fire talks in the works?
This is a sobering interview with Fiona Hill about Putin, his mentality/plans, and the situation in Ukraine. Spoiler, don’t read it if you want a good night’s rest. Putin’s going to turn Kyiv into Grozny or Aleppo in the next few days.
‘Yes, He Would’: Fiona Hill on Putin and Nukes
Putin is trying to take down the entire world order, the veteran Russia watcher said in an interview. But there are ways even ordinary Americans can fight back.
That's a great article. Scary.
LogGrad98
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I don't know what response there would be if Putin launched any nukes. If he launched directly at the US we would retaliate, but I am not sure it would be with Nukes. We still understand the doctrine of mutually assured destruction, and our military is so massively strong that we could mete out nearly the same devastation without bringing on nuclear winter directly, and most of it remotely. But I think if he launched anything at the Ukraine we might see...nothing. Not sure we would intervene militarily in that circumstance either. I am feeling us being much more passive in this conflict. Not sure if that is good or bad.