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The *OFFICIAL* Russia Is About To Invade Ukraine Thread

Wow… anybody (Red?) have access to the full article?

www.thetimes.co.uk

This war will be a total failure, FSB whistleblower says

Spies in Russia’s infamous security apparatus were kept in the dark about President Putin’s plan to invade Ukraine, according to a whistleblower who described
www.thetimes.co.uk www.thetimes.co.uk


Here’s a link to the Twitter thread, with some interesting snippets, followed by the Unscroller of the thread:



threadreaderapp.com

Thread by @thetimes on Thread Reader App

@thetimes: A Russian whistleblower has described the war as a “total failure” that could be compared only to the collapse of Nazi Germany thetimes.co.uk/article/this-w… A report thought to be by an analyst in the FS...…
threadreaderapp.com threadreaderapp.com
 
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OK. Wild conspiracy theory time.

What if…

1. There were those in the FSB that wanted regime change…
2. That fed all sorts of inaccurate intelligence to Putin to make him believe Ukraine was easy pickin’s…..
3. That once the invasion started, Putin started to realize that he’s screwed…
4. That all of this will lead to a citizenship-driven regime change that topples Putin…
5. That there is some FSB faction/leader that will benefit greatly from this, and possibly inherit the Presidency?

I know, not realistic, but… how in the world does Putin do this without realizing how badly it would go? He had to have bad information. No sane person would do this and start an invasion of a country he couldn’t dream of holding if he did eventually conquer it.
 
I'd love for this to end with Putin gone, new leadership saying they never wanted this to happen, withdrawing without condition and giving Crimea back to Ukraine. I'd love for Putin to watch this from a prison cell and the response to the new regime from the world to be significant lifting of sanctions and the Russian economy taking off. Once he gets to see all of that they can go ahead and hang him.

It might be a fantasy but it would be nice.
 
gandalfe said:
The ruble is currently down to $0.0065 - That's .65 of a penny. Before the invasion, it was around 1.4, 1.3 cents. Putin has absolutely tanked his economy.
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In other words, buy rubles.
 
Gameface said:
We've been celebrating Ukrainian defiance and resilience in the face of an overwhelming military force. I think we're about to see the tragic reality that Russia has a MUCH larger military force and they are going to finally bring it to bear on the capital city and the city will fall to the Russians.

The very very sad part is about to start.
Click to expand...
Most of the writing I’m seeing from military experts believe that the Russian army is dissolving. They’re not advancing, they’re unable to keep their forces supplied, they don’t have the numbers to occupy major cities, and the longer this goes the greater drag it’s going to take on Russia. They have no economy. They have no way of producing tanks, bombs, and missiles.

Now sure, they can continue to shell cities. But that doesn’t exactly bring them closer to victory. Remember, Putin’s goal was to wreck democracy and install a puppet regime. Is that even possible anymore?
 
@Gameface a few interesting takes:





Russia wouldn’t be churning up this lame propaganda if the war was going well:




www.nytimes.com

Opinion | Russia Has Suffered a Crushing Moral Defeat. And Russians Know It.

For many Russians, the invasion of Ukraine is a visceral horror.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

Still doesn’t mean that Putin won’t try and raze Ukraine to the ground with artillery. Or try and kill a lot of people with chemical weapons. But his dream of installing a puppet regime and having this be a huge boon to his popularity domestically is most likely dead.
 
Russia’s economy is projected to contract 30-40 percent

www.reuters.com

JPMorgan: Shock to Russian GDP will be akin to 1998 crisis

JPMorgan said on Thursday it expected Russia's economy to contract 35% in the second quarter and 7% in 2022 with the economy suffering an economic output decline comparable to the 1998 crisis.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

Hard to conduct a war when you’re also in a depression.

www.reuters.com

JPMorgan: Shock to Russian GDP will be akin to 1998 crisis

JPMorgan said on Thursday it expected Russia's economy to contract 35% in the second quarter and 7% in 2022 with the economy suffering an economic output decline comparable to the 1998 crisis.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
Gameface said:
We've been celebrating Ukrainian defiance and resilience in the face of an overwhelming military force. I think we're about to see the tragic reality that Russia has a MUCH larger military force and they are going to finally bring it to bear on the capital city and the city will fall to the Russians.

The very very sad part is about to start.
Click to expand...


It was always going to happen. Ukraine pleading for a no fly zone was a sign that things on the ground were deteriorating.
 
Gameface said:
I'd love for this to end with Putin gone, new leadership saying they never wanted this to happen, withdrawing without condition and giving Crimea back to Ukraine. I'd love for Putin to watch this from a prison cell and the response to the new regime from the world to be significant lifting of sanctions and the Russian economy taking off. Once he gets to see all of that they can go ahead and hang him.

It might be a fantasy but it would be nice.
Click to expand...


It ends one of two ways for Putin, peacefully in bed or on the end of a noose.
 
Rubashov said:
It was always going to happen. Ukraine pleading for a no fly zone was a sign that things on the ground were deteriorating.
Click to expand...
And it just might continue to deteriorate. But that doesn’t mean the Russians will be able to govern or occupy Ukraine. Especially with sanctions tanking their ability to wage war or suppress domestic upheaval. Ukraine just needs to stay alive and be annoying. They’ll outlast the Russians. Not exactly reassuring to those suffering right now. But it’s hard to see Putin being able to govern or install a puppet regime after all of this resistance.

After nearly 20 years of failing to mold the Middle East with far better technology, money, manpower, and logistics, you’d think Americans of all people would understand the pickle Putin is in.

Could you imagine what would happen if Bush, Obama, Trump, Biden, etc tried to invade Afghanistan or Iraq AND install a puppet government WHILE most of the world leveled sanctions AND the American economy contracted 30-40 percent??? And uhhh our military industrial complex is far more advanced than Russia’s.
 
Rubashov said:
It ends one of two ways for Putin, peacefully in bed or on the end of a noose.
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I wish this were true. And it might be. But I think This is much harder to predict.

I’ve read that his oligarchs are still super wealthy. Technically, Putin is their bank account. As long as he lives and they stay on good terms with him, they have their wealth. That really complicates things.

Has the incentive structure changes for the oligarchs to turn on Putin yet?

Putin has surrounded himself with FSB security state people. You can see how they’ve taken over the place as Russia has quickly become one of the most closed off totalitarian states in the entire world. These guys are totally incentivized to keep Putin safe, free civic life be damned.

The Russian people might be the X factor here. What is their tolerance for totalitarianism? What is their tolerance for economic hardship? How will they learn what’s really happening if they don’t have access to independent media or internet?

In summary:
1. Not sure if the oligarchs will ever become poor enough to turn on Putin.
2. Putin has surrounded himself with disgusting security state people who are incentivized to make Russian totalitarian.
3. The Russian people could end this today. But they are already predisposed to be suspicious of the west and share grievances against Europe and America. How will they overcome these predispositions and pro Putin propaganda with the media structure found in Russia today? How can they organize in the North Korea like police state they’ve found themselves in? What’s their tolerance for suffering, is there a limit?
 
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Speaking of Putin and his power and what will happen, this is, I think, instructive, not in specific, but in general:

 
IMHO, i guess things are worse compared in different military installations than they were in Soviet Union period. A la fuel and equipment meant for a military people sold to the highest bidder and then some part of money went to the local chief and his cronies.
For those who have Facebook, i also recommend to read the posts (using translate option) of Teet Kalmus and Igor Taro.

Joke from the SU time period (obivously, it is better in russian language and better understandable for those who have had a chance to visit Russia or even served in Soviet army):

Medium size military installation somewhere in Russia. Local chief is rounding up recruits and asking about their skills. One of them responds "Hey boss, if you give couple of weeks without major military drills, then i will create a nice bubble-mubble-lator for you. It is pretty nice thing to have. OK, young conscript got the permission. After the deadline he was summoned to show the product. He took out a metal bucket, full of tiny holes in the bottom. He filled it with water and showed it to the chief and said "as you can see and hear, it makes bubbles and also has a nice bubbling sound". Obivously, chied was pissed and conscript was forced to clean toilets with a tooth brush (that was anyway a common thing in soviet army). The bucket landed near the fence of the military installation.
After some months there was a big inspection supervised by an elder high ranking military person. As usual in Soviet time and army, grass was painted green etc etc so everything looked nice and dandy on the surface. Inspection took some time and at the end when it was time to sip some vodka, the big boss said to the local chief: "Well, everything seems to be in order, except you have thrown away a perfectly working bubble-mubble-lator, which i found near the fence".
 
Good lecture about Russia by Finnish intel specialist. In finnish language, has subtitles. Recommended. I speak finnish so little bit easier for me.
 
leftyjace said:
Wow… anybody (Red?) have access to the full article?
Click to expand...
It was posted to Facebook, but will need a translation:



There are quite a few summaries, but I could not access the full article either….

www.dailymail.co.uk

Russia is facing 'total failure', whistleblower analyst claims

The over 2,000-word report said that Russia's forces have 'no options to victory, only defeat' as they continue to meet strong Ukrainian resistance.
www.dailymail.co.uk www.dailymail.co.uk

Edit: I was able to translate all of the statement, but having great difficulty pasting it here.
 
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Republicans: Joe Biden is a *****. He needs to ban Russian oil.
Also Republicans: Joe Biden is a bad president, look at the price of oil and gas. Vote Republican!

For me, paying a higher price of gas to wage an economic war in hopes that it staves off Putin's authoritarianism against Europe is much more preferable than a World War between nuclear powers. We've always fantasized about the sacrifices made by past generations to maintain peace and freedom in the world. Perhaps this is our sacrifice? Again, much more preferable than enduring winter at Valley Forge, dying in Gettysburg, or being shot up on the beaches of Normandy.
 
I'd just like to take a moment and say how great it is to see this forum, often divided, often conflicted and all too often making personal points and attacks can stand in unison that Putin and Russia have made an all-time miscalculation. And we all want to see it burn for him in the most cavalier of ways.

We're all going to feel the hurt from it from $5 gas, innocent civilians murdered and an economy crumbled for citizens in Russia which should never be an acceptable tradeoff, but the world will be a better place when Russia can be governed by a non-dictator and perhaps one day join us again at the seat of the big kids table.
 
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