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Tre Johnson Will Likely be The 5th Pick

Is Tre Key? Yes and no.

I absolutely believe in Tre to be a better shooter than Key. He is one of the best shooting prospects I can remember. You can’t take that away with him and it shouldn’t be an afterthought. The main way these two provide value is putting the ball in the hoop and I think Tre is flat out better.

But what about things besides shooting? I think Tre is very similar to Key in terms of defense and the little things. In fact, I think he’s a worse defensive prospect than Key was coming out Baylor. I have no good reason to think Tre will be even an average defender. He could be better than Key, but that is mostly because Key is one of the worst in the league and chances are that any player is better than one of the worst in the league.

What is another way they are different? Key can actually touch the paint. This manifests itself in Key’s relatively high FTr despite shooting a ton of 3’s. I don’t think Tre is as good at getting to the basket or FT line. The lack of rim pressure also limits Tre’s ability as a playmaker. I don’t think Key is a better passer, but he might be a better playmaker because he can collapse the defense more often.

At the end of the day, I think both will settle at the same spot. They will toe the line between being a 6th man or starter. If everything falls into play and/or their defense comes around, they can look at being starter+.
 
KqWIN said:
Is Tre Key? Yes and no.

I absolutely believe in Tre to be a better shooter than Key. He is one of the best shooting prospects I can remember. You can’t take that away with him and it shouldn’t be an afterthought. The main way these two provide value is putting the ball in the hoop and I think Tre is flat out better.

But what about things besides shooting? I think Tre is very similar to Key in terms of defense and the little things. In fact, I think he’s a worse defensive prospect than Key was coming out Baylor. I have no good reason to think Tre will be even an average defender. He could be better than Key, but that is mostly because Key is one of the worst in the league and chances are that any player is better than one of the worst in the league.

What is another way they are different? Key can actually touch the paint. This manifests itself in Key’s relatively high FTr despite shooting a ton of 3’s. I don’t think Tre is as good at getting to the basket or FT line. The lack of rim pressure also limits Tre’s ability as a playmaker. I don’t think Key is a better passer, but he might be a better playmaker because he can collapse the defense more often.

At the end of the day, I think both will settle at the same spot. They will toe the line between being a 6th man or starter. If everything falls into play and/or their defense comes around, they can look at being starter+.
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The hope is that Tre is outlier elite at shooting 3s. To a gamebreaking and efficiency breaking level. If Tre is that level of amazing at shooting then driving to the basket only needs to be good enough to be the counter to the crazy 3 point shooting.

He truly did carry the Texas offense on his back and somehow made it to the tournament. He scored 39 points on 14-28 in a game and lost. This might be a real situation where the team piled way too much on a Freshmen and he still somewhat met expectations. Compare that to a Rutgers team that had 2 Top 3 picks in Harper and Ace and disappointing.

I have a feeling that adding Tre Johnson to a Will Hardy offense could make him ridiculously good.
 
Basketball Novice said:
The hope is that Tre is outlier elite at shooting 3s. To a gamebreaking and efficiency breaking level. If Tre is that level of amazing at shooting then driving to the basket only needs to be good enough to be the counter to the crazy 3 point shooting.

He truly did carry the Texas offense on his back and somehow made it to the tournament. He scored 39 points on 14-28 in a game and lost. This might be a real situation where the team piled way too much on a Freshmen and he still somewhat met expectations. Compare that to a Rutgers team that had 2 Top 3 picks in Harper and Ace and disappointing.

I have a feeling that adding Tre Johnson to a Will Hardy offense could make him ridiculously good.
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I don’t disagree that this is the hope, but right off the bat you’re asking for an extreme outlier and game breaking player. I don’t see it as a good thing that a player needs to be one of a kind to make it work. Maybe Tre is that guy that completely breaks the mold, many of the elite guys are, but it’s not exactly unique to say that in extreme cases a prospect could be very good.
 
Basketball Novice said:
The hope is that Tre is outlier elite at shooting 3s. To a gamebreaking and efficiency breaking level. If Tre is that level of amazing at shooting then driving to the basket only needs to be good enough to be the counter to the crazy 3 point shooting.
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So, can you give an example of that type of player who is successful? Because I went through all 3-point volume shooters for this season and could find only two like that: Malik Beasley and Buddy Hield. All the rest are either good defenders, good playmakers or can easily penetrate and finish in the paint.
 
jazznik said:
So, can you give an example of that type of player who is successful? Because I went through all 3-point volume shooters for this season and could find only two like that: Malik Beasley and Buddy Hield. All the rest are either good defenders, good playmakers or can easily penetrate and finish in the paint.
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The high end, volume pull-up shooters who don’t attack the rim well would be guys like Herro, Murray, and McCollum. You’re putting yourself in hole by being a player that’s simply very bad at defense, then you’re putting yourself in another hole by being a guy who doesn’t attack the basket. It’s possible to be successful this way. I think you take a Murray//Herro level at 5 every day of the week, but you also have to remember that these guys are the near the peak of that type of player.

The more realistic path to stardom for Tre is not probably not being this incredibly exceptional player who changes everything we know about the game. It’s probably to start playing more like the actual stars play, but being able to attack the rim isn’t something so easily developed. If players could do that, they probably would have already been doing that.
 
There's no bigger red flag than "making lots of tough shots in college". For a true high level prospect, the college game should seem easy. There's only two or three guys like that in this draft.

One of them is VJ, who's not a volume scorer – just a different player type – but has the type of poise on the court you need in the NBA.
 
KqWIN said:
The high end, volume pull-up shooters who don’t attack the rim well would be guys like Herro, Murray, and McCollum. You’re putting yourself in hole by being a player that’s simply very bad at defense, then you’re putting yourself in another hole by being a guy who doesn’t attack the basket. It’s possible to be successful this way. I think you take a Murray//Herro level at 5 every day of the week, but you also have to remember that these guys are the near the peak of that type of player.

The more realistic path to stardom for Tre is not probably not being this incredibly exceptional player who changes everything we know about the game. It’s probably to start playing more like the actual stars play, but being able to attack the rim isn’t something so easily developed. If players could do that, they probably would have already been doing that.
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Your right that there is already a tried and true path to stardom but I don't think its good to be overly constrained by archetypes and player comparisons. The truly exceptional players break the mold and create their own style that can't be emulated. Its true that there are many parts of Tre Johnson's game that are underwhelming; He certainly doesn't project well as a defensive player or any type of all rounder kind of player. But what he does have is exceptional shooting both on ball and off ball.

We all know that in the modern NBA, 3s are king. Thats just how the math works out. And Tre is excellent at making 3s.

I don't know what Tre projects as at the NBA level, but whether he is an on ball guard who runs the show, or an off ball sharpshooter type, or something else, I believe his strength as a shooter is uncommonly good and will make him one of the best shooters in the league. What he grows into will be interesting to see but it should all be based on his central strength of shooting. Whether the rest of the soup comes together, he at least has the foundation to become an exceptional player.

While it might be wishful thinking on my part, I do hope Tre or whoever we pick at 5 has the capacity to become a mold breaking player.
 
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