What Happens if We Don't Trade for Al?
- Thread starter homeytennis
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twentytwo
Active Member
Gyp Rosetti
Banned
This sums it the **** up.
Millsap has a PER of 20.39 and Jefferson has a PER 18.24. Millsap has a +1.2 net +/- and Jefferson has a -12.5, a difference of 13.7 (that's absolutely massive). Those two indicators basically cover the spectrum of importance as fast as you can do it. Jefferson blocks more shots, so why is it that even though they're both starters and share the court most of the game, the defense is more than 10 points-per-100 better with Jefferson on the bench and the defense is 3 points-per-100 better with Millsap playing (a difference of 13.5 points)?
Even if you compare their most basic statistical numbers (which is what paints Jefferson in the most positive light), is Jefferson really worth ~$5 million more per year for basically the same numbers?
Gyp Rosetti
Banned
Maybe he has no plays run for him because he has the basketball IQ of a Toadstool. Dude seems slow as ****. And I'm not talking about his ability to rotate defensively.
GVC
Well-Known Member
Not my style.
The funny thing is that Jefferson has a higher usage rate than Millsap but makes less of his shots, gets to the line less, and has less range. But all of those isos Jefferson gets in the post, those don't count. Once the Jazz start running plays for <50% Jefferson, they'll start to win like all of his previous teams. Which to my understanding is a lot.
If anyone can figure out where I'm being serious and where I'm being sarcastic, you'll receive a hot rep injection.
Fishsticks
Banned
He is playing out of position in a new offense and you expect his eeficency rating to be off the charts? Milsap should be performing the way he has. If the Jazz move Sap for a wing and let Big al own the paint you will see what kind of player he can be.
His 'owning the paint' is overrated. He's done it on abysmal teams, and knowing the offense has nothing to do with how he rebounds (which is not good). He's played C for most of his career and nearly exclusively for the past few years (a big reason is to hide how bad [or slow] he is at defense, which I think is a big reason the Jazz play so much zone this year). Jefferson's played some good games recently so maybe he's starting to get it, but he's not exactly a genius or an adaptable player.
I've tried to get on the Al Jefferson train but it's a slow-moving one. I hope he learns how to produce and win someday.
The only reason I'd trade Millsap over Jefferson is because I think his trade value is significantly higher; he doesn't miss games, he's got a great b-ball IQ, he's a team-player, he's been productive/puts up very good averages [even if inconsistent], he's on a super-cheap contract because of his low cap number AND the Jazz paid $10 million of the bill up-front. Of course, for all of those reasons I'd prefer to keep Millsap instead of Jefferson if you have to get rid of one of them, but only if you can't get more with Millsap instead of Jefferson on the market.
billyshelby
Well-Known Member
I still think a lot of Al's problems have to do with adjusting to the offense. But the one thing he absolutely CAN to do right NOW is go harder after the offensive glass. At least 2 or 3 times every night I see him spectating or starting back when a shot goes up.
Not many teams in the league have 2 frontcourt players as good as we do even if neither are All Stars. That's an advantage. But we can't get the most out of it unless they're both trying to feast off each other's misses. They should get so many easy buckets off one another and they don't. The big key is Al recognizing Deron playing pick and pop with Sap or the P&R. He should be basically be breaking right with him without stepping on the play. But he's just not seeing these things yet.
Not many teams in the league have 2 frontcourt players as good as we do even if neither are All Stars. That's an advantage. But we can't get the most out of it unless they're both trying to feast off each other's misses. They should get so many easy buckets off one another and they don't. The big key is Al recognizing Deron playing pick and pop with Sap or the P&R. He should be basically be breaking right with him without stepping on the play. But he's just not seeing these things yet.
Just because Millsap comes cheap doesnt mean he is a starter caliber PF on a contender who can be the second option night in and night out. He has shown this season why he is just a little above a good role player. A Luois Scola type player as someone mentioned before. He can be a great sixth man for us.
You put a 6-8 and a 6-10 player out there in the frontcourt night in and night out, you should'nt be surprised when they get worn down or get beaten on the boards. Unless you are Rodman or Kevin Love you are not going to beat too many teams with that kind of size.
The ideal thing would be to have a true center starting alongside Al Jefferson. And a good shooting guard. Neither of this is going to happen anytime soon.
To be a starting PF, you have to be a 2nd option?
You're not giving Millsap nearly enough credit. Sustaining 18/8 for more than half a season as a role player (which he is) and doing so in ways that only help or don't disrupt the offense or defense is a tremendous achievement. To say that because he isn't a cornerstone on a contender means he's not worth anything is totally ****ing asinine.
Did you even read the post you're responding to? Did I say Millsap was untouchable?
On the Jazz you most likely are. When was the last time the Jazz had an offense in which the PF wasnt the first or second option?
This season the Jazz are asking Millsap to be the second or third option on all nights and on some nights he just doesnt have it.
Even if he isnt the second or third option he is still undersized on most nights. If Millsap HAS to be the starting PF, then we better have a 6-11 to 7-1 tall center banging down low in the post. As a tandem Al and Paul are undersized. "Big" Al seems to be a misnomer on quite a few nights. Like tonight, when he goes up against Bynum.
Millsap vs Gasol/Odom will also be fun to watch
That is an achievment for a role player. Much like Scola who is averaging 19/8 and yet no one is talking about him. And I did say that Sap is a good role player and a great sixth man to have.
Just not a starting PF on a team trying to be elite, whose offense runs mostly through the 4 spot
JAZZFAN_2814
Active Member
Al Jefferson, honestly, has been below-par.
Paul Millsap has been about on par.
One is what he is. A role player. His "on" stretches or nights will showcase him, statistically at least, as a near-star talent, but just as likely, or even more, he will look like a guy that has no business being a starting 4 on a contender (oh, wait...).
The other is...what...he was on a lotto team, or what he's shown for Utah?! Jefferson's biggest problem is, ipso facto, expectation-turned-on-court-expectorate. Jazz management moved on him to be a replacement for Boozer, not Laurel to Millsap's Hardy. Williams thought he could remold him into an all-star, or that the simple fact that he was on a new, playoff-level team would be enough to propel him on the national stage and provide that slot.
Expectation needs to be reality for him. Fairly or unfairly. He can't team with Millsap as a working-class twin tower, the D-League superstar. His stats have regressed, and the question becomes worth of skillsets.
On those levels, he's both questionable and exclamatory. On the latter point, one to one or versus, I'd rather have Jefferson than Millsap. Because, yes, as a base argument you can actually run plays through the guy...assuming he ever learns them. As a post player, he's in another strata from Paul. He's got the tools to create his own offense.
But can he facilitate for others? This is what's dogging him and, quite plausibly, is what is lowering his own offensive efficiency. It's not simply an issue of playing selfishly, but a-near inability to know when to play for his own shot or to dominate through presence and passing out of the post; on that point, the two sides combine, as he can't seem to read either the defense or his own team's playcalling on a consistent basis, he then becomes altogether timid. His own numbers are pedestrian to piss-poor, while the team vacillates between pure Flex and bumbling isolation.
And yet, the silver-lining is that, however unlikely -- and, remember, this has only been a half-season of play -- he could improve. And improve massively. From the standpoint of individual offense, he's the only credible secondary option to Williams.
That he's been so slow on the uptake is highly troubling. But that Utah has a player like Kirilenko that can't even run a lane when called to do so is in another level entirely; Jefferson's may be an airhead (troposphere) but Kirilenko is simply a space case (exosphere), particularly when you consider the number of games that the latter has played for this team, and the amount of money wasted in watching him do it.
Jefferson may be a moron, but that's not nearly as offensive as a player too full of himself to even try.
Between Kirilenko and Millsap, we know what the Jazz are. Jefferson remains a mystery, I think even to himself.
Sad to say, but that's about as good as it gets for this team, beyond Deron.
Paul Millsap has been about on par.
One is what he is. A role player. His "on" stretches or nights will showcase him, statistically at least, as a near-star talent, but just as likely, or even more, he will look like a guy that has no business being a starting 4 on a contender (oh, wait...).
The other is...what...he was on a lotto team, or what he's shown for Utah?! Jefferson's biggest problem is, ipso facto, expectation-turned-on-court-expectorate. Jazz management moved on him to be a replacement for Boozer, not Laurel to Millsap's Hardy. Williams thought he could remold him into an all-star, or that the simple fact that he was on a new, playoff-level team would be enough to propel him on the national stage and provide that slot.
Expectation needs to be reality for him. Fairly or unfairly. He can't team with Millsap as a working-class twin tower, the D-League superstar. His stats have regressed, and the question becomes worth of skillsets.
On those levels, he's both questionable and exclamatory. On the latter point, one to one or versus, I'd rather have Jefferson than Millsap. Because, yes, as a base argument you can actually run plays through the guy...assuming he ever learns them. As a post player, he's in another strata from Paul. He's got the tools to create his own offense.
But can he facilitate for others? This is what's dogging him and, quite plausibly, is what is lowering his own offensive efficiency. It's not simply an issue of playing selfishly, but a-near inability to know when to play for his own shot or to dominate through presence and passing out of the post; on that point, the two sides combine, as he can't seem to read either the defense or his own team's playcalling on a consistent basis, he then becomes altogether timid. His own numbers are pedestrian to piss-poor, while the team vacillates between pure Flex and bumbling isolation.
And yet, the silver-lining is that, however unlikely -- and, remember, this has only been a half-season of play -- he could improve. And improve massively. From the standpoint of individual offense, he's the only credible secondary option to Williams.
That he's been so slow on the uptake is highly troubling. But that Utah has a player like Kirilenko that can't even run a lane when called to do so is in another level entirely; Jefferson's may be an airhead (troposphere) but Kirilenko is simply a space case (exosphere), particularly when you consider the number of games that the latter has played for this team, and the amount of money wasted in watching him do it.
Jefferson may be a moron, but that's not nearly as offensive as a player too full of himself to even try.
Between Kirilenko and Millsap, we know what the Jazz are. Jefferson remains a mystery, I think even to himself.
Sad to say, but that's about as good as it gets for this team, beyond Deron.
The danger with casting your lot with Jefferson at the cost of Millsap (who until the last week was clearly the 2nd best player on this team) is that Jefferson's inability to read a defense or play in an offense can have a massively net-negative affect. Sure, if he ever figures those out, you keep him, but he's been in the league 8 YEARS and has never shown that he can do those things. His fundamentals were terrible when he came into the league and they're hardly better now. When will he learn? What will make him learn? I'll be the first in line to get my helping of Corvus if Jefferson can consistently show he's not just a moron out there, but he hasn't come close to that. Speak of Millsap's inconsistencies all you want, but if you're contrasting, Jefferson has been worse.
To be clear, I'm not advocating that either of them have to go. Millsap is a fantastic complement at the 4 with his ability to mesh in an offense (make the right pass, take shots in the flow, has range, can rebound the ball offensively) or a defensive scheme, but the 5 needs to be worthy of attention AND be able to capitalize on it consistently for Millsap's strength (complementary play) to play out. If anything, I'm not sure why Millsap isn't shooting more 3s. His stroke is pure and strong and he shows he's not afraid and can hit his shots on very strong numbers.
The bottom line is Jefferson needs to prove it. That's the key. If he does, no one has to go anywhere. I'm just skeptical.
To be clear, I'm not advocating that either of them have to go. Millsap is a fantastic complement at the 4 with his ability to mesh in an offense (make the right pass, take shots in the flow, has range, can rebound the ball offensively) or a defensive scheme, but the 5 needs to be worthy of attention AND be able to capitalize on it consistently for Millsap's strength (complementary play) to play out. If anything, I'm not sure why Millsap isn't shooting more 3s. His stroke is pure and strong and he shows he's not afraid and can hit his shots on very strong numbers.
The bottom line is Jefferson needs to prove it. That's the key. If he does, no one has to go anywhere. I'm just skeptical.