What is the main reason the Gobert/Conley/2nd Unit isn't doing as well this year?

[SoberasHotRod]

Our 2nd unit of Gobert/Conley/Clarkson/Ingles/Paschall is not nearly as dominant as last year's Gobert/Conley/Clarkson/Ingles/Niang lineups. This used to be our core strength and how we won many games, or opened up huge leads last year.

I'm not 100% sure what is going on, and have never created a poll before, so I'm starting this thread.

 

[Rubashov]

Clarkson will revert to norm all will be good again

 

[NAOS]

gotta go with Clarkson's struggles at this point. Looking at his TPA stat tells you everything you need to know. But Ingles needs to put up more threes, too.

 

[Tess Kapiko]

Chemistry. Oni played when Conley, Don or Ingles were out and we won all games. Slot him in there and give him confidence.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

It’s sample size and JC. Can’t shoot that ****** and that much and not hurt a lineup.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

-I don't think the sample size is too small. It doesn't seem probable that we would go from so regularly dominant to not in the amount of times these units have played already
- Paschall has played well, and I don't think teams are sagging off him too much to affect our spacing, yet.
- Seems like it's mostly a Clarkson struggling thing, but he went through hot and cold stretches last year and I don't think it really affected the dominance of that lineup.
- I went with other team's adjustments. It seems like they are managing their lineups differently and more starters are on the court against us in those minutes. They are probably game planning a bit against that lineup as well. Although, I think it's probably a combination of all these things.

 

[Archie Moses]

This is a clown question.

 

[Eminence]

Combo of all the above, can't pick just one. Clarkson has been ice cold, small sample size, Paschall has been not great.

 

[str8line]

Ingles and Clarkson are the reason we lost last night. If either one delivered even close to their normal play we win.

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[Jingled]

Mostly Clarkson struggles but it also feels like Joes usage is down quite a bit, his field goal attempts are down and it doesn't seem like we're running as many pick and rolls with him and Rudy.

 

[KqWIN]

The difference is in the offense. 120 offensive rating last year, just a 109 this year. It's easy to look at Clarkson and there's some truth to that, but he hasn't been as far off of last year as you would think. In this lineup last year, he had a 52% TS. This year it's 49% which is obviously worse, but not exactly something that would drop the lineup. The difference between Niang and Paschall comes at smaller volume of shots, but Niang was 60% TS compared to just 30% TS for Paschall. So yeah...big difference there. But at the same time, Joe is really propping up this unit with his shooting. He's at a ridiculous 91% TS which is really. Mike has also been shooting above his head in this unit so I don't think the shooting as a unit is where we can't point the blame. Clarkson and Paschall are shooting worse and will get better, Ingles and Conley will come back to earth.

Under further inspection, the real culprit is that this unit is turning over the ball like crazy. Last year the lineup turned the ball over 12.4 times per 100 possessions. This year it's 19 times per 100 possessions! That right there is making up most of the difference in offense. Gobert is the biggest difference here. Last year at 2.7 turnover per 100. This year 7.2 which is absolutely crazy. His offensive fouls have gone up from 0.16 to 3.27....which seems unbelievable.

On paper, the problem is turnovers and not poor shooting. I don't know how turnover variance compares to shooting variance, but I suspect that will normalize down the line. Maybe you can point to Paschall hurting the spacing causing turnovers, but it seems like a reach. Rudy has just been turning the ball over like crazy.

The other thing that has gone wrong is when Conley or Ingles have been out. Last year Oni stepped in and those lineups were even better. It's the main reason why I think he should still be on this team. This year, the combination of Oni/Butler/Forrest has not gone well. Last year we were +31 when Oni came in for one of those two. This year, we are -31.6 when one of those three have come in.

 

[SoberasHotRod]

The difference is in the offense. 120 offensive rating last year, just a 109 this year. It's easy to look at Clarkson and there's some truth to that, but he hasn't been as far off of last year as you would think. In this lineup last year, he had a 52% TS. This year it's 49% which is obviously worse, but not exactly something that would drop the lineup. The difference between Niang and Paschall comes at smaller volume of shots, but Niang was 60% TS compared to just 30% TS for Paschall. So yeah...big difference there. But at the same time, Joe is really propping up this unit with his shooting. He's at a ridiculous 91% TS which is really. Mike has also been shooting above his head in this unit so I don't think the shooting as a unit is where we can't point the blame. Clarkson and Paschall are shooting worse and will get better, Ingles and Conley will come back to earth.

Under further inspection, the real culprit is that this unit is turning over the ball like crazy. Last year the lineup turned the ball over 12.4 times per 100 possessions. This year it's 19 times per 100 possessions! That right there is making up most of the difference in offense. Gobert is the biggest difference here. Last year at 2.7 turnover per 100. This year 7.2 which is absolutely crazy. His offensive fouls have gone up from 0.16 to 3.27....which seems unbelievable.

On paper, the problem is turnovers and not poor shooting. I don't know how turnover variance compares to shooting variance, but I suspect that will normalize down the line. Maybe you can point to Paschall hurting the spacing causing turnovers, but it seems like a reach. Rudy has just been turning the ball over like crazy.

The other thing that has gone wrong is when Conley or Ingles have been out. Last year Oni stepped in and those lineups were even better. It's the main reason why I think he should still be on this team. This year, the combination of Oni/Butler/Forrest has not gone well. Last year we were +31 when Oni came in for one of those two. This year, we are -31.6 when one of those three have come in.

Thanks! What is the difference between defensive ratings between the two groups? Where do you find lineup specific stats?

 

[Release the Kraken]

With Niang gone, we lack automatic spot up shooters. Paschal is not Niang in that respect, though overall he has been playing well for us. When we don’t hit that shot our spacing goes to ****. Seems like Clarkson is trying to overcompensate leading to poor shot selection then a lack of confidence. Niang was special in his ability to spot up and stroke the three - and a quick release, we miss that. Hopefully the return of Rudy Gay will cure all ills. Anyway that’s my take.

 

[campaignist]

So i think it's two of the options: Integrating Paschall and losing Niang, and teams scheming against us better.

Niang and Paschall had pretty different play styles, and Paschall adds a dynamic that hasn't been there in years. He's great at penetration, passing, and hustle plays, but inconsistent on other things like shooting.
Niang is the inverse of that in a lot of ways. He looks good in flashes, but it will still take time to adapt.

Then teams have figured out more ways to counter the bench. It's a big reason the shooting has been poor.

Since the team is shooting worse on the whole, I don't know if Clarkson is specifically the problem, because again, defenses have more counters to our offense.

 

[KqWIN]

Thanks! What is the difference between defensive ratings between the two groups? Where do you find lineup specific stats?

I’m away from my computer now, but off the top of my head it was 105 last year and 101 this year.

All of these numbers are from pbpstats.com. The UI is a little hard to get used to, but I can’t recommend that site enough.

 

[NUMBERICA]

It bears mentioning that teams are switching more this regular season which ****s of the chain of events that leads to hitting Gobert on the PnR and passing in general. Guys are trying to beat the opponent on the switch more frequently which is technically the correct thing to do. My biggest quibble with that is mismatches at one position is a mismatch on another, and the Jazz are just letting fruit rot in the vine by not even trying to have Gobert go at a dude >6 inches shorter and >30 pounds lighter than him. I wouldn’t dream of asking that of him except in the question of mismatches, and at a certain point, the only way he develops that skill is with reps.

This links with Clarkson’s struggles because he loves nothing more than going HAM 1 on 1, but if the shot isn’t falling, the offense is DOA with him on the floor.

I don’t know what’s so offensive about acknowledging simple reality with Clarkson (right now especially). If you allocate a few dog-**** Clarkson shots to an Ingles 3 or a Gobert anything the Jazz might be undefeated.

 

[LogGrad98]

I think we'll be fine

 

[str8line]

Niang was special as a spot up 3 shooter but Paschal brings a physicality that we've been missing. Our shooters need to make their 3's while Paschal makes the gritty hustle plays.

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[LogGrad98]

Niang was special as a spot up 3 shooter but Paschal brings a physicality that we've been missing. Our shooters need to make their 3's while Paschal makes the gritty hustle plays.

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This. With paschall we give up 3pt shooting but gain in literally every other facet. It's a net gain. Considering our offense is built on the 3, the fact that we cannot hit the 3 is crippling us.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

It bears mentioning that teams are switching more this regular season which ****s of the chain of events that leads to hitting Gobert on the PnR and passing in general. Guys are trying to beat the opponent on the switch more frequently which is technically the correct thing to do. My biggest quibble with that is mismatches at one position is a mismatch on another, and the Jazz are just letting fruit rot in the vine by not even trying to have Gobert go at a dude >6 inches shorter and >30 pounds lighter than him. I wouldn’t dream of asking that of him except in the question of mismatches, and at a certain point, the only way he develops that skill is with reps.

This links with Clarkson’s struggles because he loves nothing more than going HAM 1 on 1, but if the shot isn’t falling, the offense is DOA with him on the floor.

I don’t know what’s so offensive about acknowledging simple reality with Clarkson (right now especially). If you allocate a few dog-**** Clarkson shots to an Ingles 3 or a Gobert anything the Jazz might be undefeated.

It’s not. I just always pledge my undying support for JC even though it has been tough lately. His struggles are causing some issues for sure and it’s fair to question how big his role should be on a championship team. I do see him trying to play better defense and play with the pass a little more here and there. It’s more of a tongue-in-cheek support.