I went back through a sampling of a decade of first round picks. I started with 2004 because that was the first year there were 30 first round picks, so it made it easier for rounding purposes. I figured ending at 2013 is appropriate because they’re now in their 5th year so we have a relatively decent idea of career trajectories. I stopped at anything before the tenth pick (including the 10th pick was generous), and my argument isn’t even giving up a pick in the 10-15 range but I felt including it is helpful for context. I went through and identified the people I thought were impact players. Some of these are awfully generous (Spencer Hawes, Thabo [he’s had a solid career and love him but if he hadn’t played here nobody would mention him], DeMarre [same thing], Burks [for teh lolz], Taj Gibson, Patrick Patterson, etc.). Certainly there may be people that guys like or favor (feel free to peruse the lists yourselves), but I think I threw in enough other guys who really shouldn’t have been on the list to account for any of that.
I’ve put an asterisk next to anyone who has been an all-star, made any of the three all-NBA teams, or made a defensive team.
2004
15 Al Jefferson *
18 JR Smith
20 Jameer Nelson *
25 Tony Allen *
26 Kevin Martin
2005
10 Bynum *
17 Danny Granger *
30 David Lee *
2006
11 Reddick
13 Thabo
21 Rondo
2007
10 Spencer Hawes
15 Rodney Stuckey
16 Nick Young
22 Jared Dudley
23 Wilson Chandler
26 Aaron Brooks
27 Arron Afflalo
2008
10 Brook Lopez
17 Roy Hibbert
21 Ryan Anderson
24 Serge Ibaka *
25 Nic Batum
26 George Hill
2009
10 Brandon Jennings
17 Jrue Holiday *
18 Ty Lawson
19 Jeff Teague *
26 Taj Gibson
27 DeMarre Carrol
2010
10 Paul George *
14 Patrick Patterson
18 Eric Bledsoe
19 Avery Bradley *
2011
11 Klay *
12 Burks
15 Kawhi *
16 Vucevic
22 Faried
23 Mirotic [ironic]
24 Reggie Jackson
30 Jimmy Butler *
2012
10 Austin Rivers
20 Evan Fournier
2013
10 CJ McColum
15 Giannis *
17 Schröder
27 Gobert *
If you break down these numbers of “impact players” by draft position then you’ve got:
10-30: 48/200 = 24%
15-30: 36/150 = 24%
20-30: 21/100 = 21%
If we break down the number off all-stars/all-NBA/all defense guys, then these are the numbers:
10-30: 16/200 = 8%
15-30: 13/150 = 8.67%
20-30: 6/100 = 6%
Obviously drafting isn’t completely just chance as there’s certainly a variable of skill involved in evaluation and everyone is fairly confident with the FO (as am I), but even with the franchise scouting variable, a large part of the equation still goes way beyond the franchise’s ability to forecast.
I think when people conceptualize trading our pick, the hesitation is the possibility of missing out on the all-star (and other) quality guys. I wouldn’t give up a pick less than 20 (well, let’s be real, I’d give up any pick beyond 14), but I think a 20-30 pick gets it done. Historically, landing an all-star in that range from this sample is 6%, and of those six guys you’re including Jameer, Tony Allen, David Lee, Ibaka, Butler, and Gobert.
The chance of us landing a Mitchell or Gobert in the 20s is possible, and generalizing the last year to all drafts would provide evidence for that, but larger samples don’t really support that being more than a large outlier.
I give up a 20-30 pick without thinking twice. I give up a 15-20 pick after thinking twice. I do it for a pick this summer or next.
I kind of feel like we bought a powerball ticket and someone’s offering us $2k before the number reveal and everyone thinks “OMG we’re giving up the chance to win the powerball!”
