Is Anything Going to Happen Tomorrow?

[SCS]

That's not weird.

How so?

When the tank was desperately needed before, people didn't want it. When it's not a necessity to tank now, people are thirsty for it. Before it was all about having a decent team. Now it's all about championships.

Seems weird to me.

 

[The Midnight]

Watching the T'Wolves thrash Portland today makes me forget all those years T'Wolves were crap. Now they're absolutely amazing with young talent to burn.


We need this tank to happen.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

How so?

When the tank was desperately needed before, people didn't want it. When it's not a necessity to tank now, people are thirsty for it. Before it was all about having a decent team. Now it's all about championships.

Seems weird to me.

Jazz fans wanted to keep Hayward because he was an All-Star.

Jazz fans want to tank so they can get a player who can become a future All-Star.

So fans were just picking the option that either gave them an All-STar or let them keep an All-Star. We thought we could keep Hayward, we were wrong. Doesnt make it weird.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Watching the T'Wolves thrash Portland today makes me forget all those years T'Wolves were crap. Now they're absolutely amazing with young talent to burn.


We need this tank to happen.

Sure, but only one player is a result of any kind of tank. And they werent really tanking, they just sucked. It wasnt on purpose at all. They are like "The Room" of teams. Really, they only got good when they pushed the chips in and made deals.

 

[The Midnight]

Sure, but only one player is a result of any kind of tank. And they werent really tanking, they just sucked. It wasnt on purpose at all. They are like "The Room" of teams. Really, they only got good when they pushed the chips in and made deals.

Um.. they turned Lavine + Dunn + Markanen into Jimmy Butler. They got those from years of just being crap that's true, but the result is the same as tanking, i.e., better draft picks and players.

 

[Handlogten's Heros]

I went back through a sampling of a decade of first round picks. I started with 2004 because that was the first year there were 30 first round picks, so it made it easier for rounding purposes. I figured ending at 2013 is appropriate because they’re now in their 5th year so we have a relatively decent idea of career trajectories. I stopped at anything before the tenth pick (including the 10th pick was generous), and my argument isn’t even giving up a pick in the 10-15 range but I felt including it is helpful for context. I went through and identified the people I thought were impact players. Some of these are awfully generous (Spencer Hawes, Thabo [he’s had a solid career and love him but if he hadn’t played here nobody would mention him], DeMarre [same thing], Burks [for teh lolz], Taj Gibson, Patrick Patterson, etc.). Certainly there may be people that guys like or favor (feel free to peruse the lists yourselves), but I think I threw in enough other guys who really shouldn’t have been on the list to account for any of that.


I’ve put an asterisk next to anyone who has been an all-star, made any of the three all-NBA teams, or made a defensive team.


2004

15 Al Jefferson *
18 JR Smith
20 Jameer Nelson *
25 Tony Allen *
26 Kevin Martin


2005

10 Bynum *
17 Danny Granger *
30 David Lee *


2006

11 Reddick
13 Thabo
21 Rondo


2007

10 Spencer Hawes
15 Rodney Stuckey
16 Nick Young
22 Jared Dudley
23 Wilson Chandler
26 Aaron Brooks
27 Arron Afflalo


2008

10 Brook Lopez
17 Roy Hibbert
21 Ryan Anderson
24 Serge Ibaka *
25 Nic Batum
26 George Hill


2009

10 Brandon Jennings
17 Jrue Holiday *
18 Ty Lawson
19 Jeff Teague *
26 Taj Gibson
27 DeMarre Carrol


2010

10 Paul George *
14 Patrick Patterson
18 Eric Bledsoe
19 Avery Bradley *


2011

11 Klay *
12 Burks
15 Kawhi *
16 Vucevic
22 Faried
23 Mirotic [ironic]
24 Reggie Jackson
30 Jimmy Butler *


2012

10 Austin Rivers
20 Evan Fournier


2013

10 CJ McColum
15 Giannis *
17 Schröder
27 Gobert *


If you break down these numbers of “impact players” by draft position then you’ve got:


10-30: 48/200 = 24%

15-30: 36/150 = 24%

20-30: 21/100 = 21%


If we break down the number off all-stars/all-NBA/all defense guys, then these are the numbers:


10-30: 16/200 = 8%

15-30: 13/150 = 8.67%

20-30: 6/100 = 6%


Obviously drafting isn’t completely just chance as there’s certainly a variable of skill involved in evaluation and everyone is fairly confident with the FO (as am I), but even with the franchise scouting variable, a large part of the equation still goes way beyond the franchise’s ability to forecast.


I think when people conceptualize trading our pick, the hesitation is the possibility of missing out on the all-star (and other) quality guys. I wouldn’t give up a pick less than 20 (well, let’s be real, I’d give up any pick beyond 14), but I think a 20-30 pick gets it done. Historically, landing an all-star in that range from this sample is 6%, and of those six guys you’re including Jameer, Tony Allen, David Lee, Ibaka, Butler, and Gobert.


The chance of us landing a Mitchell or Gobert in the 20s is possible, and generalizing the last year to all drafts would provide evidence for that, but larger samples don’t really support that being more than a large outlier.


I give up a 20-30 pick without thinking twice. I give up a 15-20 pick after thinking twice. I do it for a pick this summer or next.

I kind of feel like we bought a powerball ticket and someone’s offering us $2k before the number reveal and everyone thinks “OMG we’re giving up the chance to win the powerball!”

Good work. Feels like more reason to tank and get inside the top 10 doe.

I get the argument but it is short sighted. Mirotic bails in a year and a half and you blew 7 years of potential team control on a player to get a little better while DM is just getting started.

There is a reason teams are getting more stingy with first round picks. Add in that the draft is the only way teams like us build contenders and it is like buying a new car on high interest credit cards... be fun for a little while but hurt you in the long run.

There is no reason to overpay for Niko. Wait them out or pass.

 

[framer]

Um.. they turned Lavine + Dunn + Markanen into Jimmy Butler. They got those from years of just being crap that's true, but the result is the same as tanking, i.e., better draft picks and players.

The Wolves haven't been to the playoffs for 15 years. I'm not sure that I am ready to crown them as an example of "How things are done."

 

[framer]

Good work. Feels like more reason to tank and get inside the top 10 doe.

I get the argument but it is short sighted. Mirotic bails in a year and a half and you blew 7 years of potential team control on a player to get a little better while DM is just getting started.

There is a reason teams are getting more stingy with first round picks. Add in that the draft is the only way teams like us build contenders and it is like buying a new car on high interest credit cards... be fun for a little while but hurt you in the long run.

There is no reason to overpay for Niko. Wait them out or pass.

Is there a single person that says that we should give up a lottery pick for Niko? I'm pretty sure that is a unanimous "no." Utah is finally at the point where players want to come here, If we can get a player at a position of need for a protected pick or less, you probably need to do that. It is important to remember that not every draft is like last years draft. "Team control" over a mediocre player is kind of overrated, especially as a breakout player in their first 4 years is pretty rare. More players develop like Hayward than like Mitchell, including Gobert.

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

Um.. they turned Lavine + Dunn + Markanen into Jimmy Butler. They got those from years of just being crap that's true, but the result is the same as tanking, i.e., better draft picks and players.

They werent trying to tank tho

 

[Saint Cy of JFC]

No tank last that long. They just sucked ***. Never tell us to follow the Wolves.

 

[infection]

Good work. Feels like more reason to tank and get inside the top 10 doe.

I get the argument but it is short sighted. Mirotic bails in a year and a half and you blew 7 years of potential team control on a player to get a little better while DM is just getting started.

There is a reason teams are getting more stingy with first round picks. Add in that the draft is the only way teams like us build contenders and it is like buying a new car on high interest credit cards... be fun for a little while but hurt you in the long run.

There is no reason to overpay for Niko. Wait them out or pass.

But my belief is that a top 20 protected gets it done. Yeah, Niko could leave in a year and a half, but we’d have his early bird rights, we’d be on the upswing, and I don’t think he’d find a more perfect fit. Of course there’s no way of knowing but we’re guessing here, just like we’re guessing that the guy we draft would be worth having 7 years of control over.

 

[Thee Idiotic Minivan K]

Is there a single person that says that we should give up a lottery pick for Niko? I'm pretty sure that is a unanimous "no." Utah is finally at the point where players want to come here, If we can get a player at a position of need for a protected pick or less, you probably need to do that. It is important to remember that not every draft is like last years draft. "Team control" over a mediocre player is kind of overrated, especially as a breakout player in their first 4 years is pretty rare. More players develop like Hayward than like Mitchell, including Gobert.

Isn't Niko play a position of need? And there's a very good chance that what we pick won't be as good, and like u said players might want to play here.

Even if we are trading a lotto pick, I don't see how that hurts. Once we have Niko we concentrate on upgrading pg. let's not forget that O'Neale is showing promise, IMO I think he will be ready to start in a year or two.

Exum or new pg
Mitchell
O'Neale
Niko
Gobert

As good as Mitchell is now, just think, he's only going to get better. We could end up having four good to elite defenders at their positions.

This lineup has potential as a great two way lineup, with four defensive studs in place, I think that erases Niko's lack of defense, while he makes the offense that much better and makes Gobert that much more affective on that end.

 

[fishonjazz]

I went back through a sampling of a decade of first round picks. I started with 2004 because that was the first year there were 30 first round picks, so it made it easier for rounding purposes. I figured ending at 2013 is appropriate because they’re now in their 5th year so we have a relatively decent idea of career trajectories. I stopped at anything before the tenth pick (including the 10th pick was generous), and my argument isn’t even giving up a pick in the 10-15 range but I felt including it is helpful for context. I went through and identified the people I thought were impact players. Some of these are awfully generous (Spencer Hawes, Thabo [he’s had a solid career and love him but if he hadn’t played here nobody would mention him], DeMarre [same thing], Burks [for teh lolz], Taj Gibson, Patrick Patterson, etc.). Certainly there may be people that guys like or favor (feel free to peruse the lists yourselves), but I think I threw in enough other guys who really shouldn’t have been on the list to account for any of that.


I’ve put an asterisk next to anyone who has been an all-star, made any of the three all-NBA teams, or made a defensive team.


2004

15 Al Jefferson *
18 JR Smith
20 Jameer Nelson *
25 Tony Allen *
26 Kevin Martin


2005

10 Bynum *
17 Danny Granger *
30 David Lee *


2006

11 Reddick
13 Thabo
21 Rondo


2007

10 Spencer Hawes
15 Rodney Stuckey
16 Nick Young
22 Jared Dudley
23 Wilson Chandler
26 Aaron Brooks
27 Arron Afflalo


2008

10 Brook Lopez
17 Roy Hibbert
21 Ryan Anderson
24 Serge Ibaka *
25 Nic Batum
26 George Hill


2009

10 Brandon Jennings
17 Jrue Holiday *
18 Ty Lawson
19 Jeff Teague *
26 Taj Gibson
27 DeMarre Carrol


2010

10 Paul George *
14 Patrick Patterson
18 Eric Bledsoe
19 Avery Bradley *


2011

11 Klay *
12 Burks
15 Kawhi *
16 Vucevic
22 Faried
23 Mirotic [ironic]
24 Reggie Jackson
30 Jimmy Butler *


2012

10 Austin Rivers
20 Evan Fournier


2013

10 CJ McColum
15 Giannis *
17 Schröder
27 Gobert *


If you break down these numbers of “impact players” by draft position then you’ve got:


10-30: 48/200 = 24%

15-30: 36/150 = 24%

20-30: 21/100 = 21%


If we break down the number off all-stars/all-NBA/all defense guys, then these are the numbers:


10-30: 16/200 = 8%

15-30: 13/150 = 8.67%

20-30: 6/100 = 6%


Obviously drafting isn’t completely just chance as there’s certainly a variable of skill involved in evaluation and everyone is fairly confident with the FO (as am I), but even with the franchise scouting variable, a large part of the equation still goes way beyond the franchise’s ability to forecast.


I think when people conceptualize trading our pick, the hesitation is the possibility of missing out on the all-star (and other) quality guys. I wouldn’t give up a pick less than 20 (well, let’s be real, I’d give up any pick beyond 14), but I think a 20-30 pick gets it done. Historically, landing an all-star in that range from this sample is 6%, and of those six guys you’re including Jameer, Tony Allen, David Lee, Ibaka, Butler, and Gobert.


The chance of us landing a Mitchell or Gobert in the 20s is possible, and generalizing the last year to all drafts would provide evidence for that, but larger samples don’t really support that being more than a large outlier.


I give up a 20-30 pick without thinking twice. I give up a 15-20 pick after thinking twice. I do it for a pick this summer or next.

I kind of feel like we bought a powerball ticket and someone’s offering us $2k before the number reveal and everyone thinks “OMG we’re giving up the chance to win the powerball!”

Nice research. I really like the metaphor at the end and agree completely with it.

 

[fishonjazz]

Certain members of the Jazzfanz community in Summer 2016: No we don't need to trade Hayward for a top pick, even if that pick turns out to be a star player (even though we needed it) We're not worried about championships. Let's just have a good team. I don't want to tank and bake the cake again.

Same members of the Jazzfanz community in 2018: Tank, tank, tank, tank, tank. We need to tank. (even though we have two superstars already) It's about championships.

Jazzfanz is a weird place lol.

I always wanted to trade Hayward for a top pick.

 

[fishonjazz]

Good work. Feels like more reason to tank and get inside the top 10 doe.

I get the argument but it is short sighted. Mirotic bails in a year and a half and you blew 7 years of potential team control on a player to get a little better while DM is just getting started.

There is a reason teams are getting more stingy with first round picks. Add in that the draft is the only way teams like us build contenders and it is like buying a new car on high interest credit cards... be fun for a little while but hurt you in the long run.

There is no reason to overpay for Niko. Wait them out or pass.

Seems you are just counting mirotic as gone after his contract is up. Why is that? Wouldn’t we have an opportunity to re-sign him?

 

[cowhide]

If the Jazz are going to give up a first then it should have a lot of protection. There is no way that the Jazz should give up a lottery pick for Mirotic who can leave in a year and half. Jazz need to hit another home run in this draft. The potential is there in this draft especially if the Jazz don't make the playoffs. I am not for losing on purpose but right now this team is not very good without Gobert and Exum and now Thabo.

THe Jazz have some decisions to make moving forward, one is what to do with Favors, Rubio, Hood, Exum and Burks. I think Burks is gone and so is Favors so why not try to package them for picks and a position of need. Personally, I would try keeping both Hood and Exum at the right price. I would try to get rid of Rubio or just let him walk after next year. If I have to choose between Hood and Exum, I would trade Hood simply because he has more value than Exum at this time. Besides, I want to see Exum and DM play together. THey both can play PG/SG and I still believe Exum can be a very good player in this league if he can stay healthy. I am hopeful the Jazz can tweak their roster and get everyone healthy to move back up into the divisional race and be a solid playoff team next year. Then perhaps in 2 to 3 years they can start contending again.

 

[framer]

Seems you are just counting mirotic as gone after his contract is up. Why is that? Wouldn’t we have an opportunity to re-sign him?

Cuz Salt Lake City doesn't have enough strip clubs, doe!

 

[framer]

Ultimately, if Mirotic gets traded today, it is because someone is overpaying. If no one bites, the field starts tipping toward the Jazz. Best case for him coming to the Jazz is that nothing happens with Mirotic today.

 

[♪alt13]

The Jazz need to tank and get Mirotic. So many other teams have shamelessly tanked. The Jazz shouldn't feel bad. Sit Gobert for the rest of the season. Get Exum back and play Rubio/Exum in the 4th. Play JJ at the 5. #noshame

 

[infection]